zoran
Jessie Graff
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Post by zoran on Feb 8, 2021 17:54:49 GMT -5
PizzaKing57 yes we know you don't like Hioki and you think he gets too much screen time. Firstly I definitely wouldn't say he's a 'regular' challenger; he's probably the strongest competitor we have right now only behind Morimoto, Yoshiyuki, and Tada (tied with Jun I'd say). He's certainly much more consistent than the rest of the Morimoto Sedai and the 'dying stars' I've listed, having made Stage 2 in 9 out of his last 10 competitions and Stage 3 on 6 of those occasions. Anyway, your first point is why I said that there was no 'tangible impact' of him doing well into his 40s; I've used this term a fair few times and what I mean by this is that an event occurring has a genuine positive or negative effect on that competitor's chance of achieving Kanzenseiha, an example being Kongu's Final Stage kerfuffle in 24 as he had a serious chance of actually winning it all otherwise. In Hioki's case, there's arguably no tangible impact of him reaching Stages 2 and 3 again in the next few years because we know he's 95% going to continue choking on the Cliffhanger, or 5% may clear it once but go out on the Vertical Limit, with both obstacles due for an even more grueling refresh. In fact, out of all those mentioned here, I wouldn't say any competitor's early fails have caused them to miss out on a potential Kanzenseiha, the exception being Ryo who I'm sure could've probably done it in 31, but I defo think he's missed his window as no way could the less interested, less consistent, and more out of shape Ryo have a real shot on the current Final Stage, which again is due for an even harder refresh. In terms of the others, Kanno's Final Stage attempt wasn't a near enough miss for me to think he would've won in 24 (or the even harder 31 for that matter), Shunsuke hasn't displayed whatsoever that he's capable of clearing Stage 3 again, Darvish doesn't even deserve to be acknowledged r/e this topic, and Tomo's Final Stage attempt was rubbish and his subsequent Stage 3 attempts haven't been particularly convincing that he's a genuine candidate for Total Victory, in spite of being branded as Mr #99 (it's even in his Instagram name; me thinks that's due for a change sometime soon). Obvs none of them have a shot now, hence the creation of this thread.... The only reason Kawaguchi's Sasuke 30 final stage attempt was poor was due to the poor traction on spider climb walls that lead to him slipping alot.His pace on the rope was impressive though.His main issue is just inconsistency with the cliffhanger jump and landing, he should practice that alot more and the vertical limit.He did second best in 34 and 35 and his performance on first stage in sasuke 32 was legendary.
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tns8597
Jordan Jovtchev
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Post by tns8597 on Feb 9, 2021 5:11:24 GMT -5
I don't think you can say the traction on the walls was poor given that Ryo who went right after him didn't have a problem whatsoever; it was either down to Tomo's shoes, poor technique, or the fact that he was just a bigger competitor that played in his disadvantage. Either way, he himself admitted that he wasn't ready to take on the Final Stage. He looked almost in shock when he cleared Stage 3 so I don't think he expected to make it that far.
And I always hear the whole 'competitor x should practice more' on obstacles they fail, which is assuming that they don't already on a tireless and endless level. Of course this is valid for certain instances like Kanno and Stage 1, for example, but I don't think it applies that much here. Kawaguchi constantly practiced the entire UCCH+VLK combo when that was still a thing, yet still failed the 180 in 34, and failed the VLK's first transition in 35 despite there being a green resting bar.
My best guess is that he probably didn't account for the additional fatigue from the earlier obstacles; the Sidewinder especially I think would've taxed his grip a fair amount. It's definitely a huge factor when considering that several instances of Stage 3 fails have occurred despite the competitor having been shown to practice on the obstacle, the only difference being between practice and real competition is the pressure and just that they're exhausted at that point. Morimoto found a way to account for this by doing the Vertical Limit with a 20kg weight vest to almost mimic the level of fatigue he would have at that point, which worked in his favour.
