Takeda's 3rd stage curse

[BigT]

After watching ChiBi's video (massive credit for the effort) I think this deserves a separate thread.

Do you think there is a critical point for Takeda when it comes to not reaching final stage?

I feel like it is either Sasuke 8, 9, 11 or 12. At that point he was still an aspiring competitor but it seems that his confidence was eroded. It is actually exactly this clip where we first see him so...broken. The same can be said about 11 and 12 (and with a shoulder injury that changed his career).

So, what are your thoughts?

[tns8597]

I'm not so sure about this. He was still going strong up until his last Third Stage attempt in SASUKE 24.

In 23, I'm fairly confident he would've cleared the Third Stage on his 12th attempt had he not made that physical error by putting his leg too far forward on the Spider Flip which hence prevented him from grabbing the ledge. It's not like Shingo where there was a clear pivotal moment (SASUKE 7) at which his chances of clearing Stage 3 started to seem further and further from reality. Takeda's physical capability never declined, it actually increased; he was able to clear the Shin-Cliffhanger 3 for 3 despite failing the easier variant in past competitions. I just think it was a combination of his shoulder which really seemed to determine his performance on the day (e.g. passing the Cliffhanger in 12, failing it in 13 and 14, passing it in 15, failing in 16 etc.) regardless of how much he trained. Also, the mounting pressure from a longer and longer streak of Stage 3 fails (same for Yamada except with Stage 1). I'm certain the reason Takeda failed the Pipe Slider jump in 17 was because this was his 7th consecutive Third Stage appearance and his 10th overall yet he'd failed in every case, and it was a rare moment that he'd made it that far. He knew that the entire fate of his SASUKE career rested on that one jump because the Final Stage plays to his advantages. That thought must've got in his head and distracted him from the actual jump, hence why it wasn't even close.

It's hard to say what his best shot at clearing Stage 3 was. SASUKE 8, 12, and 17 of course because that's objectively the furthest he got but for me SASUKE 23 because the Gliding Ring was much easier than the Pipe Slider, because it doesn't swing back (which is often what caused Takeda to fail the latter) and it allows you to use your momentum. That darn Spider Flip jump .....

[ChiBiJKT48]

Ah, thank you. At least I'm not gonna having someone steal my effort again with watermark on the video.

That is for me is the turning point *hence why I spent time subtitling that*. The second one is SASUKE 12, but that was due to the injury. The third one is SASUKE 17 *next from Takeda that I gonna put subtitle in, but don't know when since I had other more important runs/moments to be translated first*, where he get to Third Stage for seventh consecutive time, yet still can't make it to Final Stage. I believe it is one of the reason he retire himself after the tournament, only for his kids to be mad at him and 'forcing' him to go back competing *hence the reason Takeda miss the race and didn't get number*.

[tns8597]

I'd honestly go as far as to say SASUKE 24 was his last shot at Total Victory (and judging by his results, it was). I would've agreed with you both if he'd made Stage 3 a couple of times in the Shin era but gone out early each time, but no, he made it DEEP into the stage during every attempt. As I said before, he had a real shot at reaching the final in 23, and probably 24 also had he just had an edge more stamina to make it up the first wall.

I think 24 was his last true chance for three reasons:
- SASUKE 25 onwards saw a huge bump in Stage 3 difficulty beyond what I think Takeda could've achieved; there's no way his shoulder would've coped with the Ultimate Cliffhanger.
- He was 34 during his last attempt, and given his history of injuries that are likely to get exacerbated as he aged it was definitely a 'now or never' moment in the late Shin-Sasuke era.
- He went on hiatus for a good 3 years almost where he didn't train for SASUKE, or at least to the degree he was before. When he came back, the course was refreshed and consisted almost entirely of obstacles he'd never seen before, by which point he was too out of the loop and perhaps too aged down to catch up, unlike when he was in his hay day.

The Takeda we've seen since SASUKE 28 really never struck me as the kind of competitor we could see in Stage 3 again; he's just not the threat he once was, age aside.

[wolf4537]

Sept 12, 2020 16:41:15 GMT -5 tns8597 said:

I'm not so sure about this. He was still going strong up until his last Third Stage attempt in SASUKE 24.

In 23, I'm fairly confident he would've cleared the Third Stage on his 12th attempt had he not made that physical error by putting his leg too far forward on the Spider Flip which hence prevented him from grabbing the ledge. It's not like Shingo where there was a clear pivotal moment (SASUKE 7) at which his chances of clearing Stage 3 started to seem further and further from reality. Takeda's physical capability never declined, it actually increased; he was able to clear the Shin-Cliffhanger 3 for 3 despite failing the easier variant in past competitions. I just think it was a combination of his shoulder which really seemed to determine his performance on the day (e.g. passing the Cliffhanger in 12, failing it in 13 and 14, passing it in 15, failing in 16 etc.) regardless of how much he trained. Also, the mounting pressure from a longer and longer streak of Stage 3 fails (same for Yamada except with Stage 1). I'm certain the reason Takeda failed the Pipe Slider jump in 17 was because this was his 7th consecutive Third Stage appearance and his 10th overall yet he'd failed in every case, and it was a rare moment that he'd made it that far. He knew that the entire fate of his SASUKE career rested on that one jump because the Final Stage plays to his advantages. That thought must've got in his head and distracted him from the actual jump, hence why it wasn't even close.

It's hard to say what his best shot at clearing Stage 3 was. SASUKE 8, 12, and 17 of course because that's objectively the furthest he got but for me SASUKE 23 because the Gliding Ring was much easier than the Pipe Slider, because it doesn't swing back (which is often what caused Takeda to fail the latter) and it allows you to use your momentum. That darn Spider Flip jump .....

I'll never forget how much everyone in the live chat on here was screaming for him to make it to the jumping ledge on the spider flip in Sasuke 24. It was truly heartbreaking to watch him fall since he's never been anywhere near that close to the final stage since then.

[GlobalNinjaFan]

Sasuke 23 and 24 were both his biggest and last chances.

He definitely could've cleared in either tournament, though was likely in better physical shape in 23. Either way, the Gliding Ring was a really easy final obstacle, so if he had just pushed through the Spider Flip, he likely would've cleared.