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Post by zoran on Sept 25, 2023 7:10:55 GMT -5
If you base this on statistics alone (i.e. his 9 tournament failure streak beforehand) then I can understand the sentiment. However iirc Shingo went through mental therapy prior to 40 to manage his performance anxiety, which showed because he was on absolute fire on Stage 1. No typical Shingo mishaps or quirks or anything. Sure, he almost ran out of time, but he seemed like a completely different person. And no doubt that his clear has provided some new found confidence in his whole approach towards training etc. If he had like narrowly avoided 2 or 3 near-fails and only just barely cleared I'd be inclined to agree, but his run was smooth as silk. Just compare pretty much any of his last few runs to this one, it was like night and day. Even in his last runs, he's always shown the capability to clear in terms of speed and agility, it's just been mental mistake after freak accident after oversight and so forth. Ultimately I'm not getting my hopes up for Shingo to like reach Stage 3 or anything in the future, and sure if there's a new obstacle or buff to Stage 1, I can definitely see him being one of the first to fall foul to such a change. But given what he's shown he's capable of when mentally locked in, I wouldn't count him out from clearing a couple more times in the next few tournaments. Especially given that age seems to just not be a factor for him; hell, he's almost reverse aged in a way. Hasn't had a shoulder injury relapse in 15 years. It's more a general pessimism toward older competitors and their chances. Shingo and Kane both beat the oldest-competitor record in Sasuke 40, and while they're both great competitors, it seems unlikely that they could do it again (if I had to pick one or the other, though, I'd go with Kane). I think the human body reaches a point where the joints can't handle an obstacle like the Dragon Glider. Notice, for example, how many older competitors have failed there, including Yamada and Nagano. There's just something about the dip/transition that older bodies can't tolerate. I consider it a small miracle that Kane and Shingo survived it even once, and I believe they're the oldest competitors to ever do so (unless I'm forgetting someone). But both Kane and Shingo are pushing 50 now, and that to me seems like the cut-off point for successful Dragon Glider attempts. It's also around the age when Yamada and Nagano failed. One thing working in Shingo's favor, though, is the current level of course stagnation. Pretty much all Stage 1 training from the past ten years is applicable to the current course because so little has changed. No one's going to get stonewalled by some crazy new obstacle like the Warped Wall, the Jumping Spider, or the Flying Chute that calls all their training into question, because Stage 1 (unfortunately) doesn't get major updates like that anymore. Nagano beat the Dragon Glider at 50 in Sasuke 40.
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Post by Ninja Relaxer on Sept 25, 2023 12:32:35 GMT -5
Nagano beat the Dragon Glider at 50 in Sasuke 40. Thank you! I had forgotten that. I really need to go back and re-watch Nagano's 40 run, because apparently I don't remember it at all. Nagano's success on the Dragon Glider makes me a little more optimistic for Shingo.
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Post by Ninja Relaxer on Sept 25, 2023 12:43:06 GMT -5
It's more a general pessimism toward older competitors and their chances. Shingo and Kane both beat the oldest-competitor record in Sasuke 40, and while they're both great competitors, it seems unlikely that they could do it again (if I had to pick one or the other, though, I'd go with Kane). I think the human body reaches a point where the joints can't handle an obstacle like the Dragon Glider. Notice, for example, how many older competitors have failed there, including Yamada and Nagano. There's just something about the dip/transition that older bodies can't tolerate. I consider it a small miracle that Kane and Shingo survived it even once, and I believe they're the oldest competitors to ever do so (unless I'm forgetting someone). But both Kane and Shingo are pushing 50 now, and that to me seems like the cut-off point for successful Dragon Glider attempts. It's also around the age when Yamada and Nagano failed. One thing working in Shingo's favor, though, is the current level of course stagnation. Pretty much all Stage 1 training from the past ten years is applicable to the current course because so little has changed. No one's going to get stonewalled by some crazy new obstacle like the Warped Wall, the Jumping Spider, or the Flying Chute that calls all their training into question, because Stage 1 (unfortunately) doesn't get major updates like that anymore. Eh, I can see that, but let's not forget that Shingo and Kane have been training pretty aggressively over the last year, Shingo even more so. Nagano's been in and out of retirement and hasn't really been training much as a result, while Yamada