Sasuke course renewal

[gokuisgod420]

What are your predictions for the course renewal after last years kanzenseihah

[tns8597]

Knowing Inui there's a big difference between modifications/ideas myself and likely other members of this forum want and what will actually be integrated. Given the supposed budget limitations the renewal is likely to be much closer to that of Sasuke 32 than, say, Sasuke 18.

My predictions for what I THINK is most likely to happen are as follows:

- There'll probably be some modifications to the first half of Stage 1 (especially after Sasuke 38 where half the joke competitors reached the Dragon Glider); the Rolling Hill+Quad Steps could be replaced as it's quite long in the tooth now, and the Silk Slider will defo be replaced by something harder given that it was only added due to Covid and took out basically no one.

- The Dragon Glider will likely stay and potentially be modified to be made even harder given it's central role in Stage 1; hopefully the first half of Stage 1 will actually be made sufficiently difficult and/or any modifications made to the DG aren't OP such that Stage 1 just ends up being a DG massacre like it was in 38.

- I think the Tackle and Warped Wall will stay as is and they won't re-integrate any sort of rope or lumberjack climb as it would be too expensive.

- I think the time limit in Stage 1 may take a big hit, purely because Morimoto's never been the fastest competitor and the producers are likely going to be targeting him/designing the course in such a way where he might fail early, just like they did with Nagano in Sasuke 19

- The Rolling Log will be kept in Stage 2 due to the damage it did in 38, while the only modification I think is likely to happen is a new Salmon Ladder (not sure what they'll do exactly) and potentially an even lower time limit. If the development of the post-Rising era is anything to go by, Inui seems to have a weird affinity for the Backstream so I think unfortunately it'll stay.

- As much as none of us want this, they'll probably make the Cliffhanger Dimension even harder as a Kanzen is supposedly the perfect excuse for a Cliffhanger modification, even though it's only been attempted once in working form. I can also see the Vertical Limit being modified due to the 100% clear rate over the last two tournaments; perhaps they'll add a jump or two this time?

- Not sure about the rest of Stage 3; we may see one or two new obstacles in the first half (which is what I'm hoping to negate the Cliffhanger's ridiculously central role in the stage). The Planet Bridge imo is the obstacle most likely to be replaced because it's not really done any damage in its tenure. The Pipe Slider I can unfortunately see staying as Inui's never bothered to modify or change it, but it's a shame as it's a really underwhelming end to the stage at this point. I really wish they'd just move the Flying Bar to the final obstacle and keep it as its original format with 6 cradles, but any reasonable suggestion just seems too much to ask these days.

- Final Stage will definitely be made harder: what it will comprise of though I have no idea. Hopefully, nothing along the lines of just one long rope climb like in 27, but I doubt that it will as that iteration of Stage 4 was formulated for the purpose of being intentionally easy.

[Kane-Not-Kosugi]

Inui did an interview with Yuuji and Hioki on YouTube. General notes he said he WANTS for 39, but not what is guaranteed happening:

Dimension might be completely RNG

Rolling Log staying in Stage 2

VLK staying, Planet Bridge potentially scrapped

Pipe Slider MIGHT be replaced

Wing Slider gone

Wants course to beat Morimoto similar to how they wanted to beat Nagano

Inui thinks the FISHBONE is his best chance at taking Yusuke down

Again, nothing is set in stone but these are ideas he's having

[tns8597]

Kane-Not-Kosugi thanks for this; it helps to actually know what Inui is thinking lol.

It'll be a huge negative if Inui blows a significant proportion of his supposedly limited budget on a super-motorized, even more OP Cliffhanger that will make Stage 3 even more predictable. Maybe he got worried by Yoshiyuki almost clearing (well, effectively clearing and being a victim of the production team's mistake); it just seems like every time a couple of people clear the Cliffhanger he feels the need to modify it. I figured the Planet Bridge would be scrapped as it's done basically zero damage; the idea is cool though. I thought maybe instead of spheres they make the handholds 2D circles which prevent competitors from putting their hands on top of the handholds, which as I understand makes the obstacle way easier than the Body Prop. The Pipe Slider I'm also glad is being considered for replacement as it's just too easy to be the final obstacle of an otherwise gruelling Stage 3.

