tns8597
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Post by tns8597 on Feb 5, 2021 14:16:58 GMT -5
I just thought I'd make a general post for several competitors to avoid there being multiple threads each for a particular competitor in question. Which of the former stars who have recently been on a decline will bounce back?
To avoid the ambiguity of the meaning behind 'bounce back', I mean that they will at least make it to the Cliffhanger again and display some form of return to consistency (e.g. not like Ryo and Sasuke 36), rather than continuing to decline further and further. If I've missed anyone who you think should be here out, please comment below and anyone who votes yes for that competitor should like that comment. For now, I've listed Ryo, Shunsuke, and Kanno for obvious reasons (TBS seems to agree as they were grouped in the #70s in 38), as well as Darvish and Kawaguchi due to two consecutive First Stage failures as well as both being 40 so some would argue that this serves as a reason to say 'no' to the question above.
I personally vote no for all of them except for Kawaguchi. The main reason is that with Stage 2 no longer being a free pass for most to Stage 3 (if 38 is anything to go by, and is likely to be made even harder for 39) and so many consistent competitors falling foul to this new iteration, I think a lot of these guys would really struggle with the time limit and the added dizziness of the Rolling Log.
I would've been inclined to vote yes for Ryo given that he's the youngest in this group and he did almost return to the Final Stage in 36, but he's just gotten quite out of shape and his performance on Stage 2 in 38 was really disappointing and defo a function of his lack of interest for training of recent; going from someone who had never failed any version of the Cliffhanger to spending 50 seconds on the Salmon Ladder before gassing out.
As for Nagasaki and Kanno, neither have their head in the game anymore as shown by their absences from any training sessions; Nagasaki's got his own family commitments and never trains for Sasuke anymore, while Kanno has just adopted a bodybuilder-style method of training which serves little purpose on Stage 1 which has been his Achilles' heel (if you'll pardon the pun) for the last 6 years. Besides, as mentioned before, I don't think either would stand a chance on Stage 2 if they were to make it there, given the damage it did in 38 despite competitors actually knowing about the obstacle beforehand (as it was teased in 37), and neither strike me as the sort of competitors who would've trained those specific movements.
Darvish I vote no because I personally think his Stage 3 in 36 was a bit of a fluke as he lasted about 20 seconds and has never even made the Cliffhanger anyway. Plus, given the troubles he's had on Stage 2 I don't see him making it past this new iteration whatsoever.
And finally Kawaguchi; despite him being nearly 40, I think his recent failures have just been a function of picking up poor habits on the wall. Taking too long between attempts, and rather than running up high on the wall, he tries to jump from a low point and just misses (not really surprising as that's a rock climbing move). If the rest of his runs in 37 and 38 were anything to go by, he doesn't seem to have lost much actual fitness/seems quite resilient relative to his age; he's still fast and nimble like he was in earlier tournaments. As for Stage 2, out of all the listed competitors here I think he's got the best chance due to his experience on the stage. He also attends several training sessions so no doubt he'd prepare in advance for the Rolling Log. I can hence defo see him making a couple of last stands on Stage 3, where he's generally been quite consistent in getting a significant way through the stage, usually making it to at least the Cliffhanger, if not further.
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Post by PizzaKing57 on Feb 5, 2021 15:09:55 GMT -5
In terms of the people you have listed, I will give my specific response:
For Kanno, I'm saying no because of how he's failed to even clear Stage 1 in the last five and a half years now, even though he was shown to have practised the Cliffhanger last year at Matsuda's training ground, but I personally think that his injuries have gone overboard now to the point where even if he reaches the 2nd Stage again (which is unlikely), he will be guaranteed to either fail or time out there, as he hasn't been practising hard for that level, which is even tougher now.
For Ryo, I'm going with a yes because although many people thought he was done for until he bounced back to the 3rd Stage in 36, he's still in his early 30s and I do believe that if he practises a bit harder for the 2nd Stage, he may return to the 3rd Stage but clearing it? Unlikely if you ask me because of how less he's trained for SASUKE over the years and certainly looks weaker now.
