Most Predictable Ending

[darthvaderlim]

Which tournament do you think has the most predictable ending? For me, it would be Sasuke 38 as it's obvious that Yusuke would not only Kanzen, but was the only Final Stage attempt due to the Cliffhanger Dimension.

33 is also another one, due to the UCCH and Vertical Limit combo being straight up impossible plus the removal of the green bar before the Pipe Slider. To be fair, I didn't know about it at that time until after I had the watched the tournament and the Flying Bar fails overshadowed it

[dakohosu]

Aug 8, 2024 3:40:18 GMT -5 darthvaderlim said:

Which tournament do you think has the most predictable ending? For me, it would be Sasuke 38 as it's obvious that Yusuke would not only Kanzen, but was the only Final Stage attempt due to the Cliffhanger Dimension.

33 is also another one, due to the UCCH and Vertical Limit combo being straight up impossible plus the removal of the green bar before the Pipe Slider. To be fair, I didn't know about it at that time until after I had the watched the tournament and the Flying Bar fails overshadowed it

I'd probably go with 28. The Navi spoiled a good chunk of the results, rebranding the Shin Sedai who just happened to be the last four men standing/top four performers. Especially including Asa in the group who had no prior notable track record, thus giving away that he'd done well in that tournament. Vice versa with Hashimoto, he was a former finalist and came in 3rd place in the previous tournament, but wasn't included, which made his shock Stage 1 fail unsurprising. Not to mention that the Crazy Cliffhanger was pretty heavily marketed in the Navi as the focal point of Stage 3, and was a completely new concept, so it was pretty obvious that the tournament would end there. Especially as after the Shin-Cliffhanger and Ultimate Cliffhanger era, a new Cliffhanger ending a tournament became all the more expected, unlike the older tournaments where we had clears on the Dansa and Kai in their first attempts respectively.

Agreed on 38 though, it was completely obvious from the editing and marketing that Yusuke would Kanzen, especially the whole "#100 has never won" theme. I would actually say that tournament had the most predictable Stages 3 and 4 of any tournament I've watched. Tada's edit gave away from early on that he wasn't making the Final (obvs 40 changed that as he did make the Final despite the same treatment but back then it wasn't normal), and predictably it was just a bunch of Cliffhanger fails and then Yusuke once again being the only Finalist, and then winning. The only unpredictable elements were Yoshi and Isa's fails, but that's more of a point against because at least in Yoshi's case, he was robbed by a terrible oversight. 38 in general was just full of controversy which is why it's a bottom 10-15 tournament for me. It's also funny how the one tournament that didn't straight up tease a Kanzen was the most predictable one of them all.....

I'd also probably add 34 to the equation for the same reasons as 33. By this point it was fairly obvious that the UCCH+VLK combo couldn't be beaten, so Stage 3 culminating in a bunch of Cliffhanger fails, then Yusuke gassing out on the VLK was completely expected.

Least predictable I'd probably go with 19, 22, 37, and 40. 19 because I don't think anyone expected the course to fight back as hard as it did especially after 18's already bad results, 22 because of the shock All-Star fails and numerous breakouts from previous unknowns, 37 for Yusuke's early fail with Tada and Rene's breakouts and the Black Tigers finally getting taken seriously after several years, and 40 due to Kane and Shingo's clears, a fair few redemptions, Ryo's fail, Keitaro's breakout, etc. Even Yusuke coming as close as he did to Kanzen wasn't expected because he ran in the rain and the new Final is absolutely brutal.

[subtleagent]

I guess I'll also go with 38, again because it was pretty much spoiled by the format.

[YourResidentKojiFan]

31 as soon as Tomo failed since there was a Kanzen teased. I'd also have to say 25 too given how the UCH ledges were 2cm and the whole stage before it was brutal. I know those weren't predictable from the get-go, but there was still that moment where it's like "Yep, I know how this is going."

[ChiBiJKT48]

SASUKE 17 since there's literally a scene of "KANZEN!!!". Not surprise me one bit when Nagano finally did it, though what surprise me is Nagasaki making it to Final.

[dakohosu]

Aug 8, 2024 12:15:54 GMT -5 YourResidentKojiFan said:

31 as soon as Tomo failed since there was a Kanzen teased.

I think in retrospect if you look at a lot of the Kanzen tournaments, specifically their editing, the result was sort of given away pretty early on.