And r/e Kanno and Stage 1, I've stated endlessly that he doesn't practice for the stage-specific movements which is fundamentally why his attempts from 35-38 have regressed. His training comes down to just heavy weightlifting/bodybuilding and a bit of Stage 3 practice which isn't sufficiently focussed on his weak spots on the course, these now being the more agility-based obstacles because he's a larger competitor. Also with a looming renewal his chances, which are already slim given that it'd be 6 years since his last Stage 1 clear, would be even lower. He also strikes me as someone who tends to get mentally bogged down by poor performances (sort of like Yamada but nowhere near as bad), given how he often cries/shows anger after failing. Sasuke 24 is a perfect example, where he got held up on the HPA, which caused him not to think and try and rush the wall. You could just see from his face after each failed attempt that he was just becoming more and more desperate rather than actually trying to strategise rationally. So I defo think as well as the insufficient training for Stage 1 he's also mentally affected by these failures, which could perhaps be attributed to his three straight Dragon Glider fails; maybe he almost expected to fail the obstacle again which threw off his concentration, who knows?
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zoran
Jessie Graff
Posts: 1,015
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Post by zoran on Feb 9, 2021 6:42:58 GMT -5
I don't think you can say the traction on the walls was poor given that Ryo who went right after him didn't have a problem whatsoever; it was either down to Tomo's shoes, poor technique, or the fact that he was just a bigger competitor that played in his disadvantage. Either way, he himself admitted that he wasn't ready to take on the Final Stage. He looked almost in shock when he cleared Stage 3 so I don't think he expected to make it that far. And I always hear the whole 'competitor x should practice more' on obstacles they fail, which is assuming that they don't already on a tireless and endless level. Of course this is valid for certain instances like Kanno and Stage 1, for example, but I don't think it applies that much here. Kawaguchi constantly practiced the entire UCCH+VLK combo when that was still a thing, yet still failed the 180 in 34, and failed the VLK's first transition in 35 despite there being a green resting bar. My best guess is that he probably didn't account for the additional fatigue from the earlier obstacles; the Sidewinder especially I think would've taxed his grip a fair amount. It's definitely a huge factor when considering that several instances of Stage 3 fails have occurred despite the competitor having been shown to practice on the obstacle, the only difference being between practice and real competition is the pressure and just that they're exhausted at that point. Morimoto found a way to account for this by doing the Vertical Limit with a 20kg weight vest to almost mimic the level of fatigue he would have at that point, which worked in his favour. And r/e Kanno and Stage 1, I've stated endlessly that he doesn't practice for the stage-specific movements which is fundamentally why his attempts from 35-38 have regressed. His training comes down to just heavy weightlifting/bodybuilding and a bit of Stage 3 practice which isn't sufficiently focussed on his weak spots on the course, these now being the more agility-based obstacles because he's a larger competitor. Also with a looming renewal his chances, which are already slim given that it'd be 6 years since his last Stage 1 clear, would be even lower. He also strikes me as someone who tends to get mentally bogged down by poor performances (sort of like Yamada but nowhere near as bad), given how he often cries/shows anger after failing. Sasuke 24 is a perfect example, where he got held up on the HPA, which caused him not to think and try and rush the wall. You could just see from his face after each failed attempt that he was just becoming more and more desperate rather than actually trying to strategise rationally. So I defo think as well as the insufficient training for Stage 1 he's also mentally affected by these failures, which could perhaps be attributed to his three straight Dragon Glider fails; maybe he almost expected to fail the obstacle again which threw off his concentration, who knows? Ryo struggled a bit too. I think in Sasuke Vietnam Kawaguchi tried the spider climb again and had no problem. He should take from Morimoto and adopt some of her training techniques. In 35 he never attempted the transition on the vertical limit before, the obstacle is hard, you can't really blame someone for failing it.
