Who is more likely to…

[CustomGaming57]

So as we know, these two challengers have literally become one of the dying stars on SASUKE based on their recent performances with both of them not even making it the 1st Stage since 2018.

Therefore, I created this thread to see who people think is more likely to clear Stage 1, provided one of them manages to do it in this tournament. For me I’d probably go with a 50/50 chance as it’s hard to tell because although Shunsuke has cleared more times recently than Kanno, he seems to be less invested in SASUKE despite still being in great shape, while the latter has just suffered from constant injuries but seems to be looking good this year.

In terms of obstacles though, I think Kanno is more likely to clear the Dragon Glider because although he hasn’t done so yet which Shunsuke has, he nearly did so in it’s introductory tournament and that he did it successfully in training during this year’s session, while the other guy just touched the first bar but didn’t grab it like Yamada probably because I read a Japanese comment on YouTube saying that he was hurt at the time. For the Warped Wall though, my money’s on Shunsuke because he’s never failed the obstacle before and even cleared the wet version in 32, which Kanno took many shots to clear and assuming it does pour with rain during his attempt, he certainly wouldn't fare any better with the double version.

[subtleagent]

I think given that Nagasaki has cleared Stage 1 more recently and how Kanno's Dragon Glider attempts have so far been worse and worse each time, I want to give the edge to Nagasaki. Plus Kanno may look on top now, but given how he looked on top in 32 and still blew out after the Warped Wall. Nagasaki isn't anywhere near as prone to injuries as Kanno is and therefore also holds the edge.

Both of them did decently on Matsuda's course in Yuuji's video, but it's arguably easier than the real thing.

[dakohosu]

I'm going with Shunsuke here. The reason being is that his recent failures have largely been mental and due to him not training that much/having other priorities such as career and family, whereas Kanno's have been due to a decline in overall athleticism as a result of constant injuries and being in and out of hospital etc. The former is rectifiable while the latter kind of isn't.

Assuming Shunsuke trained somewhat for the tournament (which it seems like he did given that there's photos of him at group training sessions on social media) I think he should be in good stead to at least make it far into Stage 1; it honestly just depends on if he makes a mental error like he's done in effectively the last 5 tournaments, but sufficient training should account for that as it gives you more perspective on what to be aware of r/e the nuances of each obstacle (e.g. not just walking into the Fish Bone without assessing the timing first, like he did in 37 and got knocked off immediately). Besides, his athletic background as a trampolinist serves him well on the lower body-oriented Stage 1, which showed as he cleared in his first 11 out of 13 tries before Sasuke 36 which is where I felt he started to really mentally 'check out'. Kanno by comparison is almost fighting a losing battle with his consistent shoulder injuries, which seem to always return just as he's getting back in shape. He's also failed Stage 1 for 5 straight tournaments and not cleared for over 6 years now, compared to Nagasaki's 3 and 3 respectively.

All in all though, it really comes down to the Dragon Glider because that's really the ONLY properly hard Stage 1 obstacle now. Both have failed it multiple times, including in the same fashion (both have failed the last jump as well as not letting go of the first bar) but at least Shunsuke showed that he was able to clear it in its introductory tournament no less, whereas Kanno's failed it 3 for 3 and done worse on each of those respective attempts.

Frankly I'd be surprised if either competitor clears at this point, but I'd wager Shunsuke would be able to go farther or faster than Kanno. Either way, if either of them clears, I'm almost confident they'd at best time out on the new Stage 2 which swallowed a lot of veterans last time round like Yuuji and Hioki.

[m4tt3r0x]

If you haven't check out Kanno on Instagram again. He's performing like it's Sasuke 31 again. In great shape and kills the UCCH + VL together. He's my underdog I'm rooting for this year

[Eclipse]

Overall I feel like Kanno is stronger, but given his horrible injury track record I would be worried about his ability to pull through.

[dakohosu]

Don’t get me wrong, between Kanno and Shunsuke I’m fairly confident Kanno would go farther on Stage 3, provided his inexperience on the newer obstacles doesn’t hurt him (remember Kanno last attempted Stage 3 before even the last renewal). Shunsuke’s recent attempts have never been that strong whereas Kanno almost cleared in 31.

But it all comes down to Stage 1 imo as both have massively struggled there recently, and I just think Shunsuke has that better athleticism and lower body strength. Kanno doesn’t seem to train lower body that much from what I’ve seen on social media, instead just training either Stage 3 or weightlifting. Also his injuries have meant he’s obvs had way less time over the years to train and would’ve had to rebuild himself from zero several times. Obvs Nagasaki hasn’t really trained either for personal reasons, but he’s overall in better shape as far as the skills required by Stage 1 go.

Also maybe this is me just being superstitious but no one’s recovered from more than 5 straight Stage 1 failures. 5 seems to be the magic number; Shingo, Akiyama, Ryo all cleared again after 5 straight fails. I’m hoping Kanno’s the same as he’s now 5 consecutive fails deep. I feel that if he fails Stage 1 again then his window is rapidly closing.

[subtleagent]

At this point with both of them it comes down to the Dragon Glider.

