Kawaguchi Tomohiro

[BigT]

I know a few people have complained that Kawaguchi Tomohiro is overrated because of getting the number 99 all the time. I can't see him getting it in Sasuke 38. But my question is - who do you think would've been a better fit for number 99 in Sasuke 37?

In his defense, the only case where Kawaguchi has really messed up was in 33. I guess you can sort of count 31 and 36 but he still at least made it to the cliffhanger. Also he did really well in 34 and 35, as well as didn't crumble under pressure in 32 when people like Kanno, Asa and Kong failed stage 1.

Tada isn't really an option as he was almost completely unknown before and 99 is only given after a truly exceptional performance (Nagano in 9, Levi in 20, Urushihara in 22). Ryo and Urushihara performed great in 36 but they had been failing stage 1 from 31 with Urushihara being only one to clear in Sasuke 34.

Hioki is always given a low number, Drew didn't participate.

Sato Jun? While he is consistent in reaching cliffhanger every time since 32 (with exception of 33) we have to admit he is just not a real threat to total victory at the time. He is the Takeda that always makes it to 3rd stage but just can't take that last step. I am not sure if he should get 99 as it is theoretically the second likeliest competitor to win.

Is it really Darvish Kenji that should wear 99? Or should Morimoto accept 99 and allow Darvish to wear 100?

So, what are your thoughts?

[tns8597]

So first of all I need to address the fact that Darvish should NEVER get 99 unless he actually put on a strong performance worthy of the number, which I very much doubt. There's unfortunately a very high chance he could get it in SASUKE 38, given that Tada apparently doesn't like high numbers, and Rene might not compete. He deserves low 90s at best based on his SASUKE 36 performance.

Anyway, back to the question in hand.

I think the reason Kawaguchi kept getting 99 was because until SASUKE 37, only three people had reached the Final across 9 tournaments, which is unprecedented if you think about it; Morimoto, Tomo, and Ryo. Morimoto is obviously accounted for because he wears 100, and Ryo's been performing poorly, hence Tomo gets 99 because he's the only other former finalist from this era, thus leading people to believe he's the second best shot at victory.

I hate to say this, but I think from SASUKE 33-36, Drew would've been more deserving of the number 99. Sure, he never reached the Final Stage, but he went the furthest out of any competitor twice in a row, which Tomo never has. Tomo also put on a very poor Final Stage attempt so I'd say that that's not necessarily a good indicator of him having a good chance to go all the way. Drew was also more consistent, made Stages 1 and 2 look easy in every tournament with unthinkably fast times, while Kawaguchi's times were often neither here nor there. Also, to think that Kawaguchi would've got 99 again in SASUKE 34 had Yuuji not threatened retirement (hence why he was given 99 that tournament), despite failing the First Stage in 33, while Drew once again went further than anyone else, I just don't get personally.

In SASUKE 37, I think Yuuji deserved 99. He's a two-time champion and showed in 36 that he was still a threat to Total Victory, and also made it further than Kawaguchi in that tournament.

I will say that Kawaguchi deserved 99 in SASUKE 31, not Yuuji, given that Ryo got 100 and Yuuji failed the Second Stage for the second time in a row, and 32 potentially as well, but in 32 they once again lined the final numbers up for the All-Stars in anticipation of Nagano's retirement. Mind you, in 32, Kawaguchi got the highest number given to a non-All-Star so that's effectively the same thing. But from 33 onwards, fundamentally there have been competitors who've gone further, faster, and been more consistent throughout.

To add, I don't just think he's a bit overrated (I say a bit as he's still a very very top competitor unlike ABC-Z) because of his numbers, but purely because he gets a lot of screen time while similar competitors such as Jun and Drew constantly got digested.

[PizzaKing57]

I'll be really p**sed off if Kawaguchi gets #99 again in 38 because it's getting repetitive now and I'm not saying this because I don't like the person, but in some tournaments, he is surpassed by others like Sato and Yuuji. Also his last Final Stage attempt was back in 2014 and there he was nowhere near to reaching the top, so I definitely do not think he should deserve #99 in the following tournament. Sure there's a likely chance of him making back to Stage 3 again but until he gets there, he should get a lower number.

I really wish that Tada would accept the opportunity to wear #99, but like you said before it's disappointingly a problem for him as he cannot cope with the pressure of it, even though it would be super cool to look at him with that much of a high number, as he's one of my favourite challengers now.

Rene still could compete and if he does, he may very well receive #99 because take Levi Meeuwenberg in 20, there he was one of only three challengers to clear the 1st Stage and on his very first appearance, he got the furthest out of anybody, which led him to be invited back and wear #99, so if that happened to Levi, then the same could apply for Rene too which isn't uncertain but we'll see.

If not either of the two finalists, then it has to be Yuuji since he performed better than Kawaguchi in the last two tournaments and has really shown us that despite being in his 40s, is still capable of making it far and so I really think that this is the person who should get #99, as he's worn the number about five times before and is known to all of us as the Double Grand Champion. He was ever so close to making it back to the Final last time, and so this deserves him #99 again considering there's a last few more chances of him reaching Stage 4 again.

