tns8597
Jordan Jovtchev
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Posts: 1,282
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Post by tns8597 on Apr 12, 2021 14:30:18 GMT -5
I would take these results per stage - 1st Stage: I wouldn't mind less than 10 people clearing, as long as its near the tier of SASUKE 5 renewal where there are new killer obstacles but not like the SASUKE 19 course where everyone is eliminated at the First Stage.
- 2nd Stage: With them possibly retaining the Rolling Log, I would expect less than 5 people clearing, 38's 2nd Stage is one of the better stages in this era and if they stick with that kind of flow in the stage, it will be great as an essential speed stage with a high level of difficulty
- 3rd Stage: NO clears. Thats it. There are comments by Inui saying that they will try to modify the course to a point where its "Yusuke vs the course". In addition, he said that he'll modify 3rd Stage to the point where no one even reaches the Cliffhanger Dimension.
In terms of competitors - Yusuke might reach 3rd Stage again but it depends on the difficulty presented on the 1st Stage
- Yoshiyuki is the best bet for going far especially with his 38 performance
- Tada is also in the same case as Yoshiyuki
- Shin Sedai competitors like Yuuji and Ryo might time out on 2nd stage but like i said earlier it all depends on the difficulty of the 1st Stage
Makes sense, though I hope it doesn't turn out exactly like your competitors section as that's effectively a mirror image of 38. I'd like to see more shock fails, competitors like Yusuke, Sato and/or Hioki being thrown off early etc. Controversially I find Stage 3 far more engaging when it consists of a fairly unlikely roster of competitors (like in Sasuke 22) such as rookies or breakout runs, while the fan favorites go out early for reasons x, y, or z. That's personally what disappointed me about, say, Sasuke 35; the Stage 3 field was so predictable and consisted entirely of competitors who reached Stage 3 in 34, and thus the results, bar maybe Hioki's freak Planet Bridge fail, were also highly predictable. Either way, the Stage 3 field is fundamentally determined by Stages 1 and 2. Stage 1 we have no idea what'll stay and what'll go so in absence of further info it's hard to say who will do well. Stage 2 I think might be slightly modified like an updated Salmon Ladder but given that it was JUST buffed in difficulty I don't think the changes will be significant, especially to avoid running the risk of a complete wipeout. Because we have no idea on obstacles etc. my predictions are based purely on the most consistent/resilient competitors. So I'd assume competitors like Hioki, Sato, Yusuke, Yoshiyuki, Tada etc. are obvs the top choices for doing well, but as I said I hope that the field isn't that predictable and we get a few shock fails and maybe even an Anastase-like breakout run. And zoran, I'd say Kawaguchi only ever deserved #99 in 36 given that he came in second place, though even then I think the impressiveness of his feat was a bit overrated. He only went 'farther than anyone had before' because of the green resting bar, and in the following tournament, 5 out of 10 competitors went farther than he did as a function of that green resting bar. In 33 the number should've been given to Drew given his UCCH clear, and I'd argue in 35 as well given that he tied with Kawaguchi but put down far more impressive times and fluid performances. Then in 37 it should've been Yuuji or maybe Ryo.
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Post by Kane-Not-Kosugi on Apr 12, 2021 15:19:27 GMT -5
Why are you guys pretending Yusuke sucks at Stage 1 lol
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tns8597
Jordan Jovtchev
100%
Posts: 1,282
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Post by tns8597 on Apr 13, 2021 4:11:54 GMT -5
Why are you guys pretending Yusuke sucks at Stage 1 lol I'm actually saying the opposite; in that I'm worried that in order to stop Morimoto the producers will go down a Sasuke 19-like route just to make the course as hard as possible, because he has no obvious weaknesses they can capitalize on. I do think his near-Fish Bone fail in 33 is frequently forgotten about though; it's proof that even Yusuke can make mistakes, especially on unforeseen obstacles that incorporate new elements such as timing and balance, which wasn't really present in many of the recent tournaments prior.
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Post by subtleagent on Apr 13, 2021 10:41:12 GMT -5
They could incorporate a stricter time limit on Stage 1 given Yusuke has never been the fastest competitor and he did time out on Stage 2 in 30 due to taking the time limit too much for granted. And he barely cleared Stage 2 in 29 (which I can forgive since that Second Stage was literally built to stop Yuuji) The only time Yusuke's ever failed due to lack of stamina that I can think of is 34 (and maybe 22 from what he described) and that was due to an impossible combo.
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Post by Kane-Not-Kosugi on Apr 13, 2021 19:36:44 GMT -5
Yusuke isn't the fastest but if anything his Stage 2 run in 38 shows he can floor it when he needs. I don't really know if using 10 tournament-old runs as proof of him struggling is the most legit thing.
I could definitely see a 19 route going but I also don't expect much from Inui as far as the course goes, just buffs of the same obstacles.
Yusuke will obviously be #100 so if he needs to move quickly and still have a strategy for Stage 1, he'll have the entire day to watch other people and figure out how to overcome it. I have complete faith in him.
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Post by subtleagent on Apr 13, 2021 21:19:56 GMT -5
Perhaps, but of potential ways to stop Yusuke those are the only ones I can think of. Then again Yusuke only goes as fast as he needs to and his adaptability is definitely really good so it'll be hard to nab him. Unless they say make a wet Warped Wall on purpose this time.
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tns8597
Jordan Jovtchev
100%
Posts: 1,282
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Post by tns8597 on Apr 14, 2021 15:21:43 GMT -5
Not sure how feasible a wet Warped Wall would be; it would be quite hard to ensure that every part of the wall is equally wet for every competitor, and you'd also have to account for the effect of the weather drying out the water/making it more wet.
Either way, even a wet Warped Wall wouldn't stop Yusuke now. He only failed in 37 because the dampness that plagued the later runs was so unexpected, which arguably threw him off. Besides, he had a year to use that failure to psyche himself up for 38, so no doubt he aggressively trained the wall to the point that a bit of water here and there will do s*** all to him now.
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