What if Okuyama continued to compete from sasuke 30 onwards?

[shunsukenumber98]

AS the title suggest, what would happen if Okukama competed from sasuke 30-40? How far could he have gone, and when will he decline? 

[dakohosu]

Apr 19, 2024 4:10:33 GMT -5 shunsukenumber98 said:

AS the title suggest, what would happen if Okukama competed from sasuke 30-40? How far could he have gone, and when will he decline? 

Hard to say because he was obviously already approaching his mid-40s when he retired, and retired due to an injury which becomes more of a risk as you age, so if not in 29, there's a good chance he could've sustained something later down the line. And the point at which stamina starts to take a hit varies massively from competitor to competitor; Yuuji is still killing it despite turning 46 this year, while Kanno and a couple of the All-Stars started having noticeable drops in their early 30s. Okuyama didn't show much signs of slowing down, and had almost unparalleled consistency in one of the hardest eras of the show, but again it's still a case of it being only a matter of time given his age when he retired. It is admittedly very weird imagining Okuyama failing Stage 1, as he only did so twice and both of those were wall fails, he just didn't make mistakes, but I also can't see him continuing his streak well into his 50s. 

If I hazard to guess I'd say he'd make Stage 3 a couple more times, failing the Cliffhanger jump, and then start to increasingly struggle with the wall (especially with the Tackle being added in 31) and then the Warped Wall and/or time limit on Stage 2 could become his biggest enemy. Speed was never his biggest forte, and obviously this would become a larger factor as he ages. 

[subtleagent]

I'd say he'd make Stage 3 a few more times at least. Given the stagnancy of the course I don't see him having much issue with anything sans the Tackle + Wall or the Dragon Glider (though given how inconsistent this obstacle is that may not be saying much). Stage 2 wouldn't stop him, his only two fails on it were due to an obstacle malfunction and an overkill swimming pool that even champion swimmers couldn't do. As for Stage 3 it'd be hard to see him clearing that late in life. He certainly could give a good run, but I'm pretty sure he'd still fail. He put up a good fight with the UCH in 26, but you could see he clearly gave it all he had. Cliffhanger would be his max.

But yeah considering his injury I think his days of being consistent would be done. If he did fail in Stage 1 I don't see it being much other than time outs. Then again for all we know he could Nagano the Quad Steps lol.

[zoran]

I think with ageing and the introduction of the tackle wall combo, he would decline. I think possibly one of the reasons he retired was due to wanting to maintain his prestige as a competitor and not decline along the lines of Yamada, being a former elite athlete probably reinforced that mindset. His ankle injury probably was a writing on the wall moment for him (depending on how severe it was) and a sign to retire. I don't think Okuyama had much passion for the sport either, more being there to prove himself as an athlete.

So imo I'll give my headcanon on his realistic (R) result if he didn't get injured and decided to still compete as well as an optimistic/best case scenario (O) result.

30 - R - Wall lift, O - Crazy Cliffhanger jump
31 - R and 0 - Warped Wall
32 - R - Warped Wall, O - Lumberjack Climb
33 - R - Warped Wall or Lumberjack Climb, O - Reverse Conveyor
34 - R - Reverse Conveyor ( At that point, he would have trained a lot for the tackle combo and with the stagnant stage 1 and 2 and the morale boost from successful results, I think he could clear) 0 - Wall Lift
35 - R and O - Dragon Glider
36 - R - Dragon Glider, 0 - Warped Wall
37 - R - Warped Wall (would likely be training for the glider extensively at this point), 0 - Cliffhanger Dimension first jump (If he got up the wall and with the nerfed stage 2, I think he could have made stage 3 which would be legendary for a 49 year old, realistically I'd say he'd be more likely to fail the sidewinder but in the best case scenario the dimension jump
38 - R - Warped Wall, O - Wall Lift
39 - R - Warped Wall, O - Wall Lift
40 - R - Warped Wall, O - Wall Lift

Keep in mind for the realistic results, there is a good chance he could mess up on a lot of the earlier more technical obstacles like the double pendulum, rolling hill, fishbone, wing slider etc

[dakohosu]

Apr 20, 2024 7:28:42 GMT -5 zoran said:

I think with ageing and the introduction of the tackle wall combo, he would decline. I think possibly one of the reasons he retired was due to wanting to maintain his prestige as a competitor and not decline along the lines of Yamada, being a former elite athlete probably reinforced that mindset. His ankle injury probably was a writing on the wall moment for him (depending on how severe it was) and a sign to retire. I don't think Okuyama had much passion for the sport either, more being there to prove himself as an athlete.

