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Post by dakohosu on Jan 19, 2024 13:47:34 GMT -5
How do you think Kanno would've done had he not sustained his shoulder injury in 32? He first injured it in 27, but given his consistency from 28-31, and his downward spiral post-32, it's very clear that the relapse rate/chronic status of said injury was consolidated during the second injury rather than the first. Here are my predictions:
32 - Lumberjack Climb timeout; he was already low on time by the time he cleared the wall
33-34 - Same; his Achilles injury was separate and I believe that's what kept him out of 34
35 - Same; given that he derailed the bar, if not then timeout as he was quite low on time when he failed
36 - Ultra Crazy Cliffhanger
37 - Cliffhanger Dimension or Jugo Dan
38 - Wall Lift
39 - Swing Edge, or Warped Wall if he was given a number in the 90s
40 - Cliffhanger Dimension
Generally my results for him pick up from 36 onwards, given that this was around the time that he was constantly going in for surgery that obviously impacted his athletic potential, stamina, upper body etc. I'd wager without those repeated injuries, he could've still been the same Kanno as we saw from 28-31, given that he would've only been 33-36 years old, which in today's day and age, isn't old by any means, and he still trains his butt off/has the commitment, rather has just been set back repeatedly by his constant injuries.
I am still in doubt as to whether it's wise for Kanno to continue competing as he's on a one-way train to debilitating himself for life with the constant relapses, but in an alternate world where he isn't made of glass, I still think he could've done pretty well. You never know though, given that the career progression of the Shin-Sedai has been somewhat..... inconsistent (think Ryo vs Yuuji for instance, lol).
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xelA197
Ōmori Akira
ex johnnybello & ItalianNinja08,fan of SASUKE aka Ninja Warrior since late 2008,thousand thanks GXT!
Posts: 333
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Post by xelA197 on Jan 19, 2024 14:04:27 GMT -5
I assume that his 32 injury didn't happen:
32: Lumberjack Climb
33: Flying Bar
34: Ultra Crazy Cliffhanger (1st transition)
35: Dragon Glider
36: Ultra Crazy Cliffhanger (2nd transition)
37: Vertical Limit
38: Wall Lift
39: Warped Wall
40: Vertical Limit
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Post by dakohosu on Jan 19, 2024 15:44:07 GMT -5
I assume that his 32 injury didn't happen: 32: Lumberjack Climb 33: Flying Bar 34: Ultra Crazy Cliffhanger (1st transition) 35: Dragon Glider 36: Ultra Crazy Cliffhanger (2nd transition) 37: Vertical Limit 38: Wall Lift 39: Warped Wall 40: Vertical Limit 33 and 34 would've ended in the same way given that in 33 he just made a complete rookie error on the Rolling Hill and injured his Achilles, which kept him out of 34, so if we're talking only about his shoulder injury, there would've been no change there as those results had nothing to do with his shoulder Re 37, remember that the VL was nerfed to 2cm rather than 1cm. As someone who's trained that grip on different thickness of ledges, 2cm is SO much easier than 1cm; given that in practice, he's been able to do the Cliffhanger+actual 1cm Vertical Limit combo, I'm unconvinced he'd fail on the 2cm version, even with the additional fatigue. With 39 it depends if he gets a number in the mid-to-late 90s, because until after Tada's run, the wall was still basically dry but just with wet patches. Around the mid-90s was when the wall actually became slick and hence impossible, which is why Ryo through Tada could all clear it, whereas Yuuji and Yusuke weren't even close. I'd maybe assume he'd get something like #85-87 if he failed Stage 2 in the previous tournament, given that Araki, who also failed there, got #86, and even guys like Tada only got #91. In which case he may be able to clear it, but if he got like #95 then no way. |
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xelA197
Ōmori Akira
ex johnnybello & ItalianNinja08,fan of SASUKE aka Ninja Warrior since late 2008,thousand thanks GXT!
Posts: 333
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Post by xelA197 on Jan 19, 2024 18:04:49 GMT -5
33 and 34 would've ended in the same way given that in 33 he just made a complete rookie error on the Rolling Hill and injured his Achilles, which kept him out of 34, so if we're talking only about his shoulder injury, there would've been no change there as those results had nothing to do with his shoulder Re 37, remember that the VL was nerfed to 2cm rather than 1cm. As someone who's trained that grip on different thickness of ledges, 2cm is SO much easier than 1cm; given that in practice, he's been able to do the Cliffhanger+actual 1cm Vertical Limit combo, I'm unconvinced he'd fail on the 2cm version, even with the additional fatigue. With 39 it depends if he gets a number in the mid-to-late 90s, because until after Tada's run, the wall was still basically dry but just with wet patches. Around the mid-90s was when the wall actually became slick and hence impossible, which is why Ryo through Tada could all clear it, whereas Yuuji and Yusuke weren't even close. I'd maybe assume he'd get something like #85-87 if he failed Stage 2 in the previous tournament, given that Araki, who also failed there, got #86, and even guys like Tada only got #91. In which case he may be able to clear it, but if he got like #95 then no way. Yeah I didn't think much about the fact that his fail on 33 was completely indipendent of his previous injuries. And in 37, assuming he cleared the Vertical Limit (predicting a fail here is my long shot), I don't see him clearing the Jugo Dan given the poor weather. In 39 is very hard to predict his number given that #93 and #95 were 2 completely rando (though one was a climber) and Kawaguchi was unexpectdly bumped to #98 despite two very poor performances before. PS: This is a question out of context, but assuming Sato didn't injury and competed in 39 and received a number between 92-95, he would have cleared the Wall in that condition? |
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Post by dakohosu on Jan 20, 2024 13:06:31 GMT -5
Yeah I didn't think much about the fact that his fail on 33 was completely indipendent of his previous injuries. And in 37, assuming he cleared the Vertical Limit (predicting a fail here is my long shot), I don't see him clearing the Jugo Dan given the poor weather. In 39 is very hard to predict his number given that #93 and #95 were 2 completely rando (though one was a climber) and Kawaguchi was unexpectdly bumped to #98 despite two very poor performances before. PS: This is a question out of context, but assuming Sato didn't injury and competed in 39 and received a number between 92-95, he would have cleared the Wall in that condition? Kawaguchi is an anomaly in terms of the numbers he gets given that he's somewhat of a favorite of Inui, assuming Kanno failed Stage 2 in the prior tournament, I'm not sure I could see him getting a number above Tada given that he was a recent finalist and made Stage 3 in 38. I'd probably estimate him as getting something like #85-87. Re Sato, maybe, maybe not. The wall was doable for #89-91 and impossible for #98-100, if Sato got something like #92 then knowing his parkour skills and lower body bias I'd probably go with yes. If he got like #97 or something then not sure. |
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