The 5 top contenders for Kanzen in each tournament

[zoran]

This post basically asks which top 5 competitors did the producers expect to do well in the respective tournament based on past results, outside events and experience.


Sasuke 39: Mormoto, Tada, Yoshiyuki, Yuuji, Jun Sato.

Sasuke 38: Morimoto, Tada, Yuuji, Jun Sato, Ryo

Sasuke 37: Morimoto, Ryo, Tada, Yuuji, Jun Sato

Sasuke 36: Morimoto,Kawaguchi, Drechsel, Jun Sato, Hioki

Sasuke 35: Morimoto, Drechsel, Kawaguchi, Jun Sato, Hioki

Sasuke 34: Morimoto,Drechsel,Kawaguchi, Jun Sato, Ryo

Sasuke 33: Morimoto, Ryo, Drechsel, Kawaguchi, Kanno

Sasuke 32: Ryo, Kawaguchi, Kanno, Drechsel, Asa

Sasuke 31: Ryo, Kawaguchi, Morimoto, Kanno, Kishimoto

Sasuke 30: Morimoto, Kanno, Asa, Ryo, Yuuji

Sasuke 29: Yuuji, Kanno, Ryo, Hashimoto, Asa

Sasuke 28: Yuuji, Ryo, Hashimoto, Lee En Chi, Kanno

Sasuke 27: Lee en Chi, Hashimoto, Yuuji, Okuyama, David Campball

Sasuke 26: Yuuji, Hashimoto, Lee En Chi, Kanno, Takahashi

Sasuke 25: Yuuji, Hashimoto, Nagano, Takahashi, Lee En Chi

Sasuke 24: Nagano, Yuuji, Takeda, Kanno, Takahashi

Sasuke 23: Nagano, Yuuji, Takeda, Kanno, Lee En Chi

Sasuke 22: Nagano, Takeda, Levi, Lee En Chi, Okuyama

Sasuke 21: Nagano, Levi, Shiratori, Takahashi, Takeda

Sasuke 20: Nagano, Takahashi, Levi, Yuji Washimi, Takeda

Sasuke 19: Nagano, Nagasaki, Takahashi, Takeda, Shiratori

Sasuke 18: Nagano, Nagasaki, Takeda, Shiratori, Kato Masafumi

Sasuke 17: Nagano, Shiratori, Koji Yamada, Takeda, Nagasaki

Sasuke 16: Nagano, Takeda, Shiratori, Koji Yamada, Katsumi Yamada

Sasuke 15: Nagano, Shiratori, Shinji, Asoaka, Katsumi Yamada

Sasuke 14: Nagano, Shiratori, Katsumi Yamada, Asoaka, Takeda

Sasuke 13: Nagano, Shiratori, Takeda, Akiyama, Shingo

Sasuke 12: Nagano, Yamada, Jordan, Shingo, Shinji

Sasuke 11: Yamada, Nagano, Shingo, Iketani, Takeda

Sasuke 10: Yamada, Nagano, Takeda, Shingo, Iketani

Sasuke 9: Shingo, Takeda, Yamada, Iketani, Shane Kosugi

Sasuke 8: Shingo, Yamada, Kuboki Hironori,Kane Kosugi Jordan

Sasuke 7: Yamada, Shingo, Takeda, Kane Kosugi, Akiyama

Sasuke 6: Shingo, Yamada, Akiyama, Kane Kosugi, Takeda

Sasuke 5: Yamada, Shingo, Omori, Miauri Eichi, Asoaka

Sasuke 4: Yamada, Shingo, Omori, Kawashima Takayuki, Tatsuya Yamamoto

Sasuke 3: Tanaka Hikaru, Omori, Ken Hasagawa, Akiyama, Yamada

Sasuke 2: Omori,Akiyama,Yamada?,Iketani, Yamamoto Yoshihito

Sasuke 1: Incredibly difficult to guess: Omori, Kawashima Hiroshi, Kane Kosugi, Yamada?, Yukio Iketani



As you can see, alot of the lower tournaments are based on pure speculation.

[dakohosu]

I'm not going to list contenders for every tournament but I agree with most of these. The only ones I'd make a comment on, in order from Sasuke 1-39:
- Why is Kato Musafumi listed for Sasuke 18? Yes he came first in the 1200m race but that's no indication of him performing well in the actual tournament as it takes more than to be good at running a mile to do well. I would've personally replaced him with Kongu as he made Stage 3 in his last two tournaments.
- I'm not sure if Levi was actually expected to do well in Sasuke 20 given that every other American Ninja Challenge competitor before him largely sucked a**.
- Okuyama came second in Sasuke 20 so I'd have listed him for 21.
- 25 and 26 I would've just gone with the 5 finalists from 24 as they all (bar Yuuji) made it the farthest in 25.
- I'd put Anastase somewhere in the top 5 for 32 as he did get a lot of hype after his insane breakout run; I'd maybe replace Drew given that he was never seen as a huge threat until he cleared the UCCH in that tournament.
- I wouldn't say Ryo deserved to have been in the top 5 for 33 or 34. Being strong at Stage 3 alone doesn't justify being in the top 5 especially as he was clearly on a decline by that point (which the producers noticed hence why he got digested in those tournaments).

