How many clears if...

[YourResidentKojiFan]

So let's say, in some alternate world, Inui gets brainwashed by ahzoo and subtleagent some random people that think the First Stage needs some pretty significant changes, and is told to change the course to SASUKE 19's First Stage before SASUKE 41. For simplicity's sake, let's assume the exact same competitor field, with everyone obviously being a year older, and the competitors would obviously not train for the SASUKE 19 obstacles (besides the wall obviously) given that they'd have no clue what was happening. How many clears?

[brz0ny]

Interesting results so far, I definitely think 15 is way too high unless we witness unusual amount of flukes.

[dakohosu]

I’d honestly go with maybe 3-5.

Purely from the perspective that neither those in Sasuke 19 nor the current competitor field would’ve really trained for those specific obstacles, because in the former’s case no one bar Bunpei really trained on obstacle replicas, and the fact that every obstacle was either new or modified mitigated any anticipation. While in the latter no one would expect the course to be completely revamped and hence will also be completely unprepared. I mean 35 introduced one new obstacle that was still a lot easier than most of 19’s, and we only got 8 clears, which kind of shows how bad competitors are at ‘winging’ course changes, let alone entire revamps and difficulty spikes.

So I think the overall difference in clears compared to 19 will be based on talent and athleticism alone. While the current competitor field is undeniably miles ahead of the Shin-Sasuke crowd when it comes to Stage 3, imo the difference is much smaller with Stage 1 given how stale and repetitive the course has become, not to mention easier. The fact that everyone just trains on specific obstacles these days will somewhat screw them over when they’re faced with a completely foreign set of obstacles as they’ll have no idea what to do, compared to if they trained more general skills like balance and stamina etc. I still think the current field is more athletic overall than 19’s, especially with a higher number of prolific and dedicated competitors compared to just the All-Stars and a few secondary players in 19, but the lack of preparation and being thrown out of their comfort zones will have a huge negative impact for sure.

The only person I’d bet money on clearing would be Jun, as he’s a parkour guy so he’s literally trained himself to deal with situations on the fly, and he also did beat similar courses when he was like 18 and much less proficient in his sport. Yoshiyuki and Kajihara as well I’m fairly confident in as they both absolutely blitz Stage 1, though neither have competed for very long with their entire tenures being on the same course so even they could choke with new obstacles.

Most of the other big names I feel could clear but could also fail as well; it’s impossible to tell as we’ve been stuck on the same course for so long now so it’s very hard to gauge competitors’ adaptability as opposed to just their degree of specific obstacle training. What I will say is that the smaller guys I feel may struggle as 19’s course is much more reach based with the Flying Chute, Half Pipe Attack etc. The time limit was also very brutal so I feel a lot of the guys who would clear today’s course with <10 seconds left would very easily time out. Like with 19’s time limit you could afford maybe one very small mistake, otherwise you were timing out. I also feel that would cause a lot of guys to rush and make dumb errors, especially now we’re in an era where competitors are used to being able to take 15 seconds to rest before the Fish Bone.

I’d say guys like Tada, Keitaro, Yuuji, Hioki, etc all have the capability to clear but it wouldn’t be a shock whatsoever if they failed on one of the big three (JS, HPA, FC) or timed out due to lack of experience and inability to deal with the difficulty spike. Araki, Suzuki, Shingo aren’t clearing for sure, neither are any of the celebrities for that matter. Competitors like the two Tomohiros (Mutou and Kawaguchi) have an advantage due to being taller, but the former is very inexperienced while the latter has had his fair share of troubles with the wall and time limits recently.

So yep I’d say maybe 4-5; Sato, Yoshiyuki, then a couple of others out of the maybes I listed. Not sure who though, it could be anyone’s guess.

There is absolutely no way we’re getting 15 clears. Until recently we were getting that many on a course that everyone’s practiced for and has been the same for years, so how in the world would we get the same number on a completely unknown and objectively much harder Stage 1?

[brz0ny]

Personally i think 5 is too low. Yoshiyuki, Sato, Hioki, Kajihara, Tada and Yusuke will almost certainly clear, and then you also have guys like Keitaro, Yuuji, Ryo and Tomohiro who also have a high chance to clear.

