Number predictions for 41

[xelA197]

No worry guys, this will be my only thread containing the predictions, hoping a certain guy doesn't make 10 trillion of these. I only included the most well-known competitors, I didn't include random people who no one knows or people who have disappeared for 10-20 years.

1 Takashi Honma
3 Katsuhide Torisawa
8 Boruneesan
11 Koji Saikawa
14 Mei Higashimura
15 Kaede Sato
19 Yuta Nakashima
20 Kaiou Nagano
27 Toshiaki Kasuga
28 Fuwa-chan
29 Shunpei Yaegashi
30 Yoshinori Isa
31 Koki Takayanagi
34 Naoki Iketani
35 Akira Omori
38 Hideki Ajima
39 Rinne Sugeta
40 Yusuke Goto
45 Daisuke Matsuda
49 New Black Tiger
50 Hayato Takasuka
55 Soshina
56 Seiya
60 KAREN
61 HIKAKIN
67 Masashi Hioki
71 Hitoshi Kanno
72 Shunsuke Nagasaki
76 Miki Ando
77 Yusuke Suzuki
78 Kaito Streets
79 Yutaka Kyan
80 Rando Athlete
81 Hayate Kajihara
82 Tomohiro Mutou
83 Yoshikazu Fujita
84 Ryo Matachi
85 Naoyuki Araki
86 Jun Sato
87 Ayano Oshima
88 Hikaru Iwamoto
89 Ryoichi Tsukada
90 Kenji Darvish
91 Kane Kosugi
92 Rando Athlete
93 Shingo Yamamoto
94 Keitaro Yamamoto
95 Yoshiyuki Yamamoto
96 Katsumi Yamada
97 Tomohiro Kawaguchi
98 Tatsuya Tada
99 Yuuji Urushihara
100 Yusuke Morimoto


No doubts for 99 and 100. 93-95 with only Yamamotos would be cool, as well Yamada running immediately after his strongest protege (if I see him again with the number 50 I'll go crazy, he's a former finalist!). 97 will be for Tomo because we know how TBS loves him, while for Tada, not giving 98 to a double finalist would be criminal. Damn that we have to see the classic rando athlete in the 90s, as well Kane for me will remain as #91 since it seems to be his lucky number. And finally in my opinion there won't be any foreigners because you know how TBS and Inui hates them so much.

[dakohosu]

I feel like these are not so much predictions, but more what your ideal lineup is. Obvs this would be a great running order but realistically there are going to be a few differences. In terms of actual realistic predictions, these are my comments:

- Tada is not going to get #98 because he's known to not want the pressure of very high numbers. I can see him getting #95 tops, if not lower running alongside the rest of the Morimoto Sedai. Don't forget he got #73 after being the best performer the previous tournament.

- Yoshiyuki realistically is going to get #50 again. The Black Tigers have always been part of the "spread strong competitors throughout the field" group so I don't see that changing even if he did make the Final.

- Ayano is going to be grouped with the athletic females (probably high 70s-low 80s) so I don't think she'll get bookended by two guys.

- The Morimoto Sedai will probably all run together again given that Inui is trying to market them as the new 'it' group and he did so for 40. Where exactly they'll run I have no idea. Could be 70s like last time, but could also be low 90s given that all of them made it at least deep into Stage 3 last time.

- Tomo MAY get a lower number now that he's no longer affiliated with Per-Adra which was a big form of marketing for him and Sasuke as a show (he really started getting hoards of screen time from 35 onwards which was when he founded it), but yeah I can also see him getting something unwarranted like 97 again.

- A few of these guys may not compete, specifically Iketani because he did get declined from 39 and I believe only got invited back for 40 due to it being an anniversary tournament. Same with a few of the other celebrities, they may well not turn up.

[xelA197]

I'm aware that guessing exact numbers with Inui is literally impossible and I'm curious to see what masterpiece he will delight us with. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bunch of randos in the 90s and Saikawa as #1. I tried to do the best line-up possible considering also Inui's whims.

[dakohosu]

Sept 15, 2023 11:53:15 GMT -5 xelA197 said:

I'm aware that guessing exact numbers with Inui is literally impossible and I'm curious to see what masterpiece he will delight us with. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bunch of randos in the 90s and Saikawa as #1. I tried to do the best line-up possible considering also Inui's whims.

Saikawa actually did joke about getting #1 a while back before 40 given that his numbers went 55, 14, 9.... lol. I honestly wouldn't be surprised as he's the new Hioki/the first shoe-in to clear. 

