Were do you see Shingo's career going from 40?

[zoran]

Shingo clearing in 40 was one of the best moments on the entire show, coming back from a 9 fail streak, becoming the oldest man to clear stage 1 and looking fully in his stride. His stage 2 was also pretty good, there's a chance if he didn't mess up on the salmon ladder (and handled the rolling log dizziness better) he could have made it to the walls and possibly even clear. Do you think his run in Sasuke 40 is a sign for doing better in the future or a lightning in the bottle moment with him being super motivated to clear due to his reputation, the other all stars competing and Kane clearing?

I think if changes in 41 are not too extensive, there is a chance he could clear again and if he really trains for stage 2 and doesn't mess up (given his record though) he could make it to the walls and even stage 3 which would be legendary. If he really felt re-moralized and decided to start training some stage 3 obstacles, I could see him beating the flying bar/first obstacle, sidewinder possibly not but you never know. I could see his absolute peak were everything goes right, he's properly prepared,trained etc being the first (maybe second) transition on the cliffhanger dimension (this is a 1 in a billion chance though obviously, him failing the second is 1 in a trillion chance). This would be his best performance since 2003!

From there, given his age and past record, I don't think he would be consistently clearing stage 1. The best I'd want for Shingo would be respectable performances (Dragon Glider or equivalent+) with him becoming the first man in his 50s to clear stage 1, I think him getting to stage 3 would be another legendary show moment.

[sasukewarrior333]

It's an interesting question, because it requires us to look into why Shingo did so well, and the answer is in plain sight. Shingo underwent mental training, and this to me was shown in his run. He was smoother than he had ever been, and he wasn't rushing in the slightest, he knew he could do it and so he did it. If upholds this mental game and the course doesn't have an insane obstacle added, I think he has a few more Stage 2 trips left in him. If he trained more for the RL dizziness and worked slightly on his speed, I think a Stage 3 appearance is possible. In this case, I think Swing Edge is likely his max, as he was never the best at Stage 3, though honestly if he proved me wrong it'd be the best moment ever in SASUKE.

Ultimately though, if this was his final clear, it was a lot more dramatic and satisfying than SASUKE 30 would've been.

[dakohosu]

I could see him maybe clearing 1, max 2 more times and having a decent Stage 2 run on both of those occasions. Unless the changes in 41 are like 35-level, but given recent trends I doubt it. My only concern with Shingo is his inconsistency; he's very capable of doing well in one tournament and completely bottling it the next. I just hope the therapy he got prior to 40, as well as his comeback, has actually had a lasting effect on his mental state when it comes to competing and avoiding making rookie errors that he's become infamous for. But there's no doubt the dude has aged incredibly well; not to mention that his shoulder injury that kept plaguing him in his 20s-30s seems to no longer be an issue, which is the complete opposite for most others (i.e. Takeda and Kanno).

When it comes to Stage 3, I'm not holding my breath, and if there's a time limit reduction or buff to Stage 2 then definitely not. But it was pretty surprising how close he would've come had he not had his derp moment after the Rolling Log, which easily cost him 15 or so seconds. It's very unlikely, maybe a <5% chance (I would've said <1% prior to 40), but that would be mental, his first Stage 3 run in 14 years lol.

[zoran]

Jan 27, 2023 18:11:07 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

I could see him maybe clearing 1, max 2 more times and having a decent Stage 2 run on both of those occasions. Unless the changes in 41 are like 35-level, but given recent trends I doubt it. My only concern with Shingo is his inconsistency; he's very capable of doing well in one tournament and completely bottling it the next. I just hope the therapy he got prior to 40, as well as his comeback, has actually had a lasting effect on his mental state when it comes to competing and avoiding making rookie errors that he's become infamous for. But there's no doubt the dude has aged incredibly well; not to mention that his shoulder injury that kept plaguing him in his 20s-30s seems to no longer be an issue, which is the complete opposite for most others (i.e. Takeda and Kanno).

When it comes to Stage 3, I'm not holding my breath, and if there's a time limit reduction or buff to Stage 2 then definitely not. But it was pretty surprising how close he would've come had he not had his derp moment after the Rolling Log, which easily cost him 15 or so seconds. It's very unlikely, maybe a <5% chance (I would've said <1% prior to 40), but that would be mental, his first Stage 3 run in 14 years lol.

What do you think is his max on stage 3 if he were to make it there?