I'm also controversially saying yes to Shunsuke, probably because I'm just being too generous here but he's still only 33 and I would really like to see him attempt the Cliffhanger one more time before his retirement, to see if he can clear it or not, as that's one of the only obstacles that he's practised for the most in his garage. I'm only going to say though that he has about a 20% chance to reach the 3rd Stage now, due to barely training for SASUKE like Ryo, however isn't out of shape like him though so anything is possible.
Kawaguchi, I'll say maybe because he's approaching 40 this year and has already started to peak after 36, where he was shockingly the only person to fail the first transition of the Cliffhanger and then suffered two devastating Warped Wall failures in a row. He seems to have evolved into the new Bunpei of the younger generation and I do believe that he'll have one or two more good runs left in him, but I'm not really confident in him beating Stage 2 though cause of how much tougher it is now.
Lastly for Darvish, I'm going with a no because despite still training for SASUKE, he's already turned 40 and as he gets older, the course will just be more difficult for him to overcome and for this tournament, I did predict a Cliffhanger fail for him but because he failed the 1st Stage twice in a row now, I definitely have to agree that his trip to the 3rd Stage in 36 was a fluke and as it's likely to increase the difficulty following Morimoto's Total Victory, I just don't see a possibility of Darvish reaching the Cliffhanger anytime soon.
One of the reasons as to why I also find 38 to be a negative tournament is because these dying stars, including the All-Stars (with the exception of Ryo), all continued to fail the 1st Stage again and I was at least hoping for one more of those humans to clear, but instead continued their slump.
In addition, 80% of these dying stars are also the modern-day equivalents of the All-Stars.
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tns8597
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Post by tns8597 on Feb 5, 2021 15:29:33 GMT -5
'If he practises a bit harder' is why I went with no for Ryo; he just doesn't strike me as being invested enough to train ever since he was robbed of a Total Victory by Morimoto in 31.
Also, Shunsuke isn't out of shape but he's one of the bigger competitors and much bulkier than he was in his hay day, which I defo think would work against him in every stage.
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Post by Ninja Relaxer on Feb 5, 2021 16:13:56 GMT -5
Honestly, I think it's a "no" for all of them, but because Ryo is the most likely to bounce back out of this group, I voted for him. He's still young, and the course is still mostly designed for his physique. Whether he has the drive to train as hard as he needs to, though, remains to be seen. Personally, I think he has mentally checked out of Sasuke and just doesn't train hard enough anymore. That could change in the future, but I doubt it.
Speaking of which, have we _ever_ seen a competitor lose their interest in Sasuke and regain it enough to become a top competitor again? Because it seems to me that we haven't; it is, at least, exceedingly rare. Generally, when a competitor manages to return from a slump, it's because the slump was physically- and not mentally-related. A competitor overcoming an injury or disability and returning to top form, for example, is a common trope in Sasuke history. A competitor losing their interest, then regaining it, not so much.
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tns8597
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Post by tns8597 on Feb 5, 2021 18:21:58 GMT -5
That's why I went with Kawaguchi, because he's much more mentally invested r/e specific training and attitude than Ryo, Nagasaki or Kanno, which is defo what it takes given the latter three's recent results.
Darvish is obvs very passionate about Sasuke too and trains on loads of replicas but it doesn't seem like his natural potential/limit is that high.
