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Post by therealkksworld on Oct 20, 2022 18:45:19 GMT -5
Since taping is this weekend, let's predict the numbers. Here are the competitors I'm doing and my predictions for them (you can do these or you can do whoever you please):
Katsuhide Torisawa- #3901
Koji Saikawa- #3916
KAREN- #3921
Takashi Honma- #3919
Yusuke Goto- #3985
Honoo-no Taiiku Kai TV (Toshiaki Kasuga and Rinne Sugeta)- #3939-3940
Hideki Ajima- #3981
Hayate Kajihara- #3946
Daisuke Matsuda- #3936
Black Tigers (Soichiro Kawachi and Yoshiyuki Yamamoto)- #3949-3950
Akko Gundan (5 Competitors Including Yoshinori Isa)- #3951-3955
THE RAMPAGE from EXILE TRIBE (Zin, Shohei Urakawa, and Kaisei Takechi)- #3973-3975
Masashi Hioki- #3963
Shimofuri Myojo (Seiya and Soshina)- #3960-3961
Timon D (Yuta Maeda and Hiroyuki Takagishi)- #3932-3933
Wasabi- #3970
Tomohiro Mutou- #3978
Shunsuke Nagasaki- #3969
Hitoshi Kanno- #3976
Yusuke Suzuki- #3977
Yutaka Kyan- #3980
Ayano Oshima- #3982
Naoyouki Araki- #3984
Ryoichi Tsukada- #3987
Hikaru Iwamoto- #3988
Ryo Matachi- #3990
Keitaro Yamamoto- #3993
Tatsuya Tada- #3992
Shingo Yamamoto- #3991
Takeru- #3986
Jun Sato- #3994
Katsumi Yamada- #3997
Kenji Darvish- #3995
Tomohiro Kawaguchi- #3996
Makoto Nagano- #3998
Yuuji Urushihara- #3999
Yusuke Morimoto- #4000
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Post by katoshiho on Oct 21, 2022 7:38:54 GMT -5
Maybe they will put Hashimoto Koji and Asa Kazuma at lower numbers!
And about 14 new celebrities and 15 new coming competitors!
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Post by dakohosu on Oct 21, 2022 13:18:59 GMT -5
Few things to consider when answering this.
Firstly, I feel as though they'll adhere to the recent trends from past competitions, these being:
- Stronger competitors being spaced out more evenly throughout the playing field. Unfortunately I wager the reason for this is to accommodate more joke competitors and comedians without having loads of them in a row, but it's worked reasonably well. They'll also undoubtedly pick the same competitors to give lower numbers, like Hioki, Black Tigers, Isa, and the new athletic celebrities like Saikawa etc.
- Former champions and Yamada in the top positions (as per 38), followed by other top players and inevitably Tomo+Darvish in the low-to-mid 90s; maybe a couple of athletes too, though I don't really get why as they almost never do well and many aren't even that well known.
- 80s comprised of other key celebrities, more athletes, and a couple of mid-tier competitors.
- High 70s to low 80s for female contendors
- Low-to-mid 70s for the dying stars
- I don't think anyone of significance is going to be in the 60s (I remember it being the most insufferable part of both 38 and 39 lol), besides some non-serious female competitors, as per the last couple of tournaments, unless Hioki gets such a number.
- Everyone else spaced out between #1 and #70
With that in mind, these are my predictions, notably sparse of joke competitors as I really couldn't give less of a toss about them frankly:
#4000 - Yusuke
#3999 - Yuuji
#3998 - Nagano
#3997 - Yamada
#3996 - Darvish
#3995 - Tada
#3994 - Jun
#3993 - Ryo
#3992 - Random athlete
#3991 - Tomo (now he's no longer at Per-Adra it may warrant him getting demoted slightly)
#3990 - Keitaro (he's had this number 3 times in a row now so...)
#3989 - Suzuki
#3988 - Snow Man (again he's had this number multiple times)
#3987 - ABC-Z (^^)
#3986 - Mutou
#3985 - Araki
#3984 - Shingo
#3983 - Can Yutaka
#3982 - Ayano
#3979-81 - Female athletes
#3972 - Kanno
#3971 - Shunsuke
#3970 - Wasabi
#3960s - Joke competitors + female non-athletes/celebrities
#3957-59 - RAMPAGE Exile (I really hope they don't compete this time but being realistic here.....)
#3956 - Hioki
#3951-55 - Akko Gundan with Isa running last
#3949-50 - Black Tigers (Whoever gets picked as Number 2 from the trials + Yoshiyuki who's obviously Number 1)
#3940s - Trial qualifiers
#3940 - Kajihara
#3936 - Matsuda
#3932 - Sugeta
#3931 - Ajima
#3930 - Goto
#3901 - Saikawa (because he keeps getting lower and lower numbers and he himself joked about getting #1. I also couldn't care less about what number Torisawa gets, he's not the reason I watch Sasuke)
I admit the lower numbers I pretty much just ballparked; it's impossible to tell these days.