[dakohosu]

Jan 27, 2023 18:28:25 GMT -5 zoran said:

Jan 27, 2023 18:11:07 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

I could see him maybe clearing 1, max 2 more times and having a decent Stage 2 run on both of those occasions. Unless the changes in 41 are like 35-level, but given recent trends I doubt it. My only concern with Shingo is his inconsistency; he's very capable of doing well in one tournament and completely bottling it the next. I just hope the therapy he got prior to 40, as well as his comeback, has actually had a lasting effect on his mental state when it comes to competing and avoiding making rookie errors that he's become infamous for. But there's no doubt the dude has aged incredibly well; not to mention that his shoulder injury that kept plaguing him in his 20s-30s seems to no longer be an issue, which is the complete opposite for most others (i.e. Takeda and Kanno).

When it comes to Stage 3, I'm not holding my breath, and if there's a time limit reduction or buff to Stage 2 then definitely not. But it was pretty surprising how close he would've come had he not had his derp moment after the Rolling Log, which easily cost him 15 or so seconds. It's very unlikely, maybe a <5% chance (I would've said <1% prior to 40), but that would be mental, his first Stage 3 run in 14 years lol.

What do you think is his max on stage 3 if he were to make it there?

I’d say absolute max would be Swing Edge, but realistically I can see him failing on the Spinwinder as he’s really inexperienced with any modern Stage 3 obstacles and I don’t think regularly trains for it bar a few Cliffhanger pull-ups etc. and I could 100% see him jumping at the wrong time, lol.

[sasukewarrior333]

Jan 27, 2023 18:36:26 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Jan 27, 2023 18:28:25 GMT -5 zoran said:

What do you think is his max on stage 3 if he were to make it there?

I’d say absolute max would be Swing Edge, but realistically I can see him failing on the Spinwinder as he’s really inexperienced with any modern Stage 3 obstacles and I don’t think regularly trains for it bar a few Cliffhanger pull-ups etc. and I could 100% see him jumping at the wrong time, lol.

God that would be so insane if he made it to the Swing Edge and put in his best performance since SASUKE 14. Pretty unlikely, but it'd be one of the best moments ever in SASUKE.

[zoran]

Jan 27, 2023 18:42:16 GMT -5 sasukewarrior333 said:

Jan 27, 2023 18:36:26 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

I’d say absolute max would be Swing Edge, but realistically I can see him failing on the Spinwinder as he’s really inexperienced with any modern Stage 3 obstacles and I don’t think regularly trains for it bar a few Cliffhanger pull-ups etc. and I could 100% see him jumping at the wrong time, lol.

God that would be so insane if he made it to the Swing Edge and put in his best performance since SASUKE 14. Pretty unlikely, but it'd be one of the best moments ever in SASUKE.

Or better beats the swing edge and puts in his best performance since 2003.

[dakohosu]

Jan 27, 2023 18:42:16 GMT -5 sasukewarrior333 said:

Jan 27, 2023 18:36:26 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

I’d say absolute max would be Swing Edge, but realistically I can see him failing on the Spinwinder as he’s really inexperienced with any modern Stage 3 obstacles and I don’t think regularly trains for it bar a few Cliffhanger pull-ups etc. and I could 100% see him jumping at the wrong time, lol.

God that would be so insane if he made it to the Swing Edge and put in his best performance since SASUKE 14. Pretty unlikely, but it'd be one of the best moments ever in SASUKE.

Honestly I wouldn't care how he did on Stage 3, just him being there would be enough for me. Hell, even if he failed at the Spinwinder that would still surpass his Sasuke 17 performance, which he's never surpassed since then, and would end his old curse of constantly regressing on Stage 3.

I wouldn't underestimate Shingo's upper body strength, or at least not to the level that I'm sure some people do. Even when he was like 40, he beat the Roulette Cylinder+Doorknob Grasper on USA vs Japan and tied with Yuuji on Stage 3 (both failed the first Floating Boards transition), has now beaten every single version of the Salmon Ladder, and can also do Crazy Cliffhanger transitions in practice. I'm not saying he's going to do particularly amazingly on the current Stage 3, due to lack of experience and specific training more than anything else, but I'm sure there are a fair few people who think he'll just embarrass himself. Most people thought the same on Stage 2, and look what happened, he would've narrowly missed a clear if he hadn't had his derp moment after the log.

[brz0ny]

Not sure actually. He could continue now and have couple more clears, maybe even get to Third Stage, but its very likely this can also end up being a fluke.

[sasukewarrior333]

What makes me think that it's more then a fluke is something about the way he moved in 40. He just seemed... different, you know? Shingo's pace has always been fairly solid even during his nine tournament losing streak, but something about the way he carried himself was just different in a way I can't describe.

