Sasuke 40 predictions

[brz0ny]

I think its a good time to talk about this. I will ask you several questions to see what you guys think about them. As far as I know only Sasuke 40 predictions done on this forum was about competitors not clearing stage 1 in long time and if they have a chance to do that again.

1. Do you think any All Star can clear the infamous Dragon Glider (legally atleast)? Wont ask about First Stage clear as thats very unlikely.
2. How do you think Yuuji will do? He is a competitor who can go out in First Stage but also reach Final Stage, so for me its very hard to say.
3. Can Ryo finally reach Third Stage two tournaments in a row, and if he can, where do you think he will fail, or if he will clear?
4. How do you think Yamamoto and Tada will do, considering they are closest to Kanzening first time?
5. Do you think any newcomers (more specifically people like Hayate and Saikawa, or rookies from last competition) will have a notably impressive performance? And no, I do not want to hear about people competing in 40 for first time. You know who I am referring to here.
6. And finally, will Yusuke Kanzen again, or will rain stop him again?

Also, feel free to add your own prediction if you have a particularly interesting one!

[sasukewarrior333]

1. Shingo is the only one with a shot. He does train for it and he has a slim chance of clearing giving his consistency on the Warped Wall. Nagano and Nagano are many years out of practice and I really can't see them doing it.

2. Best case scenario I think he could get to the Vertical Limit.

3. Ryo can probably get to Stage Three given the first two stages will be nearly the same.

4. I can see them getting to the Vertical Limit.

5. Saikawa will probably get a Third Stage appearance and Hayate will get back to the Cliffhanger. Sugeta, Hideki, Iwamoto and Goto can probably get back to Stage Two.

6. Probably not, would likely time out on the Rope Climb if he gets to the Final Stage. Even he can't beat a Final Stage on it's first time being ran.

[azn]

1 - Shingo, for reasons stated above. Yamada and Nagano are probably not clearing it, but you never know.

2 - I can definitley see him mistiming the cliffhanger dimension, and perhaps maybe even him failing the Swing Edge is a possibility also, though In fairness he's also gotten a year to train for it.

I say ceiling is the Final Stage as he has cleared the VLK and I mean, he's not gonna fail the pipe slider again...right?
And floor would be Swing Edge, though I'm also aware that it might become really easy now given the year-long break these guys have

3 - I'm hoping he does. He's probably the hardest to judge performance wise as his past has shown he can fail virtually anywhere, anytime, in any situation. However considering that as mentioned, the course is probably gonna be the same, his main concern in the first stage is the time limit. The First Stage i'm assuming isn't going to be 99.9secs or whatever weird collab bs it was last tournament (hopefully) which could be an issue given his last 3 clears in that stage have been in single digits and getting more and more close to zero (7secs, 4secs, and 3secs respectively)

I'm sure he will clear the first stage (if he doesn't pull a reckless move akin to SK37 or suddenly gasses out and doesn't clear the wall) and the second stage in a perfect scenerio but I'm not going to put my hopes up. As far as the third stage is concerned, i'm gonna have him in a similar situation to Yuuji. He either repeats his blunder from last year, mistimes the cliffhanger dimension, fails the VLK again, or beats the VLK and the Stage.

4 - Unless something drastic happens I expect Tada to make it back to the third stage, and possibly clear it. Given how I had him as my Bullseye before switching to Yamamoto and immediatley regretting it during the guessing game last year, my hopes are up that he once again has a deep run, possibly ending with a clear.

Speaking of Yamamoto (and I'm assuming your talking about Yoshi?) it's the same deal, but considering his Swing Edge attempt last tournament, unless he avenges it then it will be tough to call for future tournaments. Still, I think he will clear the swing edge and finally clear the Cliffhanger Dimension, with ledges that are hopefully not slippery...I hope. As far as the VLK is concerned, I can see him making it to the 3rd section before falling but again, you never really know.

5 - Considering Saikawa nearly cleared the second stage last tournament, he should definitley clear that stage this tournament. If not then we might be witnessing another case of Keitaro Syndrome, which could also be the case for guys like SNOW MAN and Sugeta. Should they do clear however I don't think they'll go far personally, SNOW MAN and Sugeta I can see making it to the Sidewinder, maybe the Swing Edge, same thing for Saikawa.

6 - I hope not, If Morimoto completes the third stage this tournament then it's going to be a serious wake up call for the producers...or not idk. Either way, If he makes it past the Swing Edge, an obstacle which he had difficulty with during training sessions with Matsuda (albeit those sessions were also months ago) then he'll probably return to the final...Unless the Cliffhanger Dimension somehow does what not other cliffhanger has done before and take him down. And as far as the rain is concerned, I'm just hoping the conditions are dry, back to back fails due to rain would be anticlimactic af and his attempts on a wet wall doesn't inspire much confidence.. but again you never know.

[dakohosu]

Here we go:

1. No, sorry. Shingo's failed Stage 1 the last nine consecutive tournaments, so my faith in him is rock bottom at this point. He'll at best fail the transition but could realistically fail anywhere before that given his inconsistency. Nagano is unlikely to clear the Dragon Glider given his lack of training, but even if he does he's getting stopped by the Warped Wall given his troubles with it even ten years ago, and he's 50 now. Yamada doesn't even need an explanation.

2. Very good chance he could make it back to Stage 3, unless they reduce Stage 2's time limit by 10+ seconds in which case he is at risk of timing out as he's never been the fastest competitor, especially on the Backstream and Wall Lift. I'd say the chances of him reaching the Final Stage aren't impossible, but definitely very slim. I could realistically see him failing the Vertical Limit, as he failed the fully-fledged version in 36 (the one he cleared in 37 was nerfed) and the preceding obstacles are now even harder and more grip intensive. He could also fail the Dimension given that he's likely never trained on the moving ledges. I doubt he'll fail Stage 1 as he would've had 4 for 4 in the most recent tournaments had it not been for the rain.