[kanzenbella]

I'll use the 24 people who cleared for good measure, using a percentile for probability of them clearing. Might include a few other contenders who didn't clear in SASUKE 40 as well for consideration:


---


Koji Saikawa - Could be a solid candidate, though I feel like he'd struggle on the Halfpipe tbh, or maybe the Flying Chute. Plus he hasn't failed stage 1 yet, though he's on easier courses than this one obviously. Could maybe see time running out on him just barely. Clear chance: 40%

Yoshinori Isa - Eh. Probably not, he's about as good as Nakata and Iketani were in their prime, and they had their share of fails even then. Clear chance: 25%

Shunsuke Nagasaki - Honestly I feel like he had a better chance when SASUKE 19 actually aired, and he didn't clear it then. So... clear chance: 25%

Hayato Takasuka - Not enough data to really tell yet, but based on his SASUKE 40 performance I wouldn't put his chances as very high. Clear chance: 15%

Yoshiyuki Yamamoto - Highly likely, seeing as he has a perfect stage 1 record and is one of the most capable people of winning it all. Clear chance: 90%

Masashi Hioki - I think I'd be on board with him being able to clear maybe five years ago, but nowadays I'm not as certain I'm afraid. Clear chance: 30%

Hayate Kajihara - With that display of speed from him in the last tournament, it's harder to see him not clearing tbh. Clear chance: 80%

Ryoichi Tsukada - no. Clear chance: 1%

Jun Sato - Arguably one of the most consistent competitors of all time, only failing once in his whole career. I would say a near certainty. Clear chance: 90%

Tatsuya Tada - Mmmm, I think there's bound to definitely be some shockers and I could see Tada falling victim to this for being slightly too slow. He did make it to the JS at 16 in the actual 19th tournament, and I think he could clear it now... but I think similar to Saikawa hypothetically, he would just fall short or fail at a place no one expects him to. Clear chance: 50%

Naoyuki Araki - Between all of the Morimoto Sedai members, I would say he's the most rusty looking. While I think he's certainly capable of it, I think he won't be in shape enough for it when the time for it comes around. Clear chance: 30%

Keitaro Yamamoto - Mmmm, tough one. While his results are getting gradually better each tournament, his lack of consistency has always been kind of frustrating up to this point and I have a feeling that if this first stage were to unveil, he would run into some issues at places that wouldn't normally give him trouble. I think his chances would be better than some others, but I'm leaning slightly towards no. Clear chance: 45%

Tomohiro Mutou - Impressive speed in the two tournaments where he's made it to the third stage, but with his lack of experience I don't think it's going to be a cakewalk facing some of these older obstacles. Clear chance: 25%

Yusuke Suzuki - Nah. He's aging and his speed is showing more signs of slowing and this kind of stage is unforgiving. Clear chance: 10%

Ayano Oshima - Admittedly this will depend kind of heavily on how much time women will have, but I'm gonna have to go with no on this, especially in conjunction with how far apart the walls were in the Jumping Spider during SASUKE 19. She struggled with that in 40. I also think the halfpipe would be a problem. Clear chance: 5%

Steffanie Edelmann - She's done well on several spin-offs, but I can't say for sure if she's capable of tackling a course as daunting as this one. May have a slightly better chance than Ayano. Clear chance: 10%

Jessie Graff - Definitely has the best chance of all the women, I think. I think she would probably run into the most trouble at Pole Maze or Flying Chute. Clear chance: 40%

Yoshikazu Fujita - Waaaay too rookie for this kind of course, he barely cleared the first stage in 40 as it is. Clear chance: 1%

Oliver Edelmann - Don't think so, he doesn't seem to be the quickest. Clear chance: 20%

Kane Kosugi - Man... perfect first stage record and all, but... he'd be 49 and this stage is just in such a different league than what 40 was. I also don't think he has the speed even though I can realistically see him getting through every obstacle. Clear chance: 20%

Tomohiro Kawaguchi - Probably has a better chance than some of the other veterans here, but I worry about the wall... Clear chance: 30%

Shingo Yamamoto - Naaaaah. Probably wouldn't have the worst chance but I definitely can't see it at the age he's currently at. Clear chance: 10%

Yuuji Urushihara - I think he CAN definitely get through every obstacle but he did fall to the Flying Chute in 21 and the version in 19 is way harder... I think that would be the only obstacle that could genuinely take him down. The main question is if he'd be fast enough... and I cannot say for sure, to be honest. Clear chance: 45%

Yusuke Morimoto - yeah. Clear chance: 99.94913844891840219%

---

I'll skim through some other veterans real fast.