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azn
Ishikawa Terukazu
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Post by azn on Feb 5, 2021 18:24:53 GMT -5
Speaking of which, have we _ever_ seen a competitor lose their interest in Sasuke and regain it enough to become a top competitor again? Because it seems to me that we haven't; it is, at least, exceedingly rare. Generally, when a competitor manages to return from a slump, it's because the slump was physically- and not mentally-related. A competitor overcoming an injury or disability and returning to top form, for example, is a common trope in Sasuke history. A competitor losing their interest, then regaining it, not so much. I don't like using the mental bug, unless it's obvious, and the first person that came to mine was Yuji. I think it was clear to all of us he was ready to give up on Sasuke and that almost happened in SK34, obviously we know what happened and this has led to one of his best runs as a competitor. I can think of some one time instances like Akiyama in 16 and Nagano in 27 and 30 but other than those and some others, it's a rarity. Anyways regarding the topic, the guy with the biggest potential bounce back is Ryo, which is why I chose him, obviously on a good day he can have an amazing run, but those good days haven't been given to him a lot. After seeing a thread, apparently Kanno reinjured his shoulder or something, but either way if he hasn't hit his twiglight of his career, he has now. I doubt Shunsuke prioritizes Sasuke now due to what's happening in his life outside the course and in all honesty, he's been on borrowed time for a while now. I need to see Tomo compete in one more tournament before I'm confident in my decision Finally Darvish, despite what his makeup shows, is actually getting up their in age and I think we can all agree he's no age defying demigod like Okuyama or Yuji so unless he abuses the fountain of youth, good chance he's gonna not make it past the first, or even the second
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Post by m4tt3r0x on Feb 5, 2021 21:03:07 GMT -5
The “Dying Stars” lmfao...
For the cliff: Tomo > Shunsuke > Kanno > Darvish
Back to back fails on the wall by Tomo is alarming IMO. I don’t know how you let that happen twice in a row unless your legs are actually giving out unexpectedly. Contrary to popular belief though height =/= automatically being better at the wall. Tomo’s at a bit of an awkward height at 5’10 where you’re not quite tall enough to just cheese it and you’re also too lengthy to be able to easily run all the way up it while leaning back with your legs bent like Nagano used to do it before he got old. Anyway I can see him getting back to Stage 2 and getting wasted and at 40 years old unless he starts getting dedicated like Yuuji he’s in for a rough time methinks, because I think the two wall fails are an aging thing.
Shunsuke and Kanno also have to get more dedicated to every get back to the Cliff. I can see Kanno trying and not succeeding, and Shunsuke not trying and not succeeding on the new Stage 2. Kanno might really struggle on the wall as he hasn’t attempted the current iteration yet, and he timed out on it USA vs the World once and he was like 30 then.
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tns8597
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Post by tns8597 on Feb 6, 2021 6:15:55 GMT -5
azn Ryo would've definitely got a yes from me given what we've seen he can achieve when he applies himself, but something about his performance in 38 just seemed really off to me; obviously, we know that Stage 1 is his biggest enemy, but to see him gas out on the Salmon Ladder really made me think that his lack of training was really starting to affect him to the point that even his upper body strength, which has always been his 'get out of jail card', was starting to suffer, and Ryo with compromised upper body strength for me is a bit of a write-off. Obvs being his usual cocky self he went into the obstacle way too quickly without taking the time to shake off the dizziness, but 4-5 years ago the prospect of him failing such an easy obstacle would've been laughed at; even Snowman did better than him. Also a lot of people are saying 'if he trains harder' he'll do well, but that's the million-dollar question at this point and I really don't think he cares that much anymore; Ninja Relaxer made a good point that we've never really seen a competitor lose interest and then regain it which is what pushed me to vote 'no'. I think he'll probably make Stage 2 again maybe but likely make a silly error or time out, as speed has never been his strong point.
I can honestly see either Shunsuke and/or Kanno retiring in the next 2-3 tournaments; Shunsuke because his passion for Sasuke has just waned massively since 35 and the results from then on speak for themselves (if you look at his fail in 38, he just didn't really seem to care that much), Kanno's been plagued with injuries hence doesn't train as he used to, and both have ever-increasing family commitments.
