First time Stage 1 clearers/redemption runs in 40

[dakohosu]

Who do you think will either:
- Clear for the first time or
- Clear for the first time in a while (let’s say more than 2-3 years)
….in Sasuke 40?

Give your reasons why.

Also, please don’t comment any random celebrities who’ve never competed before or old faces who have an almost zero chance of competing. You know who you are. Regulars and recent competitors only.

[sasukewarrior333]

Clear for the first time: Matsuda and Ayano have a solid chance to do it. If his 39 performance was anything to go by then Kyan also has a chance, though he'd definitely need to train for the Warped Wall.

Clear for the first time in a while: Tomo I think will do it as long as the wall is dry and he also has a reasonable chance of getting to the Vertical Limit if he has a really good day. Darvish I also think can do it. Takeru I think will do it as his performance in 39 was great and he'd have done it if it wasn't for the rain. Shingo has a chance if he gets the Glider down as his leg power is still really impressive and his stamina is great for his age. Tsukada may have a small chance as he is capable of defeating the DG and he might be able to defeat the wall.

That's all I got for now. I'm listing people who I think have a chance mind you, not saying all of these people will clear.

And yes, I'm presuming no rain or weather problems.

[brz0ny]

I will go for a very left field one and say Kawaguchi.

Okay jokes aside, there are obvious candidates like the ones person above me named and I really cant think of anyone else he hasnt named who could stand a chance. I guess Nagano might still be able to beat it if Takeda could but I really dont see that happening.

[dakohosu]

Jul 18, 2022 15:03:51 GMT -5 sasukewarrior333 said:

Clear for the first time: Matsuda and Ayano have a solid chance to do it. If his 39 performance was anything to go by then Kyan also has a chance, though he'd definitely need to train for the Warped Wall.

Clear for the first time in a while: Tomo I think will do it as long as the wall is dry and he also has a reasonable chance of getting to the Vertical Limit if he has a really good day. Darvish I also think can do it. Takeru I think will do it as his performance in 39 was great and he'd have done it if it wasn't for the rain. Shingo has a chance if he gets the Glider down as his leg power is still really impressive and his stamina is great for his age. Tsukada may have a small chance as he is capable of defeating the DG and he might be able to defeat the wall.

That's all I got for now. I'm listing people who I think have a chance mind you, not saying all of these people will clear.

And yes, I'm presuming no rain or weather problems.

I’ve somewhat lost hope in both Matsuda and Ayano purely because they continuously seem to fail on obstacles they’d passed in previous competitions. Ayano im sure will clear at some point, not sure if it’ll be the next one, but Matsuda’s like 47 now so his time is really running out. He also seems to mentally choke on obstacles that have given him trouble, the Dragon Glider being the biggest of those hurdles imo. But still one can only hope.

Yeah I’d say Tomo is probably the most likely of the redemption runs as compared to, say, Kanno or Shunsuke his string of fails is much shorter and he’s come closer in each respective attempt. Darvish as well, all three of his most recent fails have been due to external circumstances. I’m not saying he would’ve made Stage 3 in all of those last attempts but it’s something to bear in mind.

I think both Takeru and Wasabi are probably the most likely celebrities to avenge their past failures. Takeru’s been training a lot recently, while I didn’t realise but looking at Wasabi’s Instagram the guy is athletic as f*** and can do the Crazy Cliffhanger jump.

Tsukada and Shingo are another two I’ve lost faith in due to their string of failures and inconsistencies in terms of failing earlier, then doing better the next tournament, then failing earlier again. They’re also 5 and 9 Stage 1 failures deep, the latter, if history is anything to go by, easily verging on the realm of unrecoverable. I also feel as though Tsukada just doesn’t care anymore and is competing to show face/because he’s paid to, while Shingo just competes for the community spirit and to maintain his 100% attendance rate.

On an unrelated note, I find it hilarious how Takeru is probably the most famous athletic celebrity competing on Sasuke in recent years, yet he’s also been cut and digested multiple times in his tenure lol.

[dakohosu]

Jul 18, 2022 15:18:45 GMT -5 brz0ny said:

I will go for a very left field one and say Kawaguchi.

Okay jokes aside, there are obvious candidates like the ones person above me named and I really cant think of anyone else he hasnt named who could stand a chance. I guess Nagano might still be able to beat it if Takeda could but I really dont see that happening.

I don’t think Kawaguchi is that left field, he was only recently ‘Mr 99’ which for how overhyped he was, was due to his really strong performances until only 2-3 years ago, and two of his three recent fails have been due to wet weather.

