|
|
Post by andrianharinata95 on Nov 18, 2022 9:24:14 GMT -5
In SASUKE 1, Kiyomi Inoue completed the First Stage at the age of 44, and 25 years later, his record as the oldest ever competitor to complete the First Stage is still unbroken by other competitors. Will SASUKE 40 see that record being broken? Feel free to leave your vote and opinion here. Thank you.
|
|
|
|
Post by dakohosu on Nov 18, 2022 10:04:26 GMT -5
I’m not actually sure about this one but I’m leaning towards no. If Yuuji or Suzuki were 45 then I’d say yes but both are the same age as Inoue was when he set the record.
The only legitimate chances are Matsuda and Kane, because let’s be honest Shingo isn’t clearing and neither is Nagano as both haven’t cleared in years and aren’t making it past the Dragon Glider. Even if Nagano cleared the obstacle he’s failing the wall for sure as he struggled on it even 10 years ago, and Shingo’s way too inconsistent/is almost defo going to have another Shingo moment.
Kane I wouldn’t have positioned as a potential clear initially but seeing him practice in his most recent video I’m a bit more confident; initially I assumed he just rocked up. I still think it’s pretty unlikely though, given he hasn’t competed in 21 years and he still failed the Dragon Glider in practice 90% of the time. I reckon that’s what’s going to take him out almost definitely.
Matsuda I’ve pretty much lost hope in as he’s now failed Stage 1 eight for eight and seems to be pretty inconsistent as to where he fails, which mitigates any potential confidence I’d have in him. He could fail the wall again, he could fail the Dragon Glider or Fish Bone again. He could also clear, but I’m only going by the statistics here; he’s also only getting older. He is more likely to clear than Shingo who I sort of put him in the same bracket as, given that both are the same age and are both equally inconsistent despite having the potential to clear, but that’s not really saying much given that I’m calling now that Shingo is at best failing the Dragon Glider.
|
|
|
|
Post by YourResidentKojiFan on Nov 18, 2022 10:05:59 GMT -5
Honestly, I can't say either yes or no, cause I'm not sure. I don't know Inoue's birthday and I can't find any evidence that he has a Japanese wiki page, (if anyone does know his birthday though please lmk) so I can't say for certain that Yuuji or Suzuki, the only two at that age or above that I think can clear, (sorry Kane) are older than he was, as the former, when adjusted for the date of filming, would be 44 years, 2 months, and 1 day old at the time of his run, and the latter would be 44 years, 1 month, and 19 days old. So with that in mind, I'm leaning toward a no cause it's what the math says, but who knows. Maybe Matsuda will clear and make us all lose our minds.
|
|
|
|
Post by dakohosu on Nov 18, 2022 10:17:12 GMT -5
Honestly, I can't say either yes or no, cause I'm not sure. I don't know Inoue's birthday and I can't find any evidence that he has a Japanese wiki page, (if anyone does know his birthday though please lmk) so I can't say for certain that Yuuji or Suzuki, the only two at that age or above that I think can clear, (sorry Kane) are older than he was, as the former, when adjusted for the date of filming, would be 44 years, 2 months, and 1 day old at the time of his run, and the latter would be 44 years, 1 month, and 19 days old. So with that in mind, I'm leaning toward a no cause it's what the math says, but who knows. Maybe Matsuda will clear and make us all lose our minds. Suzuki is also pretty inconsistent at that as well, he’s never cleared in back to back tournaments so there’s a good chance he could have another bad run this time round. My money would be Yuuji but yeah statistically it’s unlikely (<20% chance) that he’d be older than Inoue in terms of months and days. It’s much easier to just go with anyone who’s 45+, which is fine given that both will be 45 in the next tournament anyway. |
|
|
|
Post by ahzoo on Nov 18, 2022 11:00:06 GMT -5
So, in order for this record to be tied one of Suzuki Yusuke [3977] or Urusihara Yuuji [3999] have to beat Stage 1.
This part is almost certain to happen, and I don't think anyone here will wish to dispute that, given what we know of the actual course.
Suzuki made the Third Stage last time out, and Yuuji certainly would have were the Warped Wall dry during his run. As the trailer has explicitly revealed that the only rain we'll see in this tournament, we'll see during the Final, the matter of this record being at the very least tied is more-or-less resolved in favour of S40.
That said, in order to break it, we have a rather intruiging mix of possible names whom I'll just run through:
3903 - Torisawa [50]: LMAO, never going to happen, not even with an infinite time-limit and an ungodly mix of PEDs inside of his system.