Granted, the desire to take down Morimoto under any circumstance is slightly worrying given the trajectory they went down to try and defeat Nagano; this being Sasuke 19 where while they succeeded in taking down Nagano, no one else stood a chance which led to a really disappointing and monotonous set of results. I actually hope Inui tries to focus on Morimoto's weaknesses, which I think is Stage 1 and specifically the time limit of Stage 1, rather than just making the whole course ridiculously OP and taking out everyone else in the process. I don't think he will though as I'm sure he's aware of how bad like a Stage 2 ending would be for the ratings. I'm not sure the Fish Bone is the best obstacle to take Morimoto down though; I'd probably go with a lower time limit and/or a more gruelling version of the Tackle+Warped Wall, as Yusuke has struggled on raw strength-based obstacles before and he's often cleared with the slower times every tournament. It's not that he's inherently slow, rather he likes to use the time he has strategically. If he's forced to rush then that might be his undoing, like he did in 37 after his first failed Warped Wall attempt. The klaxon and pertinence of his last two attempts clearly got to him mentally and look what happened.

[Kane-Not-Kosugi]

I'm gonna agree with everything you said except for the last point. If the wall wasn't wet, Yusuke would've cleared in 37. It was a textbook run up until that point.

[tns8597]

I agree that his failure could've only been attributed to the weather as that was the underlying unique 'quirk' of 37's Stage 1, and the only time Morimoto failed the wall (not counting Sasuke 22 as he was literally like 16); put two and two together and it makes sense.

My point doesn't disagree with that fact whatsoever. It was more that 37 showed that even Yusuke can crack under pressure, particularly when it comes to time. We've seen several competitors who prefer to have a good chunk of time, sometimes 30-35 seconds left for the wall, because they see that as the biggest threat and want time to strategize (take Kawaguchi in 38, and even then he still failed); Yusuke on the other hand usually only reaches the wall with about 10-15 seconds remaining, because he evidently prefers to take his time on the rest of Stage 1 and has never seen the wall as a threat. So when he failed his first couple of attempts in 37, you could tell the pressure was getting to him as it was so unexpected for both himself and the crowd. This resulted in his last couple of attempts being quite shoddy and rushed, and nowhere near the top of the wall.

To me, this proved that if the time limit is made sufficiently stringent, such that Yusuke will have to rush certain obstacles, particularly new ones that are out of his comfort zone (and bear in mind him having to rush is already out of his comfort zone due to his slower strategic approach on S1, unlike say Anastase who just attacked the course head on), there's a good chance he could be caught off guard. And assuming the time limit is such that he only has around 5-10 seconds left for the wall, he may well crack under pressure whether the wall is wet or not as he'll know it's either make it up in one go or time out.

But hey, we can analyse the situation all we want; we just need to wait for Inui to announce Sasuke 39 and the result obstacle modifications/replacements to see the damage done.

[Kane-Not-Kosugi]

See what I gathered was the opposite from that situation, and I think there's more to support my claim. I don't think Yusuke cracks under pressure or ever lets the runs and results of others get to him.

I saw his rushes at the Warped Wall as the only logical and admirable Stage 1 failure of the day, since everyone else who timed up at the wall took like 1 run, MAYBE 2, but just spent their time panting and wasting it. Yusuke was the only one to keep making consistent attempts, which if anything still demonstrated his determination.

I do think his weakest Stage is Stage 1, but he's nowhere near capable of failing it unless some bs conditions like weather come up. His Stage 2 runs prove that if/when Yusuke wants to put the pedal to the metal, he'll do it. He had the fastest time on 38's Stage 2, faster than Jun (although yes, Jun was slow in 38's Stage 2).