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Post by therealkksworld on Oct 21, 2022 15:23:34 GMT -5
Pretty good predictions. I've already made them so I'm not revising them, but I'm kinda regretting putting Goto in the 80s. Maybe we'll get an Ono Minami and Ugajin Shogo type treatment for him. I also forgot about the Trial winners but I didn't put anybody in that range besides Sugeta at the beginning and Black Tigers at the end. Gotta ask you, when do you think numbers will get revealed?
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Post by m4tt3r0x on Oct 21, 2022 16:00:29 GMT -5
It's always so hard to predict this because Inui seems to almost always manage to throw the most unpredictable wrench into the numbers.
4000. Yusuke
3999. Yuuji
3998. Nagano
3997. Yamada (It's the 40th tournament. I'd be surprised if they don't place Nagano and Yamada up in the top 4 with Yusuke and Yuuji)
3996. Tomo (I can still see them putting him up at the top yet again especially with the retirement threat)
3995. Tada (seems to be around the most comfortable number for someone of his skill to number preference ratio)
3994. Darvish (think this'd be about the lowest they'd place him)
3993. Jun
3992. Ryo
3991. Random athlete
3990. Keitaro
3989. Suzuki
3988. Snowman
3987. ABC-Z
3986. Shingo
3985. Mutou
3984. Araki
3982. Ayano
3977. Can Yutaka
3976. Kanno
3975. Shunsuke
395X. Hioki
3955. Isa
3950. Yoshiyuki
3949. Black Tiger #2
And then I can't be bothered to type out the rest, just refer to dakohosu's list lol that's basically it.
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Post by dakohosu on Oct 21, 2022 17:17:37 GMT -5
Pretty good predictions. I've already made them so I'm not revising them, but I'm kinda regretting putting Goto in the 80s. Maybe we'll get an Ono Minami and Ugajin Shogo type treatment for him. I also forgot about the Trial winners but I didn't put anybody in that range besides Sugeta at the beginning and Black Tigers at the end. Gotta ask you, when do you think numbers will get revealed? I doubt it, he’s pretty well known among the community and has shown on loads of videos he’s a force to be reckoned with on Stage 3. Dude practices relentlessly. He’s definitely no Dai Igarashi or Takaharu Nakagawa, partially because he didn’t get digested or cut last time out, but also because he’s not your typical Stage 2 fodder. Yes he failed the SL last time but it was clearly a freak accident, it’s not like he ran out of grip or anything. I just think he’ll get given a lower number purely because pretty much any new face that seems to do well these days always seems to keep getting low numbers, like Saikawa and Hayate have. They clearly like spacing strong competitors evenly throughout the field recently. Tada would’ve been the same imo had he not made the Final Stage. In terms of when numbers will be revealed, it’ll either be in a couple of days or a few weeks from now. That seems like a dumb thing to say I know, but they always used to reveal numbers right after the show taped prior to Covid, but because 38 and 39 were taped in secret they took their sweet time in releasing them for some reason. I don’t know why, but that was a distinction of those two Covid tournaments. 40 seems a bit more relaxed as there will be an audience, so who knows. I do hope it’ll be soon though. Also FYI I’m pretty sure Takeru isn’t competing as he’s in the US currently. |
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Post by dakohosu on Oct 23, 2022 7:27:08 GMT -5
Wasn’t sure where to write this but I’ve been looking at Shunsuke’s Instagram and he’s been posting a load of stories about food during the times when the competition has been taping. Does that mean he’s not competing?
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Post by katoshiho on Oct 23, 2022 10:10:13 GMT -5
3901 Torisawa Katsuhide
3908 Saikawa Koji
3910 KAREN
3912 Honma Takashi
3913 Goto Yusuke
3925 Sugeta Rinne
3931 Ajima Hideki
3940 Kajihara Hayate
3944 Matsuda Daisuke
3948-3950 Black Tiger (3950 is Yamamoto Yoshiyuki)
3951-3955 Red Tiger (3955 is Isa Yoshinori)
3959 Hioki Masashi
3960 Wasabi
3961-3963 RAMPAGE
3965 Mori Wataru
3970 Asa Kazuma (if possible)
3971 Hashimoto Koji (if possible)
3973 Nagasaki Shunsuke
3974 Kanno Hitoshi
3975 Araki Naoyuki
3977 Kyan Yutaka
3978 Suzuki Yusuke
3980 Akiyama Kazuhiko (if possible)
3982 Oshima Ayano
3983 Athlete
3984 Izumi Hikari
3985 Nagano Kaiou
3986 Athlete
3987 Tsukada Ryoichi
3988 Iwamoto Hikaru
3989 Yamamoto Shingo
3990 Athlete
3991 Yamamoto Keitaro
3992 Darvish Kenji
3993 Kawaguchi Tomohiro
3994 Matachi Ryo
3995 Yamada Katsumi
3996 Sato Jun
3997 Tada Tatsuya
3998 Nagano Makoto
3999 Urushihara Yuji
4000 Morimoto Yusuke
Possibly keep compete celebrities:
Murayama Yuiri, Sato Kaede, Higashimura Mei, Timond, Shimofuri Myojo, Kanechika Daiki
Possibly first compete celebrities:
Noda Crystal, Kobayashi Yui, Hasegawa Masanori, Kato Shiho
Possibly came back normal people:
Sakuma Kota, Ishibashi Taro, Ugajin Shogo, Igarashi Dai
(possible but too little: Kishimoto Shinya, Shiratori Bunpei, Takeda Toshihiro)
Possibly first compete athletes:
Nasukawa Tenshin, Asakura Kai, Takato Naohisa, Aaron Wolf, Nakazawa Yuji
And, 20 competitors that pass the trial.Wish to see Ishikawa Sho, Iwazaki Shinya and NaoTo.