Naaaah Nagano won’t clear, he’s 50 and doesn’t train for Sasuke anymore, and given that his stamina started declining at like 37-38 and his past issues with the wall, it’s not gonna happen.

I still remember people claiming that Nagano would reach Stage 3 or even 4 when he returned two tournaments ago at 48 years old. Yes, he is Nagano, but he’s also an (admittedly insanely athletic) middle aged dude years out of practice. It’s unreasonable to assume that he’s going to reach the same heights as he did 15 years ago on a way harder course, mainly just All-Star bias. Everyone called Iketani failing really early in 37 due to his age despite the fact that he still does athletics, purely because he doesn’t have the All-Star glamour and lipstick.

People (not you, but people) need to stop confusing their love for the All-Stars with assuming they’re going to make Stage 3, the guys are pushing 50-55 now lol.

[m4tt3r0x]

Hmm good question.

I think there's a good chance Tomo clears in my opinion. Let me put it like this: He hasn't failed before the Warped Wall since his Double Pendulum flop in 33 if I remember correctly, and that fail was largely due to him just rushing and not taking the extra swing. What I'm saying is he has a good track record for pre-wall obstacles, and I don't see him failing something like the Fishbone-Kai or Dragon Glider. Then it comes down to how he fairs against the Ni Ren Soritatse Kabe. I don't think his fail in 39 counts, entirely because of the rain lol. I think him failing the wall once was a big surprise in 37, still a surprise in 38. but in 40, it will be no secret anymore that the wall is his test now. I personally think he would have likely cleared it in 39 had it not rained, and I feel the same for 40. I'm pretty confident Tomo will put in the work to clear it this time (of course anything can happen), fingers crossed he has a fair shot.

I don't know if Ayano has it in her to beat the second wall yet sadly. I'd like her to clear, but from what I've seen in practice, she can get it, but I've never personally seen her clear it after a big stamina test prior which is what Stage 1 is. Could be wrong though. I think she will make it the Ni Ren Soritatse Kabe though.

Kanno and Shunsuke I don't think are clearing. They could, but I just doubt it. I think Shunsuke has a better chance, as Kanno has already had Warped Wall problems in the past let alone problems with the Dragon Glider.

Then there's Kan Yutaka, who I like a lot as a competitor, but I don't think he will clear the wall in 40.

I think ABC-Z is pocketed at this point. If it's not the Dragon Glider that gets him I think it will be the Warped Wall.

Lastly, and I'm probably missing people, I think Darvish still has a legitimate shot, but will he likely do it? I actually think there's a good shot. He got cheated in 38 and 39, let's face it.

Shingo's gonna fail something. Sadly probably Matsuda too Nagano's very likely not getting past the wall, if that. I think he fails the DG again personally.

Tl;dr Tomo clears, Darvish has a good shot, the rest I doubt but hope I'm wrong.

[dakohosu]

Jul 18, 2022 15:33:04 GMT -5 m4tt3r0x said:

Hmm good question.

I think there's a good chance Tomo clears in my opinion. Let me put it like this: He hasn't failed before the Warped Wall since his Double Pendulum flop in 33 if I remember correctly, and that fail was largely due to him just rushing and not taking the extra swing. What I'm saying is he has a good track record for pre-wall obstacles, and I don't see him failing something like the Fishbone-Kai or Dragon Glider. Then it comes down to how he fairs against the Ni Ren Soritatse Kabe. I don't think his fail in 39 counts, entirely because of the rain lol. I think him failing the wall once was a big surprise in 37, still a surprise in 38. but in 40, it will be no secret anymore that the wall is his test now. I personally think he would have likely cleared it in 39 had it not rained, and I feel the same for 40. I'm pretty confident Tomo will put in the work to clear it this time (of course anything can happen), fingers crossed he has a fair shot.

I don't know if Ayano has it in her to beat the second wall yet sadly. I'd like her to clear, but from what I've seen in practice, she can get it, but I've never personally seen her clear it after a big stamina test prior which is what Stage 1 is. Could be wrong though. I think she will make it the Ni Ren Soritatse Kabe though.

Kanno and Shunsuke I don't think are clearing. They could, but I just doubt it. I think Shunsuke has a better chance, as Kanno has already had Warped Wall problems in the past let alone problems with the Dragon Glider.

Then there's Kan Yutaka, who I like a lot as a competitor, but I don't think he will clear the wall in 40.

