What would your reaction be if kawaguchi made it to Stage 4?

[zoran]

Obviously with kawaguchi being in a bit of a rut as of late with the wall,this seems unlikely but let's say he's able to turn it around making it to stage 4 like in 30. How would you react to this? How do you think he'd perform in the new final and how would his comeback be seen in the history of the show?

[dakohosu]

Did you mean in Sasuke 39 (where he'd obvs be the only finalist) or 40 (where it's likely Yusuke would also be attempting the Final)?

[zoran]

40 let's say Yusuke doesn't make it

[dakohosu]

Ok fair. I mean it doesn't really matter either way but it would obviously make a difference if he was the only Stage 4 attempt, because it would signify his ability to go above and beyond the entire rest of the crowd. I mean the only lone finalists have been all the champions plus Shingo which says a lot lol...

Regardless, it's fair to say I'd be utterly gobsmacked and I think it would probably be the best comeback in the history of the show. The guy will be 41 by the time the next comp comes around, which would beat the Final Stage age record by 2 years (set by Okuyama who's well-known for having kicked butt in his senior years). The only comparable comebacks would be Ryo in 36, Yuuji in 36-37 and Kongu in 24; the former two still failed the 3rd Stage and the latter arguably did well on quite a stagnant and easy course, and 4 other competitors reached the Final that tournament anyway. Kongu was also in his early 30s so he was kind of in his prime as well. If Tomo were to beat the 3rd Stage, he'd basically be the only competitor to have cleared the full-fledged stage (not counting Sasuke 37 because of the halted CHD and the massively nerfed VL, proven by Tada failing both of those obstacles in his subsequent attempts) other than Yusuke who's undeniably the GOAT at this point, and as I mentioned, at the age of 41 no less. In fact, the version he would clear would be even harder due to the modified Sidewinder and Swing Edge.

Another reason it would be shocking is that Yuuji and Ryo's Stage 3 abilities were never in doubt, it was mainly because they were unable to make it past Stage 1 that they had their respective slumps. Kawaguchi has obviously also struggled with Stage 1 recently, but prior to that he was basically Cliffhanger fodder in most tournaments after his breakout run except for 35 where his VL attempt was pretty crap, which made me at least think he had no chance at clearing anymore/his run in 30 was out of luck more than anything else. So for him to comeback from a supposed rut and annihilate all of those performances would be like nothing we've ever seen before frankly.

As much as I think Kawaguchi is overrated and his best days are definitely behind him, I always love being proven wrong, as long as it involves a competitor doing better than I believe they are capable of doing. Personally I think he has another Stage 3 run left in him, but the more he fails the Warped Wall the exponentially lower my confidence in him is. If he fails the wall for a fourth time in 40 and it's dry then he's going to retire anyway, or so he says.

Realistically, I think the only competitors with a shot of reaching the Final Stage in 40 are Yusuke, Tada, Yoshiyuki, Ryo, and maybe Yuuji (the guy's turning 44 this year but he still goes like he's 25). Keitaro I've basically blacklisted at this point due to his clear inability to perform under pressure, and Araki is way too inconsistent/bogged down by the earlier stages. 

[subtleagent]

Honestly, at this point I see Kawaguchi as best making it to Swing Edge if he gets past his Warped Wall issues. Tbf though he's yet to attempt the Rolling Log in Stage 2 and I could potentially see that being a problem for him given he was dead close to failing Stage 2 in 35. Realistically, I don't see him making the final at this point. While he has shown he can do Cliffhanger jumps he's also shown to be inconsistent with them (only clearing the Cliffhanger twice out of five attempts at it) and he wasn't anywhere close to completing the Vertical Limit either (where he was then surpassed by Tada, Ryo, Yuuji, Morimoto, and Rene in the two following tournaments)

[dakohosu]

Apr 6, 2022 22:37:56 GMT -5 subtleagent said:

Honestly, at this point I see Kawaguchi as best making it to Swing Edge if he gets past his Warped Wall issues. Tbf though he's yet to attempt the Rolling Log in Stage 2 and I could potentially see that being a problem for him given he was dead close to failing Stage 2 in 35. Realistically, I don't see him making the final at this point. While he has shown he can do Cliffhanger jumps he's also shown to be inconsistent with them (only clearing the Cliffhanger twice out of five attempts at it) and he wasn't anywhere close to completing the Vertical Limit either (where he was then surpassed by Tada, Ryo, Yuuji, Morimoto, and Rene in the two following tournaments)

I don't think Stage 2 would be an issue for him now the log has been nerfed; I mean if guys like Suzuki, who's always had issues with time limits, can clear the stage then I don't think Kawaguchi would have much trouble. That said, the last time we had a clear rate as high as in 39, they ended up modifying the stage, so I feel like they'll at least reduce the time limit, so who knows.

Maybe this is a hot take but I don't think the Swing Edge is going to be a huge issue in the next tournament. The reason so many competitors failed it in 39 is because it's a really unique move that obviously no one would've or could've trained for. However now that everyone seems to have got the hang of the obstacle, I don't feel like it'll be as much of a show-stopper, maybe only taking out the more inexperienced. Kawaguchi's also a prolific rock climber so I feel as though he'd be ok on a grip and technique-intensive obstacle.

I don't see him making it past the Cliffhanger Dimension though. The guy has gained about 6kg from Sasuke 38 to 39 which means a lot when it comes to hanging by your fingertips, and he's always struggled on the transitions anyway. 

[subtleagent]

I think that 6kg was actually muscle so he wouldn't be gassed before the wall and he could move the Tackle better. Thing is the problem isn't his stamina so much as it is his footwork and I don't think he realizes that. The rain in 39 snookered him anyway so it didn't really matter there.

Still love how they totally spoiled that he failed the wall during the intermission after Ayano's run (when they showed Yuuji on the start line and you could see Kawaguchi dismounting the wall). I couldn't have been the only one to catch that, please tell me I wasn't the only one to catch that.

[dakohosu]

Apr 7, 2022 9:07:42 GMT -5 subtleagent said:

I think that 6kg was actually muscle so he wouldn't be gassed before the wall and he could move the Tackle better. Thing is the problem isn't his stamina so much as it is his footwork and I don't think he realizes that. The rain in 39 snookered him anyway so it didn't really matter there.

Still love how they totally spoiled that he failed the wall during the intermission after Ayano's run (when they showed Yuuji on the start line and you could see Kawaguchi dismounting the wall). I couldn't have been the only one to catch that, please tell me I wasn't the only one to catch that.

Yeah I agree; he's recently adopted this really dumb technique of only giving himself enough time for 2 attempts even with 30 seconds remaining, not using the entire run up (he often starts his attempt from near the middle of the track), and trying to jump from a low position rather than actually running up the wall. Granted I had a look at some of his earlier attempts on the wall prior to his rut and he seemed to adopt the former two traits across all his performances, but I feel like recently he's tried to rely much more on that jumping technique (it's a rock climbing move so not surprising).

It's part of the reason I found his fail in 38 so irritating personally; he tried to re-use a failed technique and to no one's surprise, it failed again. Sure, 37's wall was supposedly wet but I don't get why he didn't just use his tried and tested former technique of actually running up the wall properly; I mean he's been competing for years and has NEVER had an issue with the wall until recently. He also tried to do the same thing in 39 as well; he slipped on his first attempt due to the rain, but he actually seemed to have good grip on his second, but he still just tried to jump from a low position and predictably missed again. 

I didn't actually catch the spoiler during the tournament thank god, but I did notice during the live chat that no one was surprised when he failed; initially I figured it was just because the rain seemed to make that a foregone conclusion but that probably explains it..... There were also loads of other spoilers as well, such as Yamada being shown wet in a towel during one of the trailers and Shingo in a new change of clothing in one of the pre-air photos, though let's be real neither of these instances were particularly surprising.