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Post by katoshiho on Oct 23, 2022 10:12:41 GMT -5
3901 Torisawa Katsuhide 3908 Saikawa Koji 3910 KAREN 3912 Honma Takashi 3913 Goto Yusuke 3925 Sugeta Rinne 3931 Ajima Hideki 3940 Kajihara Hayate 3944 Matsuda Daisuke 3948-3950 Black Tiger (3950 is Yamamoto Yoshiyuki) 3951-3955 Red Tiger (3955 is Isa Yoshinori) 3959 Hioki Masashi 3960 Wasabi 3961-3963 RAMPAGE 3965 Mori Wataru 3970 Asa Kazuma (if possible) 3971 Hashimoto Koji (if possible) 3973 Nagasaki Shunsuke 3974 Kanno Hitoshi 3975 Araki Naoyuki 3977 Kyan Yutaka 3978 Suzuki Yusuke 3980 Akiyama Kazuhiko (if possible) 3982 Oshima Ayano 3983 Athlete 3984 Izumi Hikari 3985 Nagano Kaiou 3986 Athlete 3987 Tsukada Ryoichi 3988 Iwamoto Hikaru 3989 Yamamoto Shingo 3990 Athlete 3991 Yamamoto Keitaro 3992 Darvish Kenji 3993 Kawaguchi Tomohiro 3994 Matachi Ryo 3995 Yamada Katsumi 3996 Sato Jun 3997 Tada Tatsuya 3998 Nagano Makoto 3999 Urushihara Yuji 4000 Morimoto Yusuke Possibly keep compete celebrities: Murayama Yuiri, Sato Kaede, Higashimura Mei, Timond, Shimofuri Myojo, Kanechika Daiki Possibly first compete celebrities: Noda Crystal, Kobayashi Yui, Hasegawa Masanori, Kato Shiho Possibly came back normal people: Sakuma Kota, Ishibashi Taro, Ugajin Shogo, Igarashi Dai (possible but too little: Kishimoto Shinya, Shiratori Bunpei, Takeda Toshihiro) Possibly first compete athletes: Nasukawa Tenshin, Asakura Kai, Takato Naohisa, Aaron Wolf, Nakazawa Yuji And, 20 competitors that pass the trial.Wish to see Ishikawa Sho, Iwazaki Shinya and NaoTo. Oh jesus,I forgot Muto Tomohiro and Iketani Naoki. Muto will be 3976 and Iketani is 3972. |
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Post by m4tt3r0x on Oct 23, 2022 12:18:54 GMT -5
Wasn’t sure where to write this but I’ve been looking at Shunsuke’s Instagram and he’s been posting a load of stories about food during the times when the competition has been taping. Does that mean he’s not competing? I'd be surprised if he didn't compete since he was in some training photos not even like a month or two back. I saw the story and as far as I could tell it was probably taken after Stage 1 wrapped up and before Stage 2 would have started, so imo it's still possible he competed. I am however seeing someone on Twitter saying Darvish reportedly didn't compete this year. Of course take that with a grain of salt. |
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Post by dakohosu on Oct 23, 2022 12:25:42 GMT -5
Wasn’t sure where to write this but I’ve been looking at Shunsuke’s Instagram and he’s been posting a load of stories about food during the times when the competition has been taping. Does that mean he’s not competing? I'd be surprised if he didn't compete since he was in some training photos not even like a month or two back. I saw the story and as far as I could tell it was probably taken after Stage 1 wrapped up and before Stage 2 would have started, so imo it's still possible he competed. I am however seeing someone on Twitter saying Darvish reportedly didn't compete this year. Of course take that with a grain of salt. Potentially. Yeah that’s what I thought too, he was at training sessions so he must’ve competed, I just thought it was a surprise given that pretty much every other competitor has been radio silent over the past two days, naturally. Ah yeah Darvish posted on his Instagram that he’s not competing. I saw a while ago that he was pretty ill, most likely Covid and a lot of his posts have implied that it might’ve been long Covid as a lot of the captions have been along the lines of him saying how he’s struggling to run 1 kilometre. Also, ever since 39, he went from posting several training videos every week, to not having posted anything Sasuke related at all. There’s a good chance it’s a mix of him losing motivation due to his past performances (and the fact that at least 2/3 of his recent fails were due to external circumstances as a result of TBS’ oversights) and the fact he’s recovering from long Covid (‘maybe). |
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