I think ABC-Z is pocketed at this point. If it's not the Dragon Glider that gets him I think it will be the Warped Wall.

Lastly, and I'm probably missing people, I think Darvish still has a legitimate shot, but will he likely do it? I actually think there's a good shot. He got cheated in 38 and 39, let's face it.

Shingo's gonna fail something. Sadly probably Matsuda too Nagano's very likely not getting past the wall, if that. I think he fails the DG again personally.

Tl;dr Tomo clears, Darvish has a good shot, the rest I doubt but hope I'm wrong.

Shunsuke’s (allegedly) going to retire if he fails the Dragon Glider again. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he did. The guy went to one training session prior to 39 and even then skipped the Dragon Glider that had taken him out twice before, and from what I know hasn’t trained at all this year. I knew his pending retirement was coming as he’s been prioritising his family life over Sasuke almost exclusively for the past 3-4 years, in fact I was surprised he’s continued to compete for this long after like 35-36. His priorities are 100% fair and no one should think otherwise, but why he didn’t retire earlier as a result I don’t really know.

Kanno I hope clears, but correlation is unfortunately causation and what’s to say that four DG fails won’t become five? Yes he trained for it but that’s been the case every year and he still fails it. I also think he’s going to retire soon at this rate, he’s 37 now and is already six straight Stage 1 fails deep/hasn’t cleared in 7 years.

[brz0ny]

Jul 18, 2022 15:47:55 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Jul 18, 2022 15:33:04 GMT -5 m4tt3r0x said:

Hmm good question.

I think there's a good chance Tomo clears in my opinion. Let me put it like this: He hasn't failed before the Warped Wall since his Double Pendulum flop in 33 if I remember correctly, and that fail was largely due to him just rushing and not taking the extra swing. What I'm saying is he has a good track record for pre-wall obstacles, and I don't see him failing something like the Fishbone-Kai or Dragon Glider. Then it comes down to how he fairs against the Ni Ren Soritatse Kabe. I don't think his fail in 39 counts, entirely because of the rain lol. I think him failing the wall once was a big surprise in 37, still a surprise in 38. but in 40, it will be no secret anymore that the wall is his test now. I personally think he would have likely cleared it in 39 had it not rained, and I feel the same for 40. I'm pretty confident Tomo will put in the work to clear it this time (of course anything can happen), fingers crossed he has a fair shot.

I don't know if Ayano has it in her to beat the second wall yet sadly. I'd like her to clear, but from what I've seen in practice, she can get it, but I've never personally seen her clear it after a big stamina test prior which is what Stage 1 is. Could be wrong though. I think she will make it the Ni Ren Soritatse Kabe though.

Kanno and Shunsuke I don't think are clearing. They could, but I just doubt it. I think Shunsuke has a better chance, as Kanno has already had Warped Wall problems in the past let alone problems with the Dragon Glider.

Then there's Kan Yutaka, who I like a lot as a competitor, but I don't think he will clear the wall in 40.

I think ABC-Z is pocketed at this point. If it's not the Dragon Glider that gets him I think it will be the Warped Wall.

Lastly, and I'm probably missing people, I think Darvish still has a legitimate shot, but will he likely do it? I actually think there's a good shot. He got cheated in 38 and 39, let's face it.

Shingo's gonna fail something. Sadly probably Matsuda too Nagano's very likely not getting past the wall, if that. I think he fails the DG again personally.

Tl;dr Tomo clears, Darvish has a good shot, the rest I doubt but hope I'm wrong.

Shunsuke’s (allegedly) going to retire if he fails the Dragon Glider again.

Ironically, trampoline performer might be finished off by a trampoline obstacle.

[YourResidentKojiFan]

Since a lot of people have already explained their reasoning with other competitors, I'm gonna toss in a bit of a curveball here and throw in Wataru Mori. I think he could make a good comeback if he does return, though I'm slightly skeptical he won't because apparently he was declined for 39. However, if he does come back, I can see him at very best, like, if all 8 planets align at exactly 2:22 on a Tuesday and he gets hit by a horseshoe shaped like a 7 before his run, making it to the Swing Edge. More realistically, I can see him making it deep into the Second Stage, as he's 3/3 on the DG, isn't just Salmon Ladder fodder like Tsukada, (are we allowed to say his actual name here? I swear everyone just says ABC-Z lol) and can certainly beat the NRSK without rain. Overall, if he returns, I can definitely see some potential for him.