Odds for - Mass of the Sun in kilograms/1
3911 - Honma Takashi [53]: Were it not for 38, I'd just reuse Torisawa's line, but given what we saw back then, it would take the ultimate fluke to ever happen, but it's not totally outwith the realm of possibility, even if one'd've to be a madman to ever think it's going to realistically happen without a strong backwind, and possible divine intervention.
Odds for - 5,000/1 [hopefully someone will get this reference lol]
3940 - Matsuda Daisuke [47]: Lots of close calls, but Just. Can't. Quite get over the final hurdle as of yet, but still consistently good enough and demonstrably reliable for me to put him as a definite "maybe" - if there are over say 23ish clears, he's bound to be one of them IMO.
Odds for - 5/1
3946 - Iketani Naoki [49]: A spent star sadly, likely to fail at the Fish Bone or thereabouts as we lament just how great he used to be back as a reliable Third Stage filler act some 5 eras ago. Nothing else to say, really.
Odds for - 500/1
3957 - Omori Akira [54]: God, do you remember how great he used to be, back in the days before the Cliffhanger existed, and one needed to know how to use a trampoline effectively to have a hope in hell of beating the First Sta- oh, he's already snuffed it. Still the OG All-Star though.
Odds for - 1,000/1 [Seriously, it's insane to think about how quickly and effectively the Jump Hang killed this man's Sasuke career, and even more insane to read about and realise that he'd never clear it, or any other trampoline obstacles ever, assuming the Rolling Marta hadn't ended his runs first.]
3991 - Kane Kosugi [48]: Fun fact, in the 31 tournament gap between S8's robbery and this one, Kane had always stated that he only wanted to come back to the tournament whenever he had the time to practice for it and compete on a high level expected of him. All of the footage we've seen thus far vindicates him as a man of his word, as does the fact that he's doing so in order to put his legendary streak on the line.
If anyone were to do it in a normal tournament, it'd be him.
Considering this is not actually that difficult a course at this point...
Odds for - 3/2
3995 - Shingo [48]: At this point, he's basically a worse Daisuke in terms of what we know about him and his current ceiling. If he were to clear it, this is objectively a domination tournament, but at the same time, we can be content that he can clear it and still pass a drugs test afterwards, unlike certain other competitors on this list lol.
Odds for - 20/1
3996 - Yamada [57]. I'm not sure even Yamada himself believes that there is any chance in hell that he clears the stage, but that's not why he's doing it anymore realistically, as much as he's still probably more likely to do so than Honma. I do wish Inui got this memo though, and put him at 3950 along with his KuroTora, as that's objectively where he's best utilised, and would probably choose himself to run if it were up to him.
Odds for - 3,500/1
3997 - Akiyama [49]: This man has been legally blind for well over a decade at this point, and his condition has prevented him from having any hope of clearing the First Stage as far back as 15. It's a crying shame to say this, but it is physically impossible for him to clear this stage, and the better conversation at this point IMO would be what manner of obstacle modifications would Inui need to invest in in order to give him a fair shot.
Odds for - [regretably] 10,000/1
3998 - Nagano Makoto [50]: Realistically, given his performances from 30 onwards, the only major obstacles the man has to face are those of the Dragon Glider and Warped Walls. I'm not too certain these are in any way insurmountable for him, but at the same time, were he to fail at them, I wouldn't be shocked at all. It would be a tall ask for him, doubly so given how 30 was 7 years ago, but, at the same time, let's be real: Nagano never had had too tall an ask for his abilities.
Odds for - 2/3
Having gone through each of the valid options individually, the more that I think about it, the answer is far more likely to be a "yes" than a "no", however implausible it may sound to others.
40 might well and truly be the new 30 as Dakohsu likes to say after all.
