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Post by dakohosu on Mar 20, 2024 16:02:57 GMT -5
Which tournament do you realistically think was the last tournament that a given All-Star could've made Stages 3 or 4? I'm not doing Stage 2 given that there is still a VERY small chance that Shingo and Nagano have it in them to clear one last time, and I believe Kanzen has already been discussed previously.
Nagano:
Stage 3 - 32: given that he narrowly missed out on a Stage 1 clear, and how easy Stage 2 was, he could've very possibly reached Stage 3 had he been a second faster on Stage 1. After that though he retired and stopped training regularly and has seen a pretty significant drop in stamina and technique.
Stage 4 - 24: would've likely reached Stage 4, if not won, had he not fumbled the JS given that he almost won on an almost identical course in the prior tournament. There was no way he was beating the post-24 buffed Stage 3 though, especially failing the nerfed version in 27, as well as the fact that his interest and hence training was dropping rapidly, and he was pushing 40 by this point.
Takeda:
Stage 3 - 25: could've likely made Stage 3 if he didn't fumble on the Double SL, which was at the very end of the obstacle so otherwise would've likely cleared. Never been the same after his hiatus so I'd say 25 was his last shot at reaching S3.
Stage 4 - 23: discounting 24 given that he failed due to exhaustion. I'd actually say 23 was his ONLY chance to beat Stage 3, given his issues with the Pipe Slider, and the fact that he was one rookie error away in 23 from likely clearing due to not seeming completely exhausted and the Gliding Ring being a lot easier as a 3.Final.
Akiyama:
Stage 3 - 17: saw a significant drop in interest after Nagano's win, and never came close to beating Stage 1 post-renewal.
Stage 4 - 13: given how close he came to clearing Stage 3 in 12 there's a possibility he could've done it in 13, however there was no way he was beating the extended back half, especially with his eye sight that would've been problematic on the Jumping Bars in the dark.
Shingo:
Stage 3 - 30: had narrowly enough time left to clear before swallowing water on the Backstream. Then from 31-39 he struggled with consistency and mental troubles, and in 40, while he did make it deep into Stage 2, even had he not fumbled before the SL, would've still timed out about 10-15 seconds away from the buzzer.
Stage 4 - 8: given his struggles with the newly revamped Stage 3 from 9 onwards, especially the Cliffhanger Kai, I'm doubtful he would've been able to clear post-8.
Yamada (I know zoran is going to disagree with me somehow, lol):
Stage 3 - 12: would've cleared Stage 2 had he taken off his gloves, however given his decline in stamina and general performance, and the fact that Stage 2 saw a dropped time limit and the Metal Spin, I don't think he would've beaten Stage 2 from 14 onwards even if he had made it there.
Stage 4 - 12: Just couldn't see him beating the extended back half, especially with the buffed Pipe Slider, the easier version of which he seriously struggled with.
Bunpei:
Stage 3 - 21: could've potentially beaten Stage 2 had he not fumbled early given that he built a SL replica, and despite his clear drop in stamina from Shin-Sasuke onwards, 21's time limit was very lenient so I can't see that stopping him.
Stage 4 - 17: would've very possibly beaten Stage 3 had the Body Prop not been slippery, however with his constant injuries + decline in stamina I couldn't see him beating 21's Stage 3. 19 and 20's were impossible due to the Sending Climber.
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Post by zoran on Mar 20, 2024 16:57:26 GMT -5
Nagano
Stage 3 - Agree with 32 aswell.
Stage 4 - Agree with 24 without any major circumstances however in the best case scenario I'd actually say 27 however it would require a lot of factors like him doing better in 26 and thus can more confidently train later obstacles. There was mention on this forum back in the 27 thread that Nagano beat the jump he failed on David's course, this footage is obviously lost but I don't see why someone would lie about it, IIRC there was even a video to now deleted video. The Ultimate Cliffhanger is just a big endurance test with jumps, I think Nagano could handle that and with good luck on the chain see saw could clear and potentially kanzen.