It really just comes down to how many times in the last 2-3 competitions that a competitor has delivered a run in the top 5. I say 2-3 just because a competitor doing well in one tournament then flopping badly on the next obviously reduces confidence in their consistency and thus would make the producers less confident in believing they'd do well. Key example being Kishimoto who nearly reached the Final in Sasuke 30 but was only given #90 for 31 because his track record prior to that was so poor, then proceeded to fail Stage 1 in his subsequent attempts. Example of the opposite being Takeda who never delivered any truly groundbreaking runs but his consistency always resulted in him being one of the most hotly anticipated competitors to doing well.

[subtleagent]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Shiratori was never a kanzen threat in Shin-SASUKE. Yeah I go on about how it was badass that he beat Stage 1 in 21 despite his injuries (I mean let's face it, 19 ~ 21's Stage 1 was brutal and even after 2 nerfs the clears were in the 1 digits still), but it was clear he had past his prime by that point.

[Ninja Relaxer]

Is this just the 96-100 seeds for each tournament, minus the celebrities? Because that would seem to be the best way to determine who the producers thought would do well. It's really our only indication of their feelings on the matter (ranking), isn't it?

[dakohosu]

Sept 16, 2021 5:34:35 GMT -5 Ninja Relaxer said:

Is this just the 96-100 seeds for each tournament, minus the celebrities? Because that would seem to be the best way to determine who the producers thought would do well. It's really our only indication of their feelings on the matter (ranking), isn't it?

Originally I was going to ask this but it's not quite that simple (and a lot of zoran's choices weren't given those numbers), especially in earlier tournaments where a strong performance didn't necessarily equate to a high number, though it does sometimes obviously. 

In a lot of cases the All-Stars were given higher numbers than the 'secondary players' of the era even though the producers would've had to have been either stupid or delusional level biased to assume that some were as likely to achieve Kanzenseiha as their high numbers suggested later in their careers. Akiyama, Yamada, Nagano, and Shingo were all given numbers #98-100 despite being well into their respective declines. It wasn't because the producers thought they were the most likely to clear the course, it was if anything that they were almost treated as celebrities and were considered deserving of those numbers due to their contribution to the show, as well as external factors like Yuuji not wanting to wear #100 hence the number was given to Nagano throughout the RISING era. 

We've also got so many exceptions to the numbers rules to the point that to base the choices of a 'Sasuke Dream Team' (sorry for the s***ty name lol) on who wore the five highest numbers in a given tournament would be a risky choice, even after taking out celebrities. There are obviously exceptions to this like later tournaments (obviously after removing Darvish) but still. Hioki and the Black Tigers constantly get low numbers, some competitors actively opt for lower numbers (like Tada), some really terrible competitors get high numbers for no reason whatsoever (seriously, who wore #97 in Sasuke 17 for instance?) etc. etc. Hell, even picking the best competitors out of the last 20 runs would miss out on some really strong competitors. 

[ChiBiJKT48]

For SASUKE 1, we could look at those who don't get digested in First Stage. There are only 13 of them. So I assume it is Miura, Iijima *I mean, Bruce Lee-alike? No producers want to miss the chance*, Kane *they put commercial break in each of his runs in the tournament, that should tell you something*, Iketani Yukio, and Omori.

[dakohosu]

The editing and digesting of the tournaments happens after the tournament has been taped (pointing out the obvious here I know) so that's not really a reflection of who the producers were expecting to do well. They could've expected someone to do well than he/she fails the first obstacle and as a result, gets cut. By contrast, someone might have been expected to fail Stage 1 but then they end up doing really well so get their run shown in full.

There's really no way to tell who the producers were expecting to do well in Sasuke 1 given that the whole numbers rule didn't exist and there were no prior tournaments to base numbers on anyway.

I suppose their only reference point were with regards to who had done well in Kinniku Banzuke or were professional athletes. Omori, Kane, and Yamada had all competed in and done well in the former, while we had a fair few pro athletes like Yukio Iketani.

[ChiBiJKT48]

Hmmm... I guess you are right.

Still, yeah, very weird they digest Yamada if he ended up being one of Producers' favourites. And he is pretty well-known as well, people already seen him months prior in Quick Muscle, so I'm still to this day confused to why he was digested. It would make more sense to digest him in Second Stage.

[ChiBiJKT48]

Also, regarding DD in SASUKE 32, I say he is one of favourites. He was consistent up to the point and the newest Grand Champion wasn't there, so beside Kawaguchi, Kanno, Asa, and maybe Ragivaru due to his SASUKE 31 performance, he was Top Five Contenders to the Producers.