Yamada, no. Akiyama, no. Hashimoto, no. Omori, no. Iketani, no. Nagano, no. Uhhhh... I think Matachi can but dude is so prone to making dumb errors that he could also realistically fail anywhere. Iwamoto probably could get close... Kanno I can't see doing it anymore sadly.

I overall went with between 6 and 10, though I'd probably say it's closer to 6 or 7 than it is to 10.

[dakohosu]

Jan 16, 2023 9:23:15 GMT -5 brz0ny said:

Personally i think 5 is too low. Yoshiyuki, Sato, Hioki, Kajihara, Tada and Yusuke will almost certainly clear, and then you also have guys like Keitaro, Yuuji, Ryo and Tomohiro who also have a high chance to clear.

How can you be sure though? All of these guys’ tenures of success have been on completely stagnant courses with minimal changes, that they train for specifically on replicas and that’s basically the only way they train Stage 1. Just because they can consistently clear the same Stage 1 doesn’t mean they’ll be able to clear a completely different one. Hell, the fact that they train so specifically these days would come at a significant detriment to their chances with new obstacles as they’ll have no idea how to approach them.

Also to play devil’s advocate, a fair few of these guys have shown that they struggle with new unforeseen obstacles. Hioki failed Stage 1 in 32’s renewal, Yoshiyuki failed the Swing Edge in 39, Yusuke almost failed the Fish Bone when it was new, etc. And these are only singular new obstacles, if the entirety of Stage 1 was changed and replaced with much more technical and more difficult obstacles it’s incredibly likely that a lot of these guys will fail. The fact that one major modification to the course from 34 to 35 single handedly cut the clear rate from 24 (also coincidentally how many clears we got in 40) to 8 makes me think that we could easily get 5 or fewer clears with several much more difficult replacements. The difference between 40 and 19’s course is far more drastic than comparing 34 and 35, which already slashed two thirds of the total clears.

Sato will be fine as he’s a parkour guy so his life often depends on his ability to adapt, but everyone else I’m not so sure. I could see pretty much any of them failing on the Jumping Spider, Half Pipe, or Flying Chute, or just straight up timing out as 19’s time limit allowed for next to no mistakes. There are only about 10 people I could see potentially clearing, so I went with 5 to account for the fact that a lot of them are likely to fail in one of the above ways sporadically. Even Yoshiyuki and Kajihara haven’t competed enough times, and have done so on identical courses, so I can’t even say they’re close to guaranteed either.

[brz0ny]

Jan 16, 2023 9:33:34 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Jan 16, 2023 9:23:15 GMT -5 brz0ny said:

Personally i think 5 is too low. Yoshiyuki, Sato, Hioki, Kajihara, Tada and Yusuke will almost certainly clear, and then you also have guys like Keitaro, Yuuji, Ryo and Tomohiro who also have a high chance to clear.

How can you be sure though? All of these guys’ tenures of success have been on completely stagnant courses with minimal changes, that they train for specifically on replicas and that’s basically the only way they train Stage 1. Just because they can consistently clear the same Stage 1 doesn’t mean they’ll be able to clear a completely different one. Hell, the fact that they train so specifically these days would come at a significant detriment to their chances with new obstacles as they’ll have no idea how to approach them.

Also to play devil’s advocate, a fair few of these guys have shown that they struggle with new unforeseen obstacles. Hioki failed Stage 1 in 32’s renewal, Yoshiyuki failed the Swing Edge in 39, Yusuke almost failed the Fish Bone when it was new, etc. And these are only singular new obstacles, if the entirety of Stage 1 was changed and replaced with much more technical and more difficult obstacles it’s incredibly likely that a lot of these guys will fail. The fact that one major modification to the course from 34 to 35 single handedly cut the clear rate from 24 (also coincidentally how many clears we got in 40) to 8 makes me think that we could easily get 5 or fewer clears with several much more difficult replacements. The difference between 40 and 19’s course is far more drastic than comparing 34 and 35, which already slashed two thirds of the total clears.

Sato will be fine as he’s a parkour guy so his life often depends on his ability to adapt, but everyone else I’m not so sure. I could see pretty much any of them failing on the Jumping Spider, Half Pipe, or Flying Chute, or just straight up timing out as 19’s time limit allowed for next to no mistakes. There are only about 10 people I could see potentially clearing, so I went with 5 to account for the fact that a lot of them are likely to fail in one of the above ways sporadically. Even Yoshiyuki and Kajihara haven’t competed enough times, and have done so on identical courses, so I can’t even say they’re close to guaranteed either.