Takeda
Stage 3 - I don't know about 25 as it's likely the obvious upper body exhaustion from the DSL could cause him to fail the unstable bridge or metal spin. However I'd say he could have a chance in 34 or 36 at a push depending on his skill on the dragon glider. If he beat the kudari ladder in 33 (basically just hanging on) and failed say at the conveyor or walls, he would be a lot more confident with it and then come 34 might be able to clear. 36 would be a big push, there was some mention of him making it there before the tournament aired.
Stage 4 - Kinda agree with 23 but in 24 the areas that drained him out was spending too long on the last cliffhanger ledge and the hang climb, maybe with better technique on them he would have more energy and could clear.
Akiyama
Stage 3 - Maybe 16, his grip on the metal spin wasn't too bad, so if he held on there's a chance he could clear. In 17 I think there's no chance he could beat the circle slider, his lower body strength and vision issues would just screw him, his attempt wasn't even close.
Stage 4 - Agree with 13.
Shingo
Stage 3 - Agree with 30. Best case scenario maybe 37, would require him to make stage 2 in say 33 and 34 and get a lot more confidence/training on the dragon glider.
Stage 4 - 12. If say he didn't mess up on the globe grasp, it's possible he could have completed the cliffhanger Kai like Takeda allegedly did by landing on the closer mat on the second transition.
Yamada
Stage 3 - 14 in a plausible scenario. The metal spin in 14 had no large drop and with decent time management on obstacles he's familiar with I could see him clearing. In the best case scenario, I'd say 24, would require him to make it to stage 2 in let's say 14,16,17,18 and 23. He could much more easily mentally prepare himself for the metal spin, maybe even build a replica or do some makeshift training for it. By 24, Yamada had from what I heard learned the right technique for the salmon ladder by the time of 24 and with his weight loss and strength I think he could beat the ladder-bridge combo. Although it would be practically impossible due to the upgraded metal spin and time limit, it would be legendary if he cleared in 27, the show's seemingly last tournament.
Stage 4 - Agree with 12. Would like to say 13 if he competed but the curtain cling would drain his grip too much causing him to fail the cliffhanger or pipe slider. I think if he made stage 3 in 24, his best would probably be failing the spider flip jump due to tiredness and mental errors.
Bunpei
Stage 3 - Mixed on 21, he looked absolutely kilt after stage 1. He could either fail the slightly heavier salmon ladder or lose his grip on the metal spin or completely burn out on the wall lift. I would say plausibly he could though in the best case scenario.
Stage 4 - Agree with 17
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Post by darthvaderlim on Mar 21, 2024 2:10:33 GMT -5
To be honest, when Sasuke 30 was announced, I thought Nagano, Takeda, and Shingo would reach Stage Three together as a last stand, but instead the Swap Salmon Ladder DQ stopped that from happening. I hope Inui is happy, since he wanted them to retire in 28, but a DQ rule he created was the final nail in the coffin.
No All-Star made it to Stage Three post Monster 9 era, I thought Takeda would be same as he was pre hiatus, unaware that he lost his interest in Sasuke due to his firefighting job, which he later left in 2013.
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Post by dakohosu on Mar 21, 2024 6:16:54 GMT -5
To be honest, when Sasuke 30 was announced, I thought Nagano, Takeda, and Shingo would reach Stage Three together as a last stand, but instead the Swap Salmon Ladder DQ stopped that from happening. I hope Inui is happy, since he wanted them to retire in 28, but a DQ rule he created was the final nail in the coffin. No All-Star made it to Stage Three post Monster 9 era, I thought Takeda would be same as he was pre hiatus, unaware that he lost his interest in Sasuke due to his firefighting job, which he later left in 2013. I wouldn't say he necessarily lost interest. More that he was going for a promotion in 2011 and didn't want to risk injuring himself training/competing on Sasuke as he had done multiple times in the past with his shoulder. If I'm not mistaken, he was actually the only All-Star in 28 who didn't want to retire. Bunpei was injured, Akiyama and Yamada were ready to hang up the towel, and Nagano didn't enjoy competing anymore due to his recent performances and pressure from being a champion. Shingo was ambivalent as he was allegedly prepared to retire in order to ensure Sasuke stayed afloat (supposedly with Inui it was a non-negotiable agreement where if he were to take the helm again the All-Stars would have to be ushered out), but then Takeda wanting to stay incentivised Shingo to want to stay too. Takeda was the only one who was hell bent on not retiring. I'd say his bad streak of luck from 28-31 was probably due to lack of training/having been out of the game for a couple of years, as well as the fact that he was going through a divorce and switching career paths which would've ate a good chunk of his time, once he got back into the groove of things he started doing well again like reaching the wall in 32, clearing Stage 1 in 33 and 34, etc. If he had legitimately lost interest he would've stopped competing, Nagano did and would've quit years before 32 had he not been convinced to repeatedly come back because of his legacy. It's a shame though, because had Takeda not had his awful cardiac arrhythmia, he may well have still been clearing Stage 1 to this day in his late 40s, given that he cleared in 38 with one of the faster times despite having only spent a few months training himself back up from almost literal zero (he screwed his shoulder earlier that year so was completely out of shape until mid-2020). Had he been more careful, which I imagine he would've given that he's a fitness trainer now, and kept at it, he could've still been somewhat of a Stage 2 regular. |
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Post by Ninja Relaxer on Mar 24, 2024 18:26:05 GMT -5
Sadly agree on Yamada. His speed and stamina were huge liabilities after 12, to the point where he had almost no chance of clearing Stage 1. Even if were physically capable, his mental state held him back. Too bad, because I really wanted him to succeed.