[katoshiho]

And don't forget Sakuma Kota, because he also have chance to clear Stage 1 for the first time.
PS, I Predict there will be at least one rampage cleared Dragon Glider.
First time Stage 1 clearers nominations:
Oshima Ayano
Matsuda Daisuke
Wasabi
Takechi
Kawauchi Soichiro
Ogata Yoshiyuki
Sakuma Kota
Maybe some normal people compete in SASUKE 38 or 39 like Goto Yusuke( Goto already cleared so there will have one more new star)
An astonishing idol (shocked everyone) this person compete before.
Redemption runs:
Kawaguchi Tomohiro
Takeru (if he stay compete)
Darvish Kenji
Tsukada Ryoichi
Kanno Hitoshi
Nagasaki Shunsuke
Yamamoto Shingo
Mori Wataru
Hashimoto Koji (if he return)
Asa Kazuma (if he return)
Yamamoto Hiroshige (if he return as a Black Tiger member)
Of course, Morimoto Yusuke, Urushihara Yuji and Araki Naoyuki can clear, they just been ruined by a unpredictable rain.
Rookies I predict Ishikawa Sho, Izumi Hikari and Kato Shiho.

Although Akiyama Kazuhiko, Shiratori Bunpei, Kishimoto Shinya etc might return but there's no chance for them clear Stage 1 again.
Same for Nagano Makoto, but he might reached Soritatsu Kabe.

[Dazed (Wiin)]

Jul 18, 2022 20:47:01 GMT -5 YourResidentKojiFan said:

Since a lot of people have already explained their reasoning with other competitors, I'm gonna toss in a bit of a curveball here and throw in Wataru Mori. I think he could make a good comeback if he does return, though I'm slightly skeptical he won't because apparently he was declined for 39. However, if he does come back, I can see him at very best, like, if all 8 planets align at exactly 2:22 on a Tuesday and he gets hit by a horseshoe shaped like a 7 before his run, making it to the Swing Edge. More realistically, I can see him making it deep into the Second Stage, as he's 3/3 on the DG, isn't just Salmon Ladder fodder like Tsukada, (are we allowed to say his actual name here? I swear everyone just says ABC-Z lol) and can certainly beat the NRSK without rain. Overall, if he returns, I can definitely see some potential for him.

I'd even wager that if his luck was *that* good (exactly how you described) that Mori could even make it to the CHD, since I wouldn't say the Swing Edge presents any major barrier like the CHD and VLK which are definitely have strength gaps. The main thing for the Swing Edge is technique, which if you haven't practiced, is very very difficult, but by no means impossible. 

And LOL, you'd think it's illegal to call Tsukuda and Iwamoto by their names. 

[dakohosu]

Jul 18, 2022 20:47:01 GMT -5 YourResidentKojiFan said:

Since a lot of people have already explained their reasoning with other competitors, I'm gonna toss in a bit of a curveball here and throw in Wataru Mori. I think he could make a good comeback if he does return, though I'm slightly skeptical he won't because apparently he was declined for 39. However, if he does come back, I can see him at very best, like, if all 8 planets align at exactly 2:22 on a Tuesday and he gets hit by a horseshoe shaped like a 7 before his run, making it to the Swing Edge. More realistically, I can see him making it deep into the Second Stage, as he's 3/3 on the DG, isn't just Salmon Ladder fodder like Tsukada, (are we allowed to say his actual name here? I swear everyone just says ABC-Z lol) and can certainly beat the NRSK without rain. Overall, if he returns, I can definitely see some potential for him.

Where did you hear that he was declined for 39? Iketani was but that’s because he’s been doing s*** for the last 10 years lol.

I don’t know why they’d decline Mori given that he’s hella athletic (I mean he’s paid to be an athlete lol) and is pretty damn famous from what I gather. It’s not like he’s another Dai Igarashi or Takasu Seiki who were just fairly irrelevant Stage 2 fodder. He’s both great for ratings and has the potential to deliver some strong performances.

I think he’s shown that he deserves to make Stage 3 as both his Stage 2 runs were pretty close (I mean he technically cleared before his DQ lol). Not sure how he’d do if he did get that far though, don’t think he’s been training that much for the show recently.