I'm still going with a yes for Kawaguchi, but if he fails Stage 1 for a third straight time then I may have to revise my predictions, especially if he fails early like on the Fish Bone or something. I just think that he's the only one in this group to both still have a passion for Sasuke and be capable of having a couple more convincing runs (the latter point ruling Darvish out); and as we've seen, given the intensity and specificity of training required to do well, once your head isn't in the game anymore your results suffer almost immediately. All of these points in favour of Kawaguchi are age notwithstanding, because yes he's turning 40 this year but the difference between 35 and 40 these days is really not that significant and can be overcome with training. Besides, it's not like he has any family commitments to weigh him down, and he's obvs busy with Per-Adra but given that it's a rock climbing shoe manufacturer it just gives him more of an excuse to train....
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Post by PizzaKing57 on Feb 6, 2021 15:19:14 GMT -5
I really hope that Shunsuke doesn't retire early, given that he firstly competed at 17 and usually the challengers retire as soon as they've hit their 40s and Shunsuke is almost in his mid-30s. If he plans to take another hiatus from competing because of family reasons then I'll understand, however I will deeply miss him if he retires permanently.
In his translated interview for this tournament, I am relieved so far that he didn't say anything about wanting to retire and also said that he trained physically with confidence that he'd beat the 1st Stage this time, but to see him continuing his downward spiral instead, is just upsetting.
It would've also been exciting if he still had the intention to reach the Final Stage again like he did at 19, but at least he plans to return with his brother again, if he is healthy enough to do so, as he can't perform on trampolines or drive for a couple of years.
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Post by m4tt3r0x on Feb 6, 2021 15:40:08 GMT -5
Speaking of Shunsuke, does anyone else think it’s possible to muscle up on to the top of the bar after not getting let go on the transfer and jumping to grab the other bar? I mean you’d 100% be d/q’d but still. If it wasn’t against the rules then at least you wouldn’t have to miserably dangle their for 30+ seconds hopelessly, and I don’t even think it’s that dangerous for old Sasuke safety standards anyway...
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tns8597
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Post by tns8597 on Feb 6, 2021 15:56:51 GMT -5
That seems like a move that if allowed would be much easier than the actual transition.....
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Post by m4tt3r0x on Feb 6, 2021 17:31:20 GMT -5
Idk about that. The track isn’t too level and the bar would probably pull back some even before trying to jump. It would at least chew up more time. Plus you’d have to catch a bar at the level of like your shins a good 8 or so feet away at least. I still think an athletic enough competitor could do it tho
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tns8597
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Post by tns8597 on Feb 7, 2021 12:35:40 GMT -5
Fair point.
But what you mentioned about having to catch the bar being at shin level, that’s why I would controversially agree that it would be too dangerous to be a viable move. If you come up short then obvs you just miss the bar entirely and fall in the water, but if you overshoot the jump you could easily face plant into the bar which would probably result in a very expensive lawsuit....
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Post by m4tt3r0x on Feb 7, 2021 13:00:31 GMT -5
Yeah I know. It’s highly unlikely, but enough to be an instant no-go even for M9 probably. Though I’m surprised with some of the stuff M9 put out and would say some of those obstacles were arguably more dangerous, like 27’s HPA. Even some of their obstacles left people prone to horrific face plants too
Edit: Also don’t even get me started on some of the obstacles ANW puts out. I remember some guy either almost or successfully did face plant after jumping up to that propeller bar obstacle on Stage 1, missed, and hit the mat at the end. I think Asa Kazuma did a similar thing in USA vs Japan. I’ll never understand how some of the stuff on that show gets put on. I really don’t like ATS or whatever the obstacle company is called. They make M9’s courses look like nothing.
I saw the Corkscrew obstacle on Season 12 and turned it off then and there. Why do I want to watch people break their wrists as an obstacle? What an unpleasant show
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tns8597
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Post by tns8597 on Feb 7, 2021 15:18:22 GMT -5
Yeah, it honestly makes me so surprised that elbow and knee pads were never a thing prior to 28; I mean it required someone who I won't name to literally destroy his ACL by landing on that very HPA you're referring to, for them to actually consider them.