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Post by dakohosu on Mar 25, 2024 10:04:24 GMT -5
Sadly agree on Yamada. His speed and stamina were huge liabilities after 12, to the point where he had almost no chance of clearing Stage 1. Even if were physically capable, his mental state held him back. Too bad, because I really wanted him to succeed. I always wonder what would've happened had Yamada not taken a tournament off in 13, because he did clear 13's trials pretty easily so it wasn't like his stamina just suddenly dropped off in spite of him training. I think his fail in 14 stemmed from not having trained for a few months when he was in retirement mode, which given that he was pushing 40 would've been very hard to get back in terms of the fitness he would've lost taking time out, as well as the pressure of his grand return after taking his very first tournament off. Then he entered this negative feedback loop of mounting pressure from trying to rectify an ever longer streak of Stage 1 fails, leading to further self-sabotage, and extending his string of said fails. He would've inevitably declined at some point given his age and the fact he already had a bit of a shaky history with his biggest enemy (the wall) that caused him to fail in a lot of the later tournaments, but I do think he could've upheld a bit more consistency into at least the end of the Golden Era if he hadn't set himself back by taking a year or so off of training and competing. Though I could see him failing Stage 2 a fair few times given that speed was never his forte even during his prime, and with the lower time limit and the fact that he had already failed the stage 6/10 times, it seems likely this would happen. I'd say he'd properly start to decline from Sasuke 19-20 onwards, because he did almost clear in 18, and from 19 onwards is where we saw a serious difficulty spike as well as Yamada's stamina clearly tanking. With the exception of maybe 24, he entered this bad tradeoff between either trying to go fast and failing early or gassing himself out too much for the wall, or going too slow to have any shot at clearing, and still ending up failing the wall. Given that he was in his mid-40s I think this would still be the case regardless of whether he retired or not, but 14-17 is a different story imo. Besides, it's not like the hiatus he took did him any good mentally, he still returned and maintained his notion of sacrificing everything to win when he came back. |
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Post by zoran on Mar 25, 2024 10:33:47 GMT -5
Sadly agree on Yamada. His speed and stamina were huge liabilities after 12, to the point where he had almost no chance of clearing Stage 1. Even if were physically capable, his mental state held him back. Too bad, because I really wanted him to succeed. I always wonder what would've happened had Yamada not taken a tournament off in 13, because he did clear 13's trials pretty easily so it wasn't like his stamina just suddenly dropped off in spite of him training. I think his fail in 14 stemmed from not having trained for a few months when he was in retirement mode, which given that he was pushing 40 would've been very hard to get back in terms of the fitness he would've lost taking time out, as well as the pressure of his grand return after taking his very first tournament off. Then he entered this negative feedback loop of mounting pressure from trying to rectify an ever longer streak of Stage 1 fails, leading to further self-sabotage, and extending his string of said fails. He would've inevitably declined at some point given his age and the fact he already had a bit of a shaky history with his biggest enemy (the wall) that caused him to fail in a lot of the later tournaments, but I do think he could've upheld a bit more consistency into at least the end of the Golden Era if he hadn't set himself back by taking a year or so off of training and competing. Though I could see him failing Stage 2 a fair few times given that speed was never his forte even during his prime, and with the lower time limit and the fact that he had already failed the stage 6/10 times, it seems likely this