Guesses for number of clears for each stage
Nov 24, 2022 17:59:42 GMT -5
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Post by dakohosu on Nov 24, 2022 17:59:42 GMT -5
How many clears do you think we’ll get in each stage? We’ve already had a predictions post but with the lows and highs it’s difficult to gauge people’s opinions on overall results.
I’m going with….
Stage 1: 22-27
Stage 2: 8-12
Stage 3: 1-2
Stage 4: 0
Starting with Stage 1, given that we almost had 20 clears in 39 had it not been for the rain, I can easily see the number being in the 20s here. Especially as the field is much more stacked now than it was last time. I can’t see the clears reaching the 30s personally purely because that would basically be a best case scenario for 80-90% of the legitimate field which is unrealistic; but I went with a low of 22 assuming most of the same people clear and a few new faces, and a high of 27 just because even though the course is easy, it’s definitely nothing on Sasuke 30 which was a piece of piss, and that tournament also had 27 clears
Stage 2 I’m going with 8-12 because I’m assuming there is going to be some kind of time limit reduction. If it’s anything like 15 seconds then I’m leaning towards the former, but if it’s only 5-10 seconds then I could easily see the Stage 2 clear record being matched, if not broken. I would say potentially even more could clear but given how many first timers/old faces a lot of the field seem to comprise of I’d wager a lot of them are sufficiently out of practice to have a legitimate chance of failing on Stage 2.
Stage 3 I realistically can’t see more than 2 people clearing. We know there’s at least 1 Final attempt hence my lower prediction of 1, but given that only 4-5 competitors have a genuine shot of beating the stage (imo Yusuke, Tada, Ryo, Shinya Iwasaki and MAYBE Yuuji) I could definitely see more than one clearing. But I’m still only going with a high of 2 given that no one bar Yusuke has beaten the fully fledged Stage 3 in 7 years so naturally I’m a bit pessimistic. And obviously just because said competitors CAN beat Stage 3 doesn’t mean they all will; I could definitely see a couple of these guys failing the Swing Edge, Cliffhanger, or Vertical Limit, hell even failing Stage 1 or 2 in a freak accident. Bad luck does occur in Sasuke.
Stage 4 no one’s winning for sure. They would’ve teased a Kanzen if this was the case, as we’ve seen it’s pissing it down with rain, and Inui would never allow a competitor to beat a Final in its introductory tournament for sure (Sasuke 27 has left the room).
I’m going with….
Stage 1: 22-27
Stage 2: 8-12
Stage 3: 1-2
Stage 4: 0
Starting with Stage 1, given that we almost had 20 clears in 39 had it not been for the rain, I can easily see the number being in the 20s here. Especially as the field is much more stacked now than it was last time. I can’t see the clears reaching the 30s personally purely because that would basically be a best case scenario for 80-90% of the legitimate field which is unrealistic; but I went with a low of 22 assuming most of the same people clear and a few new faces, and a high of 27 just because even though the course is easy, it’s definitely nothing on Sasuke 30 which was a piece of piss, and that tournament also had 27 clears
Stage 2 I’m going with 8-12 because I’m assuming there is going to be some kind of time limit reduction. If it’s anything like 15 seconds then I’m leaning towards the former, but if it’s only 5-10 seconds then I could easily see the Stage 2 clear record being matched, if not broken. I would say potentially even more could clear but given how many first timers/old faces a lot of the field seem to comprise of I’d wager a lot of them are sufficiently out of practice to have a legitimate chance of failing on Stage 2.
Stage 3 I realistically can’t see more than 2 people clearing. We know there’s at least 1 Final attempt hence my lower prediction of 1, but given that only 4-5 competitors have a genuine shot of beating the stage (imo Yusuke, Tada, Ryo, Shinya Iwasaki and MAYBE Yuuji) I could definitely see more than one clearing. But I’m still only going with a high of 2 given that no one bar Yusuke has beaten the fully fledged Stage 3 in 7 years so naturally I’m a bit pessimistic. And obviously just because said competitors CAN beat Stage 3 doesn’t mean they all will; I could definitely see a couple of these guys failing the Swing Edge, Cliffhanger, or Vertical Limit, hell even failing Stage 1 or 2 in a freak accident. Bad luck does occur in Sasuke.
Stage 4 no one’s winning for sure. They would’ve teased a Kanzen if this was the case, as we’ve seen it’s pissing it down with rain, and Inui would never allow a competitor to beat a Final in its introductory tournament for sure (Sasuke 27 has left the room).