Yoshiyuki-Probably the most consistent competitor capable of clearing Third Stage we have seen in long time, maybe ever. There is no doubt he will clear imo. Also Swing Edge is a stage 3 obstacle so its unfair to compare that here (and you could argue he only failed it due to his height).

Sato-If you probably had to put a whole faith of humanity on one guy to clear First Stage, you would probably put it on him, therefore he definitely clears.

Hioki-Okay, he might be a tricky one as like you said he did fail in 32, and also had some close calls (he also cleared Swing Edge in 39). Still, I am pretty sure he has a bigger chance of clearing than Koji and Washimi and they cleared.

Kajihara-Maybe I am putting too much faith in him as like you said he is new, however I have seen enough to say that he could become new Sato (maybe even clear Cliffhanger).

Tada-No reason to doubt him here, super consistent who was even able to clear during weather issues.

Yusuke-A lot of people have this opinion that he is bad at First Stage because of his Fish Bone save. Keep in mind 16 year old Yusuke reached all the way to Half-Pipe Attack on this exact course, why would prime Yusuke struggle then?

Keitaro-Very consistent at clearing First Stage, but we dont know how adaptable he is at really anything.

Yuuji and Ryo-They are very similar so I will include both here. Obviously they are capable of clearing here. They are also capable of failing Pole Maze.

Tomohiro-His clear depends on if he can clear hardest Warped Wall in history.

[dakohosu]

Jan 16, 2023 15:41:03 GMT -5 brz0ny said:

Jan 16, 2023 9:33:34 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Apologies if I'm quoting you having emptied what you said but trying to prevent this reply from becoming too long lol.

I'm going to play devil's advocate here and say that what you mentioned about Keitaro could easily apply to majority of the current field, especially those who started competing after 28. We don't know a lot of their adaptability because they've largely competed on the same course, and you could argue the main reason a lot of them do well is because they practice those particular obstacles over and over. Tada, Yoshiyuki, Kajihara, Saikawa, etc. have all cleared next to identical Stage 1s, so there really isn't that much evidence to suggest that they'll be able to take down a completely different course. Most of the prolific competitors who started in Shin-Sasuke also failed Stage 1 for majority of the times they competed then, like Tomohiro and Ryo; but again it's hard to tell as they hadn't broken out by that point yet, and this was 11+ years ago so they're pretty much as out of practice as everyone else. Even Yuuji, who obvs dominated that entire era, specifically only trains for this current Stage 1, so will probably be taken aback by the sudden course changes, combined with the fact that 19's Stage 1 was a lot harder than anything he faced from 21-24. Here are my predictions, may come across as a bit pessimistic but I genuinely think 19's course compared to now is night and day:

Sato - will probably clear for the reasons mentioned in my above post

Yoshiyuki - might clear; his Stage 3 run in 39 (Swing Edge fail and Sidewinder struggles) show he's susceptible to new changes. It doesn't matter if it's Stage 3 or Stage 1, the mental pressure of having to face the unknown without prior training is the same. And again, we haven't seen him take on anything except the current course. I'm a bit more confident in him than others purely because the fact that he's very fast on the course implies he COULD be adaptable on the basis that going fast requires a lot of winging it.

Kajihara - might clear, same reasons as Yoshiyuki

Hioki - probably not clearing. He seemed to have been set back by his injury and seemed a lot slower in 40 to the point that I feel he could genuinely time out on 19's course. He also had a fair share of struggles on that format of course, not even making it halfway into the stage in 26-27. I could also very easily see him failing the Half-Pipe Attack, or Flying Chute, or something along those lines.

Kawaguchi - probably not clearing. 19's wall wasn't actually the hardest in history, that was 31's at 5.5m; 19's wall is the same height as the current second wall, the distinction is though that because 19's time limit is so stringent you pretty much have to get it in your first try, and I could easily see Tomo choking here. He also had a lot of struggles with the Shin-Sasuke course similar to Hioki.

Tada - might clear. My only concern is that he isn't the fastest competitor on Stage 1 so he could time out, as well as the fact that he isn't particularly tall so could struggle on the Half-Pipe Attack or Flying Chute etc. He also had a few struggles on new obstacles like the Fish Bone mod in 34 and Dragon Glider in 35; yes I know those were all a while ago but we're now talking a completely new course so it's more than likely something could catch him out. I won't mention his fail in 19 as he was literally 14 lol.