[subtleagent]

If I'm being honest, Levi was never a threat to kanzen. And his performances bar 20 never stood out and if you ask me his Slider Drop fail in 25 had to be one of the most underwhelming notes to end on (then again, one could say the same for his Shin-Cliffhanger fail in 23). Yes I knew he was going to turn in fast times, but I never felt he was going to kanzen and by that point he had already been eclipsed by so many other challengers that his runs kind of just blended into the background.

[dakohosu]

ChiBi I mean for 32 you did just list the 5 highest numbers not counting All-Stars. I agree with you though, hence why the numbers are good reference points to an extent but not always.

And I agree Levi was never a threat to Kanzen but he was definitely among the top 5 competitors expected to do well in Sasuke 21 at least given that he was the only Stage 3 attempt in the tournament prior. His later performances though consolidated that he had a tendency to make mistakes and that other competitors had higher potential especially on Stage 3 than he did. I personally never liked the guy; his reactions on the sidelines always seemed so fake and he came across really cocky especially in Sasuke 21. He basically called Stage 2 easy then proceeded to fail the Salmon Ladder which I found hilarious.

[subtleagent]

Sept 19, 2021 3:27:45 GMT -5 dakohosu said:

ChiBi I mean for 32 you did just list the 5 highest numbers not counting All-Stars. I agree with you though, hence why the numbers are good reference points to an extent but not always.

And I agree Levi was never a threat to Kanzen but he was definitely among the top 5 competitors expected to do well in Sasuke 21 at least given that he was the only Stage 3 attempt in the tournament prior. His later performances though consolidated that he had a tendency to make mistakes and that other competitors had higher potential especially on Stage 3 than he did. I personally never liked the guy; his reactions on the sidelines always seemed so fake and he came across really cocky especially in Sasuke 21. He basically called Stage 2 easy then proceeded to fail the Salmon Ladder which I found hilarious.

I'm told that eventually Nagano and Takeda told him to cool it with the showboating (and honestly I don't blame them) because he was pissing off the crowd. See when Muscle Musical guys did it, they were known for doing so and it was because it wowed the crowd. Levi by comparison was unknown to Japan and the way he did said stunts came off more as arrogant and it was clear he was just doing it to show off. I guess unlike Toyohisa Iijima it didn't cost him the stage.

I mean tbf he did get taken out by a modification he had no way of training for (the caps on the end of the bar), but yeah this is why you don't trash the course (*cough* Takeda in 25 *cough*). He was also quite infamous for all the swearing he did (especially his very audible f-bomb drop after Rich King's Log Grip fail). I'm honestly kind of surprised they kept the caps for the Double Salmon Ladder. Of course after Yuuji's bizarre fail in 25 and Iketani almost breaking his arms in 26 that's what convinced them to take them off, but still.

[dakohosu]

Honestly given that the weight of the bar was probably around 8-10 lbs in its original form I really don’t think a bit of extra metal on the end of each bar is going to have made much of a difference. I mean Okuyama, Nagano and Takeda all had way stronger attempts on the obstacle with the caps than without, and none of them built a Salmon Ladder so that shows it couldn’t have made much of a difference, at least not enough to counteract the training these guys put in. Mind you, I wouldn’t be surprised if Levi was so cocky that he didn’t train much between 20 and 21. I know he built a Shin Cliffhanger and that was it, and he still failed the obstacle 1.5 years later anyway.

Also I didn’t know he was actually told by Takeda and Nagano to stop showboating. Was this during his run or on the sidelines after? Honestly not surprised given that Japanese culture is very humble and respectful unlike Levi in every way possible. I very rarely get any joy out of seeing competitors fail, but seeing Levi fail the same stage he eluded to being easy, and then failing Stage 1 in the next tournament after that, was quite amusing. It at least grounded him for his later runs.

That’s why I always preferred David Campbell, because he was a lot more humble but also had much more potential on the later stages than Levi did (I mean the guy did win Sasuke Vietnam). I also liked Brent Steffensen until he started his recent trend of posting about controversial topics on his social media. Hence why he’s ‘retired’ (doesn’t get invited) to ANW anymore.

[subtleagent]

I wanna say this was around 23-ish. If I recall they looked kind of pissed when he corkscrewed into the water after his Shin-Cliffhanger fail so I think it was around that point. And tbf he showboated a LOT in 23 (mainly with that flip before the Tarzan Rope).

And yeah I think David was definitely a candidate for kanzen. His ANW record isn't quite as good, but given how good his is with grip and speed I could easily see him doing well in the RISING and Post-RISING era.

Yeah Brent really went down the rabbit hole and defending Drew's crime was probably the last straw. Though I'm not sure he'd have much chance in future SASUKE tournaments given his stamina really seemed to take a hit after ANW 4 (and he wasn't even that old he was in his early 30s when it happened). Yeah he made Stage 3 in 32, but that was on an easy Stage 2 that everyone beat, like I definitely wouldn't see him lasting long on 38's Stage 2.