Shingo from 11-23

[dakohosu]

So Shingo's been known to have had a bit of a fall from grace in terms of his Stage 3 performances, with every attempt on the stage regressing over this period. A lot of people said that it was due to general aging and his shoulder, however I personally disagree as he was still only in his late 20s/early 30s and his shoulder didn't play up a whole lot during that period except for it rogue dislocating in 23. He also became much more consistent on the first two stages, and faster, hence his stamina wouldn't have been much of an issue. I think every regression has an explanation:

12 - Tried a new technique on the Lamp Grasper and slipped off, sapping his grip strength leading to a worse Cliffhanger performance
14 - New obstacle threw him off
15 - Sweaty hands from the heat that tournament hence leading to a slip on the Body Prop
17 - Body Prop was infamously slippery that tournament, as well as sweaty hands as it was a summer tournament
23 - Shoulder dislocated

Not to mention that in USA vs Japan, he broke this streak by reaching the Floating Boards, making it past the brutal Roulette Cylinder and Doorknob Grasper despite pushing 40 years old at this point.

I also think that he would've probably made the Shin-Cliffhanger in 23 had his shoulder not dislocated, and probably failed at the same point at least in 12 if he'd used the same technique on the Lamp Grasper compared to 11. 14, 15, and 17 granted were somewhat unavoidable due to conditions and/or new obstacles. I also think had he made Stage 3 in 13, which he very nearly did had his leg not been caught under the last wall, he would've probably failed in a similar fashion to 14 on the Curtain Cling, but the experience on that obstacle could've possibly led to him clearing it in 14. Like knowing the best grip to use etc.

Iketani is someone who actually did notably regress because he didn't train for Sasuke, and he failed earlier in near identical conditions, such as failing earlier on the Cliffhanger in 11 despite not slipping on the Lamp Grasper like he did in 10, and doing worse on the Body Prop in 13, 14, and 16, all of which were winter tournaments, and 16 had the much less strength sapping Arm Rings as a 3.1.

Anyway, what do you think about this? Do you think he could've potentially done better over this period if he had strategised differently or different conditions etc.?

[azn]

I know you didn't mention it for the purposes of highlighting his third stage regression starting in SK11, but I feel like this becomes even more complex when you consider his SK9 rumbling dice fail. If that doesn't happen, then his results from at least SK's 11 and 12 would've been altered, if not all of his results

[dakohosu]

Feb 28, 2024 11:20:05 GMT -5 azn said:

I know you didn't mention it for the purposes of highlighting his third stage regression starting in SK11, but I feel like this becomes even more complex when you consider his SK9 rumbling dice fail. If that doesn't happen, then his results from at least SK's 11 and 12 would've been altered, if not all of his results

In what sense?

I would assume had he not fumbled in the way he did in 9, then he would've probably failed in the same way as he did in 11, especially as it was a newly buffed Stage 3 course so he would have no experience in training of the downward transition on the Kai. I'm not sure how that would impact his further runs, unless he made a couple of mistakes up until the Cliffhanger that he learned from. That said, his technique on the lamps in 11 was perfectly fine, and he still decided to try a different technique in 12 which backfired, and he also failed the exact same Stage 2 in 13 that he cleared in 12, so he COULD learn from prior mistakes through experience but could also..... not? Lol. 

[zoran]

Feb 28, 2024 11:50:49 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Feb 28, 2024 11:20:05 GMT -5 azn said:

I know you didn't mention it for the purposes of highlighting his third stage regression starting in SK11, but I feel like this becomes even more complex when you consider his SK9 rumbling dice fail. If that doesn't happen, then his results from at least SK's 11 and 12 would've been altered, if not all of his results

In what sense?

I would assume had he not fumbled in the way he did in 9, then he would've probably failed in the same way as he did in 11, especially as it was a newly buffed Stage 3 course so he would have no experience in training of the downward transition on the Kai. I'm not sure how that would impact his further runs, unless he made a couple of mistakes up until the Cliffhanger that he learned from. That said, his technique on the lamps in 11 was perfectly fine, and he still decided to try a different technique in 12 which backfired, and he also failed the exact same Stage 2 in 13 that he cleared in 12, so he COULD learn from prior mistakes through experience but could also..... not? Lol. 

He broke his shoulder on the dismount.

[dakohosu]

Feb 28, 2024 12:30:20 GMT -5 zoran said:

Feb 28, 2024 11:50:49 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

In what sense?

I would assume had he not fumbled in the way he did in 9, then he would've probably failed in the same way as he did in 11, especially as it was a newly buffed Stage 3 course so he would have no experience in training of the downward transition on the Kai. I'm not sure how that would impact his further runs, unless he made a couple of mistakes up until the Cliffhanger that he learned from. That said, his technique on the lamps in 11 was perfectly fine, and he still decided to try a different technique in 12 which backfired, and he also failed the exact same Stage 2 in 13 that he cleared in 12, so he COULD learn from prior mistakes through experience but could also..... not? Lol. 

He broke his shoulder on the dismount.

I rewatched his run in 9 and there were no signs of that. When Shingo dislocated his shoulder in 7 and Takeda did the same in 12, Takeda had to be helped out of the water and both were in casts. Shingo in 9 seemed perfectly fine, no cast and he could lift his arms up and everything.

That said, an argument can be had is to whether his career would've been different if he hadn't pushed through his injury in Sasuke 5 and had withdrawn. He injured his shoulder banging it on the railing at the end of Stage 1, had it taped up during Stage 2, and was wincing in pain for the entirety of Stage 3. He would've 100% caused some damage to it continuing to push despite it clearly being problematic. 

[azn]

Feb 28, 2024 11:50:49 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Feb 28, 2024 11:20:05 GMT -5 azn said:

I know you didn't mention it for the purposes of highlighting his third stage regression starting in SK11, but I feel like this becomes even more complex when you consider his SK9 rumbling dice fail. If that doesn't happen, then his results from at least SK's 11 and 12 would've been altered, if not all of his results

In what sense?

I would assume had he not fumbled in the way he did in 9, then he would've probably failed in the same way as he did in 11, especially as it was a newly buffed Stage 3 course so he would have no experience in training of the downward transition on the Kai. I'm not sure how that would impact his further runs, unless he made a couple of mistakes up until the Cliffhanger that he learned from. That said, his technique on the lamps in 11 was perfectly fine, and he still decided to try a different technique in 12 which backfired, and he also failed the exact same Stage 2 in 13 that he cleared in 12, so he COULD learn from prior mistakes through experience but could also..... not? Lol. 

I honesty feel like he would've done the monkey bars technique he did in sk12 but instead does it in sk11, which was a major factor him failing the cliffhanger. Then he returns to the third stage again in Sk12, abandons the monkey bars technique he did and Clears the globe grasp with much more grip strength

Considering the platform position of sk12's cliffhanger, I also think that he would had enough strength to barely pass the cliffhanger. 

Basically, moving back his sk11 run to sk9, and then his sk12 run to sk11