[brz0ny]

Jul 18, 2022 22:08:07 GMT -5 Dazed (Wiin) said:

Jul 18, 2022 20:47:01 GMT -5 YourResidentKojiFan said:

Since a lot of people have already explained their reasoning with other competitors, I'm gonna toss in a bit of a curveball here and throw in Wataru Mori. I think he could make a good comeback if he does return, though I'm slightly skeptical he won't because apparently he was declined for 39. However, if he does come back, I can see him at very best, like, if all 8 planets align at exactly 2:22 on a Tuesday and he gets hit by a horseshoe shaped like a 7 before his run, making it to the Swing Edge. More realistically, I can see him making it deep into the Second Stage, as he's 3/3 on the DG, isn't just Salmon Ladder fodder like Tsukada, (are we allowed to say his actual name here? I swear everyone just says ABC-Z lol) and can certainly beat the NRSK without rain. Overall, if he returns, I can definitely see some potential for him.

And LOL, you'd think it's illegal to call Tsukuda and Iwamoto by their names. 

To be honest until recently I thought Snow Man was Iwamoto's alias lol.

[dakohosu]

Jul 19, 2022 2:48:05 GMT -5 brz0ny said:

Jul 18, 2022 22:08:07 GMT -5 Dazed (Wiin) said:

And LOL, you'd think it's illegal to call Tsukuda and Iwamoto by their names. 

To be honest until recently I thought Snow Man was Iwamoto's alias lol.

I dont know why that's become a thing, like we don't address Sugeta as 7-MEN Samurai or Ajima as Shonen Ninja lol.

I always figured that people just called Tsukada ABC-Z because his first name was somewhat 'difficult' to pronounce, tbh I just did because it's funny referring to a person as a few letters of the alphabet. 

People do call Rampage Exile as such, though that's obviously because they're a group of three guys, and in terms of Sasuke they're pretty irrelevant, like they keep just failing the Dragon Glider at best and don't seem to give much of a s***. Though Takechi apparently won SPODAN 2022 which I was shocked at when I heard, especially given his literal 100th place performance in 39.

[zoran]

Jul 19, 2022 2:46:42 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Jul 18, 2022 20:47:01 GMT -5 YourResidentKojiFan said:

Since a lot of people have already explained their reasoning with other competitors, I'm gonna toss in a bit of a curveball here and throw in Wataru Mori. I think he could make a good comeback if he does return, though I'm slightly skeptical he won't because apparently he was declined for 39. However, if he does come back, I can see him at very best, like, if all 8 planets align at exactly 2:22 on a Tuesday and he gets hit by a horseshoe shaped like a 7 before his run, making it to the Swing Edge. More realistically, I can see him making it deep into the Second Stage, as he's 3/3 on the DG, isn't just Salmon Ladder fodder like Tsukada, (are we allowed to say his actual name here? I swear everyone just says ABC-Z lol) and can certainly beat the NRSK without rain. Overall, if he returns, I can definitely see some potential for him.

Where did you hear that he was declined for 39? Iketani was but that’s because he’s been doing s*** for the last 10 years lol.

I don’t know why they’d decline Mori given that he’s hella athletic (I mean he’s paid to be an athlete lol) and is pretty damn famous from what I gather. It’s not like he’s another Dai Igarashi or Takasu Seiki who were just fairly irrelevant Stage 2 fodder. He’s both great for ratings and has the potential to deliver some strong performances.

I think he’s shown that he deserves to make Stage 3 as both his Stage 2 runs were pretty close (I mean he technically cleared before his DQ lol). Not sure how he’d do if he did get that far though, don’t think he’s been training that much for the show recently.

Iketani shouldn't have been declined, his contributions to the show can not be understated, he's one of the most recognizable competitors and beat one of the hardest stage 1s ever in 2011, disrespectful move imo. 

[dakohosu]

Jul 19, 2022 6:50:21 GMT -5 zoran said:

Jul 19, 2022 2:46:42 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Iketani shouldn't have been declined, his contributions to the show can not be understated, he's one of the most recognizable competitors and beat one of the hardest stage 1s ever in 2011, disrespectful move imo. 

Yeah no I completely agree, I just assumed that was the reason they didn’t let him compete, as given how synonymous he is with TBS competitive sports programs there is literally no other possible rationale to decline his application.

Nevertheless I was really surprised when I heard this, especially as they allowed Tomohiro Mutou to compete who’s a part of his show group, but not the group leader himself lol.

Honestly if they’re going to decline Iketani and potentially even Mori as well, who are arguably the best combination of being both celebrities to drive ratings and athletes no less, in favour of adding another two joke competitors to the 50-60 in total, then I really don’t like the way the show is going.

What will be next? Declining Shingo in favour of some random comedian who gets half an hour of screen time and two ads just for them to fail the Rolling Hill?