is, well.... Yamada. He started to decline in physical ability, what, 20 years ago? Kane is an action actor so is still in incredible shape despite his age, and managed to do what he did with only 5 months of training. He'll have an additional year to practice, and it seems like he's really caught the Sasuke bug in terms of training. Shingo never really lost his edge, as mentioned he still looks and goes like he did when he was younger, he's just been victim of several mental mistakes. Nagano by comparison was already starting to have difficulty with the effects of aging (his wall struggles and speed being the best example of this) in his early 40s. And he still managed to clear the Dragon Glider at 50. Yamada is almost 60 and doesn't even properly train the obstacle, and again, he's Yamada lol. I definitely think with the former two's training regime and maintaining their general athleticism they have a MUCH better shot. I don't think there's necessarily a cutoff for DG clears, more that we barely get anyone of that age who attempts the obstacle and those that do are already out of shape/don't train much anymore. Agreed on the last point. Hence why I mentioned that given his penchant for choking on new obstacles and generally, any buff to Stage 1 and he's probably one of the first to go in terms of chances of clearing. I think he can go faster than he did, but if we got a, say 10+ second time limit reduction then again I could see him timing out or failing due to rushing etc. Any technical balance obstacles introduced though, and, well... we'd have to see. But yeah, as things are going, wouldn't count him out of anything JUST yet. Yes, and it's also true that the 50-year-olds of today are more capable than the 50-year-olds of 20 years ago. So Shingo and Kane, in addition to being two of the most dedicated and experienced competitors on the show, are also two of the most capable for their age. That's another point in their favor. I certainly wouldn't bet against either Kane or Shingo. My confidence level isn't that high. But I think with a question like "Will a 50-year-old competitor beat Stage 1?" the default answer should be no. And even when we get into the nitty-gritty details and consider all the unique circumstances, I still think the answer is, at best, "maybe." Just because 50 is really old to be doing athletic obstacle courses. On the other hand, Kane and Shingo might have a really good chance if they start doping, which... now that I think about it: does Sasuke do any drug-testing?
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Post by dakohosu on Sept 25, 2023 14:26:38 GMT -5
Yes, and it's also true that the 50-year-olds of today are more capable than the 50-year-olds of 20 years ago. So Shingo and Kane, in addition to being two of the most dedicated and experienced competitors on the show, are also two of the most capable for their age. That's another point in their favor. I certainly wouldn't bet against either Kane or Shingo. My confidence level isn't that high. But I think with a question like "Will a 50-year-old competitor beat Stage 1?" the default answer should be no. And even when we get into the nitty-gritty details and consider all the unique circumstances, I still think the answer is, at best, "maybe." Just because 50 is really old to be doing athletic obstacle courses. On the other hand, Kane and Shingo might have a really good chance if they start doping, which... now that I think about it: does Sasuke do any drug-testing? I feel like it's definitely possible. For people like Kane and Shingo, age is just a number really. Let's not forget that even almost two decades ago, Ishimaru almost cleared Stage 1 at the age of 52. Nowadays, 50 is what 40 used to be, and even back in the older days we had a few 40+ year olds clearing sporadically. Not common for sure, but it's definitely possible. I think the reason 45+ is so stigmatized is because most competitors realistically retire or stop training before they get to that age, so I'd argue that it's more down to circumstance that people at that age don't tend to do that well. Okuyama, Lee, Nagano etc. all could've cleared in their late 40s minimum had they kept competing and training. The difference between 45 (Yuuji and Suzuki's age now) and 50 really isn't that significant provided you don't have any injuries that tend to relapse more as you get older. 48 (the age that Shingo and Kane both cleared) and 50, even less so. But again, Shingo had loads of shoulder issues when he was younger. Now? None whatsoever. Eh, I don't think they do any drug testing, but I very much doubt either would want to get involved in that sort of stuff to due to ramifications on health and so forth. Really not a path you want to go down. I've heard a couple of people question whether Kajihara of all people does, given how well he performs at such a low body fat %, but again I doubt it given that he's all round just incredibly athletic, and PEDs tend to tank your stamina and endurance. Some people are just genetic freaks.
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