I think if the time limit were shortened, we'd actually see Yusuke go FASTER than normal and not in a rushing way. Just in a "less break time" way. I think Yusuke is a lot quicker than people give him credit for in an era that had Jun, Asa, Anastase, He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named and even Rene. He just doesn't go fast if he feels he can be more calculated. If the stage forces him to, however, he'll push it and still be alright.

[tns8597]

I knew Morimoto was faster at Stage 2 but I attributed that to the Salmon Ladder and Spider Walk which he's an absolute speed demon on; also Yoshiyuki Yamamoto actually had the fastest time on Stage 2 in 38, and 37 for that matter (speaking of which, that guy is an absolute dark horse).

The reason I figured he wasn't particularly fast on Stage 1 is that unlike someone like Jun, he's not a parkour guy or particularly decorated in that sort of stuff; he's a rock climber who mainly trains Stage 3, so I assumed he had to take extra precaution when it came to the more agility-based obstacles.

So what do you think could catch him out if not the time limit? The only obstacle 'types' I've seen him really struggle on are 1) some seriously height-biased obstacles, but this was on ANW which is built for taller competitors and so similar obstacles wouldn't logically work on Sasuke and 2) raw strength-based obstacles, granted his struggles on the Wall Lifting were quite a while ago and few and far between, as well as the fact that he's never really had problems with the Tackle which poses a problem for people like Ryo.

It's really a tough call on how to take out Yusuke without entering another Sasuke 19 or Sasuke 32 scenario; the latter is less likely because he's so far ahead of the pack on Stage 3 that they'd either make it impossible then have to nerf the course and then Yusuke will be the first to clear it no doubt, or make it appropriately difficult but run the risk of Morimoto just dominating almost immediately. The former would also suck a** though, because no one wants another massacre that ends on Stage 2.

[Kane-Not-Kosugi]

I think because of inui's lack of original obstacles and low budget the best he can do is bring in something timing based (i.e. walk the plank from ANW11) or just cut the time limit. Everything else Yusuke will be semi-prepared for.

[gokuisgod420]

Heres how you take down Yusuke while making stage 2 hard again replace spider walk spider drop with the turning forks

[gokuisgod420]

If they really want to take down Yusuke bring back Sasuke 33 flying bar

[PizzaKing57]

I really hope the 1st and 2nd Stage won't be altered to be that much difficult, as I want to see an average total of clears, especially a redemption run from somebody who hasn't cleared Stage 1 in a while like the All Stars, Shunsuke etc. and not like the SASUKE 18, 28 or 32 scenario where less than ten clears occured. But here are my thoughts on what should / might be replaced throughout the course.

For Stage 1, Quad Steps should be replaced with the Shrinking Steps and the Fish Bone Kai should remain with six pedestals, but again adding a few more poles to increase the difficulty. I also believe the Dragon Glider is hard enough, given that the bar in this tournament either slid at a faster pace, causing notable challengers like Shingo to miss the second bar or that they were releasing too much momentum on the way down.

As much as I hate this obstacle in Stage 2, the Rolling Log will most definitely stay and the Salmon Ladder might be upgraded to the Criss-Cross version. And even though the Backstream is likely to remain in place, it should get replaced by something like the Wingnuts which has done lots of damage in ANW. I just hope it won't be tremendously redesigned again, given that many people failed due to dizziness last time and because of how I so want you-know-who to finally clear that badly.

In Stage 3, the Flying Bar should be repositioned to the final obstacle adding two more cradles at the end, but keeping length the same. And if the Planet Bridge will be removed, why not replace it with an arm-grueling obstacle like the Planet Hopper, where you keep jumping your way towards the end but on spheres instead of drums. For the Cliffhanger Dimension, it should remain the same as two moving ledges is hard enough and took out half the field, including someone who had previously beaten the obstacle twice before when it was easier. And the only thing that should change about the Vertical Limit Kai is the third ledge working in kinetic form by cycling up and down, in an identical fashion of the Ultra Crazy Cliffhanger.

And in the Final Stage, the Spider Climb should be replaced with the Brick Climb about 1m higher, leaving the Salmon Ladder and Rope Climb to stay as normal because of how difficult it looks already.