Which challenger is better?

[PizzaKing57]

Since a couple of you said that Keitaro is an overrated challenger, the reason why I've decided to make this poll is to see which challenger you prefer as to me, they are both identical and have been struggling a lot with the 2nd stage. So far Darvish managed to clear once in 36 but didn't get very far in Stage 3, whereas Keitaro was also close to making it but timed out at the final wall.

My opinion is that I am choosing Keitaro because he is a non-celeb, is less annoying and has more potential to get far into Stage 3, as he's been practising on all the replica obstacles and that gives him a good chance to reach the Final Stage. On the other hand, Darvish gets too much screen-time and doesn't deserve it as well as high numbers, as he hasn't made it deep into the 3rd Stage yet. Sure, he also practises hard on the obstacles but he is very poor at the Vertical Limit and if he made it back, then I would say he'd fall on the Cliffhanger Dimension.

If any of you SASUKE fans have your own opinions about these challengers, then please drop them down below as I would love to hear about them.

[tns8597]

I’m going with Keitaro as well.

Partially the reason being is that I’d rather pick a competitor who still has a long time to show his thus far unrealised potential, that we know equates to a Stage 3 clear and potential Stage 4 run, than someone like Darvish who’s performance in 36 was arguably a better reflection of his maximum potential, especially given that he’s approaching 40 now.

Keitaro by comparison isn’t even 30. He has 5-10 years to prove himself and apart from Sasuke 37 where the Warped Wall weirdly took out a lot of other top fompetitors, he’s been on an upwards trend towards reaching Stage 3, where we know he’ll do well as he’s been training for Sasuke for the best part of 15 or so years. Darvish on the other hand has proven through training that there’s almost no chance he’ll clear the Cliffhanger, if he even gets that far again. I won’t say he got lucky in 36 because he does train for Sasuke, but he’s approaching the limits of his ability. Keitaro on the other hand hasn’t realised his in competition, which is a shame as we know if he reaches Stage 3, he’s a serious threat.

There is also the factor that you mentioned that Darvish is generally just very annoying in personality and doesn’t deserve the screen time he gets, so even if he is an objectively stronger competitor (which he isn’t imo), I’d still pick Keitaro.

[Kane-Not-Kosugi]

Gotta go with Darvish here, sorry.

1. The fact that he's a celebrity should not matter on this topic. The fact is that he's a consistent competitor, simple as that. He clearly cares about the show and trains for it more than others, and is creeping up on 40. It's honestly quite impressive. Does he get more screentime than necessary? Yes, but that doesn't mean he's a bad competitor lol.

2. Keitaro chokes WAAAAAAY more. Is he stronger than Darvish? Yes. But that doesn't matter if Keitaro can't get himself to the point where he can use his strength (Stage 3). You know who did? Darvish. Yes, Darvish had a bad run of Stage 1 fails beforehand, but once it clicked the only things that contributed to his Stage 1 fails were bad weather.

This isn't to say Darvish is stronger, because as a climber, that honor goes to Keitaro. However, because of his training and passion, Darvish has put in the work to become slightly, VERY slightly more consistent in Sasuke and overall a little better than Keitaro.

Let's put it this way, if I had to bet on who'd make it to Stage 3 first between these 2, I'd pick Darvish.

[PizzaKing57]

I wonder how Darvish could've possibly failed the Dragon Glider last time when beating it two tournaments before. Somebody on YouTube thinks that the fog was blocking his vision of the second bar, where he was unable to see it properly and miss it.

I hope this failure bumps him down to a number like #95 and no higher than that in the next tournament, as it wouldn't be good to put him in really high numbers, unless he performs well like Kawaguchi, Sato, Hioki etc.

I think he could possibly make it back to Stage 3, but as he is turning 40 this year, it will be more difficult to better his performance and keep making it far, so for me I definitely can only see him making it to the 3rd Stage about twice more, where he will 80% fail on the Cliffhanger if he even gets there.