And about Darvish, oh man I really cannot take this person at all, he's extremely annoying for my liking and him getting too much attention and screen-time on the broadcast really makes me sick, as this guy hasn't even made it deep into Stage 3 yet to be getting such high numbers. And what you said before, if this celeb gets #99 or even the coveted #100, it will look stupid on a person who hasn't even performed well to be deserving that much high of a number, also he failed Stage 1 last time so I'm predicting #95 for 38 and no higher than that.

Lastly, I really think that it is someone else's turn to wear #99 now as it would look better and less boring in my opinion and that should most likely go to Rene (if he's able to make it) or Yuuji the Double Grand Champion.

[Kane-Not-Kosugi]

I won't be pissed if he gets #99 but he doesn't deserve it tbh. I always preferred it when the 2 champs were 99 and 100, like Nagano and Urushihara back in the day. It wasn't a regular thing, but I still prefer it that way.

Give Yuuji 99. He's a 2 time champ, he's now made Stage 3 twice in a row, he's strong. He deserves it. Yusuke can stay at 100 tho ofc.

[Ninja Relaxer]

I have to admit, I don't really understand the obsession with numbers. As long as the top competitors are 80 or above, I don't care what the order is. Maybe it makes a difference to the competitors themselves, but as a viewer, it doesn't matter to me whether Kawaguchi goes before or after Jun Sato.

[tns8597]

I’ve mentioned this in a long answer to someone else who didn’t get the number obsession, so I’m just going to be short and sweet with my response here, especially as your previous comment means that you at least somewhat understand why there is an order in the first place.

In this context, number is a quantifiable measure of a competitor’s past performances And overall chance at total victory. 100 is hence often given to the reigning champion or the most likely person to achieve victory, and 99 is often given to someone who’s either second in line, or had an incredible breakout run (say, Levi in S20). There is usually a conceivable difference in skills between someone who wears, say, low-to-mid 80s and someone to wears 96-100, the former being maybe a Second Stage regular, and the latter being the strongest competitors of the era.

Hence, number is often referred to as to deciding whether competitors are under or overrated, because Darvish getting a higher number than Yuuji in 37 partially undermines Yuuji’s successes, despite the fact that we all know he only gets high numbers because of his celebrity status.

More relevant to this thread, Morimoto gets 100 as he’s the reigning champion and is arguably still the best bet at victory, and Kawaguchi is given 99 because he’s perceived as sort of second in line, or at least was until Sasuke 37. We’re basically debating whether Kawaguchi was indeed the second best bet at victory, and if he’s not, we’re wondering why he keeps being given 99, because if there are stronger competitors than him (e.g. Drew), they’re perhaps more fitting of the number.

I just realised that I said I was going to make this short and sweet. Oh well, I can ramble on, but you get my point.

[Ninja Relaxer]

Oh, I understand how the numbers are distributed. I just don't know why people care so much about whether a competitor gets, say, 99 or 92. At the end of the day, what difference does it make?

[tns8597]

My past comment is exactly why people care and why it is important.

I think most fans want strong competitors to get the credit they deserve for their past performances, and numbers are the main quantifiable way to do so. In the same way that 100 and 99 should be given to the most likely and second most likely competitor to achieve Total Victory, 98 should be given to the third, 97 to the fourth, 96 to the fifth, and so on. It's effectively a ranking system of competitors if one were to exist. I personally don't think Kawaguchi should've been kept at 'number 2' for this long in this regard.

Of course, there are other measures of appreciating strong competitors, such as screen time, but as we know that's been completely thrown out of the window in Inui's era.

[ChiBiJKT48]

Let me do the longer typing....

Numbers are important because it is seen as ranking of your winning chance in SASUKE. See SASUKE All-Stars during Second Era. Did you see any All-Stars *after the status is known in SASUKE 6, and only count when they are already considered All-Stars, so, for example, Nagano is not yet an All-Stars in SASUKE 7-9* ever wore numbers lower than #71? No, because SASUKE All-Stars is a group specifically created by TBS to separate top competitors from average to strong but inconsistent competitors. You stated, "What is the difference between competitor wearing #92 and competitor wearing #99?". Like I type, numbering is sort of ranking. Take Nagano as example. So, you reckon he is best at #92, meaning he is the ninth best competitor in the tournament? Don't think so, and it clearly didn't fit him too.

For context, Nagano's lowest number was #96, Takeda #91, Yamada #98, Shiratori #81, Akiyama #71 *and that only because he has bad eyesight, so the producers decide to lower his number to prevent him run at night. Counting pre-SASUKE 13 numbering, his lowest was #81*, and Yamamoto #76 due to Trials results in SASUKE 13 *if we don't count that, his lowest was #95*. So you see, the higher the number, the better the producers think of their winning chance.

Now, #100 is given to who we thought was the strongest competitor. So, no matter how many times or how loud Nagano complain about his number, he always get that number if there is no bigger event happening before/better competitor than him in that tournament *Yamada threaten to retire in SASUKE 17, Kume Ryouta finish second in SASUKE 18's Race and taking #100, and Urushihara was Grand Champion in SASUKE 25 and 26*.