|
|
|
|
Post by therealkksworld on Dec 1, 2022 12:47:14 GMT -5
Honestly, I can't say either yes or no, cause I'm not sure. I don't know Inoue's birthday and I can't find any evidence that he has a Japanese wiki page, (if anyone does know his birthday though please lmk) so I can't say for certain that Yuuji or Suzuki, the only two at that age or above that I think can clear, (sorry Kane) are older than he was, as the former, when adjusted for the date of filming, would be 44 years, 2 months, and 1 day old at the time of his run, and the latter would be 44 years, 1 month, and 19 days old. So with that in mind, I'm leaning toward a no cause it's what the math says, but who knows. Maybe Matsuda will clear and make us all lose our minds. Suzuki is also pretty inconsistent at that as well, he’s never cleared in back to back tournaments so there’s a good chance he could have another bad run this time round. My money would be Yuuji but yeah statistically it’s unlikely (<20% chance) that he’d be older than Inoue in terms of months and days. It’s much easier to just go with anyone who’s 45+, which is fine given that both will be 45 in the next tournament anyway. I could see Kane breaking the record too. |
|
|
|
Post by dakohosu on Dec 1, 2022 15:02:59 GMT -5
Suzuki is also pretty inconsistent at that as well, he’s never cleared in back to back tournaments so there’s a good chance he could have another bad run this time round. My money would be Yuuji but yeah statistically it’s unlikely (<20% chance) that he’d be older than Inoue in terms of months and days. It’s much easier to just go with anyone who’s 45+, which is fine given that both will be 45 in the next tournament anyway. I could see Kane breaking the record too. Definitely possible, but the Dragon Glider is the big hurdle to overcome. I know it's probably already been said a million times now but in his training video he cleared the obstacle like once out of likely dozens of tries. The real thing is going to be of a slightly different specification, and there's going to be a lot more mental pressure involved as well like with the crowd and timer etc. I mean we've seen Kanno countlessly training on the obstacle and yet he's still failed four straight times, Matsuda literally has a Dragon Glider in his backyard and he can't get past the real thing, etc. Kane himself mentioned that you have to get a certain move right 100% in practice to have a shot at doing it in the real thing, and I trust his judgment as he's literally an action actor who's paid to execute certain set pieces under the camera. If I had to hazard a guess now I'd go with maybe a 15% chance of him clearing but the 85% of me is saying Dragon Glider fail; I can't see him failing anywhere earlier though (or at least I hope not.....). Don't get me wrong, this has nothing to do with the fact that he's 48 years old, if anything he's probably in even better shape now than he was back in the day as he's had an extra 20+ years to be an action actor. But coming back to Sasuke after 21 years and being unfamiliar with the course etc. I can't really see it happening in most cases. I would LOVE to be proven wrong though..... |
|
|
|
Post by andrianharinata95 on Dec 27, 2022 6:20:57 GMT -5
It's been over a month since I made this poll, and today we finally knew the answer. And that answer is a big YES.......
Kane Kosugi successfully broke that record at the age of 48. Congratulations to him!
|
|
|
|
Post by hoseasasuke on Dec 27, 2022 7:00:44 GMT -5
It's been over a month since I made this poll, and today we finally knew the answer. And that answer is a big YES....... Kane Kosugi successfully broke that record at the age of 48. Congratulations to him! Technically it's Shingo's record. He's 3 months older |
|
|
|
Post by Miko on Dec 27, 2022 7:11:39 GMT -5
It's been over a month since I made this poll, and today we finally knew the answer. And that answer is a big YES....... Kane Kosugi successfully broke that record at the age of 48. Congratulations to him! Technically it's Shingo's record. He's 3 months older Andrian's message was before Shingo ran. |
|
|
|
Post by Mk20SSR on Jan 2, 2023 1:47:41 GMT -5
This thread itself aged like fine wine. Imo, not one but two competitors (only counting age excluding date of birth) broken the record has literally shattered most expectation.
|
|
|
|
Post by dakohosu on Jan 2, 2023 13:51:01 GMT -5
I’m not actually sure about this one but I’m leaning towards no. If Yuuji or Suzuki were 45 then I’d say yes but both are the same age as Inoue was when he set the record. The only legitimate chances are Matsuda and Kane, because let’s be honest Shingo isn’t clearing and neither is Nagano as both haven’t cleared in years and aren’t making it past the Dragon Glider. Even if Nagano cleared the obstacle he’s failing the wall for sure as he struggled on it even 10 years ago, and Shingo’s way too inconsistent/is almost defo going to have another Shingo moment. Kane I wouldn’t have positioned as a potential clear initially but seeing him practice in his most recent video I’m a bit more confident; initially I assumed he just rocked up. I still think it’s pretty unlikely though, given he hasn’t competed in 21 years and he still failed the Dragon Glider in practice 90% of the time. I reckon that’s what’s going to take him out almost definitely. Matsuda I’ve pretty much lost hope in as he’s now failed Stage 1 eight for eight and seems to be pretty inconsistent as to where he fails, which mitigates any potential confidence I’d have in him. He could fail the wall again, he could fail the Dragon Glider or Fish Bone again. He could also clear, but I’m only going by the statistics here; he’s also only getting older. He is more likely to clear than Shingo who I sort of put him in the same bracket as, given that both are the same age and are both equally inconsistent despite having the potential to clear, but that’s not really saying much given that I’m calling now that Shingo is at best failing the Dragon Glider. Yeah I’ll admit I may have been a touch wrong here…… |
|
