The longevity of Yusuke being a Kanzen threat

[azn]

This has been a question that I've gotten, realistically, how long do you see Yusuke's prime lasting? This has been a question that I've pondered ever since I saw this post, which on paper seems unrelated, but given how age records have effectively been broken to sh*t and might be broken even further in this tournament, the one age record that to me is something that I find interesting is the Oldest Kanzen record, ofc done by Nagano in SK17 when Nagano was 34.

Given how Yusuke is getting close to 34 (that's frighting to think about) with no signs of NOT being a Kanzen threat, (barring rain) how long do you see Yusuke's prime? Or I guess to clarify even further, how long do you see Yusuke being a guaranteed threat to kanzen whenever he competes?

[dakohosu]

Honestly, given the recent trends we've been seeing, 1) from Yusuke's continued consistency and adaptability to harder courses (well, Stage 3 and 4 specifically, the first two stages haven't changed whatsoever lol) and 2) the recent influx of 40+ competitors doing well, clearly as a result of increased training and healthcare etc. compared to 20 years ago, there's a good chance we could get another 10 years of this. It's quite bittersweet for me because on one hand I'm in awe of how dominantly capable Yusuke is and the fact that there's no signs of him slowing down despite having had a salaryman job for a while and approaching his mid-30s, on the other it is kind of depressing to think that the monotony of Yusuke constantly being the best performer, Last Man Standing, winner etc. doesn't seem to show any signs of ending soon. At least in the case of Nagano's win, he was already relatively old and clearly lost some of his desire to continue competing after he won (he mentioned in a post-20 interview with Levi that he wasn't planning on sticking around much longer as he knew he was no longer in his prime), and he was never as far ahead of the field as Yusuke was anyway, he always had Bunpei or Takeda etc. not far behind.

Either way, the only possibilities I can see that would result in the above not occurring would be (and, no surprises, all of these are very unlikely lol):

- Someone does a Sasuke 22 Yuuji and completely redefines the standards of potential beyond what the prior best performers could achieve. That said, even if someone did surpass him randomly (which in and of itself is very unlikely), he could very easily claw back the distance between himself and the other competitor, given how rigorous and effective his training regime is. Any issues he's had in the past almost immediately end up becoming a non-issue the very next tournament.

- We get a significant course change that Yusuke really struggles with, to the point that he starts to lose confidence affecting further performances, kind of like what Ryo and Yuuji experienced in RISING. Again, unlikely; unlike Ryo and Yuuji, who clearly had a considerable weakness in the form of raw strength, Yusuke has no obvious weaknesses, the only exception being his height, but then something height-based that his training regime wouldn't be able to overcome would just be plain unfair at that point. Yusuke also seems to be a lot more mentally resilient than the aforementioned in the sense that one bad run here and there doesn't seem to affect his future performances. He had a shock fail in 30, then won in 31. Same with 37 followed by 38. If he were to fail early in consecutive tournaments then maybe different story, but again the degree to which he immediately addresses any prior issues would likely circumvent this. Also, unlike what Inui did for Ryo and Yuuji, he doesn't seem to even try and work out Yusuke's weaknesses and capitalise on those, if anything he just plays more to his strengths with more grip based stuff on the later stages, so again very unlikely.

- He gets chronically injured. Would not wish this on anyone, let alone someone as era-defining as Yusuke, which if that were to happen would be plain depressing. That said, he did mention on a post a while ago that his injury rate has increased since he hit 30, but clearly he's looked after himself well enough that it's not been anything serious and hasn't affected his performances in competition.

- He hits a wall in stamina in the next few years. This is probably the most likely of the lot given that we did see formerly unstoppable competitors like Nagano and Kong have fairly shocking decline in stamina, like Nagano's struggles with the wall which he never had issues with during his prime. Kawaguchi as well, who went from seemingly being ageless being a very well-rounded competitor in his late 30s, to almost failing the wall four times in a row and barely clearing Stage 2 when he did eventually get there, which seemed almost sudden, though this was partially mental. On the other hand we had Yuuji and Shingo, who only a few years ago people felt they'd hit said wall, but they're still going strong in their late 40s. It is obviously going to happen as everyone has to deal with the nuances of ageing at some point, but it's often very hard to tell when specifically. If I had to guess though with Yusuke, I'd say probably not for a while given his dedication to the show and the fact he's seemingly only getting stronger despite approaching his mid-30s.