[tns8597]

It all really just depends on whether you value past performance or potential performance. Both have reached Stage 2 on four occasions but Darvish cleared it once, then again Darvish has failed the First Stage 5 times vs. only twice for Keitaro, so I'd say they're about even, especially given that Darvish basically only made it one obstacle further than Keitaro in SASUKE 36, and his performance definitely gave the 'weakest link' vibe in Stage 3. So in terms of past performances, I'd say they're about even, but obvs some people will go with Darvish here as he has made it further despite training for a much shorter time.

In terms of potential, we know that Keitaro blows this one out of the water. Darvish won't make it past the Cliffhanger for squat, that is if he ever makes it to Stage 3 again, which is much more of an 'if' given his age; he'd only be the third person to reach Stage 3 in their 40s, for reference. Keitaro is only 29 so he has far more time to show his true potential.

With regards to number, I also hope they knock him down a few pegs, but it's unlikely. Hiromichi Sato failed Stage 1 in SASUKE 23 yet still got #97 in the next tournament, despite having only passed Stage 1 once out of like 5 times. I'd honestly be surprised if they gave him a number lower than #95. Maybe with Tomo failing Stage 1, they'll give him #99... how awesome would that be!!!!!

[PizzaKing57]

Darvish isn't Hiromichi though and his celebrity status isn't associated with TBS, so I definitely do not see him getting #99 in the next tournament but if he does, I'll be furious as that position should only be awarded to the challenger that the producers feel has a chance of making it to the Final Stage and that's either Yuuji, Rene etc.

[tns8597]

You never know at this point.

His numbers were fairly acceptable until Sasuke 35 where he suddenly got #96 even though he was one of like 15 competitors to fail Stage 2. Beforehand he got similar numbers to like ABC-Z etc like mid to high 80s

[PizzaKing57]

Did you have any number predictions from previous tournaments that Darvish should have got, like Kawaguchi?

Also, when I first discovered Darvish on SASUKE in 2013, I was in total shock when I saw a challenger standing on the course, with facepaint on as that was a rare sighting. I had a feeling that in 30, he was going to return which he did and now as the years were passing by, he now aimed to be one of the best celebrities to perform well on this show.

[tns8597]

Hmmm well up to 34 I think they were all fair enough. #91 was a bit high in 32 but he did make the Second Stage and it’s honestly better than the recent numbers he’s been getting

In 35 he definitely didn’t deserve 96, given that Yuuji got 95 and Suzuki who made it to Stage 3 in the previous tournament got 94. I’d say maybe 90?

36: again he didn’t deserve 98 whatsoever. I’d say 91-92 given that he did better than last time and was also only one of 8 to clear in the previous tournament.

37: probably around the same as in 36, given that he came 9th overall.

I know it’s a bit menial saying he should’ve got 10 numbers lower than he has been getting, but those 10 numbers represent a massive difference. High 80s is usually like ‘yeah, you’re strong, but you’re no real threat to achieve total victory’ whereas 96-98 which is what he’s been getting recently is like ‘one of the most serious threats to victory this era’ like Yamamoto and Takeda got back in the day. And I’m sorry but he just isn’t any real threat, never was and never will be.

[Sasuke Mania]

Currently, I'd have to go with the (highly, it seems) unpopular opinion.
Maybe they show him a little too much. Maybe he didn't do so well in Stage 3. Maybe Keitaro hasn't had really a chance to prove himself. Heck, maybe Darvish gets higher numbers. And with all of these arguments, I'd agree. But I just don't really understand the universal hate around Darvish. He's SUPER dedicated and invested into the show (I think I checked his blog once, and apparently he's been watching since at least 24), you can't exactly say the same for a lot of celebrity competitors. He trains for the show as much as the others, and actively trains WITH a lot of the top competitors. I don't see him as "just a celebrity", and I don't think we should either. Sasuke's called the "Olympics of Nameless Athletes" for a reason, anyone, regardless of background or occupation, can do just as well as the others.
Again, I have no doubt that Keitaro can do well. I mean, if I had to be honest, as long as he can clear Stage 2, he can go far, absolutely he could go far. But for now, I think I'd have to go with Darvish.

[Eclipse]

I'm on team Darvish.