would happen. I'd say he'd properly start to decline from Sasuke 19-20 onwards, because he did almost clear in 18, and from 19 onwards is where we saw a serious difficulty spike as well as Yamada's stamina clearly tanking. With the exception of maybe 24, he entered this bad tradeoff between either trying to go fast and failing early or gassing himself out too much for the wall, or going too slow to have any shot at clearing, and still ending up failing the wall. Given that he was in his mid-40s I think this would still be the case regardless of whether he retired or not, but 14-17 is a different story imo. Besides, it's not like the hiatus he took did him any good mentally, he still returned and maintained his notion of sacrificing everything to win when he came back. I think if Yamada did compete in 13, he would have cleared stage 1 given the high he would have gotten from beating the trials (only place that could screw him is the spin bridge but he beat it in 14), stage 2 would be really close for given Shingo failed at the very end, but given his better strength than Shingo and past experience on this unchanged stage, I think he would cleared. On stage 3 the curtain cling would drain out his grip and he would fail the downward section of the cliffhanger. This imo is Yamada's best results from 13 onward. 14 - Probably the same as 13. Downward cliffhanger kai. 15 - Wall due to the heat. 16 - Metal Spin 17 - Wall lift due to time limit and time taken to psyche himself up for the metal spin. 18 - Salmon Ladder 19 - Jumping Spider 20 - Warped Wall 21 - Warped Wall 22 - Slider Jump 23 - Rope Ladder or metal spin 24 - Metal Spin or hang climb/spider flip like Takeda 25 - Circle Slider 26 - Jumping Spider 27 - Rope ladder, double salmon ladder or metal spin. 28 - Second wall 29 - Second wall 30 - Second wall or lumberjack climb 33 - Tie fighter 34 - Double Pendulum 38 - Dragon glider 39 - Rolling hill jump 40 - Dragon glider or warped wall |
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Post by dakohosu on Mar 25, 2024 11:36:36 GMT -5
I think if Yamada did compete in 13, he would have cleared stage 1 given the high he would have gotten from beating the trials (only place that could screw him is the spin bridge but he beat it in 14), stage 2 would be really close for given Shingo failed at the very end, but given his better strength than Shingo and past experience on this unchanged stage, I think he would cleared. On stage 3 the curtain cling would drain out his grip and he would fail the downward section of the cliffhanger. This imo is Yamada's best results from 13 onward. 14 - Probably the same as 13. Downward cliffhanger kai. 15 - Wall due to the heat. 16 - Metal Spin 17 - Wall lift due to time limit and time taken to psyche himself up for the metal spin. 18 - Salmon Ladder 19 - Jumping Spider 20 - Warped Wall 21 - Warped Wall 22 - Slider Jump 23 - Rope Ladder or metal spin 24 - Metal Spin or hang climb/spider flip like Takeda 25 - Circle Slider 26 - Jumping Spider 27 - Rope ladder, double salmon ladder or metal spin. 28 - Second wall 29 - Second wall 30 - Second wall or lumberjack climb 33 - Tie fighter 34 - Double Pendulum 38 - Dragon glider 39 - Rolling hill jump 40 - Dragon glider or warped wall Agree with most of these except 24. I'm unconvinced he'd be able to make it as far as deep into Stage 3 given that he trained intensively for 24 and cut a ton of weight and still couldn't get past the wall. He may have still had mental issues with the wall if he failed it in 20 and 21 as well, and he'd be 44 by that point so his stamina would've still been his Achilles' heel. We've only had 44-45 year olds making Stage 3 in the last year or so, and Yamada was never particularly age resilient so I doubt he'd be able to do it almost 15 years ago. I'd probably go with Rope Ladder in 23 and 24, due to having to take multiple attempts on the wall (don't forget that even in his prime he very rarely cleared the easier wall in his first attempt). 27 is the only tournament I could reasonably see him clearing that version of Stage 1 because of how lenient the time limit was. |
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