So imo I'll give my headcanon on his realistic (R) result if he didn't get injured and decided to still compete as well as an optimistic/best case scenario (O) result.

30 - R - Wall lift, O - Crazy Cliffhanger jump
31 - R and 0 - Warped Wall
32 - R - Warped Wall, O - Lumberjack Climb
33 - R - Warped Wall or Lumberjack Climb, O - Reverse Conveyor
34 - R - Reverse Conveyor ( At that point, he would have trained a lot for the tackle combo and with the stagnant stage 1 and 2 and the morale boost from successful results, I think he could clear) 0 - Wall Lift
35 - R and O - Dragon Glider
36 - R - Dragon Glider, 0 - Warped Wall
37 - R - Warped Wall (would likely be training for the glider extensively at this point), 0 - Cliffhanger Dimension first jump (If he got up the wall and with the nerfed stage 2, I think he could have made stage 3 which would be legendary for a 49 year old, realistically I'd say he'd be more likely to fail the sidewinder but in the best case scenario the dimension jump
38 - R - Warped Wall, O - Wall Lift
39 - R - Warped Wall, O - Wall Lift
40 - R - Warped Wall, O - Wall Lift

Keep in mind for the realistic results, there is a good chance he could mess up on a lot of the earlier more technical obstacles like the double pendulum, rolling hill, fishbone, wing slider etc

I would personally say this is fairly viable, though I do think he could've made Stage 3 at least once between 31 and 35. 

I definitely think the Warped Wall could stop him in at least 31 because the Tackle was new back then, possibly 32 as well as it was made heavier, but then again competitors like Hioki etc. managed to clear it despite being of a similar height, in which case he'd likely make Stage 3. 33 I could see him either timing out on the buffed Stage 2 or making Stage 3 again, 34 I could see him making Stage 3, and 35 would possibly be a timeout due to the stringent time limit, given that he was never known for his speed.

On the last point, don't forget that Okuyama had a knack for not making mistakes on Stages 1 or 2. If anything, the only mistake he made in his entire career was missing the Flying Bar transition in 27. He was a former pro athlete so they're trained to perform under incredibly pressured conditions and adopt a "me vs course" approach; this is also why competitors like Jovtchev were so consistent. It's obviously completely up to interpretation as to whether this would change as he aged further, but he didn't show any signs of slowing down (he would've likely made Stage 3 in his last ever run had 29's Stage 2 not been broken), and considering that he was the most consistent competitor in arguably the hardest era of the show, I'm not sure about the effects 4 or 5 years would have especially given that the Inui era Stage 1s were arguably easier than the ones he consistently cleared time after time.

My predictions would be (low and high) -

31 - Low: Warped Wall, High: Cliffhanger , Prediction: Warped Wall
32 - Low: Warped Wall, High: Ultra Crazy, Prediction: Lumberjack Climb*
33 - Low: Reverse Conveyer, High: Flying Bar, Prediction: Flying Bar
34 - Low: Reverse Conveyer, High: Ultra Crazy, Prediction: Ultra Crazy
35 - Low: Dragon Glider, High: Ultra Crazy, Prediction: Warped Wall
36 - Low: Dragon Glider, High: Ultra Crazy, Prediction: Ultra Crazy
37 - Low: Dragon Glider, High: Dimension, Prediction: Dimension*
38-40 - Low: Dragon Glider, High: Wall Lift, Prediction: Reverse Conveyer/Wall Lift*

*This depends on where he is in the running order, given that all of these tournaments had certain competitors, especially in the 90s, affected by bad weather conditions. If he wore, say, #95 in 39, then he would almost definitely not make it past the wall. In the case of 38 and 40, Dragon Glider malfunctions were also a risk and were quite sporadic.

Ultimately though beyond speculation it's very hard to say given that certain competitors like Kawaguchi seemed to go from being incredibly consistent to suddenly dropping off a cliff. I'm just basing these predictions on Okuyama's past track record, with the consideration that he'd be pushing his late 40s/50 in the later tournaments.