New stars last chance to reach stage 3 and 4

[shunsukenumber98]

For this thread, I'm going for the new stars below (which is according to my own category), where they are the competitor who had a lot of success throughout the show, but are not all stars: 

Shunsuke
Takahashi
Kanno
Okuyama
Yuji
Hashimoto
Ryo
Asa
Yusuke
Kawaguchi
Sato
Tada
Yoshi
Hioki
Keitaro

I'm also gonna do for competitors who haven't reach stage 3 and/or 4 in a long time. 

Shunsuke: 

Stage 3: SK 35 (he was a a lot more faster in this stage 2 run than in 40) 

Stage 4: SK 17 (this was probably his only chance, which he nailed it)

Takahashi:

Stage 3: SK 32 (I could see him clear the first stage had he not fumbled on the tie fighter) 

Stage 4: SK 27 (Could have made it there if he had not failed spin bridge) 

Kanno: 

Stage 3: SK 32 (this was probably on of his last chances even if a small one) 

Stage 4: SK 30 (Had he clear crazy cliff in 30 instead of 31, he could have made it there) 

Okuyama: 

Stage 3: SK 30 (could see him clear if he had competed) 

Stage 4: SK 27 (even if a small chance, this was probably his last chance to take on the big tower) 

Yuji: 

Stage 4: SK 37 

Hashimoto: 

Stage 3: SK 28 

Stage 4: SK 27 (hell, maybe even a Kanzen) 

Ryo: 

Stage 4: SK 37 (if only he didn't Ryoed the fish bone....) 

Asa: 

Stage 3: SK 33 (his last ever official chance before injury and fatherhood) 

Stage 4: SK 30 (due to easier VL and PL)

Kawaguchi: 

Stage 3: SK 40 (really can't see him making it back at this point) 

Stage 4: SK 37 (even with inconsistency on cliff dimension, I could still see him clear the nerfed stage 3 had he not failed stage 1) 

Sato: 

Stage 4: SK 37 (even if a small chance, he could still have cleared) 

Hioki: 

Stage 4: SK 37 (due to nerfed stage 3) 

Let me know what you all think

[dakohosu]

Agreed with most of yours so I'll only add what I disagree with.

Shunsuke I think could've cleared Stage 2 in 37 due to its lenient time limit if he'd made it that far. Obviously his Spider Walk/Drop issues started before that but that's clearly more mental than physical. Anything after that though no because he's too slow and out of practice, evident by him only having 30 seconds left when he failed the Spider Drop in 40.

Takahashi I'd go as far as to say 34-35, mainly because he basically reached the end of the Conveyer in 34, then had a stumble and that was that, and he had enough time to clear had he not stumbled. He would've probably cleared Stage 1 in 35 had the Dragon Glider not derailed.

Hioki imo never had any chance of clearing Stage 3, because he's only cleared the first CH transition once in his entire career, which made his run in 36 seem like a fluke. Sato I'm less keen to say the same thing about because he has come close to clearing the CH and almost did in 37, whereas Hioki once again fumbled the first transition. So to say he had a reasonable shot of beating it, even in 37, is a stretch imo. This is also assuming he'd be able to beat the nerfed Vertical Limit, which I could probably still see him failing, given that even Yuuji struggled a bit on it, and there's no contest between the two's upper body strength.

Would also probably say 37 for Kanno reaching Stage 3, mainly because his mistake on the Dragon Glider was avoidable unlike a lot of his other fails. 33 I could see him making it to Stage 3 if he didn't do that dumb move on the Rolling Hill, 35 no because he was low on time before he failed, and anything from 38 onwards I think his stamina would've had too much of a hit from all the injuries for him to beat Stage 2 in time.

Imo Tomohiro's last chance to make Stage 3 is dependent on whether they change Stage 2 at all for 42. I can see him clearing Stage 1 again, because he did so in 40, but he obviously had no time left when he cleared Stage 2, so I feel even a time limit reduction could really screw him, his stamina is noticeably incomparable to how he was pre-37. Hence why I'd say it's possible depending on the course but even if so his door is rapidly closing, as if he's already considerably less fit than 5-6 years ago, I feel it's only a matter of time before we start to see further decline in performance. The more I think about it, the more his run in 40 seems kind of analogous to Nagano in 27, where they give one good run after a streak of fails, then decline further. But him making it back is not an impossibility, though at best I can see one more Stage 3 from him.