So yeah.... TL/DR: probably a long time, barring a few possibilities, but all very unlikely. Yeah, we're in the Yusuke domination era for the long haul.

[brz0ny]

Probably until he's Yuuji age or slightly earlier

[azn]

Dec 10, 2023 14:08:48 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

- Someone does a Sasuke 22 Yuuji and completely redefines the standards of potential beyond what the prior best performers could achieve. 

If anything, Rene might be just that. Yes his performance in SK37 was heavily altered when considering how the rain altered two major components of the 2nd and 3rd Stages (Rolling Log and CLD respectively) but given his abilities in Ninja competitions that feature more unique and (dare I say) harder obstacles, and specifically with NWG, where he kanzen'd on the show, I wouldn't be surprised if he turns into that competitor this upcoming tournament, though ofc, he could just as easily fail shockingly.

[dakohosu]

Dec 10, 2023 21:06:24 GMT -5 azn said:

Dec 10, 2023 14:08:48 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

- Someone does a Sasuke 22 Yuuji and completely redefines the standards of potential beyond what the prior best performers could achieve. 

If anything, Rene might be just that. Yes his performance in SK37 was heavily altered when considering how the rain altered two major components of the 2nd and 3rd Stages (Rolling Log and CLD respectively) but given his abilities in Ninja competitions that feature more unique and (dare I say) harder obstacles, and specifically with NWG, where he kanzen'd on the show, I wouldn't be surprised if he turns into that competitor this upcoming tournament, though ofc, he could just as easily fail shockingly.

Rene is a possibility, though of the two foreigners competing in 41 I'm personally more confident in Gil given the increased difficulty and adaptability aspect of ANW, the latter of which is really important on a course someone hasn't seen before (Rene obvs did compete on Sasuke but this was now four years ago and as mentioned was on a fairly nerfed course). Fundamentally just depends on how much both have been training for Sasuke specifically; I don't have any doubt they can get deep into Stage 3 as an absolute minimum barring freak Jamie Rahn-esque accidents, but Stage 3 is a different ballgame in terms of specificity and technique. Realistically I see both failing somewhere between the Dimension and the Tsuna Nobori. Yusuke trained his butt off for that Final so I still can't see anyone besting him on it, at least not right now.

I was thinking more along the lines of one of these Japanese YouTube stars (like a Sho Ishikawa type) getting invited and just showing what they're made of. That said, the 'getting invited' aspect is the clear elephant in the room here, and knowing Inui's penchant for immediately culling anyone who fails Stage 1 in their debut combined with the fact that most competitors have rocky starts (especially if they're under pressure to do well like Iwasaki was, given that it had taken him 15 years to get on the show), that's why I still think this occurrence is unfortunately pretty slim in terms of chances.

[hoseasasuke]

He's turning 32 this year, no?

Yuuji who's as light as he is and a bit taller is 45 and he's still a top 10 competitor. Unless he has a massive dropoff, and if he doesn't pick up any bad habits, he'll be in Kanzenseiha contention for years to come

[dakohosu]

Dec 12, 2023 12:34:56 GMT -5 hoseasasuke said:

He's turning 32 this year, no?

Yuuji who's as light as he is and a bit taller is 45 and he's still a top 10 competitor. Unless he has a massive dropoff, and if he doesn't pick up any bad habits, he'll be in Kanzenseiha contention for years to come

Well Yuuji has an abnormal level of agelessness. The guy still looks and goes like he's 30. Even guys like Kane and Shingo, while insanely athletic for their age, have clearly lost some of their speed and stamina from their earlier years, whereas Yuuji's still pretty spritely and is still incredible on Stage 3. 

That said, by the time Yusuke hits 40, 50 may be the new 40, and 45 may be the new 30, if that makes sense. Only 10 years ago the possibility of a 40+ making Stage 3 was very rare (it was basically just Okuyama at that point), and now it's pretty common. Increasingly rigorous training regimes + generally better healthcare are to thank for that. So even if doing as well as Yuuji does at 45 seems abnormal now, it may not be by the time Yusuke reaches that age, so can't count anything out.