[brz0ny]

Jan 27, 2023 22:05:05 GMT -5 sasukewarrior333 said:

What makes me think that it's more then a fluke is something about the way he moved in 40. He just seemed... different, you know? Shingo's pace has always been fairly solid even during his nine tournament losing streak, but something about the way he carried himself was just different in a way I can't describe.

What I meant is, he is prone to mental mistakes so 40 was a "fluke" because there was no mistakes.

[dakohosu]

Jan 28, 2023 5:50:41 GMT -5 brz0ny said:

Jan 27, 2023 22:05:05 GMT -5 sasukewarrior333 said:

What makes me think that it's more then a fluke is something about the way he moved in 40. He just seemed... different, you know? Shingo's pace has always been fairly solid even during his nine tournament losing streak, but something about the way he carried himself was just different in a way I can't describe.

What I meant is, he is prone to mental mistakes so 40 was a "fluke" because there was no mistakes.

Let’s just hope this mental therapy he had prior to 40, as well as the new found confidence he would’ve had from his clear, has put him on the right track at least for the short term future. If Keitaro could beat Stage 2 for a second consecutive time despite it being buffed then anything’s possible from a mindset standpoint, lol.

[salt]

If he trains the Rolling Log, I can see him at least making it to the Wall Lift. I'm just not sure he has the speed anymore to beat it, though, considering where he ultimately timed out. He's obviously not the same stage 2 speedster he was in the 1-17 era. Though I have no idea if his lack of speed was due to stage 2 rust from not having been there in years, or actual exhaustion. Maybe if he trains stage 2 this coming year, he has a chance.

[cactustiger]

Probably 1-3 more stage 1 cleats and an outside shot at a stage 2 clear

[Cosmic Castaway]

All of it would depend on whether his old shoulder injury doesn't mess with him again, everything else is up to luck.

[lhii789]

I can see Shingo clear Stage 1, 1 or maybe 2 more times, depending on renewal.
It's possible he might make it to Stage 3, at least 1 more time before SASUKE 50... only to fail on Flying Bar (if it's still there) or first obstacle; though, I would be curious to see him attempt Cliffhanger, if he makes that far.
No way he would ever go to Final.

[Ninja Relaxer]

40 was a fluke. Shingo is never beating Stage 1 again unless there's a substantial nerf or he benefits from the extra-time bonus for older competitors.

That's my prediction, anyway.

[dakohosu]

Sept 23, 2023 17:52:47 GMT -5 Ninja Relaxer said:

40 was a fluke. Shingo is never beating Stage 1 again unless there's a substantial nerf or he benefits from the extra-time bonus for older competitors.

That's my prediction, anyway.

If you base this on statistics alone (i.e. his 9 tournament failure streak beforehand) then I can understand the sentiment.

However iirc Shingo went through mental therapy prior to 40 to manage his performance anxiety, which showed because he was on absolute fire on Stage 1. No typical Shingo mishaps or quirks or anything. Sure, he almost ran out of time, but he seemed like a completely different person. And no doubt that his clear has provided some new found confidence in his whole approach towards training etc. If he had like narrowly avoided 2 or 3 near-fails and only just barely cleared I'd be inclined to agree, but his run was smooth as silk. Just compare pretty much any of his last few runs to this one, it was like night and day. Even in his last runs, he's always shown the capability to clear in terms of speed and agility, it's just been mental mistake after freak accident after oversight and so forth. 

Ultimately I'm not getting my hopes up for Shingo to like reach Stage 3 or anything in the future, and sure if there's a new obstacle or buff to Stage 1, I can definitely see him being one of the first to fall foul to such a change. But given what he's shown he's capable of when mentally locked in, I wouldn't count him out from clearing a couple more times in the next few tournaments. Especially given that age seems to just not be a factor for him; hell, he's almost reverse aged in a way. Hasn't had a shoulder injury relapse in 15 years.

[Ninja Relaxer]

Sept 24, 2023 13:29:15 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Sept 23, 2023 17:52:47 GMT -5 Ninja Relaxer said:

40 was a fluke. Shingo is never beating Stage 1 again unless there's a substantial nerf or he benefits from the extra-time bonus for older competitors.

That's my prediction, anyway.

If you base this on statistics alone (i.e. his 9 tournament failure streak beforehand) then I can understand the sentiment.

However iirc Shingo went through mental therapy prior to 40 to manage his performance anxiety, which showed because he was on absolute fire on Stage 1. No typical Shingo mishaps or quirks or anything. Sure, he almost ran out of time, but he seemed like a completely different person. And no doubt that his clear has provided some new found confidence in his whole approach towards training etc. If he had like narrowly avoided 2 or 3 near-fails and only just barely cleared I'd be inclined to agree, but his run was smooth as silk. Just compare pretty much any of his last few runs to this one, it was like night and day. Even in his last runs, he's always shown the capability to clear in terms of speed and agility, it's just been mental mistake after freak accident after oversight and so forth. 