And yeah agreed about ANW; Asa faceplanted into the Swing Circle from what I remember and that looked so painful, and I think the Propeller Bar incident was Kong. The issue with ANW is that both their huge budget and the number of courses they have to design (i.e. qualifiers and finals for every region as well as 'Mount Midoriyama') allow them and encourage them to get really creative with new obstacles. A lot of these obstacles also have the potential to be much larger and more dynamic as a function of the budget and the fact that the competitors are generally much taller as well, hence also much more dangerous. I don't really care for ANW so I had to look up that Corkscrew obstacle you mentioned and even successful transitions looked absolutely horrendous to watch.... In fact I'm thinking of all the obstacles I remember from the ANW Finals; things like the Grim Sweeper, Snap Back, Deja Vu etc. are all just asking to get faceplanted into lol. That said NBC can defo afford a few lawsuits here and as a trade-off for the 'entertainment'.
Sasuke by comparison is a much smaller and more technical course, firstly to accommodate the Japanese competitors' smaller and lighter stature, and also because they don't have a million stages to design they have more time to focus on those that are both challenging but also safe, and usually stick with those obstacles for a few tournaments due to budget limitations. Everything just requires an intricate strategy to get through; there's little chance to injure yourself on obstacles like the Fish Bone or Quad Steps, and yes Kanno injured himself recently in 33 but that move was arguably f***king dumb so what can you do.
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azn
Ishikawa Terukazu
"There's a time and place for everything... BUT NOT NOW!!!" - Prof. Oak
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Post by azn on Feb 7, 2021 15:50:12 GMT -5
Ik this is unrelated to the convo you guys are having but I've been thinking lately if Hioki will slowly fit into this category
I hope he doesn't as he has become another ageless wonder however after seeing his stage 2 run and knowing that for the most part, he will probably not complete a 2nd transition on a cliffhanger with multiple transitions, yet alone the 2nd transition of the Cliffhanger Dimension, I think if he struggles unexpectedly like Tomo, I feel he would be what you guys now refer to as a dying star.
Maybe a bit too early to tell but something I'll keep my eye on next tournament.
Back to the convo and regarding ANW obstacles, their was also that one obstacle which became famous for injuring rock climber and Team Europe rep Magnus Midtbo, it was a combo of the Stair Hopper (or whatever it's called) but with bungee's added and from Magnus's video, I'm honestly surprised they still rolled on with using it, considering it also broke with another guy (though weight might have been a factor that occasion) (ooh, blood, hopefully y'all are fine with that)
So sometimes the show wants people to do face plants, but then theirs obstacles like that.
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tns8597
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Post by tns8597 on Feb 7, 2021 16:24:47 GMT -5
I wouldn't say that Hioki's Sasuke 38 performance was anything to go by because the Rolling Log took everyone by surprise (even Jun Sato who's the 'consistent' in 'consistency' almost timed out) and he would've definitely once again made Stage 3 had it not been for that fact as he timed out so close to the buzzer. He hasn't really shown any signs of slowing down/doing worse otherwise, unlike Kawaguchi's two consecutive failures on an obstacle he'd never had a problem with prior which is far more concerning, or Ryo failing that early on Stage 2.
It's quite difficult to tell though honestly because there's a lot of heterogeneity between the way in which competitors decline as they age; some decline slowly like Shingo and Shunsuke, while others suddenly start doing badly and never recover like Kanno and Yamada. The latter is largely a function of mental blockades from those past failures having this domino effect which affects future performances indefinitely, but the former can come in the form of gradually waning interest in training and/or the gradual effects of ageing on stamina and fitness.
Hioki doesn't strike me as someone who's showing any signs of losing stamina or fitness and is still consistent as ever despite his ever-growing family commitments. His emotional resilience to failures is questionable though as he recovered from a rough patch in 32-33, but has also never cleared the Cliffhanger out of 5 attempts in competition despite completing it multiple times in practice. He's turning 40 this year but as we're increasingly seeing age is just a number; there seems to be this stigma around competitors turning 40 but I think that's mainly because most competitors who could've still done well into their mid-to-late 40s (like Okuyama or Kongu) quit beforehand, so results wise it seems so unlikely. As I said his resilience to failures is definitely something to be discussed and I certainly don't think there'll be any tangible impact of his future performances as he won't make it past the Cliffhanger, but I do think we'll see him reach Stages 2 or 3 again at least a couple more times given his recent trajectory of results.
