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Post by subtleagent on Mar 2, 2022 3:42:57 GMT -5
So for this I'm obviously leaving Akiyama and Nagano out as they DID kanzen already (though 12 and 23 would probably be the respective obvious answers for them both anyway). So when do you think each All-Star was no longer a candidate for Kanzenseiha?
For me it's like this:
Shingo, 11 or 12 - Some would say 7 as 11 was when his infamous decline started. But really the only thing stopping him from 9 ~ 12 was the Cliffhanger Kai. Supposedly his new management position gave him less time to train hence his decline in Stage 3, but considering he only regressed in 12 due to using a more grip sapping technique on the Lamp Grasper (and nearly failing like Bunpei did) compared to 11, I think he MIGHT have at least gotten another shot at the final. But alas, he did not. Though he really fell behind during Shin-SASUKE.
Yamada, 4 - Sorry, I like many others just don't see Yamada having any real shot at Nagano's final given speed was always a weakness for Yamada and him being bigger and slower than Nagano who took 4 tries to beat it wouldn't see the top. His Cliffhanger fail in 4 was attributed to struggling on the Propeller Untei (likely due to a mental block). Of course there's the Pipe Slider which almost makes me slide this into maybe, but considering he was going to town training on the rope to the point where he (moronically) climbed one suspended on a crane with no harness. I think he'd have beaten the final definitely.
Takeda, 24 - Many think this too and I agree. Some may argue 12 as he injured himself (even more as he was already hurt before 12) to the point where it hurt his performance. But he definitely had a good shot at 24. It's just he was under the unfortunate pressure of carrying the All-Stars to the Final Stage and he had so much pressure on him that he just wasn't going to see the final. Afterwards though he just became Stage 2 fodder, which is sad to see considering how consistent he was prior and how he was the final All-Star ever to clear Stage 1. (both legitimately in 34 AND disregarding that dumb DQ in 38).
Bunpei, 16 maybe 17 - I think Bunpei is the hardest one for me to peg. His injuries really did catch up to him albeit slowly. 16 was definitely a potential last chance since had he made the Pipe Slider jump he might've come closer on the Final. 17 some debate was just bad luck on his part though his form on the Body Prop did seem poorer versus prior tournaments. Perhaps it might've been the obstacle being slick, but who knows. Though once Shin-SASUKE hit, he really took a hit stamina wise to the point where he could barely run at all. Though he did beat 21's Stage 1 which I thought wasn't too bad considering he's chronically injured.
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Post by dakohosu on Mar 2, 2022 5:28:47 GMT -5
Depends how you define 'last chance'. I'd say last chance is where they could've achieved Kanzen but didn't due to circumstances such as a rookie error or whatever that directly stopped them from the above, if they failed due to exhaustion then I'd say that means that they're clearly past the point where they're capable of getting through Stage 3 or 4 and hence don't have what it takes to win. Hence instances like Pipe Slider jump fails etc. count but falling off the Cliffhanger due to lack of strength doesn't; just my personal opinion though.
Hence I'd say Takeda's last chance was actually 23 because he could've cleared Stage 3 had it not been for him sticking his foot out on the Spider Flip transition. 24 he gassed out so that to me is conclusive that he just didn't have the stamina to see the course through. I know 23 and 24 were like 2 months apart but yeah, clearly the harder Stage 2 had an effect on his stamina or maybe he was just having a bad day.
Maybe this is controversial but I actually feel like Shingo had no shot at Kanzen whatsoever. He's the only All-Star where I don't think he could've cleared any iteration of the Final Stage. He only made it about 2/3 up the rope in Sasuke 3 and I don't think he would've cleared it in 4 either given that his strength would've been affected by the hardened Stage 3 (very few people factor in exhaustion from prior stages). Then he obviously had his infamous fail in Sasuke 7, but I don't think he would've cleared given that his speed and upper body strength is nothing compared to Nagano who needed 4 tries. Then he obviously started his Stage 3 decline which in pretty much every case was due to lack of strength rather than a costly mistake, then following this started his string of Stage 1 and 2 failures.
Yamada and Bunpei I think you're right. Bunpei came really close on Stage 4 in Sasuke 12 and given how insane his technique and training regime was I have no doubt that had he made it back there in 16, he could've easily reached the top of the tower. I'm also inclined to call his Body Prop fail in 17 a fluke given that he seemed to have just slipped suddenly, so if I was watching 17 live knowing someone was going to win I would've obviously assumed it would be Nagano but Bunpei would've been a close second given that he surpassed Nagano's performance in both 15 and 16. Yamada was fundamentally too heavyweight to have stood a chance on the Gen-2 Final Stage, and certainly wouldn't have been faster than Nagano on the Spider Climb at the very least.