[katoshiho]

Jul 19, 2022 7:02:13 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Jul 19, 2022 6:50:21 GMT -5 zoran said:

Yeah no I completely agree, I just assumed that was the reason they didn’t let him compete, as given how synonymous he is with TBS competitive sports programs there is literally no other possible rationale to decline his application.

Nevertheless I was really surprised when I heard this, especially as they allowed Tomohiro Mutou to compete who’s a part of his show group, but not the group leader himself lol.

Honestly if they’re going to decline Iketani and potentially even Mori as well, who are arguably the best combination of being both celebrities to drive ratings and athletes no less, in favour of adding another two joke competitors to the 50-60 in total, then I really don’t like the way the show is going.

What will be next? Declining Shingo in favour of some random comedian who gets half an hour of screen time and two ads just for them to fail the Rolling Hill?

I think they don't choose Iketani Naoki.in SASUKE 39 because they think it better to let him only compete SASUKE 40, because that is a celebration competition.

[YourResidentKojiFan]

Jul 19, 2022 2:46:42 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Jul 18, 2022 20:47:01 GMT -5 YourResidentKojiFan said:

Since a lot of people have already explained their reasoning with other competitors, I'm gonna toss in a bit of a curveball here and throw in Wataru Mori. I think he could make a good comeback if he does return, though I'm slightly skeptical he won't because apparently he was declined for 39. However, if he does come back, I can see him at very best, like, if all 8 planets align at exactly 2:22 on a Tuesday and he gets hit by a horseshoe shaped like a 7 before his run, making it to the Swing Edge. More realistically, I can see him making it deep into the Second Stage, as he's 3/3 on the DG, isn't just Salmon Ladder fodder like Tsukada, (are we allowed to say his actual name here? I swear everyone just says ABC-Z lol) and can certainly beat the NRSK without rain. Overall, if he returns, I can definitely see some potential for him.

Where did you hear that he was declined for 39? Iketani was but that’s because he’s been doing s*** for the last 10 years lol.

I actually think I got him confused with Iketani, my bad.

[dakohosu]

Jul 19, 2022 8:54:56 GMT -5 YourResidentKojiFan said:

Jul 19, 2022 2:46:42 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Where did you hear that he was declined for 39? Iketani was but that’s because he’s been doing s*** for the last 10 years lol.

I actually think I got him confused with Iketani, my bad.

I heard that Mori did apply for Sasuke 39. There was speculation that he got accepted but didn’t compete due to scheduling conflicts, but every competitor had a number and there were no no-shows, so he must’ve got declined.

[subtleagent]

Between Shunsuke and Kanno, I think I would at this point put more faith in Kanno given that he still trains and can still to this day do Cliffhanger jumps in practice (albeit a tad inconsistently). As far as Stage 2 goes, I don't think it'll be much of an issue for him assuming he doesn't have anymore injuries. His last legit fail on it was 12 years ago in SASUKE 25 on an obstacle that hasn't been relevant for a decade and his 27 fail was on behalf of an injury (which he gets a lot of these days). And he's shown he's pretty consistent in Stage 2 in spite of his size which one would thing would be a detriment for him.

That said, he's never attempted the Rolling Log or Reverse Conveyor and hasn't cleared in 7 years. And while the Reverse Conveyor is seldom a threat anymore, I still remember it took out Kong in 34, someone who I thought would have zero issue with it, but he legit failed it. So Kanno could be easy pickings for it and Hioki and Yuuji failed it on their first attempts at it so there's reason to believe the same would apply to Kanno.

Shunsuke we all know that one. He's got virtually no shot at this point and considering he's apparently retiring after 40 I'm not entirely sure he'll end on a high note.

Tsukada I obvs don't think has any real shot given he's dead in the water on tougher Stage 1s. Shingo I agree, as nice as it would be to see him clear again I think he's done. His last clear was 8 years ago on a piss easy Stage 1 that almost 30 people cleared and he hasn't had much luck with modern Stage 1 and like dakoosu said before it's like spinning a wheel when it comes to where he will fail. He's also not had a good history with trampolines as of late. They're becoming to him what Warped Walls are to Yamada.

Kawaguchi I'm probably the most optimistic towards given he's generally good at getting to the wall with time to kill and is still fairly athletic despite his unnecessary muscle gain. If he can just get his damn footing right.

Darvish I'd say is still good for a few more clears, though his luck is just awful in SASUKE.

Iketani as we know has no shot and his terrible performance backs that up. The fact that TBS decided to decline him shows that even they don't have faith in him anymore.