Keitaro - might clear. He's faster than Tada but also has a tendency to choke, particularly on obstacles he's failed before. Yes, he failed the Jumping Spider 15 years ago, but it's Keitaro, everything freaks him out lol. It's also a case of we haven't really gauged his adaptability as he's constantly cleared on the same courses.

Yusuke - might clear; let's not forget that Yusuke in 19 actually aggressively trained for the Jumping Spider which is why he cleared it, but struggled massively on the Pole Maze and failed the Half-Pipe Attack straight after. Sure, he was 15, but my point was that his run in 19 doesn't automatically mean he's going to clear this time round, especially when he's least expecting it. He's also never been the fastest on Stage 1, he tends to take his time as he knows he has sufficient time, but take that leniency out of the equation and he could time out or make an error somewhere. Flying Chute would be my pick if I had to suggest anywhere in particular he might fail.

Yuuji - might clear but less confident than others; he'll be 45 next year so he might not have the stamina for such a long course anymore, and like everyone else is out of practice on new obstacles with how much he trains the current Stage 1 at Matsuda's. There isn't really much to suggest he won't clear, but he also has had a fair few cases of succumbing to pressure, like in 26 and 31-33, and seeing a completely new course and the fact he'll inevitably be wearing #99 might be a lot for him.

Ryo - probably not clearing; he's had a lot of issues with Stage 1 in his career, and when he stopped training on replicas as much between 31-34 he massively struggled, so a completely new course that he couldn't have trained for could really screw him over. I could also very easily see him failing the Jumping Spider or Half-Pipe Attack if he tries to rush the first half to leave himself enough time for the wall, which he inevitably will knowing him and with the stringent time limit. The Flying Chute could also catch him out as he's very short and has failed it before, as could the time limit if he needs more than one attempt for the wall.

Saikawa - might clear. Not as confident in him as I am Kajihara, again we have no idea about his adaptability, but he is an action actor and has done parkour for a long time so he could theoretically.

Everyone else isn't clearing. Suzuki, Araki, ABC-Z, etc. Can't see it happening; they're already too inconsistent on the current course despite training for it for years, so no way in hell are they going to be able to take down a completely new and objectively much harder one.

So yeah, 1 probable clear and 7 maybes, meaning max 8 out of the current roster but I could definitely see 3 of the maybe failing somewhere on Stage 1; probably Yuuji, Tada, Yusuke (I know, shoot me lol), or Keitaro. So I still think 5 clears is possible.

[ahzoo]

First of all, not cool airing my and Subtleagent's evil plan to all the world and everybody like that. I already had managed to get the mind control device set up and everything [hence my recent burst of inactivity], but then you had to air this to the world, and now I'll've to find a way to make Inui rescind that pesky restraining order your post had him put on me before I can actually get him to go through with this for realsies. DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA HOW MUCH EFFORT THAT'S GOING TO TAKE?! lmao

Secondly, and more seriously, the only definite clears I can envision in such a scenario are Yusuke, Yoshiyuki, Sato Jun, and Kajihara.

Yusuke, I don't want to think needs any amount of explanation; while yes, he can be caught out by certain well-known parts of the Sasuke playbook - balance, raw/core strength, and wet Warped Walls.

The thing is, none of the above actually feature within 19's First Stage to any sizeable extent; the Shin era's main difficulty came from the need to now practice a particular set of Ninja-specific skills. As much as we all love to hype up 19 and his early teething troubles as a sign that Yusuke hadn't "figured out" the course, I have my doubts.

While it is true that 27's First Stage was somewhat nerfed [though, not nearly to the extent to the Third or Final], Yusuke was still able to clear it at the tender age of 19, long before he became the machine that annihilates most courses at will. Furthermore, as his actual 19 attempt, and his 22 prrformance showed, he was very capable of the specific techniques required even in his mid-teens; the only unknown being the infamous Flying Chute, which I concede is probably still going to be the main question mark hovering over his success even now.

Lastly, on the topic of speed; Yusuke has ungodly amounts of speed that he can tap into at will, and I welcome anybody who doubts that fact to see him attempting the Final Stage, or any stage with a stringent limit [his two most recent Second Stages come to mind] - Just because he likes to pace himself doesn't mean he's slow.

Yoshiyuki, as I have stated in the past in other places, is the modern-day Kongu - Speed? Only Kajihara is quicker at this point. Strength? The man demolishes the Tackle and Wall Lift as if they were nothing. Technique? Admit it: You didn't even notice the Pipe Slider had been modified until Tada started to slip on it. Endurance? He has been known to use the Planet Bridge as a rest point. The man has it all, and I daresay, had Yamada discovered him a year or two sooner, he would already be Number Five with how well he adapts with every new experience.