But I want to note a misconception that has come up many times in this thread:

Numbers do not directly indicate success or skill level

...and never really have. People who do well tend to get higher numbers, but this is for other reasons.

Numbers in the modern SASUKE exist to generate advertising revenue. When a casual fan tunes in they want to see popular athlete, celebrities and people who have done well in the past they might recognize. By backloading the program with *popularity* over solely skill, more casual / channel flipping viewers will stay for longer within each stage as they need to wait longer to see their favorites, therefore generating more ad revenue. Most Japanese shows do this, it's down to a science that backloading the hot competitors directly leads to more income. A lot of good Sasuke competitors get high numbers because they are very popular, and yeah 100 is usually the reigning best, but any celebrity who makes a decent name for themselves will get high numbers. Production has no rule or obligation stating that competitors are to be ordered by skill.

In that context, I think it is fair to assess Darvish in the high 90s. He's in a massive band and one of the more distinctly familiar faces in Japanese advertising, people love him. On top of that, he is improving consistently and most Sasuke fans now want to see him too. Successful celebrities are more financially powerful than successful non-celebrities, and so I personally believe that Darvish being as high as 99 makes sense.

Koji Saikawa? Made Stage 2 last time and just landed a lead role on Kamen Rider. Don't be surprised if he get's 80s or even higher.

Tsukada Ryoichi? Got to the Salmon Ladder and has been 80s ever since. He's definitely not one of the top 20 Athletes on Sasuke but he is definitely one of the top 20 most marketable faces on Sasuke.

[tns8597]

If the above comment is entirely true, then why do they digest runs of competitors in the mid to high 90s sometimes? If numbers are purely to drive viewings and ratings then I’m sure viewers wouldn’t be pleased to watch for 1-2 hours waiting for their favourite high profile competitor wearing 95-96 only to find that he or she has been digested. By that regard, the high numbers would be dominated by celebrities and All-Stars while competitors like Jun Sato who are strong but frequently ignored would be given a lower number/a back seat, but this isn’t the case.

Sure, it’s not black and white. Numbers are organised through a mix of ranking competitors by past performances and likelihood of achieving total victory, as well as their celebrity status, and has been for a while.

From the perspective of die hard fans however, and maybe even competitors themselves (I know the competitors take the numbering system very seriously), it is almost a slap in the face seeing a competitor who, while more famous for other reasons, has achieved nowhere near what you have or contributed what you have to the show and training, be given a higher number than you. Darvish getting a higher number than Yuuji for instance isn’t something to be taken lightly, no matter what the perceived implications of numbers suggest.

I suppose I’m ignoring the fact that most viewers aren’t die hard fans and most aren’t fully aware about the profiles of all the well known competitors, but this is why Sasuke isn’t what it used to be. It’s catering more to the masses than those who’ve been there for years on end (I’ve been watching Sasuke for 10 years now, so obviously I’m a bit biased, but I feel like many others on this forum also are).

And no, while I appreciate giving Darvish a number in the high 80s and even low to mid 90s, he certainly does not deserve 99 or 100, because those are reserved for breakout performances/second most likely to achieve victory, and the reigning champion, respectively. And that’s the way it should stay.

[Eclipse]

Sept 10, 2020 14:11:31 GMT -5 tns8597 said:

If the above comment is entirely true, then why do they digest runs of competitors in the mid to high 90s sometimes? If numbers are purely to drive viewings and ratings then I’m sure viewers wouldn’t be pleased to watch for 1-2 hours waiting for their favourite high profile competitor wearing 95-96 only to find that he or she has been digested. By that regard, the high numbers would be dominated by celebrities and All-Stars while competitors like Jun Sato who are strong but frequently ignored would be given a lower number/a back seat, but this isn’t the case.

Sure, it’s not black and white. Numbers are organised through a mix of ranking competitors by past performances and likelihood of achieving total victory, as well as their celebrity status, and has been for a while.