[dakohosu]

On another note; how do you think the other ‘dying stars’ will do? Specifically Ryo and Kawaguchi.

It’s honestly so hard to tell with Ryo, last tournament gave me less confidence in him but it seems as though he’s been training the RL+SL combo so I guess we’ll see.

Tomo I also have no idea. I have a feeling he’ll choke on the wall again as he’s facing two of them and in the rain no less.

[Ninja Relaxer]

I feel Kawaguchi needs to re-commit to Sasuke if he wants to beat Stage 1 again. Either he makes a do-or-die commitment, where he vows to beat Stage 1 or quit Sasuke for good, or... he fails Stage 1 again. Half-measures aren't going to work in his case.

As for Ryo, he is hard to predict. Either he trains hard and impresses us all, or he hardly trains at all and gets predictably lackluster results. It all depends on where he's at mentally and how much training he's done over the past few months.

[CustomGaming57]

Speaking of Kawaguchi, I’m pretty sure I read someone saying on the guessing game thread that he does plan to retire if he fails the 1st Stage again and unfortunately, I think he will once again get blocked by the Warped Wall because if he couldn’t even pass the dry and single version last time, then he certainly wouldn’t fare any better on the Ni Ren version, especially as it’s raining again.

For Ryo, I personally think that there’s also a high chance of him at best timing out on the Double Warped Wall because he’s defo not one of the tallest challengers in the SASUKE community and was never that good at the obstacle, even timing out on it in 31 with the introduction of the Tackle and then again in 35. I would go as far as to say that he’d probably have only a 25% chance of reaching Stage 3 as far as I’m concerned.

[azn]

Ryo's floor and ceiling every tournament is so bizarre, on par with Shinji, probably greater considering he's been to the final twice. Considering how he fared the last three tournaments (VL, Fishbone due to rushing and Salmon Ladder due to Rolling Log) where he ends up is up for grabs because he could very well fail due to exhaustion, dumb risk, or the rain. I got him failing on the spider walk due to the rolling log, but honestly he could fail anywhere he pleases.

Tomo should reach the Ni Ren Kabe but after that it's up for grabs. Considering how things turned out for him the last two tournaments, he probably will end up timing out again on the first stage, but in case he does, idk if he's trained for the rolling log so in the slim chance he advances, I'd say Rolling Log

I'm also assuming the rain is gonna fall harder then in SK37 so it would be more of a SK8 Scenario?

[dakohosu]

Yeah I mean I complained about Kawaguchi undeservingly getting #98, but it's doubly bad given that him getting that high a number is also going to dampen (if you'll pardon the pun) his chances of doing well as it obvs rains later during the stage (I'm not sure when it exactly starts raining, but when Takeru was getting ready for his run it was already starting to pour down and he was #94). I honestly have a feeling that he's going to fail the Soritatsu Kabe a third time; he's facing two walls now, and we don't know the height of the walls (for all we know the first could be the standard height and the second could be even higher), and it's in the rain, and he's obviously got that mental pressure from failing it twice already. If he does clear, I feel like he'll time out on Stage 2 as he's never been the fastest competitor and the 38 revamp made things way more stringent.

As for Ryo there's almost no point in guessing lol. Judging by how stale the course is and that he cleared last time, I think he could do again provided he doesn't make a mental error (which again is entirely possible). How he'll do on Stage 2 is up for grabs; I'm sure he learned from his mistake of not rushing into the Salmon Ladder while still dizzy, but I have a feeling he also might time out on the Wall Lifting given that he's struggled on it in the past.

[CustomGaming57]

If Kawaguchi only got #98 again due to him threatening retirement, then it’s understandable.

Also, I believe it started to rain whilst challengers around the mid-high 80s attempted the course.

[dakohosu]

Where did you hear that Tomo was threatening retirement? Seems a bit soon for failing Stage 1 only twice in a row no?

He still seems to very much have his head in the game and trains quite often, it doesn’t seem like a Nagano situation where his interest was clearly gone anyway.

[Ninja Relaxer]

Dec 23, 2021 12:30:31 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Where did you hear that Tomo was threatening retirement?

This post, apparently:

Dec 15, 2021 18:58:55 GMT -5 ArbuthnotBlob said:

#98 Tomohiro Kawaguchi: 14 (He's declared 'retirement' on S1 failure, so I'm hoping for a Yuuji-in-34 power up, but I feel like S2 might get him on first try)

Maybe he posted something on social media.

[dakohosu]

Seems a bit far fetched idk.

Makes Stage 3 six times out of seven from Sasuke 30-36 and then has a couple of late Stage 1 failures then wants to call it quits? Especially as he’s been in the game for a good 15 years now it’s been a huge part of his life.... also him competing is huge publicity for Per-Adra, whether he does well or not.

Either way it’s his choice so I won’t judge. I’m just interested to hear where this story came from. Hopefully that’s not the main reason he’s wearing #98 (like how Yuuji wore #99 when he threatened retirement) and it’s just Inui brown nosing him as usual, but I guess we’ll see in a few days....