But yeah, up to about 36 you could reliably guess numbers but now it's so random. Who would've expected to see Tada at #73 after being last man standing and the best performer?

[Ninja Relaxer]

I know it's traditional to give the top spots to champions, but I'd rather see Yoshiyuki at #99 than Urushihara (one of my favorite competitors) at this point. For one thing, I think Urushihara functions better at lower numbers, but also Yoshiyuki has earned a higher spot and the pressure it brings by reaching the Final Stage in Sasuke 40. I'd like to see how he fares under such pressure.

[xelA197]

I've a serious scare that Yoshi will become mister #50, regardless of his results. For me it's unforgiving to give #50 to a previous finalist, it will be a new record (excluding SK 25's lottery with Kongu as #40). The last tournaments saw several competitors wearing the same numbers each year, most notably Snowman with #88, Suzuki with #77, Yuuji with #99 and Torisawa with #3. And poor Saikawa, the ultra-extreme Hioki.

[katoshiho]

Don't forget Wasabi lol.
Perhaps, you can put Izumi Hikari at 80s for her first compete.
I'm also wait to see if Ishikawa Sho can compete.
PS, new Black Tiger might be 'Ugada', he even beat Yoshiyuki in some of the races.
It going to sure that each year there's a new black tiger coming.
Maybe we will see アルノー in SASUKE 42.

[xelA197]

Every year you say Hikari will compete and promptly she has never appeared in SASUKE so far. And for Wasabi, I remember as a sauce but not as a competitor. And sorry but I don't know who is Sho Ishikawa.

[loboticialtree]

It is possible that Inui's gonna put most of the numbers in a blender, and it become unpredictable. It is also possible that someone who hasn't competed in 10+ years makes a return. But anyways, due to the unpredictable nature of the numbers, it's likely that some rando comedian gets in the 80s because money. Also I think Kanno/Nagasaki will get a lower number, around 50s.

[YourResidentKojiFan]

Sept 16, 2023 7:46:43 GMT -5 loboticialtree said:

It is possible that Inui's gonna put most of the numbers in a blender, and it become unpredictable.

I've said a few times that Inui uses an actual dartboard to pick Saikawa's number, so... Honestly, you may not be wrong. Perhaps he draws the numbers out of a hat?

[dakohosu]

Sept 15, 2023 14:51:56 GMT -5 Ninja Relaxer said:

I know it's traditional to give the top spots to champions, but I'd rather see Yoshiyuki at #99 than Urushihara (one of my favorite competitors) at this point. For one thing, I think Urushihara functions better at lower numbers, but also Yoshiyuki has earned a higher spot and the pressure it brings by reaching the Final Stage in Sasuke 40. I'd like to see how he fares under such pressure.

Yuuji has only really struggled when he's worn #100, and he's been fine wearing #99 the past few tournaments. He's also much more confident a competitor now that he was back in, say, the RISING era, and he is the only other double champion other than Yusuke. So I don't think him wearing #99 is likely to negatively impact his performance anymore, like it did in 23 where he probably wasn't used to the pressure. If he had sucked badly in recent tournaments then yeah I would put him lower but his run in 40 was legendary given his age. It's also probably for marketing purposes that they put the champions in the top spots as they're fundamentally the favorites for majority of fans. I'd put Yoshiyuki right before Yamada, which is probably at #95 or thereabouts, though realistically he's probably going to get #50 again, which is a bit unwarranted but yeah knowing Inui......

Someone I'd like to see in the #90s would be Kajihara as he's both a celebrity and a serious dark horse/unknown at this point. I feel like him and Yoshiyuki are bordering on being "too good" to occupy the lower numbers at this point, unlike someone like Isa or Hioki who are reliable Stage 1/2 clears but aren't threats to reach the Final or anything. 

[dakohosu]

Sept 16, 2023 5:14:38 GMT -5 xelA197 said:

Every year you say Hikari will compete and promptly she has never appeared in SASUKE so far. And for Wasabi, I remember as a sauce but not as a competitor. And sorry but I don't know who is Sho Ishikawa.

Sho Ishikawa is part of that YouTube cohort of mad Stage 3 specialists who have never competed. I believe he applied for 40 and failed the first round of the trials. But I've seen him on YouTube and the guy is an absolute beast, can demolish Stage 3 in practice easily. Still unlikely to compete anytime soon though given Inui's brutal approach to newcomers.

Izumi I believe has frequently applied and has been rejected every time, which is a shame because she seems much more capable than Ayano, who Inui seems to put all his eggs in one basket as far as athletic Japanese females are concerned.