From the perspective of die hard fans however, and maybe even competitors themselves (I know the competitors take the numbering system very seriously), it is almost a slap in the face seeing a competitor who, while more famous for other reasons, has achieved nowhere near what you have or contributed what you have to the show and training, be given a higher number than you. Darvish getting a higher number than Yuuji for instance isn’t something to be taken lightly, no matter what the perceived implications of numbers suggest.

I suppose I’m ignoring the fact that most viewers aren’t die hard fans and most aren’t fully aware about the profiles of all the well known competitors, but this is why Sasuke isn’t what it used to be. It’s catering more to the masses than those who’ve been there for years on end (I’ve been watching Sasuke for 10 years now, so obviously I’m a bit biased, but I feel like many others on this forum also are).

And no, while I appreciate giving Darvish a number in the high 80s and even low to mid 90s, he certainly does not deserve 99 or 100, because those are reserved for breakout performances/second most likely to achieve victory, and the reigning champion, respectively. And that’s the way it should stay.

This is a very good point to bring up. Unlike ANW where they can re-order runs as they see fit, Sasuke decides numbers beforehand as best they can. Once they've taped they need to finalize who gets shown because Sasuke has a fairly limited length compared to if they showed everyone. So if someone is underwhelming or maybe other people just had more exciting runs they may choose to digest them after filming.

So you're right, it's definitely a mix of them. I may have sounded like it's only revenue but in reality as you said, it can be a mix of the two.

In the rest of your point absolutely. I know tons of fans would love to see numbers be direct skill representations. With what you said though, I think that even old Sasuke did this more than many people think.

[tns8597]

Maybe I’m being nostalgic and glorifying the old days.

I suppose you’re right in the sense that Yamada was effectively a Sasuke celebrity, and hence kept getting 99 and even 100 even when his prime had long past and he’d entered his infamous First Stage failure streak. He didn’t deserve it based on merit yet he kept getting the high numbers due to his almost ‘celebrity’ like ‘Mr Sasuke’ status.

[PizzaKing57]

I honestly think that the reason as to why Yamada kept getting high numbers after 14 was because the producers really thought that tournament after tournament, he would still be able to better his performance and clear the 1st Stage, but after declining in 21, it was finally a good thing that he dropped down to the low 70s and 80s but after his comeback, he was still given 90s.

But I'm finally glad that after 30, he was given extremely low numbers in the 30s and even though his Black Tigers have cleared the 1st Stage, they've never been higher than 62 and it would actually be super cool, if they were given numbers in the high 60s or low 70s for the next tournament, as they produced their best attempts by both making it all the way to the Cliffhanger in the 3rd Stage.

[tns8597]

Same with Shingo. He kept being given 97-98 even though his performance was consistently declining, until Shin-SASUKE where he started failing Stage 1 in consecutive tournaments so they knocked him down to the 80s in some cases. Same with Akiyama also, albeit a bit earlier on.

Yamada I think they only kept giving 100 in the early days because he was basically the face of the show as 'Mr SASUKE', bar maybe Kane. He wasn't that consistent and had a penchant for making really stupid errors on Stage 2, like the tape thing in SASUKE 9, the infamous disqualification in SASUKE 12, his Pipe Slider fail in SASUKE 6, and so on. He wasn't necessarily the most likely competitor to achieve Total Victory; I personally think Shingo or Kane were more likely candidates, but he was definitely the person who carried forward Sasuke in the early days, hence his nickname and getting the number 100 consistently.

By the time he came back though, several competitors had surpassed his skill and achievements (e.g. Nagano, Shiratori, Takeda even to an extent) so I don't think they gave him 99 because they expected him to be a serious threat to Kanzen, especially given the number of times he failed Stage 2 as well as the fact that he was approaching 40 upon his return. It was more due to his status as Mr SASUKE and more specifically his unhealthy obsession with the show.

I'd honestly prefer the Black Tigers (and Hioki) to get the numbers they deserve, like the low 90s, but then they do need someone to have lower numbers not to backlog all the potential clears towards the end of Stage 1. Especially the first guy put on a killer debut performance, the second one (Isa) wasn't as comfortable on the course, also he failed the Rolling Hill in his first attempt.