#99 and #98 are given to people who do well in previous tournament and those who establish himself as strong competitor. Even in SASUKE 12, 13, 21-24, #99 always given to strongest non-SASUKE All-Stars competitor *remember, Shiratori is not yet an All-Stars in SASUKE 13*, with only Yamada *as he was that famous Mr. SASUKE* and Nagano *because Yamada wore #100 in both occasion* who wore this number more than once. #98 in Second Era always being worn by either Takeda or Yamamoto because (for Takeda's case) of his consistency of going into Third Stage ; (for Yamamoto's case) he is the only person who compete in every single SASUKE tournaments *only twice it didn't happen, and on one occasion, it is worn by All-Stars, too (Yamada)*.

The numbering started to become a mess in Third Era. It started by Marathon Race in SASUKE 18. This is still acceptable. In next tournament, however, Sato Hiromichi, who didn't even clear First Stage, get #99. From then, numbering is consistenly bashed *especially SASUKE 22 and 26 (the swap in Second Stage must been brought again, duh)*.

So, now, back to Kawaguchi's case. He rightly deserve #99 in last four/five tournaments, because he is the second best Japanese competitor after Morimoto. Matachi's performance is sort of declining after SASUKE 30, so, can't put him as third best, hence why he always get lower than #98. But, judging his last performance, you reckon Kawaguchi deserve #99? Definitely no.

In past tournaments, especially after Morimoto's Kanzenseiha, DD always be either best or second best competitor behind Morimoto, but for some reason, he never get #98 more than once. And, then, out of nowhere, in one tournament, Darvish, who never made it to Third Stage before, wore #98! Of course we're mad! So, now, with DD out of the way, and Tada clearly show he is the best Japanese competitor after Morimoto in last tournament, if it was Kawaguchi and not him who get #99, you think that is acceptable? Answer it for yourself.

[tns8597]

If we're going to go into the specifics I'll give my opinion on the numbers Kawaguchi should've got from SASUKE 31-37. Obviously some of you won't agree with me but let's be nice here please.

31: #99
31: #97 (given that Nagano was retiring and hence the All-Stars took the last three numbers)
33: #98 (DD should've been given 99 for his run in 32, as it was after this point that we started to realise that he wasn't just a Third Stage regular, he was a real threat for Total Victory)
34: #95-97 (due to his First Stage failure in 33)
35: #98 (with DD being given 99)
36: #98-99 (he went further than DD did but DD was far stronger in Stages 1 and 2)
37: #95-97 (given his underwhelming performance in 36; Yuuji should've been given 99. Honestly, I'll go with 97 as he deserves it way more than Darvish)
Prediction for 38: #95-97 again

[PizzaKing57]

Very interesting number predictions you got there!

Anyways about #99, it certainly wouldn't be acceptable to give it once again to Kawaguchi, as he's already been declining in the last two tournaments and that there are more challengers that usually surpass him like Sato, Yuuji etc. Kawaguchi usually is consistent into making Stage 3, but I have no hope in him beating the Vertical Limit Kai as he is only shown practising on a single ledge at his home.

I really hope that Rene will be able to compete this time, so he could possibly wear #99, like Levi did in 21 after making it the furthest. And if he is unable to fly to Japan, then Yuuji is probably the only hope of wearing this second coveted number, as he's turned the tables around after 36 making it deep into the Vertical Limit both times and should for once get #99 again, to still be remembered as the only human to ever achieve Total Victory twice!

However, the only other person I will be really annoyed at getting #99 is Darvish because SASUKE should focus more on challengers performances instead of celebrity's fame outside of the show which isn't that important. As much as I wish he wasn't always given high numbers in the 90s, I just know that it's going to happen in the next tournament but if it's any number above 97, then I'll be really mad.

[tns8597]

I'll be really mad if they give Darvish a high number as well; hopefully his Stage 1 fail will give a reason for them to drop him down a few notches, like how Wakky got 97 in his first tournament then eventually got dropped down to the 80s after failing Stages 1 and 2.

While we're on the subject of number, these are not necessarily my actual predictions, but my opinions on how the numbers SHOULD be are as follows:
100 - Morimoto
99 - Yuuji
98 - Rene
97 - Jun
96 - Hioki
95 - Tada (to take a bit of pressure off for him; we don't want him failing early purely as a result of getting a high number)
94 - Kawaguchi
93 - Graff
92 - Yamamoto Yoshiyuki (for his amazing breakout run)
91 - Isa Yoshinori
90 - Suzuki Yusuke
89 - Saikawa
88 - Araki
87 - Darvish
86 - Keitaro
85 - Nagasaki
84 - Kanno
83 - Takeda
82 - Shingo
81 - Ugajin
80 - Mori
Inmate Number 79 - Drew

[s0y30nwin]

I'm fine if Kawaguchi wear #99 again for SASUKE 38 tbh, but seriously if they dare to give Darvish #99 (or at least high 90s again) i will be extremely pissed off.