Who clearly wasn't cut out for Stage 3?

[tns8597]

Who do you think made Stage 3 but clearly wasn't meant to be there (e.g. benefitted from pure circumstance) based on their mediocre performance? This is different from worst Stage 3 performances because some of those were simple mistakes. Examples that I would say could be regarded as worst Stage 3 runs but not necessarily reflecting on the competitor's lack of skill were; Shusuke Sato in SASUKE 4, or Ben Toyer in SASUKE 36, given that they would've likely been able to go much further had it not been for mistakes which happen everywhere and to everyone at some point.

[azn]

James Okada and Shoei stick out for me, they both were incredibly lucky with how they cleared the first stage, and even luckier with the 2nd stage, Okada might have timed out but they allowed him to continue anyways, and Shoei took so much time on the spider walk, because the time limit was 100 seconds, he would've easilytimed out otherwise. Okada failed the Propeller bars so that tells you how ready he was for the third stage and Shoei failed the body prop, though I do commend him for going pretty far into it before failing.

Oh and also Darvish too

[tns8597]

Yeah agreed on all of these, Okada more so than the others as he cleared Stage 1 and Stage 2 with a combined time remaining of less than half a second showing how lucky he was (especially as I'm convinced he didn't actually clear Stage 2 in time), then he proceeds to fail on one of the easiest S3 obstacles known to man. Shoei also got lucky but I think he at least somewhat proved his worth by going pretty far into the Body Prop, especially as around that time a lot of competitors were failing really early on it. Darvish I think deserved to make Stage 3 given that he had little trouble with Stages 1 and 2, but he was definitely the weakest link out of the cohort by far.

A couple I'd like to add:
- Yusuke Suzuki in SASUKE 32: definitely struck me as the weakest link in Stage 3, given that he had the slowest time in Stage 1 and really only made it that far because of the p*** easy Stage 2. He also came super close to having the earliest ever Stage 3 fail, given that he nearly slipped on the first Drum Hopper transition which would've been so embarrassing.

- Daisuke Miyazaki in SASUKE 21: actually did surprisingly well in Stages 1 and 2, but defo wasn't cut out for Stage 3. When a competitor barely clears the Arm Rings you know they're in trouble.

- Naoki Iketani in SASUKE 16: I wasn't sure about this one given that Iketani had definitely justified his position in Stage 3 several times before, but he basically nearly failed the Arm Rings then failed the Body Prop legit about 2 seconds after he started; this was made worse by the fact that every other competitor made it to at least the Cliffhanger at that tournament.

[Ninja Relaxer]

This is a tough one. I almost always forget about the people who don't deserve to be in Stage 3, because they're... well, forgettable.

I will say, though, that it often happens that there's a competitor who clears Stages 1 and 2 and I know they have no chance of beating Stage 3 just based on their body type alone. That would be competitors who are tall and have a lot of muscle mass. Ragivaru, for example. As fun as he is to watch in Stages 1 and 2, you _know_ from his appearance alone that he's not going to beat Stage 3. There's just no way for the fingers to support that kind of weight, since finger muscles don't scale with the other muscles of the body.

Sometimes I feel sorry for these people, because it's not their fault that they fail. The course just isn't designed for them.

* That said, I have _no_ idea how Travis Allen Schroeder was able to beat the Cliffhanger in Sasuke 4. That is one of my all-time most memorable Sasuke runs, simply because it seemed to defy the laws of physics.

[tns8597]

You say that, but people like Drew and all the other Americans are pretty darn heavy and they've done very well on both Sasuke and ANW; David Campbell could've beaten Stage 3 in SASUKE 27 had he hung on for another 2 seconds, while Drew may well have reached the Final Stage in 36 or 37 had it not been for his DQ and absence respectively, and they're of a similar build. If you train extensively, you sort of work with what you've got. You have to if you're a taller competitor as well.

I do think an extreme example of where you're right though was Paul Terek because he was so massive at 6'3 and didn't actually train for Sasuke, that his weight was always going to work against him.

And yeah about Schroeder, I think what amazes me the most is how had he not DQ'd himself on the Pipe Slider, he would've very likely achieved Kanzen due to his rope climbing skills; imagine the list of champions being the 4 Japanese guys who are all under 5'4 and 60kg, and then this 100kg giant next to them lol.

[Ninja Relaxer]

I was really disappointed when the judges disqualified Schroeder, because we were witnessing something truly incredible there when he managed to salvage his Pipe Slider disaster. I would have loved to see if he could actually come back from that and make it all the way to the final platform. Sure, maybe he shouldn't be allowed to go on to Stage 4, but making him stop in the middle of Stage 3 is one of the worst judging decisions in Sasuke history, IMO. Now we'll never know.

As for height... Apparently it's really hard to judge someone's height from video alone. Or maybe I'm just remarkably bad at it. As it turns out, Drew is taller than I thought he was, and Ragivaru is shorter. In fact, Ragivaru is shorter than Drew. I never would've guessed. I always thought Ragivaru looked 6'1 at least, maybe even as tall as 6'3, but he's actually 5'8. You learn something new every day.

