I don't think Kawaguchi is finished

[zoran]

Alot of fans speculate that Kawaguchi is basically done based on his 38 performance failing the wall 2 times in a row. However I would disagree, he has shown great consistency on the course since 30, he got the second best time on the 32 renewal and has shown the ability to improve from poor performance's with effective results. For example 34 and 35-36's second stage (improvement of 12 seconds). His fail in 37 was mainly due to the late rain on the course that also caused Morimoto to fail while in 38, it was basically poor technique likely due to him over relying on his height. I think with training he can overcome this slump, he's one of only a few competitors to beat the Dragon Glider in all 4 appearances and his 35 performance was the overall second best that tournament, while yes it was worse than some attempts in 36, the obstacle doesn't play well to his height and larger weight as a result, however with training I'd say he could get past it especially if it's the same downgrade we seen in 37 and maybe 38 with the thicker ledges.

[subtleagent]

I think unless he corrects his Warped Wall technique he's not getting past it ever again. He still got there with plenty of time to kill, but instead of just going for it he just wastes like 10 seconds and for some reason relies on this low foot technique rock climbers use which is ineffective on something like the Warped Wall.

36's Stage 2 was a Stage 2 that pretty much everyone figured out by that point so I'm kind of hesitant to use it for a source (yes I do for Yuuji, but I'm also factoring in that Yuuji was one second away from clearing 38's when I initially thought he'd botch it badly) and I honestly don't think he would have lasted in 38's Stage 2. He could've easily Ryo'd the Salmon Ladder or timed out like Hioki, Araki, and Yuuji.

Done is an overstatement, but I don't think he's a threat to reach the Final anymore considering that he not only hasn't reached it in 7 years, but now 5 people have now beaten his 35 mark I'm not too sure I'd use that for a source either since renewals are usually kind of a clean slate anyway and if current results keep up his 35 run might not be the most credible run (ex. Kanno in 31. Given his last 5 runs, I don't think that's really a relevant run for his current track record).

[m4tt3r0x]

I legit had a dream last night after reading this thread that the Ni Ren Soritatse Kabe was back and Tomo struggled to even get up the first one, and by the time he did he had no time left for the second. For some reason the first wall required you to run through water and grab a rope at the top though...
Alright so disregarding the water and rope...... let's see if I'm truly a prophet during the airdate.

[dakohosu]

Yeah I agree with subtleagent, it depends what you mean by ‘finished’.

I think the reason behind the general consensus that he’s done is partly due to his age. Several competitors have had Stage 1 droughts before, many far longer than two tournaments. But I feel that when competitors hit 40 they immediately become stigmatised as their declines being inevitable, which I think is a bit unfair. Very few competitors even compete at that age and those that do decline it’s more due to them not being able to keep up with the increased difficulty of the course (I’m obvs talking about the All-Stars), bigger family and career commitments, and/or waning interest. Besides, Yuuji and Okuyama actually improved in their 40s; Darvish and Suzuki gave their best ever performances at almost 40. It’s nowhere near as much of a factor as it was 15-20 years ago.

Kawaguchi’s failures are more to do with poor technique than anything; he was still as quick as he was before through the rest of the stage. I’m not saying stamina had nothing to do with it; for all we know he might’ve taken such a long rest due to being tired, though he’s done that same tactic before as have other younger competitors so it’s hard to say. Also let’s not forget that even though he’s failed Stage 1 twice now, he has at least reached the final obstacle both times. If he fails a couple more times and especially earlier in the stage (which is entirely possible given the pending renewal) then I’d be more inclined to say he’s done for, more due to the mental burden of having subpar results than anything else. As it stands, his decline isn’t unrecoverable to the level that, say, Kanno’s is turning out to be.

However, I do think the days of him consistently reaching Stage 3 are over. The biggest hurdle is the new Stage 2; he’s never been the fastest competitor so I really don’t see him getting through the Rolling Log-ified stage, certainly not given that Yuuji and Hioki both failed it too. At best I see him failing Stage 2 a couple of times and MAYBE breaking through to Stage 3 one more time if he trains hard enough for later tournaments, but he’s definitely not going to reach the same heights as guys like Tada and Yoshiyuki likely will in the new era of the show.

[ChiBiJKT48]

Kinda agreed, he is not finished. He however entered the Yamada Syndrome when the wall just seemed unbeatable for him currently. If he fix that, completely sure he gonna regain the much needed confidence back and he gonna be good again.

[Rafas]

I really wanna see kawaguchi show that he isn't finished by making it back to the cliffhanger in stage 3, clearing it or not.

[Dazed (Wiin)]

My boy Kawaguchi is going to destroy the potential 'rock wall' in the final with his Per-Adras to claim kanzenseiha only for Yamada to say he's cheating because of the shoes he's using.

[LusitaniaAngel313]

Considering the last 2 runs make me scream he’s #Casual, a part of me still thinks he can do this. If he fails the same spot AGAIN, I’m calling him out on that.

[m4tt3r0x]

Oct 28, 2021 6:04:51 GMT -5 m4tt3r0x said:

I legit had a dream last night after reading this thread that the Ni Ren Soritatse Kabe was back and Tomo struggled to even get up the first one, and by the time he did he had no time left for the second. For some reason the first wall required you to run through water and grab a rope at the top though...
Alright so disregarding the water and rope...... let's see if I'm truly a prophet during the airdate.

Meant to quote, not edit this. /facepalm

[CustomGaming57]

Inui loves this guy way too much and it’s extremely annoying that he was given a higher number this time which he didn’t deserve. This easily makes him one of the most overrated non-celebrity challengers on SASUKE and maybe even more than Hioki at this rate.