Best performance by start positions to be broken in 40
Dec 16, 2022 19:14:19 GMT -5
ahzoo, brz0ny, and 2 more like this
Post by dakohosu on Dec 16, 2022 19:14:19 GMT -5
Thought I'd shake up the guessing game formula a little bit.
Which best performances by number do you think will be broken in 40? Specifically, will the competitor wearing that number in 40 beat the best performance from any competitor to wear that number. I'm going to split my choices up into LIKELY, MAYBE, and UNLIKELY BUT POSSIBLE. Anyone I don't mention it's either because I don't know/care about them, or the prospect of them beating the record is impossible (e.g. Yamada wearing 96). Anyway without further ado.
LIKELY:
#24 - Best performance: Stick Slider (Sasuke 20 by Yoshiyuki Okuyama) - Current competitor: Isa Yoshinori - very likely he'll make it back to Stage 3 again, or at the very least time out on Stage 2 which would still exceed the record.
#39 - Best performance: Wall Lifting (Sasuke 2) - Current competitor: Yusuke Goto - I definitely see him making Stage 3 given his potential and the fact that his last two performances were the result of an obstacle malfunction and a freak accident respectively.
#50 - Best performance: Ultimate Cliffhanger first ledge (Sasuke 25 by Yoshiyuki Okuyama) - Current competitor: Yoshiyuki Yamamoto - Technically if he even just makes it to the Cliffhanger he's beaten the record as there were 7 obstacles in 25's Stage 3 vs. 6 for the current one.
#55 - Best performance: Swing Edge (Sasuke 39 by Isa Yoshinori) - Current competitor: Masashi Hioki - He'll probably reach (and fail) the Cliffhanger again.
#75 - Best performance: Reverse Conveyer (Sasuke 36 by Shogo Ugajin) - Current competitor: Keitaro Yamamoto - Even with a time limit decrease on Stage 2 I definitely see him making the Wall Lift at the very least
MAYBE:
#31 - Best performance: Crazy Cliffhanger (Sasuke 31 by Masashi Hioki) - Current competitor: Shinya Iwasaki - He's never competed before hence the 'maybe', but he easily has the potential to go very VERY far as we all know.
#37 - Best performance: Soritatsu Kabe (Sasuke 38 by Yusuke Suzuki) - Current competitor: Wataru Nishimura - Sasuke 40 trials 1st place finisher and a parkour athlete, he should be in good stead to clear the stage, but we've never seen him attempt the Dragon Glider which can easily make or break a competitor's chances.
#44 - Best performance: Swap Salmon Ladder (Sasuke 28 by Koki Someya) - Current competitor: Hitoshi Kanno - I'd put him in unlikely but he's been training his a** off for this tournament and got back to his old physique, and I reckon if he clears the Dragon Glider he could at the very least make it deep into Stage 2.
#73 - Best performance: Gliding Ring (Sasuke 24 by Naoya Tajima) - Current competitor: Tatsuya Tada - With how close he came to clearing the Vertical Limit last time, it's very possible that he could reach the Final Stage, but also has failed the Cliffhanger before hence why he's not in likely.
UNLIKELY BUT POSSIBLE:
#36 - Best performance: Backstream (Sasuke 29 by Shingo Yamamoto) - Current competitor: Shunpei Yaegashi - Sasuke 40's #2 qualifier, he's in unlikely because there's a very high chance he'll just choke on either the Dragon Glider or the Salmon Ladder as a rookie, but he could wow us and make it to Stage 3 given that we don't know much about his abilities (especially because the trials were so poorly constructed and didn't reflect hopefuls' actual Sasuke-speific prowess).
#41 - Best performance: End of Wall Lifting (Sasuke 11 by Kinnikun Nakayama) - Current competitor: Hideki Ajima - I just can't see him making Stage 3, and his debut may well have been a fluke, but if there's no time limit change on Stages 1 or 2 and he gets very lucky it could happen.
#43 - Best performance: First Cliffhanger ledge (Sasuke 4 by Takayuki Kawashima) - Current competitor: Shunsuke Nagasaki - realistically this isn't going to happen, but he is one of the most naturally gifted athletes and definitely has the capability to reach the Cliffhanger, that said with his lack of practice over the last few years (which have been shown in his recent performances) it's very unlikely.