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Post by PizzaKing57 on Feb 7, 2021 16:35:10 GMT -5
I wouldn't really care if Hioki became one of the new dying stars and I was glad that he didn't even make it to the 3rd Stage in this tournament, as he would've 99% disappointingly failed the Cliffhanger again or earlier, showing no promise in ever beating that obstacle, thus being the most unexciting challenger to watch in that particular stage. Even if he did beat the Cliffhanger (let's face it, it's not going to happen with the functional ledges), he would still have a tough time on the Vertical Limit and has never really shown that he has a legitimate shot of making it to the Final Stage.
Because of these reasons I've outlined above, Hioki isn't one of my favourites to watch and I wish that other younger challengers like Shunsuke, Araki etc. would do better than him. I'm also annoyed that he's the one getting the most amount of screentime, when he's just one of the regualar challengers in the ninja community, like most other people. I'm not surprised either that nobody included him in the Top 5 excited to watch challengers thread for this tournament.
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tns8597
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Post by tns8597 on Feb 8, 2021 13:33:43 GMT -5
PizzaKing57 yes we know you don't like Hioki and you think he gets too much screen time.
Firstly I definitely wouldn't say he's a 'regular' challenger; he's probably the strongest competitor we have right now only behind Morimoto, Yoshiyuki, and Tada (tied with Jun I'd say). He's certainly much more consistent than the rest of the Morimoto Sedai and the 'dying stars' I've listed, having made Stage 2 in 9 out of his last 10 competitions and Stage 3 on 6 of those occasions.
Anyway, your first point is why I said that there was no 'tangible impact' of him doing well into his 40s; I've used this term a fair few times and what I mean by this is that an event occurring has a genuine positive or negative effect on that competitor's chance of achieving Kanzenseiha, an example being Kongu's Final Stage kerfuffle in 24 as he had a serious chance of actually winning it all otherwise. In Hioki's case, there's arguably no tangible impact of him reaching Stages 2 and 3 again in the next few years because we know he's 95% going to continue choking on the Cliffhanger, or 5% may clear it once but go out on the Vertical Limit, with both obstacles due for an even more grueling refresh.
In fact, out of all those mentioned here, I wouldn't say any competitor's early fails have caused them to miss out on a potential Kanzenseiha, the exception being Ryo who I'm sure could've probably done it in 31, but I defo think he's missed his window as no way could the less interested, less consistent, and more out of shape Ryo have a real shot on the current Final Stage, which again is due for an even harder refresh.
In terms of the others, Kanno's Final Stage attempt wasn't a near enough miss for me to think he would've won in 24 (or the even harder 31 for that matter), Shunsuke hasn't displayed whatsoever that he's capable of clearing Stage 3 again, Darvish doesn't even deserve to be acknowledged r/e this topic, and Tomo's Final Stage attempt was rubbish and his subsequent Stage 3 attempts haven't been particularly convincing that he's a genuine candidate for Total Victory, in spite of being branded as Mr #99 (it's even in his Instagram name; me thinks that's due for a change sometime soon). Obvs none of them have a shot now, hence the creation of this thread....
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Post by PizzaKing57 on Feb 8, 2021 16:01:38 GMT -5
Are you also really that much sure Kanno has no real shot of clearing the 1st Stage now because I mean, it's still possible for it to happen as he is still 35 and with about enough Warped Wall training, I think he could at least reach the 2nd Stage again but no further, due to the tremendous redesign featuring a new obstacle I hate.
Also, the only reason why I like Ryo more than Hioki is because whenever he reaches the 3rd Stage, he is more than capable of clearing, as he has always beaten the Cliffhanger whereas Hioki's never even cleared it once, which is why there's no point of watching him now in the 3rd Stage.
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