Do you think the next Kanzanseiha will ...........

[SRW]

Take as long as the last one?

Look at the past it took 4 tournaments in the first sasuke era then a staggering 13 tournaments over 7 years before a second champion was crowned, and now with the shin course do you see it taking long before the innevitable happens?

Is it going to be closer to Akiyamas in terms of only a handful of tournaments or going to be several years ALA Nagano? Just wondered what the feelings are now we are 5 tournaments into the shin era!

Me personally I perhaps suprisingly don't think its going to be too much longer before it happens look at Yuujis close call to winning, Naganos dominant run in 21 and Takedas frankly, so many people are upping their games now and many people are suprising us, I honestly hand on heart can see it happening in the next 3 tournaments.

[bigblind168]

it'll be in the middel somewhere probablt leaning towards akiyama

[YamamotoFan!]

I think it wont be that long until a Kazenshia either (soz if my spellings suck:S)

[scnoi1217]

I think it will take 8 tournaments, meaning someone will win in the 25th Anniversary Tournament. It took 8 tournaments from Akiyama's win to Nagano's near miss in 12. Yes, people are getting close now, BUT the producers always make sure to keep the course one or two steps ahead of the competitors, and if a lot of people make it deep in SASUKE 23, big changes to the course will occur. So, in the next wave of success there will be one.

[quasikoz]

I think we'll see one if anyone who went deep in 22 can repeat their success in 23. If not, I doubt we'll see one this tournament. Probably closer 25 like scnol said.

[gazzawhite]

If nothing changes in Sasuke 23 (as in, the obstacles and time limits) then I wouldn't be surprised if there was a Kanzenseiha in 23. That's a big IF, though.

[Ninja Chris]

Jul 12, 2009 10:11:30 GMT -5 scnoi1217 said:

So, in the next wave of success there will be one.

There are waves of successes because TBS allows there to be them. They know how to manipulate the obstacles to allow high success rates, because ratings need it.

Need higher success? Raise the difficulty of Stage 1, but not 2 or 3. That way the people they hope to go far have better chances of doing it.

I still believe that 20 was a fluke for Nagano failing the beginning of Stage 2, I believe Nagano was intended to beat stage 3 but failed due to someone's poor obstacle design (As in, I think TBS truly wanted to see him at least reach stage 4, and possibly... possibly reach Kansenseihai a 2nd time for his B-day), and I truly believe that 22 was a fluke for all the all-stars to fail Stage 1... but even more of a fluke to see Yuuji reach the final stage... but a lucky, awesome save for TBS the way Levi saved it for them on 20.

[scnoi1217]

If anything was faulty with SASUKE 20, it was the Half-Pipe Attack. Take that out and you have much more than 3 clears. Plus I guarentee Levi wouldn't haven't been alone in Stage 3.

Need higher success? Make the First Stage easy or keep it normal and raise the time limit to something extremely high like in SASUKE 14 and 16. That way more people get to Stage 2. The people that will get far will almost always get past Stage 1 if its easy.

[SuperTiger]

I'm thinking Sasuke 24, if we see no changes next tournament there's a good shot there, but i think enough changes will be made to have people slipping up in unexpected spots. Ultimately i see someone making it to the end of the third stage or final stage this coming tourney. For 24 i think we'll see a lot more course changes, but changes that are similar to 17's and that will be were we see a kanzenseiha!!

[obakemono]

It all depends... there could easily have been a victory in Sasuke 12 or 13, but it wasn't to be, and then it was delayed by the revamp of the third stage. Overall progression of all the competitors will dictate changes to the course, it's just a matter of whether or not someone can reach the top before they decide to make the course a lot harder.

EDIT:

Jul 12, 2009 20:18:47 GMT -5 scnoi1217 said:

If anything was faulty with SASUKE 20, it was the Half-Pipe Attack. Take that out and you have much more than 3 clears. Plus I guarentee Levi wouldn't haven't been alone in Stage 3.

Stick Slider was the only thing that could be called faulty IMO. The HPA slaughter was an unforseen fluke.

[artyfowljr]

I admit that I am a fan of Makoto Nagano, but what I'm writing is not affected a lot by this. I think that if he makes trough the sliding jump and doesn't make stupid mistakes (flying chute, sasuke 19;jump hang, sasuke 10) he will have a concrete possibility of achieving kanzenseiha even in the next tournament, if they don't make big changes to the course.

[davidcampbell]

barring a major redesign I see it happening in 23 or 24, those uncli guys are hardcore, Nagano will have a shot after he likely clears the slider jump and well I might be going back too ;P

[SRW]

interesting views im glad to see its not just me who thinks its not too far away either, the standard now is just so high and with those uncli guys maybe Yuuji again or another one of them might be able to keep up the pace a few moments longer and hit the final button.
I still think Nagano is a good bet to win again.
Hope you get to go back David so we can hopefully see you in the 2nd/3rd stage and who knows...

[YamamotoFan!]

I have a feeling that there will be kanzenshia in SASUEK 23

[rcplanes59]

My calculations tell me:

12 final stage attempts in 4 tournaments
then
10 final stage attempts in 13 tournaments
therefore
8 final stage attempts in 22 tournaments

Akiyama missed 1 competition after 0
Nagano missed 2 competitions after Akiyama
Urushihara missed 3 competitions after Nagano

THEREFORE

Urushihara will achieve kanzenseiha in SASUKE 39.

THE MATH DOES NOT LIE.

[scnoi1217]

Yes, the math never lies. I remember Sasuke 16's Final Stage, man I couldn't believe 4 people got there. The 4 tournament rule never fails!

In all seriousness, Sasuke does flow in waves. The producers allow the competitors to get to the point where multiple people get to the Final Stage, then drastic changes are made.