In 4 it was really down to Akiyama or Yamada, because they were the only competitors who were given considerable screen time especially in a tournament with so many digests and all-cut clears. Especially the fact that Akiyama had failed Stage 2 twice before, and was dropped down in the running order due to not being considered a threat to win anymore, yet suddenly gets a hoard of fluff pieces and focus. Yamada was also pretty hyped due to his near-win in the prior tournament. But then it came down to the same issue as 31 where we had a Kanzen teased and only one finalist.

17 I think everyone knew it was going to be Nagano anyway. The only other potentials were Bunpei but he failed pretty early in the running order, then Takeda but he was digested on Stage 2. We did have two Finalists but I'd have a hard time believing that many people thought Nagano would fail for the fourth straight time while Nagasaki would beat the Final on his first try.

31 I'd say was a bit of a giveaway even earlier than Tomo's fail. I'd go as far to say after Yuuji and Ryo failed Stage 1. Yusuke was given a lot more screentime than the other competitors, had all of his runs shown with fluff pieces, and was arguably the only capable competitor left standing by the time we got to Stage 2. Asa was either failing Cliffhanger or VL, while Kanno and Tomo's prior Final runs weren't particularly confidence inspiring, at least not enough to consider them a real threat to win.

38 was obvious from miles away, even though they didn't straight up tease a Kanzen, mainly because at that point Yusuke was being hyped up to win and there was really no one else competing that could've done it.

The only one that wasn't obvious to me was 24. Nagano was primed as the favorite to win after 23, then he has a shock fail on Stage 1, and then it literally became all to play for. We had an absolutely stacked Stage 3/4 field, and with 5 finalists it could've realistically been any of them. Yuuji was still the most likely of the bunch because he had reached the Final only two tournaments prior, but we did also have Hashimoto almost Kanzen, and Kong would've done had it not been for you know what. Lee and Okuyama I would've favored less but they hadn't competed enough to confirm that.

Eh, I guess this is all easy to say in retrospect, but yeah, they don't do the best job of driving suspense in terms of "who could it be".

[subtleagent]

38 might as well have had a neon sign that says "Morimoto wins again!"

[azn]

SK26, especially once Yuuji failed. The tournament was destined to be a UCL bloodbath and it was basically confirmed once Yuuji fell. Yes Hashimoto did clear stage one but even if he did clear stage two, I personally believe that Hashimoto was not clearing the UCL this tournament. Ofc we know now that he didn't get a chance.

[dakohosu]

Aug 25, 2024 9:37:40 GMT -5 azn said:

SK26, especially once Yuuji failed. The tournament was destined to be a UCL bloodbath and it was basically confirmed once Yuuji fell. Yes Hashimoto did clear stage one but even if he did clear stage two, I personally believe that Hashimoto was not clearing the UCL this tournament. Ofc we know now that he didn't get a chance.

I also think the fact that some of the results were spoiled early on kind of gave this away, with G4 airing the American runs before Sasuke 26 aired as a whole. I remember David Campbell at the time being pretty hyped up to do well and he'd literally built an UCH in his backyard which almost no one else had done at that point, and he still failed it, which at least to me made it kind of obvious the tournament was ending there. If it wasn't already, because for most of the time leading up to the tournament I assumed that Stage 3 was going to be the same as 25, where no one even made it past the second ledge. 

26 was my first ever live tournament so you can imagine my disappointment that after knowing we had 4 Americans on Stage 3 and hence expecting a lot of other guys to get that far, we only had Lee and Okuyama, with both failing the UCH. 

[Anonymous]

Aug 25, 2024 11:11:52 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Aug 25, 2024 9:37:40 GMT -5 azn said:

SK26, especially once Yuuji failed. The tournament was destined to be a UCL bloodbath and it was basically confirmed once Yuuji fell. Yes Hashimoto did clear stage one but even if he did clear stage two, I personally believe that Hashimoto was not clearing the UCL this tournament. Ofc we know now that he didn't get a chance.

I also think the fact that some of the results were spoiled early on kind of gave this away, with G4 airing the American runs before Sasuke 26 aired as a whole. I remember David Campbell at the time being pretty hyped up to do well and he'd literally built an UCH in his backyard which almost no one else had done at that point, and he still failed it, which at least to me made it kind of obvious the tournament was ending there. If it wasn't already, because for most of the time leading up to the tournament I assumed that Stage 3 was going to be the same as 25, where no one even made it past the second ledge. 

26 was my first ever live tournament so you can imagine my disappointment that after knowing we had 4 Americans on Stage 3 and hence expecting a lot of other guys to get that far, we only had Lee and Okuyama, with both failing the UCH. 

G4's editing of 26 (and 27) was so bad, they made it look like only two guys made it to stage 3. And you could tell then when their stage 3 runs came, they weren't going to go too far.