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tns8597
Jordan Jovtchev
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Post by tns8597 on Feb 9, 2021 7:27:40 GMT -5
Yeah I defo wasn't blaming him; my point was that you can endlessly practice an obstacle and still fail it in competition for reasons x, y, or z. 'Training harder' isn't always the answer, 'training smarter' may be more applicable. Tbh most competitors these days train both hard and smart with exact obstacle replicas and they even mimic entire stages; the whole not accounting for tiredness thing was just an educated guess as to why competitors fail strength-based obstacles in competition, though I'm sure it's applicable in some cases.
Yamada's a perfect example of someone who trained hard but not smart, where he kept practicing the Warped Wall but constantly grabbed the lower bar, and look what happened there. Also in his case, he trained so hard to the point that he had to drop everything else to maintain that quantity of training, which obvs meant that he put more on the line for Total Victory, and in doing so that put infinitely more pressure on him which messed up a load of his performances.
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Post by subtleagent on Feb 11, 2021 3:26:14 GMT -5
If I had to pick one, I'd say either Kawaguchi or Ryo. Both are still reasonably athletic. Nagasaki seems less driven for family reasons and of course there's taking care of Takamasa. And Kanno just really seems out of it, his injuries keep holding him back and it's clear he's not as invested in the show as he used to be. I'm sure both of them are capable of bouncing back. As for Darvish, the only reason he failed in 38 was cause the Dragon Glider jammed.
That said, Ryo would've totally timed out had he not been lightning fast through the Fish Bone. The Tackle is definitely his enemy, hell he spent almost 20 seconds moving it and barely had enough to get over the Warped Wall. Then again, Kawaguchi bizarrely failed it in 38 due to his unorthodox technique and apparent fatigue from the Tackle, so maybe Ryo has the more likely chance at this point provided he trains more again.
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YGK
Paul Hamm
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Post by YGK on Feb 11, 2021 23:25:33 GMT -5
That said, Ryo would've totally timed out had he not been lightning fast through the Fish Bone. The Tackle is definitely his enemy, hell he spent almost 20 seconds moving it and barely had enough to get over the Warped Wall. Then again, Kawaguchi bizarrely failed it in 38 due to his unorthodox technique and apparent fatigue from the Tackle, so maybe Ryo has the more likely chance at this point provided he trains more again. I notice Ryo always speeds through the first half of the course to make sure he has plenty of time when he reaches the tackle. Yuuji also did it back in Sasuke 31, but Ryo has been doing that even in sasuke 35 to 38. It's like the complete opposite of the way Morimoto takes on stage 1.
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Post by Ninja Relaxer on Feb 11, 2021 23:33:02 GMT -5
The Tackle is definitely harder on Ryo than it is on many other competitors. Smaller competitors in general seem to fare worse on it. From what I recall, Ryo and Urushihara don't even have broad enough torsos to push with their shoulders, as the obstacle is designed. They almost always push with their hands, which I would guess is both harder and uses different muscles.
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tns8597
Jordan Jovtchev
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Post by tns8597 on Feb 12, 2021 5:41:57 GMT -5
Ryo and Yuuji just don't have the right body type for raw strength-based obstacles. In addition to their narrow shoulders which hinder them on the Tackle (which btw good spot I never noticed that), their stature works against them in pretty much every way.
It's why I've always found the Tackle to be a really interesting addition to Stage 1, because the rest of the stage is far more intricate and technical and definitely geared towards smaller and more agile competitors, whereas the Tackle obviously favours more powerful statures and particularly those with a lot of leg power. Hence I wasn't really surprised when Ryo and Yuuji failed Stage 1 in Sasuke 31 because it was the first new element in a long time that directly worked against their profile; whereas people like Drew and Anastase had no trouble, with more powerful legs and their height meant that it took fewer strides for them to get through the obstacle.
Mind you, Kawaguchi's in that category of being a bigger competitor at 5'10 and much more powerful in absolute terms, yet recently seems to have struggled with the Tackle ultimately leading to his Warped Wall failures.
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