3. A couple of years ago I would've said no, but it does seem as though Ryo's turned a corner mentally and is out of the mental rut that plagued him from 31-35, so I'd say it's likely; similar to Yuuji though he has had troubles with RISING's Stage 2 and barely cleared last time so he may be at risk of timing out if they reduce Stage 2's time limit drastically, which I feel they actually might do given the 15-20+ second clears. If he does reach Stage 3 then I'd say there's a good chance he could clear; he's come the closest out of anyone who isn't Yusuke to clearing the non-nerfed Stage 3 as he was inches away in 36. That was 4 years ago, and he's been training a lot recently so bar a freak accident I'd say he's definitely more likely than Yuuji to clear.

4. Tada is in the same boat as Ryo, in that he's come pretty close to clearing (not counting 37's nerfed course), and on a renewal no less, so I wouldn't be surprised if he did clear. Yoshiyuki's a bit harder to tell; he's effectively cleared the Cliffhanger once, so there's no telling to whether he'll just become another Kawaguchi or Drew who ended up being super inconsistent on the transitions. We've also never seen him on the Vertical Limit so again it's a tough call. I do think he's the least likely to clear out of him, Tada, and Ryo, though, purely because the other two have cleared Cliffhangers more consistently and have also been training for much longer.

5. I'd say Goto or Saikawa are the most likely to clear Stage 2; Goto's been training for years and simply had a freak accident last time round, while Saikawa very nearly cleared. Unless there are literally no changes to Stage 2 including the time limit, I really doubt that the Johnny's Jr guys will clear. They're not really ready for Stage 3 anyway let's be honest, most would just fail the Flying Bar or Sidewinder, whereas the first two I feel could potentially reach the Cliffhanger. Hayate could make it back to Stage 3, but he's only competed twice, so hard to gauge his consistency.

6. Unless they seriously screw up the time limit for the Final Stage then I massively doubt it. I feel as though it'll be a sort of Sasuke 35 situation where he really struggles on the new obstacle, and ends up timing out a decent distance away from the goal. I think that's to be expected anyway; my main worry is that we're just going to end up with a deja vu of 35-38 where he doesn't do that well due to inexperience but then trains a load over the next year and then just wins again within the next two tournaments. Him winning isn't going to happen in 40, but doesn't get around the wider issue. Also, if he struggles on the rock wall as a seasoned climber, then that effectively proves that no one without a climbing background has a shot of beating the tower, but that's a story for another thread.

[therealkksworld]

1. I think Shingo has the best chance, but no, I don't see any all-stars clearing Dragon Glider.

2. I think as long as rain isn't an issue on Stage 1 again that Yuuji will get back to at least the Wall Lift, and probably even Stage 3. There, I see him failing the Swing Edge if it comes back.

3. Yes, I think Ryo is having a resurgence similar to Yuuji. I see him either failing Swing Edge or Vertical Limit, as he's never failed a Cliffhanger before.

4. I think they are both locks to make Stage 3. In my opinion, I think Tada has like a 30-40% chance of making the Final Stage again. I see Yoshiyuki failing the Cliffhanger Dimension.

5. I feel people like Sugeta, Goto, and probably Hideki Ajima will make Stage 2 again. Call me crazy, but I'm thinking Iwamoto has a 50/50 chance at making Stage 3. Then, I think Saikawa and Hayate will get to Stage 3 fairly easily, with Hayate having a very impressive run, potentially beating the Cliffhanger Dimension.

6. Maybe, we haven't seen Yusuke on the Swing Edge before, but if he can conquer it, he's got a great shot at taking down the mountain again.

[dakohosu]

Oct 19, 2022 7:17:49 GMT -5 therealkksworld said:

1. I think Shingo has the best chance, but no, I don't see any all-stars clearing Dragon Glider.

2. I think as long as rain isn't an issue on Stage 1 again that Yuuji will get back to at least the Wall Lift, and probably even Stage 3. There, I see him failing the Swing Edge if it comes back.

3. Yes, I think Ryo is having a resurgence similar to Yuuji. I see him either failing Swing Edge or Vertical Limit, as he's never failed a Cliffhanger before.

4. I think they are both locks to make Stage 3. In my opinion, I think Tada has like a 30-40% chance of making the Final Stage again. I see Yoshiyuki failing the Cliffhanger Dimension.

5. I feel people like Sugeta, Goto, and probably Hideki Ajima will make Stage 2 again. Call me crazy, but I'm thinking Iwamoto has a 50/50 chance at making Stage 3. Then, I think Saikawa and Hayate will get to Stage 3 fairly easily, with Hayate having a very impressive run, potentially beating the Cliffhanger Dimension.

6. Maybe, we haven't seen Yusuke on the Swing Edge before, but if he can conquer it, he's got a great shot at taking down the mountain again.

A part of me feels as though the Swing Edge isn't going to be nearly as much of an issue this time as it was in 39, given that it's a highly technical/specific movement which is why it felled a few veterans because they just didn't know how to work it out in lack of experience or technique. Because it made its mark last year, everyone's trained for it aggressively over the last year, so I don't see it taking anyone out except for the weaker competitors, who are more likely to fall prey to the new Sidewinder regardless. Remember how competitors struggled on the Planet Bridge in 35 and then afterwards it became a non-issue. The Swing Edge is obviously a different beast as it's much more do-or-die and hence is way easier to make a fatal/unrecoverable error, but I can't see Ryo or Yoshiyuki failing it again, let alone Yuuji or Yusuke. I've seen videos of all of them successfully beating replicas several times over.