The only real mark against him is 39's Third Stage, and the possibility that it could reveal some mysterious Achilles heel within him, but IMO, his performance in 40 and the way that he adapted to its changes, and new challenges that played decidedly against him there make me think that, for whatever reason, he was just out of it by the time Stage 3 came along for whatever reason, and we shouldn't really look too deeply into that other than by seeing what an off-day truly looks like for one of the elite [provided ofc, Ryo and the Rolling Hill are somehow unavailable lol].

Sato Jun is basically a better Levi [20 says "Hello!"], with all of the Stage 1 skill that this implies. Also, he cleared 23's First Stage as an 18 year old, so...

The only way the man could fail this stage is if the Flying Chute's whiplash backwards jump reminds him of a Cliffhanger transition too much lmao.

Finally, Kajihara has slowly morphed into a weird hybrid of Jun and Yoshiyuki, with all of the speed and agility of the former, the and raw, explosive power and ability of the latter, and this lethal combo is too potentially potent to readily bet against at this point.

In fact, going off how quickly he's figuring out the Cliff, I daresay that we could be seeing a future Finalist slowly coming of age before our eyes. And yet, we all are somehow too blinded by the peerless Herculean specimen of humanity that is Saikawa to have ever took notice of it until now. It's tragic, really...

Additionally, were we to also go off most rumours about the Edelmanns being a substitute for him at face value, and therefore logically account for his almost-certain presence in 41 as a result, you can also add Rene to the list of certain clears. I shouldn't have to explain this one by doing much more than simply pointing in the vaugely general direction of his body of work both in Japan as well as Germany, so I shan't. The accolades speak for themselves too much.

These would be all of the certain clears, and while they all add up to five, I feel as if the most important lesson to be had from 19 and 20 was this - Never underestimate the hidden heroes, for the darkness is their moment to shine. Nobody would've predicted that the two clears that we actually got from that course would've been Koji and Washimi, and yet...

There would be 95 other talented people in this field. The odds that at least one of them ekes out a clear somehow are too great for me to dismiss them, so 6-10 [but realistically 6-8], it is.

[YourResidentKojiFan]

Jan 16, 2023 19:58:58 GMT -5 ahzoo said:

First of all, not cool airing my and Subtleagent's evil plan to all the world and everybody like that. I already had managed to get the mind control device set up and everything [hence my recent burst of inactivity], but then you had to air this to the world, and now I'll've to find a way to make Inui rescind that pesky restraining order your post had him put on me before I can actually get him to go through with this for realsies. DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA HOW MUCH EFFORT THAT'S GOING TO TAKE?! lmao

My apologies. I'll see if I can get Inui to drop the restraining order in exchange for me to stop begging him to invite Koji Yamada back, lol.

As for the clears you mentioned, I'd also add Yuuji actually. I think the only things that could catch him is either the Flying Chute or timer. The other four, good shouts for sure, though I am admittedly a little doubtful of Kajihara as I feel like he'd go too fast for his own good, similar to a certain two-time finalist (who could also clear if I'm being honest).

One last thing, we can remove René as I'm assuming that the field would just be 40's for simplicity's sake. Still though, 6-10 is what I'd bet on.

[salt]

I'd say Yoshiyuki, Jun, and Kajihara have the best chance, considering they're all speed demons on stage 1. I'd maybe say Jessie Graff also has a pretty good chance of clearing depending on the female time limit, considering the ANW course took a lot longer to move on from the Shin-era stage 1, and that ANW courses in general tend to not stay stagnant for very long (and plus all the Qualifier and Finals courses consisting of entirely new obstacles). Not sure about other spinoffs like NW Germany, though.

Not quite sure about Yusuke. He has repeatedly failed on the Shin course before, and I'm not convinced of his ability to adapt to a new course.

[sackeshi]

No one would clear, not a chance you have to sprint to clear stage 1. Levi would have cleared with only 11 seconds left.

Quintuple steps- Probably 5-10 fails.

Log Grip- All the clowns falling.

Pole Maze- This will kill a LOT of runs including the current GOAT he was awful at that obstacle, anyone who's not perfect will time out.

Jumping spider- I think everyone over 40 is going to fail because that takes prime jumping ability.

Half pipe- attack likely take out a lot of people.