With Akiyama and Nagano again I agree. Again this comes down to my definition of 'last chance'; Akiyama failed in 12 due to a bad jump, but he clearly had what it took to get that far and given how insane his rope climbing skills were, combined with the fact that he was really small and light, meant that I think he could've possibly been faster than Nagano on the Final Stage and potentially won again. Afterwards he started what I would call an unrecoverable decline so I'd say that was probably his last chance. Nagano I'd actually go with 24 because he fell victim to a rookie error, and given how close he came in 23 and the fact that the course was effectively identical, he probably would've won had it not been for a simple oversight on the Jumping Spider. After 24 the course became insanely hard and Nagano started to both lose interest and suffer the effects of age.
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Post by subtleagent on Mar 2, 2022 20:04:42 GMT -5
In 24, it was more of both for Takeda. Stamina was drained and he was under the pressure of carrying the All-Stars and expected to at least reach the Gliding Ring since everyone else did. In his case it was more mental than physical.
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zoran
Jessie Graff
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Post by zoran on Mar 11, 2022 4:21:28 GMT -5
Akiyama - I'd say 13, provided he can easily get the hang off the Spider Climb and rope transition. Provided his rope skills are still as powerful as 4, he should be able to kanzen. After 13, with the introduction of the jumping bars and increased jump on the pipe slider, he has basically no chance unless there is any training footage of him beating the jumping bars. Him attempting them would probably be a massive safety hazard in general with his eye sight.
Nagano - 27, probably an out there take but I think with solid training he could beat the Ultimate cliffhanger, he did better than the 25 and 26 competitors and beat the transition to the fifth ledge on a replica David Campbell built (source for this is old comments on the forum, the footage is probably lost). The rest of Sasuke 27's third stage is fairly manageable apart from the chain swing which is based more than luck/skill rather than age/endurance. The final is a 40 second rope climb, Nagano hasn't really struggled on rope climbs, it was mainly the spider climb that caught him out from 11-13. With solid training and mental willpower a Kanzen in 27 is on the table in my opinion.
Shingo - Probably 4 due to his shoulder issues starting from tournament 5 (some speculate the bump Shingo had while clearing stage 1 in Sasuke 5 is the cause of all his shoulder issues but I doubt this), however if we'll say his shoulder injury never occurred I'd guess up to 13 based on his brief performance on the Spider climb in 7 and solid rope climbing skills.
Takeda - 24, assuming his rope climbing skills are up to fan expectations.
Shiratori - 17
Yamada - Probably 4 or 13.
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Post by dakohosu on Mar 11, 2022 4:40:25 GMT -5
Akiyama - I'd say 13, provided he can easily get the hang off the Spider Climb and rope transition. Provided his rope skills are still as powerful as 4, he should be able to kanzen. After 13, with the introduction of the jumping bars and increased jump on the pipe slider, he has basically no chance unless there is any training footage of him beating the jumping bars. Him attempting them would probably be a massive safety hazard in general with his eye sight. Nagano - 27, probably an out there take but I think with solid training he could beat the Ultimate cliffhanger, he did better than the 25 and 26 competitors and beat the transition to the fifth ledge on a replica David Campbell built (source for this is old comments on the forum, the footage is probably lost). The rest of Sasuke 27's third stage is fairly manageable apart from the chain swing which is based more than luck/skill rather than age/endurance. The final is a 40 second rope climb, Nagano hasn't really struggled on rope climbs, it was mainly the spider climb that caught him out from 11-13. With solid training and mental willpower a Kanzen in 27 is on the table in my opinion. Shingo - Probably 4 due to his shoulder issues starting from tournament 5 (some speculate the bump Shingo had while clearing stage 1 in Sasuke 5 is the cause of all his shoulder issues but I doubt this), however if we'll say his shoulder injury never occurred I'd guess up to 13 based on his brief performance on the Spider climb in 7 and solid rope climbing skills. Takeda - 24, assuming his rope climbing skills are up to fan expectations. Shiratori - 17 Yamada - Probably 4 or 13. There actually is footage of Akiyama training on the Jumping Bars during one of Bunpei's pre-Stage 3 fluff pieces (I THINK it was 16 but I'm not sure) where he was in the background at Bunpei's shrine, and he seemed to not have much trouble on them whatsoever. I also remember the replica he was training on had the bars at a level height with one another which would've been even harder than the real thing. I think he could've made it past them had he made it back to Stage 3, especially the nerfed version in 16 where he almost reached Stage 3 that tournament. I still think he'd fail though just because of the Pipe Slider's jump being demonically hard from 14-17, and given that he failed the easier jump in 12 and only cleared it in 4 because there was a bit of hidden apparatus that he fell on to. |
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zoran
Jessie Graff
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Post by zoran on Mar 11, 2022 4:56:25 GMT -5
Issue though would be the difference between performing during the day compared to night.Look at how he failed the crooked wall in 13.
