The best case results for each tournament

[zoran]

What do you think the hypothetical best case results would be for each tournament taking into account factors like weather and the skillset (and potential) of competing competitors at the time of that tournament?  Ideally keeping it plausible.

My opinions

Sasuke 1: 12m up the rope - I don't think anyone would have the ability to go much higher than that due to lack of experience. Yamada and Shingo are probably the only two that might have a chance but I think both of their best case results in Sasuke 1 would be the pillar path. I think Omori pushing himself to the limit could get a meter higher.

Sasuke 2 - Same as. The rope was wet and the new pipe slider and stage 2 culled the field. Akiyama if he did clear stage 2 could probably kanzen but I don't think he would be able to clear stage 2 at the time due to lack of experience and vision issues, he did a lot of training to clear stage 2 before Sasuke 4.

Sasuke 3 - Kanzen. If Yamada engaged his legs earlier, I think he could make it. Akiyama would still be caught out in stage 2 due to the goren hammer glitching out and vision issues.

Sasuke 4 - Same as.

Sasuke 5 - Same as. Yamada's best case would be timing out on the wall lift due to the brutal time limit, if he did make stage 3, I think he would be too exhausted to make the jump.

Sasuke 6 - 20m up the rope. Either from Yamada or Shingo. If Yamada leaned a bit further to the left he would have cleared. Shingo was probably training extensively and if his shoulder didn't give out like it did in 7 he could have cleared. Both would make about 20m up in the best case scenario (similar to Asoaka in 12) due to lack of experience and newness of the spider climb.

Sasuke 7 - 20m - 21m up. From Yamada, Shingo or Kane. If Shingo's shoulder didn't give out, Kane didn't fail the spider climb and Yamada didn't time out on stage 1 (all 3 scenarios are plausible), Yamada was probably aggressively training the pipe slider jump for redemption and I think he could achieve that.

Sasuke 8 - Same as. Wet rope.

Sasuke 9 - Same as. I think Yamada would have the best chance of tying Nagano however the exhaustion of the new course would cause him to fail like he did in 10.

Sasuke 10 - Final stage 21 - 22m up from Nagano. Nagano was training for the pipe slider jump and him not failing the jump hang is plausible. Due to lack of experience with the final stage, I'd say this would be his max similar to his Sasuke 13 fail. Yamada could clear but I don't think he would make it higher than 20m.

Sasuke 11 - Either 22m up from Nagano or a kanzen from Shinji if you think it is plausible he could beat the pipe slider jump. His rope climbing skills on stage 1 were incredible.

Sasuke 12 - Kanzen from Nagano. No stumble on the spider climb and no rope swinging away.

Sasuke 13 - Kanzen from Nagano.

Sasuke 14 - Pipe slider dismount fail if Shinji didn't knock the bar away. He'd still be drained from the devil swing and with the increased jump. Nagano might be able to get the same result if he rested longer before the jumping bars.

Sasuke 15 - Pipe slider dismount likely from Shinji or Nagano if he held on to the metal spin. However completing the devil swing in the inefficient way and the summer heat draining energy would ensure neither clear.

Sasuke 16 - Same as. Winter temperatures.

Sasuke 17 - Same as.

Sasuke 18 - Same as.

Sasuke 19 - Metal spin. I don't think anyone else bar third place would be able to beat that first stage. I think Washimi could have beaten the salmon ladder and provided that the stick slider error is Sasuke 20 exclusive, his best case would be the metal spin like in 24.

Sasuke 20 - Same as. I think only Levi could counter the stick slider error. 

Sasuke 21 - Same as.

Sasuke 22 - Kanzen. I think there is a small but plausible chance Yuuji could have done it given how close he came and the time limit.

Sasuke 23 - Kanzen. Similar to Yuuji, I think there is a small chance Nagano could have made it. If the timer was kept the same, he definitely would have, maybe if the slider jump didn't malfunction he would have more energy.

Sasuke 24 - Same as.

Sasuke 25 - Same as - Maybe Lee could make it to the third ledge but would fall near the end.

Sasuke 26 - Flying bar. Rests on Yuuji again. He would have the skills to beat the ultimate and the swing circle but I don't think he would beat the flying bar due to tiredness, lack of experience and pressure. I'd say fourth to fifth cradle in the best case scenario. It arguably is more likely he would fail the swing circle due to how pressure would have impacted him.

Sasuke 27 - Same as.

Sasuke 28 - Same as.

Sasuke 29 - Final stage about 21 - 22m up. Morimoto's fail on the pipe slider was a pretty solid fail for lack of a better way of putting it. I think it is plausible he could have survived. Assuming the lack of traction on the spider climb walls was a Sasuke 30 exclusive issue, I'd say 21-22m is his best case result due to lack of experience and pressure.