I believe Wasabi may return for the next tournament as I've seen on Instagram that he's been training regularly.

[loboticialtree]

Sept 16, 2023 10:41:55 GMT -5 YourResidentKojiFan said:

Sept 16, 2023 7:46:43 GMT -5 loboticialtree said:

It is possible that Inui's gonna put most of the numbers in a blender, and it becomes unpredictable.

I've said a few times that Inui uses an actual dartboard to pick Saikawa's number, so... Honestly, you may not be wrong. Perhaps he draws the numbers out of a hat?

That could actually happen, given he reserves a handful of numbers to some people (100 for Yusuke, 99 for Yuuji), and then he mixes it into two hats/dartboards, one for the numbers, and then a competitors name. Something like SASUKE 25's lottery system is possible for 41. 

[xelA197]

I hope Hikari will compete because I'm curious to see her in SASUKE, she can easily reach Stage 3 but unfortunately Inui loves too much Ayano as his top female and this will be a dream. Ishikawa I feel he's a Kishimoto-bis, a demon in Stage Three but absolute rubbish in Stage 1. Wasabi I don't know much of him but I doubt he will clear Stage 1, just see Matsuda and his insane time in training. And for Kajihara I think it's a miracle if he will wear a number in the 80s, knowing the director.

[edaan]

My only worry about Izumi competing is that she's 152cm, the same height as Chie Tanabe and 4cm shorter than Ayano who still failed the Spider Drop in 40. That makes it a nearly insurmountable obstacle if she wanted to make stage 3 (or if Inui wanted any Japanese women on stage 3). I don't want women who make stage 2 to just be Spider Drop filler. Obviously the solution I propose for this is removing the spider drop, not ban Izumi from competing, but to just have results that are that predictable is not what anyone wants.

[xelA197]

I won't be surprised if they nerf Stage 2 trying to help the Japanese womens. But instead, they will buff nonsensely the Third Stage, maybe adding a Swing Edge Kai or a Ultra Crazy Cliff Dimension.

[Ninja Relaxer]

The Spider Drop is such a lackluster "obstacle" that I'd be happy to see it go for any reason. Bring back the Spider Jump instead. It would make Stage 2 unpredictable again.

[Ninja Relaxer]

Sept 16, 2023 11:39:15 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Someone I'd like to see in the #90s would be Kajihara as he's both a celebrity and a serious dark horse/unknown at this point. I feel like him and Yoshiyuki are bordering on being "too good" to occupy the lower numbers at this point, unlike someone like Isa or Hioki who are reliable Stage 1/2 clears but aren't threats to reach the Final or anything. 

Kajihara is the most promising young competitor to me, but I think a #90s rank could jinx him at this point. He hasn't quite earned it yet, even if I think he will. Plus, I think he likes running around the same time as other tarentos like Saikawa, whom he seems to be friends with.

[dakohosu]

Sept 16, 2023 15:51:06 GMT -5 Ninja Relaxer said:

Sept 16, 2023 11:39:15 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

Someone I'd like to see in the #90s would be Kajihara as he's both a celebrity and a serious dark horse/unknown at this point. I feel like him and Yoshiyuki are bordering on being "too good" to occupy the lower numbers at this point, unlike someone like Isa or Hioki who are reliable Stage 1/2 clears but aren't threats to reach the Final or anything. 

Kajihara is the most promising young competitor to me, but I think a #90s rank could jinx him at this point. He hasn't quite earned it yet, even if I think he will. Plus, I think he likes running around the same time as other tarentos like Saikawa, whom he seems to be friends with.

Yeah maybe not; I'd have him in the 80s personally right now, as he's technically a "celebrity athlete" at this point as he does a lot of men's physique contests. I wouldn't want to see him next to Saikawa as the latter is going to get like #5 or something next time, lol. Kajihara imo is a run worth waiting to see because of how blisteringly fast he goes.

But yeah, he's the biggest unknown generally. Already had an impressive debut run almost clearing Stage 2, then comes in second place in his next run, and then gets the fastest times on both Stages 1 and 2 and almost clears the Cliffhanger. I feel like he's in the same position that Yoshiyuki was after 38. A dark horse who everyone slowly started to realise is the next threat to becoming the new rising star. He's been on such an upwards trajectory yet hasn't competed enough times that you can't count him out of anything at this point. I wouldn't be surprised if he makes the Vertical Limit next tournament.

[loboticialtree]

Also, if Inui will change 1 obstacle in Stage 1, hopefully it's the Silk Slider, it's not a good obstacle, and it only happened because the pandemic was in effect.