Warped wall- Needs to be done in 1.

Flying chute- I think everyone fails here.

If anyone survives this I see them all timing out.

Yeah I can't think of anyone who's good enough and young enough who doesn't have a history of failing those obstacles.

[dakohosu]

Jan 17, 2023 16:44:38 GMT -5 sackeshi said:

No one would clear, not a chance you have to sprint to clear stage 1. Levi would have cleared with only 11 seconds left.

Quintuple steps- Probably 5-10 fails.

Log Grip- All the clowns falling.

Pole Maze- This will kill a LOT of runs including the current GOAT he was awful at that obstacle, anyone who's not perfect will time out.

Jumping spider- I think everyone over 40 is going to fail because that takes prime jumping ability.

Half pipe- attack likely take out a lot of people.

Warped wall- Needs to be done in 1.

Flying chute- I think everyone fails here.

If anyone survives this I see them all timing out.

Yeah I can't think of anyone who's good enough and young enough who doesn't have a history of failing those obstacles.

Lol I'm glad someone shares my pessimism somewhat. Especially as most of the guessing games results on this forum are always overly optimistic.

That said, I don't think we'll literally get ZERO clears, given that 40's field was much more stacked on the whole than 19's and we still got 2 clears. Also remember that pretty much everyone winged obstacles back then, so I'm sure we'll get SOMEONE who can do that here. Jun will most likely clear at the very least; yeah he failed the Log Grip in 21 but dude was literally 16 and had only just started doing parkour. But as a professional parkour athlete he's incredibly adaptable as his life depends on his ability to wing moves right and left. 

I think 3-5 is probably a safe bet, given that there's realistically about 10 competitors who could clear, inevitably a fair few of them will fail as the change in course will reveal their lack of adaptability (which we don't know yet cos the course has just remained the same for years), but I do think it would be incredibly unlucky if every single one of them failed one way or another, and again if we got two clears from a worse field in 19 it's unlikely we'll get none this time. This is also why I think 10 clears is also pretty optimistic; a good chunk of the field have next to zero shot of clearing (Suzuki, Araki, ABC-Z etc.), so 10 clears imo would be absolute best case scenario for anyone who has a reasonable shot, which almost never ends up being the case.

[sackeshi]

Jan 17, 2023 17:42:48 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Jan 17, 2023 16:44:38 GMT -5 sackeshi said:

No one would clear, not a chance you have to sprint to clear stage 1. Levi would have cleared with only 11 seconds left.

Quintuple steps- Probably 5-10 fails.

Log Grip- All the clowns falling.

Pole Maze- This will kill a LOT of runs including the current GOAT he was awful at that obstacle, anyone who's not perfect will time out.

Jumping spider- I think everyone over 40 is going to fail because that takes prime jumping ability.

Half pipe- attack likely take out a lot of people.

Warped wall- Needs to be done in 1.

Flying chute- I think everyone fails here.

If anyone survives this I see them all timing out.

Yeah I can't think of anyone who's good enough and young enough who doesn't have a history of failing those obstacles.

Lol I'm glad someone shares my pessimism somewhat. Especially as most of the guessing games results on this forum are always overly optimistic.

That said, I don't think we'll literally get ZERO clears, given that 40's field was much more stacked on the whole than 19's and we still got 2 clears. Also remember that pretty much everyone winged obstacles back then, so I'm sure we'll get SOMEONE who can do that here. Jun will most likely clear at the very least; yeah he failed the Log Grip in 21 but dude was literally 16 and had only just started doing parkour. But as a professional parkour athlete he's incredibly adaptable as his life depends on his ability to wing moves right and left. 

I think 3-5 is probably a safe bet, given that there's realistically about 10 competitors who could clear, inevitably a fair few of them will fail as the change in course will reveal their lack of adaptability (which we don't know yet cos the course has just remained the same for years), but I do think it would be incredibly unlucky if every single one of them failed one way or another, and again if we got two clears from a worse field in 19 it's unlikely we'll get none this time. This is also why I think 10 clears is also pretty optimistic; a good chunk of the field have next to zero shot of clearing (Suzuki, Araki, ABC-Z etc.), so 10 clears imo would be absolute best case scenario for anyone who has a reasonable shot, which almost never ends up being the case.