Sasuke 30 - Same as.

Sasuke 31 - Same as.

Sasuke 32 - Same as

Sasuke 33 - Vertical limit quarter of the way down the first ledge.

Sasuke 34 - I think if Morimoto didn't have issues with the powder rubbing off, I think his best case would be failing at the first transition of the vertical limit.

Sasuke 35 -  21m up. I think Morimoto could have made 1m higher but it was his first time attempting the new final so any he would still still make a ton of mistakes on the salmon ladder.

Sasuke 36 - Kanzen. If Morimoto caught the rope earlier and/or didn't make that small mistake on the salmon ladder.

Sasuke 37 - About 21m up from Rene. The Salmon ladder would still drain him out.

Sasuke 38 - Same as.

Sasuke 39 - Same as. Morimoto would still fail stage 1 due to the unfair rain.

Sasuke 40 - Same as imo. Maybe you could argue Morimoto could have kanzened but I don't think so due to it being his first time attempting this final.

Sasuke 41 - Kanzen.

[dakohosu]

Pretty much agree with all of these.

Interesting that you put Shinji Kanzen in 11, because I actually sort of agree (sort of meaning it's possible but unsure as we obvs never saw him attempt any Final) given his rapid speed. I actually think one of his swings could've resulted in a clear if he had just thrusted himself forward a bit more and maybe skillfully held on to the landing platform. I think he hesitated too much to the point where he just gassed out before he could calculate a proper jump.

I'd also add that Travis in 4 and Akiyama in 12 could've won had the former not disqualified himself (which imo was entirely avoidable and he cleared the obstacle otherwise), and if Akiyama had maybe calculated the jump a bit better. The latter is obviously a big if, but he wasn't that far off compared to like Takeda who just missed the platform completely (well, except for the railing that broke his shoulder....). Travis also would've almost definitely beaten the Final given his rope climbing skills, Akiyama again is a maybe but he's an insane rope climber and pretty fast too.

Apart from that, I think Yoshiyuki could've reached the Final in 38 had he not been robbed by the disinfectant on the ledge, given how he destroyed the harder Stage 3 in 40, and maaaybe Jun and Tada would've cleared the Cliffhanger had the ledges not desynced.

I also think re 16, Nagano's fail was entirely avoidable. He may well have won that tournament otherwise, given that colder temperatures are actually more ideal for endurance, which the Final definitely required, assuming it wasn't too windy.

[zoran]

Dec 18, 2023 16:11:52 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Pretty much agree with all of these.

Interesting that you put Shinji Kanzen in 11, because I actually sort of agree (sort of meaning it's possible but unsure as we obvs never saw him attempt any Final) given his rapid speed. I actually think one of his swings could've resulted in a clear if he had just thrusted himself forward a bit more and maybe skillfully held on to the landing platform. I think he hesitated too much to the point where he just gassed out before he could calculate a proper jump.

I'd also add that Travis in 4 and Akiyama in 12 could've won had the former not disqualified himself (which imo was entirely avoidable and he cleared the obstacle otherwise), and if Akiyama had maybe calculated the jump a bit better. The latter is obviously a big if, but he wasn't that far off compared to like Takeda who just missed the platform completely (well, except for the railing that broke his shoulder....). Travis also would've almost definitely beaten the Final given his rope climbing skills, Akiyama again is a maybe but he's an insane rope climber and pretty fast too.

Apart from that, I think Yoshiyuki could've reached the Final in 38 had he not been robbed by the disinfectant on the ledge, given how he destroyed the harder Stage 3 in 40, and maaaybe Jun and Tada would've cleared the Cliffhanger had the ledges not desynced.

I also think re 16, Nagano's fail was entirely avoidable. He may well have won that tournament otherwise, given that colder temperatures are actually more ideal for endurance, which the Final definitely required, assuming it wasn't too windy.

Nagano has always struggled in colder tournaments given he's from the south of Japan which is a lot warmer. His form in 16 also was kinda off due to this like him missing the wall on his first attempt despite the run up. His best case imo would be the dismount. Akiyama in 12 is a maybe yeah but we don't know how he would handle the spider climb and the transition to the rope which harmed Kosugi in 8, Nagano in 11 and Nagasaki in 17.

[dakohosu]

Dec 18, 2023 16:19:34 GMT -5 zoran said:

Dec 18, 2023 16:11:52 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Nagano's always struggled in colder tournaments given he's from the south of Japan which is a lot warmer. His form in 16 also was kinda off due to this like him missing the wall on his first attempt despite the run up. His best case imo would be the dismount. Akiyama in 12 is a maybe yeah but we don't know how he would handle the spider climb and the transition to the rope which harmed Kosugi in 8, Nagano in 11 and Nagasaki in 17.