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Post by dakohosu on Mar 11, 2022 6:39:53 GMT -5
Issue though would be the difference between performing during the day compared to night.Look at how he failed the crooked wall in 13. I’ve never understood that. The stage is fully lit during the night time, otherwise no one would be able to see lol. |
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zoran
Jessie Graff
Posts: 1,042
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Post by zoran on Mar 11, 2022 7:50:22 GMT -5
Issue though would be the difference between performing during the day compared to night.Look at how he failed the crooked wall in 13. I’ve never understood that. The stage is fully lit during the night time, otherwise no one would be able to see lol. Shadows and light obstructions + the general darkness with Akiyama's sight issues. |
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Post by subtleagent on Mar 11, 2022 12:23:31 GMT -5
Issue though would be the difference between performing during the day compared to night.Look at how he failed the crooked wall in 13. I’ve never understood that. The stage is fully lit during the night time, otherwise no one would be able to see lol. IIRC in 25 when he ran at night (due to the champions getting the last 3 numbers), the lights actually made the Jump Hang look like a big yellow wall from his vision so he was just guessing where the places to grab were at that point. Crooked Wall and Bridge Jump's ropes were an issue too. They're darker than the Jump Hang net and therefore blend into the darkness for someone like him. Bridge Jump he did clear, but you could see he was really struggling to figure out where the rope was. So the stage being lit doesn't necessarily mean Akiyama would be able to see and in some cases it actually proves counter productive to him. |
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Post by m4tt3r0x on Mar 14, 2022 14:41:52 GMT -5
It just blows my mind that Yuuji is almost 44, and yet the guy is still not off the table for a Stage 4 appearance. I really wanna see him make if there again dang it.
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Post by dakohosu on Mar 15, 2022 4:56:01 GMT -5
It just blows my mind that Yuuji is almost 44, and yet the guy is still not off the table for a Stage 4 appearance. I really wanna see him make if there again dang it. Truly an entity of his own, definitely the most ageless competitor we've ever seen. He's also never been seriously injured which is a REALLY common occurrence at that age, just look at guys like Takeda, and even Okuyama who kicked absolute butt in his 40s had to retire due to injury. Then so many guys like Kanno and Shingo have injured themselves badly in their 20s-30s yet Yuuji is just bulletproof despite training harder than all of these guys. Honestly I can't see him declining (significantly at least) before his late 40s or even when he hits 50, so I think given he's practiced the Swing Edge and can do the Cliffhanger in his sleep that he's got a genuine chance if he makes it back to Stage 3. It's just the Vertical Limit I'm worried about, Yusuke's still the only competitor to beat the obstacle in it's hardest form with the two gaps (not counting the one in 37 as that was nerfed) and Tada failed the 'real' version in 39 despite also being insanely strong at Stage 3. My money's also on Ryo to make it back there as well, the guy seems to have turned a corner in terms of attitude and confidence. I just really want to see a bit more heterogeneity in who makes it to the Final Stage like in Shin-Sasuke, not just Yusuke, Yusuke, Yusuke lol. |
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Post by ChiBiJKT48 on Mar 16, 2022 13:50:27 GMT -5
Issue though would be the difference between performing during the day compared to night.Look at how he failed the crooked wall in 13. I’ve never understood that. The stage is fully lit during the night time, otherwise no one would be able to see lol. True, but remember Akiyama's eyesight is so damaged he couldn't barely see anything. If anyone's curious, here's that video where it was shown how bad Akiyama's eyesight compared to normal ones: |
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Post by subtleagent on Mar 16, 2022 16:52:29 GMT -5
Yeesh, the ropes are hardly visible in his vision. And it only got worse as his career went along.
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