40s field isn't anywhere near 19s field in my opinion. back in the day only about maybe 30 contestants were "entertainment" and 70 were serious, today we have about 50 entertainment contestants and 20 casuals and 30 hopefuls. Then we have to take into account that everyone had practiced on SASUKE 18 prior so they had a feel for how the obstacles worked, it wasn't out of nowhere. SASUKE18 had really basic obstacles, everything was easy mode IMHO. I don't think 2 people clear if we don't have 18 first and go straight into the 19 course.

We see that these contestants today lack stamina, just look at stage 2 it took people 90 to 100 seconds to clear that stage and even removing the Fishbone for stage 1 people take their damn time on this stage which would work against them. Obstacles like the pole maze Jumping spider half pipe attack and Flying chute use skills that none of them are prepared for.

I also would say whens the last time we had a stage 1 where people had to rush? Rushing will cause mistakes, not having time to stop and think before going will be an issue.

[brz0ny]

Jan 17, 2023 16:44:38 GMT -5 sackeshi said:

No one would clear, not a chance you have to sprint to clear stage 1. Levi would have cleared with only 11 seconds left.

Quintuple steps- Probably 5-10 fails.

Log Grip- All the clowns falling.

Pole Maze- This will kill a LOT of runs including the current GOAT he was awful at that obstacle, anyone who's not perfect will time out.

Jumping spider- I think everyone over 40 is going to fail because that takes prime jumping ability.

Half pipe- attack likely take out a lot of people.

Warped wall- Needs to be done in 1.

Flying chute- I think everyone fails here.

If anyone survives this I see them all timing out.

Yeah I can't think of anyone who's good enough and young enough who doesn't have a history of failing those obstacles.

You seem to forget competitors nowadays are also way better than competitors in 19. Nobody in 19 would be able to beat Cliffhanger Dimension or Vertical Limit if it was introduced.

[sackeshi]

Jan 17, 2023 20:00:50 GMT -5 brz0ny said:

Jan 17, 2023 16:44:38 GMT -5 sackeshi said:

No one would clear, not a chance you have to sprint to clear stage 1. Levi would have cleared with only 11 seconds left.

Quintuple steps- Probably 5-10 fails.

Log Grip- All the clowns falling.

Pole Maze- This will kill a LOT of runs including the current GOAT he was awful at that obstacle, anyone who's not perfect will time out.

Jumping spider- I think everyone over 40 is going to fail because that takes prime jumping ability.

Half pipe- attack likely take out a lot of people.

Warped wall- Needs to be done in 1.

Flying chute- I think everyone fails here.

If anyone survives this I see them all timing out.

Yeah I can't think of anyone who's good enough and young enough who doesn't have a history of failing those obstacles.

You seem to forget competitors nowadays are also way better than competitors in 19. Nobody in 19 would be able to beat Cliffhanger Dimension or Vertical Limit if it was introduced.

Stage 3 would be easy stage 1 in 19 us way harder requires more stamina and has the strictest time limit in history. The Pole Maze has to be done perfect same with warped wall to stand a chance, Jumping spider, Half pipe attack and Flying chute in sasuke 19 required perfection. The current first stage is a cake walk by comparison.

[dakohosu]

I don't think you can definitively say that everyone who competed in 19 who wasn't a joke competitor was 'serious' and/or had a legitimate chance of clearing, and looking at the competitor list and their occupations there certainly were not 70+ competitors who would've taken the show seriously enough to actually be in the running to have cleared. While the more recent line-ups have been a lot more binary in terms of the competitor either being a dedicated one who trains relentlessly or a comedian/joke competitor, back in the day there were a boatload of complete randos, most of which gave joke competitor-level performances anyway. Seriously, the only new clears we got for years were from trial qualifiers or internationals, most of whom were incredibly few and far between. Back then, in terms of the genuinely 'serious' competitors, we had the All-Stars, plus maybe 5-10 other competitors like Shunsuke and Shinji etc. Especially during the Shin-Sasuke era a lot of the secondary players from the Golden Era retired. I'd actually say 19's field was probably one of the weaker ones because it was before the rise of the Shin Sedai and other STQers while as mentioned a lot of older faces had gone, while by that point all of the All-Stars bar Nagano and Takeda were declining.

The number of competitors active in the Sasuke community these days (in the sense that they train like it's their second job) are significantly greater than prior - I'd say a good 30-35 competitors from Sasuke 40 fit into this category. Yes, it's a completely different course that they're not prepared for which is why I was so pessimistic with my prediction of 3-5 clears in the first place, but just the fact that they train regularly grants almost all of them a much better chance than 90% of 19's field.