#74 - Best performance: Pipe Slider (Sasuke 11 by Shinji Kobayashi - still one of my favorite runs in the show's history) - Current competitor: Naoyuki Araki - he definitely has the ability at some point in his career to beat Stage 3 and practices the Vertical Limit and Cliffhanger in his sleep (literally in his bedroom...) but given his inconsistency and tendency to choke on the earlier stages and the fact that he did fail the Cliffhanger in his one breakout run this is very unlikely.
#76 - Best performance: Ultra Crazy Cliffhanger (Sasuke 32 by Jun Sato) - Current competitor: Tomohiro Mutou - He would have to clear at least the first jump to take this; he's been practicing a lot more for Sasuke since last year and he does have a Stage 3 run under his belt from the most recent tournament, but imo the likelihood of him clearing the first jump is very very slim.
#82 - Best performance: Reverse Conveyer (Sasuke 38 by Naoyuki Araki) - Current competitor: Ayano Oshima - She's this low on the list because with five consecutive Stage 1 fails and no reference on how she could do on Stage 2 I've sort of lost faith in her clearing, at least in this tournament, let alone getting as far as the Wall Lift as she has shown in practice to also struggle on the Salmon Ladder.
#90 - Best performance: Crazy Cliffhanger jump (Sasuke 30 by Lee En-Chih) - Current competitor: Oliver Edelmann - I wasn't sure where to put this as I've never seen any of his runs, but these foreign athletes every now and again pull a trick from up their sleeve similar to how Rene cleared Stage 3 despite having never made it past the Cliffhanger on NWG.
#94 - Best performance: 1 metre from top of tower on Final Stage rope (Sasuke 30 by Ryo Matachi) - Current competitor: Ryo Matachi - I could definitely see Ryo making it back to the Final Stage this tournament, but with the new rock wall and Salmon Ladder Jugo Dan I don't think he's going to come as close to Kanzen as he did in 30, the only reason he's on this list is because it's been so long since we've seen him get that far he could just come back and surprise us.
Anyway, let us know your thoughts!!
Which best performances by number do you think will be broken in 40? Specifically, will the competitor wearing that number in 40 beat the best performance from any competitor to wear that number. I'm going to split my choices up into LIKELY, MAYBE, and UNLIKELY BUT POSSIBLE. Anyone I don't mention it's either because I don't know/care about them, or the prospect of them beating the record is impossible (e.g. Yamada wearing 96). Anyway without further ado.
LIKELY:
#24 - Best performance: Stick Slider (Sasuke 20 by Yoshiyuki Okuyama) - Current competitor: Isa Yoshinori - very likely he'll make it back to Stage 3 again, or at the very least time out on Stage 2 which would still exceed the record.
#39 - Best performance: Wall Lifting (Sasuke 2) - Current competitor: Yusuke Goto - I definitely see him making Stage 3 given his potential and the fact that his last two performances were the result of an obstacle malfunction and a freak accident respectively.
#50 - Best performance: Ultimate Cliffhanger first ledge (Sasuke 25 by Yoshiyuki Okuyama) - Current competitor: Yoshiyuki Yamamoto - Technically if he even just makes it to the Cliffhanger he's beaten the record as there were 7 obstacles in 25's Stage 3 vs. 6 for the current one.
#55 - Best performance: Swing Edge (Sasuke 39 by Isa Yoshinori) - Current competitor: Masashi Hioki - He'll probably reach (and fail) the Cliffhanger again.
#75 - Best performance: Reverse Conveyer (Sasuke 36 by Shogo Ugajin) - Current competitor: Keitaro Yamamoto - Even with a time limit decrease on Stage 2 I definitely see him making the Wall Lift at the very least
MAYBE:
#31 - Best performance: Crazy Cliffhanger (Sasuke 31 by Masashi Hioki) - Current competitor: Shinya Iwasaki - He's never competed before hence the 'maybe', but he easily has the potential to go very VERY far as we all know.
