Who’s careers do you think are done for?

[tns8597]

As Sasuke 38 approaches, we see several recurring competitors return to take on the course once again. However there’s often a debate as to whether some competitors are just too long in the tooth at this point.

So who’s careers do you think are done for/won’t bounce back? My number 1 is Kanno: nowhere near as athletic as he once was as you can see from his recent performances; injury after injury meant that he’s not cleared Stage 1 in 5 and a half years now. I don’t think his head’s in the game anymore personally.

Nagasaki and Ryo are a maybe. They’re both still in their early thirties but their performances have been less than stellar recently. Shunsuke I just think doesn’t have his head in it anymore as his fails aren’t due to a lack of skill, more mental errors. Same with Ryo, who’s confidence I think has never been the same since failing the First Stage in the tournament where he was expecting to win it all where he wore #100. Im personally both excited and worried to see how these guys do. I think if either fail the First Stage again this time round then I’d be more inclined to say that they’re unlikely to bounce back in later tournaments.

Kawaguchi I think has started a slow decline since 35, but it’s too early at this point to tell. After all he did only fail Stage 1 last time around and this even plagued Morimoto in the same tournament, so I wouldn’t read too much into that.

[GlobalNinjaFan]

Nov 24, 2020 16:00:13 GMT -5 tns8597 said:

As Sasuke 38 approaches, we see several recurring competitors return to take on the course once again. However there’s often a debate as to whether some competitors are just too long in the tooth at this point.

So who’s careers do you think are done for/won’t bounce back? My number 1 is Kanno: nowhere near as athletic as he once was as you can see from his recent performances; injury after injury meant that he’s not cleared Stage 1 in 5 and a half years now. I don’t think his head’s in the game anymore personally.

Nagasaki and Ryo are a maybe. They’re both still in their early thirties but their performances have been less than stellar recently. Shunsuke I just think doesn’t have his head in it anymore as his fails aren’t due to a lack of skill, more mental errors. Same with Ryo, who’s confidence I think has never been the same since failing the First Stage in the tournament where he was expecting to win it all where he wore #100. Im personally both excited and worried to see how these guys do. I think if either fail the First Stage again this time round then I’d be more inclined to say that they’re unlikely to bounce back in later tournaments.

Kawaguchi I think has started a slow decline since 35, but it’s too early at this point to tell. After all he did only fail Stage 1 last time around and this even plagued Morimoto in the same tournament, so I wouldn’t read too much into that.

I don't think Kawaguchi is done for, but he's definitely settled into a rut as of late. Given the nerfs to Stage 3, he could still MAYBE make the final, but I don't think he's kanzenseiha material by any stretch of the imagination.

It's a similar situation with Hioki, Shunsuke etc... they're solid, but their careers are so static and unexciting it hurts. They may not get worse for a while, but I doubt they're getting better either.

Ryo is really interesting. We saw a while back that he still has the potential to do great things, but he's been way less consistent than even Yuuji as of late. I honestly think he's a 50/50. Any runs that are good will be great, but everything else will be disappointing.

Honestly, I still think Morimoto is the only competitor that truly has a shot at kanzenseiha (plus maybe Tada, I guess). The Final Stage is just a beast, and even if the likes of Yuuji, Tada, Tomo or Ryo somehow break through, I just don't see them having much of a shot.

[Kane-Not-Kosugi]

Drew Drechsel's

[LusitaniaAngel313]

Well I can agree on that Kane. I'm more looking towards Tomo tbh. Even if he DOES get to stage 3, he just seems to lose steam and not make much progress. I feel he's slipping... and even if he DOES make the final, his lack of speed there will cost him entirely. There's a reason why I scream #Casual when I see him these days...

[tns8597]

GlobalNinjaFan well Shunsuke's career is definitely getting worse; 2 Third Stage fails, then 2 Second Stage fails, then 2 First Stage fails. That's a pretty clear trend in my eyes ever since he had a kid his head's not been in the game anymore, which is fine by me as family should obvs take priority over Sasuke (Yamada, take note). There's a hypothesis that him constantly getting digested and not being really part of any group due to his strange pattern of competing throughout both the All-Star and Rising era has contributed to this, but I personally think that's false because he was selected for Sasuke Indonesia.

Ryo's already failed Stage 1 in 6 out of his last 7 attempts; I think if he fails again then it'll really brand his performance in 36 as a fluke, similar to Akiyama's two Stage 3 runs followed by yet more Stage 1 fails. He doesn't practice that much anymore bear in mind; he's getting physically and visually out of shape now compared to how he was in his hay day (just see his Stage 2 run in 36 lol).

Tomo I don't think will make the Final Stage again personally. His recent Third Stage attempts have consolidated this; he'll either choke on the Cliffhanger like he has done multiple times, or fail the Vertical Limit as he wasn't even close in 35.

Morimoto and Tada are definitely candidates for Victory, but personally I think if Araki or Keitaro make it to Stage 3 then they'll be in the running as well. They've got insane speed on the Salmon Ladder in practice which is what's required to beat that Final.