That said, something I did forget to mention is if Yusuke settles down and has a kid etc. Age tends to be a proxy for bigger life commitments beyond just the effect of ageing, like how Shunsuke started to decline when he started a family. It wasn't because he was getting older, it was because he was no longer prioritising Sasuke. Same with Nagano after Kaiou was born. Yusuke's commitment to Sasuke, beyond being the face of the show, is mainly due to it being his main pastime apart from work. Obviously that would change if/when he starts a family. In the worst case scenario (and by 'worst' I mean for Sasuke specifically, family obvs always has to come first lol) it would mean less time to train -> worse performances -> less interest as a result of worse performances + focussing more on family, and so forth. This is exactly what happened with Nagano.

On the contrary though, Hioki and Yuuji started families during their Sasuke careers, and it actually helped in the form of motivation, so who knows?

[azn]

Dec 13, 2023 6:13:08 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Dec 12, 2023 12:34:56 GMT -5 hoseasasuke said:

He's turning 32 this year, no?

Yuuji who's as light as he is and a bit taller is 45 and he's still a top 10 competitor. Unless he has a massive dropoff, and if he doesn't pick up any bad habits, he'll be in Kanzenseiha contention for years to come

That said, by the time Yusuke hits 40, 50 may be the new 40, and 45 may be the new 30, if that makes sense. Only 10 years ago the possibility of a 40+ making Stage 3 was very rare (it was basically just Okuyama at that point), and now it's pretty common. Increasingly rigorous training regimes + generally better healthcare are to thank for that. So even if doing as well as Yuuji does at 45 seems abnormal now, it may not be by the time Yusuke reaches that age, so can't count anything out.

That's honestly quite scary when you think about, though the lack of a grandiose course change also has it's effect on the old prospering so much these days, and even still, like how you organized it would basically become a cycle.

The first proper course upscale in a LONG time, leading to a mass amount of fails, leading to new training regimens in which replicas of obstacles of the new course are made, leading to a gradual increase in clears, which then builds to an eventual Kanzen, and that Kanzen possibly being done by Yusuke...maybe? 

[dakohosu]

Dec 13, 2023 11:22:45 GMT -5 azn said:

Dec 13, 2023 6:13:08 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

That's honestly quite scary when you think about, though the lack of a grandiose course change also has it's effect on the old prospering so much these days, and even still, like how you organized it would basically become a cycle.

The first proper course upscale in a LONG time, leading to a mass amount of fails, leading to new training regimens in which replicas of obstacles of the new course are made, leading to a gradual increase in clears, which then builds to an eventual Kanzen, and that Kanzen possibly being done by Yusuke...maybe? 

Well yes, the stagnant course has had an impact for sure. But it's among other things too. The fact that everyone trains on replicas now, and improved healthcare. Just compare how 40-50 year olds look now compared to back in the early days. Like comparing Kiyomi Inoue (most extreme example as from Sasuke 1 lol) and Yuuji. Course changes probably wouldn't have an adverse effect on older competitors unless they were a step up in terms of endurance and stamina, which is the first to take a hit as you age. Nagano apparently said around the time he retired (Sasuke 32) that his upper body was still as strong as it had ever been, but his stamina is what was waning, and you could see this by the fact that he was still as strong as ever on the later stages, but making it past Stage 1 and specifically the wall was becoming ever the more difficult for him.

Also re the second paragraph, Inui seems to have an aversion to tournaments with mass fails. For him it's a case of having enough clears on the course that he can keep the YouTube channel going strong in the months after the tournament airs. Also to ensure the course is easy enough that Iwamoto, Tsukada etc. can do well and drive ratings into the later stages. A bloodbath tournament would be great for all of us, it would be super interesting to see how resilient a lot of these newer stars who haven't had to deal with many changes are, but from Inui's perspective, his mascot celebs all failing early, and lack of breakout runs to drive the YT channel for at least a few weeks wouldn't be great for marketing purposes. Eh, social media is unfortunately the bread and butter of success these days.....