Ultimately I'm not getting my hopes up for Shingo to like reach Stage 3 or anything in the future, and sure if there's a new obstacle or buff to Stage 1, I can definitely see him being one of the first to fall foul to such a change. But given what he's shown he's capable of when mentally locked in, I wouldn't count him out from clearing a couple more times in the next few tournaments. Especially given that age seems to just not be a factor for him; hell, he's almost reverse aged in a way. Hasn't had a shoulder injury relapse in 15 years.

It's more a general pessimism toward older competitors and their chances. Shingo and Kane both beat the oldest-competitor record in Sasuke 40, and while they're both great competitors, it seems unlikely that they could do it again (if I had to pick one or the other, though, I'd go with Kane).

I think the human body reaches a point where the joints can't handle an obstacle like the Dragon Glider. Notice, for example, how many older competitors have failed there, including Yamada and Nagano. There's just something about the dip/transition that older bodies can't tolerate. I consider it a small miracle that Kane and Shingo survived it even once, and I believe they're the oldest competitors to ever do so (unless I'm forgetting someone). But both Kane and Shingo are pushing 50 now, and that to me seems like the cut-off point for successful Dragon Glider attempts. It's also around the age when Yamada and Nagano failed.

One thing working in Shingo's favor, though, is the current level of course stagnation. Pretty much all Stage 1 training from the past ten years is applicable to the current course because so little has changed. No one's going to get stonewalled by some crazy new obstacle like the Warped Wall, the Jumping Spider, or the Flying Chute that calls all their training into question, because Stage 1 (unfortunately) doesn't get major updates like that anymore.

[dakohosu]

Sept 24, 2023 18:01:45 GMT -5 Ninja Relaxer said:

Sept 24, 2023 13:29:15 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

It's more a general pessimism toward older competitors and their chances. Shingo and Kane both beat the oldest-competitor record in Sasuke 40, and while they're both great competitors, it seems unlikely that they could do it again (if I had to pick one or the other, though, I'd go with Kane).

I think the human body reaches a point where the joints can't handle an obstacle like the Dragon Glider. Notice, for example, how many older competitors have failed there, including Yamada and Nagano. There's just something about the dip/transition that older bodies can't tolerate. I consider it a small miracle that Kane and Shingo survived it even once, and I believe they're the oldest competitors to ever do so (unless I'm forgetting someone). But both Kane and Shingo are pushing 50 now, and that to me seems like the cut-off point for successful Dragon Glider attempts. It's also around the age when Yamada and Nagano failed.

One thing working in Shingo's favor, though, is the current level of course stagnation. Pretty much all Stage 1 training from the past ten years is applicable to the current course because so little has changed. No one's going to get stonewalled by some crazy new obstacle like the Warped Wall, the Jumping Spider, or the Flying Chute that calls all their training into question, because Stage 1 (unfortunately) doesn't get major updates like that anymore.

Eh, I can see that, but let's not forget that Shingo and Kane have been training pretty aggressively over the last year, Shingo even more so. Nagano's been in and out of retirement and hasn't really been training much as a result, while Yamada is, well.... Yamada. He started to decline in physical ability, what, 20 years ago? 

Kane is an action actor so is still in incredible shape despite his age, and managed to do what he did with only 5 months of training. He'll have an additional year to practice, and it seems like he's really caught the Sasuke bug in terms of training. Shingo never really lost his edge, as mentioned he still looks and goes like he did when he was younger, he's just been victim of several mental mistakes. Nagano by comparison was already starting to have difficulty with the effects of aging (his wall struggles and speed being the best example of this) in his early 40s. And he still managed to clear the Dragon Glider at 50. Yamada is almost 60 and doesn't even properly train the obstacle, and again, he's Yamada lol. I definitely think with the former two's training regime and maintaining their general athleticism they have a MUCH better shot. I don't think there's necessarily a cutoff for DG clears, more that we barely get anyone of that age who attempts the obstacle and those that do are already out of shape/don't train much anymore.

Agreed on the last point. Hence why I mentioned that given his penchant for choking on new obstacles and generally, any buff to Stage 1 and he's probably one of the first to go in terms of chances of clearing. I think he can go faster than he did, but if we got a, say 10+ second time limit reduction then again I could see him timing out or failing due to rushing etc. Any technical balance obstacles introduced though, and, well... we'd have to see. 

But yeah, as things are going, wouldn't count him out of anything JUST yet.