#37 - Best performance: Soritatsu Kabe (Sasuke 38 by Yusuke Suzuki) - Current competitor: Wataru Nishimura - Sasuke 40 trials 1st place finisher and a parkour athlete, he should be in good stead to clear the stage, but we've never seen him attempt the Dragon Glider which can easily make or break a competitor's chances.
#44 - Best performance: Swap Salmon Ladder (Sasuke 28 by Koki Someya) - Current competitor: Hitoshi Kanno - I'd put him in unlikely but he's been training his a** off for this tournament and got back to his old physique, and I reckon if he clears the Dragon Glider he could at the very least make it deep into Stage 2.
#73 - Best performance: Gliding Ring (Sasuke 24 by Naoya Tajima) - Current competitor: Tatsuya Tada - With how close he came to clearing the Vertical Limit last time, it's very possible that he could reach the Final Stage, but also has failed the Cliffhanger before hence why he's not in likely.
UNLIKELY BUT POSSIBLE:
#36 - Best performance: Backstream (Sasuke 29 by Shingo Yamamoto) - Current competitor: Shunpei Yaegashi - Sasuke 40's #2 qualifier, he's in unlikely because there's a very high chance he'll just choke on either the Dragon Glider or the Salmon Ladder as a rookie, but he could wow us and make it to Stage 3 given that we don't know much about his abilities (especially because the trials were so poorly constructed and didn't reflect hopefuls' actual Sasuke-speific prowess).
#41 - Best performance: End of Wall Lifting (Sasuke 11 by Kinnikun Nakayama) - Current competitor: Hideki Ajima - I just can't see him making Stage 3, and his debut may well have been a fluke, but if there's no time limit change on Stages 1 or 2 and he gets very lucky it could happen.
#43 - Best performance: First Cliffhanger ledge (Sasuke 4 by Takayuki Kawashima) - Current competitor: Shunsuke Nagasaki - realistically this isn't going to happen, but he is one of the most naturally gifted athletes and definitely has the capability to reach the Cliffhanger, that said with his lack of practice over the last few years (which have been shown in his recent performances) it's very unlikely.
#74 - Best performance: Pipe Slider (Sasuke 11 by Shinji Kobayashi - still one of my favorite runs in the show's history) - Current competitor: Naoyuki Araki - he definitely has the ability at some point in his career to beat Stage 3 and practices the Vertical Limit and Cliffhanger in his sleep (literally in his bedroom...) but given his inconsistency and tendency to choke on the earlier stages and the fact that he did fail the Cliffhanger in his one breakout run this is very unlikely.
#76 - Best performance: Ultra Crazy Cliffhanger (Sasuke 32 by Jun Sato) - Current competitor: Tomohiro Mutou - He would have to clear at least the first jump to take this; he's been practicing a lot more for Sasuke since last year and he does have a Stage 3 run under his belt from the most recent tournament, but imo the likelihood of him clearing the first jump is very very slim.
#82 - Best performance: Reverse Conveyer (Sasuke 38 by Naoyuki Araki) - Current competitor: Ayano Oshima - She's this low on the list because with five consecutive Stage 1 fails and no reference on how she could do on Stage 2 I've sort of lost faith in her clearing, at least in this tournament, let alone getting as far as the Wall Lift as she has shown in practice to also struggle on the Salmon Ladder.
#90 - Best performance: Crazy Cliffhanger jump (Sasuke 30 by Lee En-Chih) - Current competitor: Oliver Edelmann - I wasn't sure where to put this as I've never seen any of his runs, but these foreign athletes every now and again pull a trick from up their sleeve similar to how Rene cleared Stage 3 despite having never made it past the Cliffhanger on NWG.
#94 - Best performance: 1 metre from top of tower on Final Stage rope (Sasuke 30 by Ryo Matachi) - Current competitor: Ryo Matachi - I could definitely see Ryo making it back to the Final Stage this tournament, but with the new rock wall and Salmon Ladder Jugo Dan I don't think he's going to come as close to Kanzen as he did in 30, the only reason he's on this list is because it's been so long since we've seen him get that far he could just come back and surprise us.
Anyway, let us know your thoughts!!