[PizzaKing57]

It is definitely understandable as to why Shunsuke, Ryo and Kanno were dropped down to the lower 70s, given that out of all the promising challengers, they've done the most badly and that I certainly hope one of them will clear in this tournament and get out of their mental blocks. Although I do believe that Shunsuke should have been swapped with Shingo as he's only failed the 1st Stage about twice in a row, while Shingo has terribly failed over seven times in a row and doesn't deserve to get 80s or 90s anymore until he can clear the 1st Stage which is unlikely, as he definitely isn't trustworthy of doing it anymore.

Out of these three humans from 70-72, I will be the most upset if Shunsuke fails, as I like him more than the other two mainly because he's competed longer than they have, since 2005 where he was just a teenager and also a few years later, got involved with the best moment ever in SASUKE history, where he made it all the way to the Final Stage at the youngest age at the same time of Nagano's total victory, no questions asked. If he actually fails Stage 1 for the third time in a row, I'm going to be terribly worried that he might consider retiring as he doesn't train much for SASUKE anymore, like Ryo as he's focusing on taking care of his family and work which I do appreciate that he loves more than SASUKE (Yamada thinks otherwise), but I so wish that he'd return with a vengeance, like Urushihara did in 36 and make it back to the Cliffhanger once more. I do think he might clear this time, as he's beaten the Fish Bone and Dragon Glider where he failed the last two times before and I most certainly hope his run will be shown fully and as the low 70s range in 35 showed all four notable challengers entirely despite all failing the 1st Stage, I think the same will apply to Shunsuke and the other two again in this tournament.

I think Ryo might be able to clear too if he just focuses his mind on the course and doesn't try to rush like last time on the Fish Bone where so far, he was the only person to do this and deserved to get bumped down from the 90s range for that idiotic failure, but I had no idea that he would get dropped down to low 70s and this is exactly like the case when Morimoto on his first appearance picked #91 as a result of the marathon race and after failing early on Stage 1, was also given the lower number of #71 where he only progressed one obstacle further. I think at best, Ryo will make it as far as the Cliffhanger Dimension since in the previous iteration, he only just managed to grab onto the final ledge at the second transition with just one hand and as both ledges will be kinetic this year, I am pretty sure he'll have his first failure there this time. I certainly don't see him achieving Total Victory if he even makes it back to the Final Stage as he's been training less for the show which resulted into him getting a bit out of shape and because of this, he definitely won't have enough upper-body strength to climb all the way up in time, even if some people are still rooting for him to win.

And with Kanno, he is the most unlikely one to clear since he has sustained a terrible amount of injuries probably because of overdoing his bodybuilding too much, he might fail the 1st Stage once again as he hasn't cleared it since 2015 and has had four failures in a row in which he seems to be evolving into the new Yamada and Bunpei because of how he still wants to compete, despite the injuries. I also had a look at the photograph he took with Nagano that was posted today and his body definitely looks weaker, even though his arm still looks muscular. I can definitely tell though that if Kanno injures himself one more time on the course, then he will have to finally consider retiring and if he does, it will totally be understandable. If he positively returns to the 3rd Stage though, there is a really high chance that he will fail the Flying Bar as since that obstacle was reintroduced in 32, Kanno never made it back to the 3rd Stage since then and I've certainly not seen him practise for it either, just the Crazy Cliffhanger. I just certainly hope he progresses better than last time and at least clears with the Dragon Glider which he nearly did in 35, only for one side of the bar to derail itself and cause him to fall short of the landing. At least a return to the 2nd Stage would be a nice surprise if not the 3rd as he's still in his mid 30s which gives a bit more time to redeem himself.

And for the others, I don't think Kawaguchi is done yet although it was an excellent thing that they didn't give him #99 once again for the fourth tournament in a row, as he failed the Warped Wall at the end of Stage 1 last time round, due to the wet weather even though he's one of the tallest challengers which makes it very strange. I think he will return to the 3rd Stage again but is definitely not getting past the Vertical Limit as the triple combo will be too much for him to overcome.

If anybody who I think is done in SASUKE actually provides an excellent comeback and makes it far, it will be very exciting indeed as I really want to see more people clear the 1st Stage than the last tournament, but of course we'll just have to wait until 29/12 for all the mysteries to be revealed and see what happens.

[tns8597]

Shunsuke and Ryo are really hard to predict, because we know their failures have mainly been mental. It’s hard to say who’ll do well between the two; Ryo’s terribly inconsistent, while Shunsuke’s consistently been doing worse ever since 33. I predict as a low, Shunsuke will fail the Fish Bone and as a high he’ll go out on either the Flying Bar (as he’s failed that obstacle three times, including once in Sasuke Indonesia) or fail the Cliffhanger. Ryo as a low will fail the Fish Bone again, and as a high he COULD make the Final Stage but he’s so bipolar it’s really unlikely.

Kanno is the only one of the three I’m very confident won’t clear Stage 1. Even if he does finally clear the Dragon Glider, I think his strength and stamina have depleted due to his various injuries, to the point that he’ll be unable to scale the wall. He’s also had the longest streak of absence from the later stages in terms of time. He’s not cleared Stage 1 in 5.5 years now; to think he’ll make some amazing comeback at this point is going to lead to disappointment imo.