Post by dakohosu on Sept 1, 2022 14:19:36 GMT -5
Obviously we can all agree that Stages 1 and 2 are in absolute dire need of change, with the former having too easy a first half and overall arguably getting easier over time with the Silk Slider and higher time limit, and Stage 2 having been re-relegated back to a boring slog of digested clears with the Rolling Log getting nerfed for seemingly no valid reason.
However, opinions and wishlist aside, what do people think will ACTUALLY happen to Stages 1 and 2 for 40? Will there be any modifications whatsoever (including time limit changes) to either, both, or neither stage? If so, what do you think that change is likely to be?
Personally I don't think they're going to make any changes to Stage 1, if the recent trajectory is anything to go by. We had next to nothing for 39 which was a renewal tournament, and given the low-ish clear rate that tournament they'll probably use that as an excuse to keep the course exactly the same, even if said clear rate was caused partially by the rain. I mean ever since the RISING era, we've only ever had any noteworthy changes to the course after 20+ clears; think Sasuke 31 or 35, and they're even lazier now than they were then. Besides, the Silk Slider is staying cos of Covid, the Fish Bone hasn't changed since 37 so is unlikely to do so now, the Double Warped Wall has just been introduced so is defo staying, while nothing else has been introduced or modified recently. The time limit I feel is going to stay the same too; even in spite of 20-30+ second clears it's still been increasing since Sasuke 36, but I'd still be surprised if they pushed it further above 100 seconds as that's already far too lenient imo (and no, I don't count 100 seconds vs. 99.9 seconds for that KIRIN Beer sponsor as a modification lol). I just hope that we get like 20-25 clears this time round, to really push the producers to actually step up and buff the course for subsequent tournaments, preferably focussing on the first half, but after 39's results nah no way.
I think they'll potentially change Stage 2's time limit, but that's going to be it. The reason being that 39's clear rate was similar to that of 36's where pretty much everyone of note cleared and most of those who didn't either came pretty close/just timed out or were noobs, which definitely rendered Stage 2 as being far easier/more underwhelming than it should've and could've been, and they obviously responded to 36's clear rate with the Rolling Log. That said, I'm being understandably pessimistic given Inui's lack of innovation particularly on Stage 2 that only seems to be getting worse with time, so I think only a time limit decrease is the most realistic option here. Given that more than half of the field cleared with less than 10 seconds remaining, I'd say a 10 second reduction in time limit sounds reasonable, so 95 seconds. As much as I want them to get rid of the Salmon Ladder Nobori/Kudari, it's survived two renewals so it's obviously staying, same with the rest of the course too. Some people may assume they could un-nerf the log back to its original length from 38, but I doubt it given that I'm assuming the reason they shortened the track was maybe to avoid the log from getting stuck, which they'd obviously want to avoid for future tournaments.
So, for me, Stage 1 won't change, Stage 2 will get a slight time limit reduction.
However, opinions and wishlist aside, what do people think will ACTUALLY happen to Stages 1 and 2 for 40? Will there be any modifications whatsoever (including time limit changes) to either, both, or neither stage? If so, what do you think that change is likely to be?
Personally I don't think they're going to make any changes to Stage 1, if the recent trajectory is anything to go by. We had next to nothing for 39 which was a renewal tournament, and given the low-ish clear rate that tournament they'll probably use that as an excuse to keep the course exactly the same, even if said clear rate was caused partially by the rain. I mean ever since the RISING era, we've only ever had any noteworthy changes to the course after 20+ clears; think Sasuke 31 or 35, and they're even lazier now than they were then. Besides, the Silk Slider is staying cos of Covid, the Fish Bone hasn't changed since 37 so is unlikely to do so now, the Double Warped Wall has just been introduced so is defo staying, while nothing else has been introduced or modified recently. The time limit I feel is going to stay the same too; even in spite of 20-30+ second clears it's still been increasing since Sasuke 36, but I'd still be surprised if they pushed it further above 100 seconds as that's already far too lenient imo (and no, I don't count 100 seconds vs. 99.9 seconds for that KIRIN Beer sponsor as a modification lol). I just hope that we get like 20-25 clears this time round, to really push the producers to actually step up and buff the course for subsequent tournaments, preferably focussing on the first half, but after 39's results nah no way.
I think they'll potentially change Stage 2's time limit, but that's going to be it. The reason being that 39's clear rate was similar to that of 36's where pretty much everyone of note cleared and most of those who didn't either came pretty close/just timed out or were noobs, which definitely rendered Stage 2 as being far easier/more underwhelming than it should've and could've been, and they obviously responded to 36's clear rate with the Rolling Log. That said, I'm being understandably pessimistic given Inui's lack of innovation particularly on Stage 2 that only seems to be getting worse with time, so I think only a time limit decrease is the most realistic option here. Given that more than half of the field cleared with less than 10 seconds remaining, I'd say a 10 second reduction in time limit sounds reasonable, so 95 seconds. As much as I want them to get rid of the Salmon Ladder Nobori/Kudari, it's survived two renewals so it's obviously staying, same with the rest of the course too. Some people may assume they could un-nerf the log back to its original length from 38, but I doubt it given that I'm assuming the reason they shortened the track was maybe to avoid the log from getting stuck, which they'd obviously want to avoid for future tournaments.
So, for me, Stage 1 won't change, Stage 2 will get a slight time limit reduction.