I suppose that makes sense. After I typed that comment I realised that Nagano's always done better in the summer tournaments, like 12 vs 11 and 13 on the Final, 16 vs 17, 20 vs 21, 22 vs 23, etc. The only exception would've been his breakout in 9, and his early fail in 15, but the heat in 15 would've compromised everyone, even those who prefer warmer tournaments. I was just speaking from the assumption that warmer temperatures impact endurance but I guess everyone's different.

Yeah Akiyama is only a maybe because he's small and fast and has insane rope climbing technique but had no experience on that Final and also his eyesight may have had an impact too, I'm also unsure as to the plausibility of assuming Akiyama could beat that Final in his first attempt whereas it took Nagano four tries, the only inkling of hope being that he beasted the rope at an unparalleled speed in 4. Again though we've not seen Nagano and Akiyama side by side climbing ropes so whether he's faster than Nagano or not idk.

I also read the list again and I'm unconvinced that Yuuji would've made it as far as the fifth ledge in 25. 2cm ledge vs 3cm makes a HUGE difference (think 3-4 times harder vs 50% harder), he had no experience with Cliffhangers that hard as it was a new obstacle, and his height would've worked against him in making that second transition, especially as Lee who was almost half a foot taller than him couldn't do it. Also don't forget that he failed the Floating Boards on USA vs Japan; I don't think he would on 25's version as it seemed a bit easier given the material, but his fail on it in the former makes me assume he'd struggle on it which would then impact his Cliffhanger performance. I think he'd still fail the second transition.

[zoran]

Dec 18, 2023 16:37:43 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Dec 18, 2023 16:19:34 GMT -5 zoran said:

Nagano's always struggled in colder tournaments given he's from the south of Japan which is a lot warmer. His form in 16 also was kinda off due to this like him missing the wall on his first attempt despite the run up. His best case imo would be the dismount. Akiyama in 12 is a maybe yeah but we don't know how he would handle the spider climb and the transition to the rope which harmed Kosugi in 8, Nagano in 11 and Nagasaki in 17.

I suppose that makes sense. After I typed that comment I realised that Nagano's always done better in the summer tournaments, like 12 vs 11 and 13 on the Final, 16 vs 17, 20 vs 21, 22 vs 23, etc. The only exception would've been his breakout in 9, and his early fail in 15, but the heat in 15 would've compromised everyone, even those who prefer warmer tournaments. I was just speaking from the assumption that warmer temperatures impact endurance but I guess everyone's different.

Yeah Akiyama is only a maybe because he's small and fast and has insane rope climbing technique but had no experience on that Final and also his eyesight may have had an impact too, I'm also unsure as to the plausibility of assuming Akiyama could beat that Final in his first attempt whereas it took Nagano four tries, the only inkling of hope being that he beasted the rope at an unparalleled speed in 4. Again though we've not seen Nagano and Akiyama side by side climbing ropes so whether he's faster than Nagano or not idk.

I also read the list again and I'm unconvinced that Yuuji would've made it as far as the fifth ledge in 25. 2cm ledge vs 3cm makes a HUGE difference (think 3-4 times harder vs 50% harder), he had no experience with Cliffhangers that hard as it was a new obstacle, and his height would've worked against him in making that second transition, especially as Lee who was almost half a foot taller than him couldn't do it. Also don't forget that he failed the Floating Boards on USA vs Japan; I don't think he would on 25's version as it seemed a bit easier given the material, but his fail on it in the former makes me assume he'd struggle on it which would then impact his Cliffhanger performance. I think he'd still fail the second transition.

Yeah a good point regarding Yuuji, I'll change that. What about in 26, is the flying bar his best case provided pressure doesn't get to him badly?

[dakohosu]

Dec 18, 2023 16:48:01 GMT -5 zoran said:

Dec 18, 2023 16:37:43 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Yeah a good point regarding Yuuji, I'll change that. What about in 26, is the flying bar his best case provided pressure doesn't get to him badly?

I think that's plausible given that he would've had almost a year to train for the UCH at Kishimoto's, the ledges were of normal size, and the Cycle Road was way easier than the Floating Boards. Ryo reached the Flying Bar on a harder version of 26's Stage 3 on USA vs Japan (with the Floating Boards and Hang Climbing; this was also before ANW6 where they increased the ledge size from 3 to 5cm) only three or so years later, and Yuuji at the time was stronger than he was upper body wise, so to put Flying Bar as best possible outcome for 26 is reasonable imo.