[subtleagent]

It never really seemed like the Tackle was much of a weakness for Kawaguchi. At least not in the vein of competitors like Ryo or Yuuji who were both clearly affected by it though the former has adopted a risky strategy to compensate for his shortcomings on the obstacle, while the latter has combatted it to an extent, but is still susceptable to time outs when the time is low. Hell, even Kanno seemed borked by it in 32 and though he did injure himself after beating the Kabe he clearly struggled on it prior to his shoulder coming out on him.

Kawaguchi on the other hand seems like only really having issues with the wall and I think he felt giving himself that extra weight for the Tackle might lend an edge to his issues with the wall, but since the fault lies in his technique that extra stamina really doesn't matter. Perhaps he feels he should give himself more time to collect himself before the wall, but it seems like this strategy is liable to psych him out more than it helps him.

And as mentioned it could also prove counterproductive in Stage 3 as having that extra weight could make his already inconsistent record on the Cliffhanger even worse.

[dakohosu]

Apr 7, 2022 23:14:36 GMT -5 subtleagent said:

It never really seemed like the Tackle was much of a weakness for Kawaguchi. At least not in the vein of competitors like Ryo or Yuuji who were both clearly affected by it though the former has adopted a risky strategy to compensate for his shortcomings on the obstacle, while the latter has combatted it to an extent, but is still susceptable to time outs when the time is low. Hell, even Kanno seemed borked by it in 32 and though he did injure himself after beating the Kabe he clearly struggled on it prior to his shoulder coming out on him.

Kawaguchi on the other hand seems like only really having issues with the wall and I think he felt giving himself that extra weight for the Tackle might lend an edge to his issues with the wall, but since the fault lies in his technique that extra stamina really doesn't matter. Perhaps he feels he should give himself more time to collect himself before the wall, but it seems like this strategy is liable to psych him out more than it helps him.

And as mentioned it could also prove counterproductive in Stage 3 as having that extra weight could make his already inconsistent record on the Cliffhanger even worse.

Yeah I mean Tomo is already one of the bigger competitors so the Tackle would've never been an issue for him. Besides, Ryo's not had much issues with the wall (recently) despite often really struggling with the Tackle to the point that the weights almost come to a complete stop.

So yeah, it's definitely the wall, and I feel as though it's more mental than anything else; I would just fix my technique rather than drastically changing my training approach. Adding a lot of muscle to your legs isn't going to help you much if your technique on the wall is flawed, which his 100% is, but it's going to work as a huge disadvantage on the later stages.

[sasukewarrior333]

I would be very pleasantly surprised. I maintain that Tomo has the potential to still do very well and hit Stage 3 in his 40's.

Provided he can sort himself out on the Warped Wall too I think he's golden. His technique on it in 39 was still poor, but his second attempt he almost got it but slipped a little due to the rain, if not due to the rain he would've been able to reach it and would've had just enough time left to clear.

I honestly don't think he'll have any issue with Stage 2 whatsoever, last time he failed it was all the way back in 24 with a silly mistake on an obstacle that is long gone. His one very close call in 35 was very clearly a one off to me due to him having trouble breathing on the Backstream, as aside from that the slowest time he's cleared Stage 2 with was a comfortable 6.47 seconds left. I also don't remember him having any particularly close calls on Stage 2 disregarding time.

Where the shocker would be for me would be Stage 3. He hasn't cleared Stage 3 since 2014 and the Cliffhanger since 2018. That said, it's one of those scenarios that seem insane to imagine, but isn't even that inplausible. Guy's grip strength is still very strong, even if it doesn't compare with some others.

So overall, unlikely concept but not an absurd one in my opinion.

[subtleagent]

IMO he could still slip up somewhere. Yeah his record on Stage 2 is pretty solid now, but given his recent decline you may never know.

For example, a lot of people thought Nagasaki would never butcher Stage 2 before 34 happened given his first attempt in 14 was well... his first attempt... when he was 17... which isn't all that relevant, and the only other time he had failed was on an overkill Stage 2 in 29 that he would've cleared had the Backstream been fairer. Fast-forward to 34 and 35 where he utterly whiffs the Spider Walk (followed by 4 Stage 1 fails after that). So Kawaguchi could still easily fall into a Stage 2 slump.