[ChiBiJKT48]

Nov 16, 2020 19:26:37 GMT -5 Ninja Relaxer said:

I was really disappointed when the judges disqualified Schroeder, because we were witnessing something truly incredible there when he managed to salvage his Pipe Slider disaster. I would have loved to see if he could actually come back from that and make it all the way to the final platform. Sure, maybe he shouldn't be allowed to go on to Stage 4, but making him stop in the middle of Stage 3 is one of the worst judging decisions in Sasuke history, IMO. Now we'll never know.

That is where you got it wrong, because he clearly finished the jump *he didn't get wet and the second pipe was at the end of the track*, so he did do awesome comeback on that.

[Ninja Relaxer]

Nov 16, 2020 19:55:12 GMT -5 ChiBiJKT48 said:

Nov 16, 2020 19:26:37 GMT -5 Ninja Relaxer said:

I was really disappointed when the judges disqualified Schroeder, because we were witnessing something truly incredible there when he managed to salvage his Pipe Slider disaster. I would have loved to see if he could actually come back from that and make it all the way to the final platform. Sure, maybe he shouldn't be allowed to go on to Stage 4, but making him stop in the middle of Stage 3 is one of the worst judging decisions in Sasuke history, IMO. Now we'll never know.

That is where you got it wrong, because he clearly finished the jump *he didn't get wet and the second pipe was at the end of the track*, so he did do awesome comeback on that.

If that's true, then I want to see it! G4 cut the run a few seconds after the Pipe Slider mishap.

[ChiBiJKT48]

Nov 16, 2020 23:43:58 GMT -5 Ninja Relaxer said:

If that's true, then I want to see it! G4 cut the run a few seconds after the Pipe Slider mishap.

That is the problem, because no footage of that *yes, even the TBS/JET footage*.

I can type it 100% sure because of the position the pipe and the state he was in *not wet*. The people who were there was the lucky people who got to see his successful jump.

[GlobalNinjaFan]

Aside from the people early on who failed the Propeller Bars and Super Vault... Darvish was pretty unconvincing in his Stage 3 appearance.

[tns8597]

As I said before I'm willing to turn a blind eye to Stage 3 performances that were poor but due to a simple mistake. While the Pole Vault failure was definitely among the worst Stage 3 performances, I don't think that implies that the guy didn't deserve to be there given that for all we know he could've beaten the stage if he wasn't unlucky. He also crushed Stage 2 from what I remember. Same thing with Ben Toyer; he's clearly capable otherwise he wouldn't have been the Australian rep for SASUKE 36, as well as beating Stage 1 and 2 on his first attempt. He just made a simple mistake on the Flying Bar but could've likely reached the Cliffhanger otherwise.

For me, people who 'aren't cut out for Stage 3' are those who didn't make any freak mistakes per se, but instead, show that they're clearly struggling on early/easy obstacles which imply that they're a bit out of their depth compared to the rest of the field and/or those who benefitted from circumstance. Like competitors who deserved to go out in Stages 1 or 2 but didn't because that iteration was one of the easier ones and/or just got incredibly lucky. The example I always use is Suzuki in 32 because he would've timed out on Stage 2 if they'd not completely nerfed the time limit, which allowed him to creep into Stage 3 which we could see from a mile away that he just wasn't ready for.

Agreed about Darvish though: I think what made his run worse is that it literally lasted 15 seconds but the producers obviously extrapolated it to about 10-15 minutes with fluff pieces, like 5 replays, and the reaction of every competitor on the sidelines. I get he's a celebrity but c'mon.

[Ninja Relaxer]

I have a half-serious, half-jocular theory about fluff pieces... I call it the Curse of the Long Intro. The way it works is, the longer a competitor's fluff piece is, the more likely they are to fail.

Sounds silly, but it turns out to be right more often than you'd expect.

[BigT]

It makes sense if you think about it. If their run is very anticipated but short, then the only way to extend it is with an artificially long intro.

[tns8597]

ninjarelaxer that's not true in the case of anyone other than celebrities or REALLY high-profile competitors such as All-Stars, who get elongated fluff pieces regardless of how they do. It's in fact the opposite.

If a competitor is going to do extremely well (e.g. go the furthest out of any competitor), they often get far more screen time to big the competitor up prior to their breakout/standout performance, whereas if their run is going to end very abruptly, they often just get cut or digested. There are countless examples of this: Shinji Kobayashi getting all his runs shown in full in fluff pieces whenever he made Stage 3, yet getting cut or digested whenever he failed Stage 1. Competitors like Urushihara, Hashimoto, and Matachi always getting their runs cut, digested, or not being given much attention, until the tournament that they break out. By comparison, if a competitor is going to make the Final Stage, they'll mostly get their runs shown in full as well as fluff pieces before each run.

Your theory is probably true for celebrities like Darvish though, because I feel like they need to give him a significant portion of screen time to keep ratings and viewings high, meaning that they had to work wonders with replays and fluff pieces to lengthen out his otherwise abruptly ended run.