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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Sept 4, 2018 15:41:41 GMT -5
TS Gordon trying to reach Hurricane status as it prepares to make landfall in Mobile,AL.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Sept 4, 2018 21:48:37 GMT -5
We're so close to landfall with TS Gordon. Hurricane Hunters just found the pressure below 1000 finally so at the very last min it's ramping up. Not to mention how much more orginized it looks now than this morning, but I dont think it'll hit as a hurricane. This became weaker than thought. Still, flooding & tornados are a huge concern as it races now thru the midwest!
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Sept 4, 2018 22:10:09 GMT -5
As TS makes landfall JUST under Hurricane status, Florence has rapidly intensified to a Cat 2 Hurricane that could easily become our first Major Hurricane of the season. Not gonna update on this storm much until the track is more definite as the models are still all over the place. However, EURO is showing that it could curve out to sea now. That's a good sign for the east coast considering how fast this storm is ramping up. GFS shows a track along the east coast. CMC shows a curve. We'll know an answer by end week.
In other news, Invest 97 looks like it could be named this week and this is one to watch due to how low the system is in the Atlantic. And the NHC has a 20% chance of another system coming off of Africa soon. Looks like the Atlantic really picked up for peak season!!
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Sept 5, 2018 10:50:42 GMT -5
Dispute dry air, dust, and sheer, Florence becomes a Major Hurricane at 120mph. Less than 10 days out, about 85% of models show landfall over by SC.
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arsenette
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Post by arsenette on Sept 5, 2018 11:48:25 GMT -5
Dispute dry air, dust, and sheer, Florence becomes a Major Hurricane at 120mph. Less than 10 days out, about 85% of models show landfall over by SC. Wait untit it's a lot closer.... it's only a couple of us reading. If you continue to jam it with 3-4 posts of potential forecasts no one is going to follow it when it's important.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Sept 8, 2018 15:00:27 GMT -5
Path for Florence to miss the East Coast has closed off. At this point, all models and forecasters are seeing a landfall on the East Coast. The question now is, where on the East Coast and how strong. {Spaghetti Models for Florence} {More models of Florence} NC & SC have also issued States of Emergency bracing for landfall. Timing looks like Thur/Fri. {Map for SOE} And models are predicting a Cat 4 landfall, however that can change of course. {Strength graph}
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Post by arsenette on Sept 8, 2018 22:00:13 GMT -5
Yeah I'm hoping it changes but it's something to look at. My family in Puerto Rico is paying attention to Isaac.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Sept 9, 2018 9:51:31 GMT -5
Yeah I'm hoping it changes but it's something to look at. My family in Puerto Rico is paying attention to Isaac. Alot of models are currently suggesting maybe a TS impact. Thankfully, far from the amount of damage from last year but still could reopen some issues. Theres some chance it could curve out to open waters but I cant see it happening. However, Florence was never supposed to impact anyone either lol.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Sept 9, 2018 10:03:06 GMT -5
You would think a Cat4 landfall would be the biggest worry on now Hurricane Florence, however models are suggesting a stall similar to last years Harvey. We saw this appear in some models days ago however as time has gone on it looks more likely, which would be deadly and cause even more damage on top of the Cat4 landfall on the East Coast.
UPDATE: Virgina declares state of emergency.
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Post by arsenette on Sept 9, 2018 19:04:06 GMT -5
You would think a Cat4 landfall would be the biggest worry on now Hurricane Florence, however models are suggesting a stall similar to last years Harvey. We saw this appear in some models days ago however as time has gone on it looks more likely, which would be deadly and cause even more damage on top of the Cat4 landfall on the East Coast. UPDATE: Virgina declares state of emergency. Yeah there are some crazy models out there and I'm terrified about the Harvey scenario. And yeah Issac is also expected to go 100 miles south and the storm is much much smaller so it should be minimal impact. All of those of course are around the same time as Florence so I suspect will be lost in the shuffle. There are 8 named storms out right now and more than half are expecting landfall around the same time.. so it's all of a sudden VERY busy. This week is going to suck.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Sept 9, 2018 21:20:05 GMT -5
You would think a Cat4 landfall would be the biggest worry on now Hurricane Florence, however models are suggesting a stall similar to last years Harvey. We saw this appear in some models days ago however as time has gone on it looks more likely, which would be deadly and cause even more damage on top of the Cat4 landfall on the East Coast. UPDATE: Virgina declares state of emergency. Yeah there are some crazy models out there and I'm terrified about the Harvey scenario. And yeah Issac is also expected to go 100 miles south and the storm is much much smaller so it should be minimal impact. All of those of course are around the same time as Florence so I suspect will be lost in the shuffle. There are 8 named storms out right now and more than half are expecting landfall around the same time.. so it's all of a sudden VERY busy. This week is going to suck. I'm seeing Issac die in all models, which would be good in the ene. However, most models including the NHC forecast now is saying Florence will stall. This is not good. I see this much worse than Harvey.
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Post by arsenette on Sept 9, 2018 21:31:43 GMT -5
I'm seeing Issac die in all models, which would be good in the ene. However, most models including the NHC forecast now is saying Florence will stall. This is not good. I see this much worse than Harvey. Yeah.. I inappropriately made a joke about the namesake.. but happy that Isaac is fizzling out and going away from Puerto Rico. As for Florence.. yeah I'm concerned about the rain. All of these also go up the coast and clobber me in the mid-Atlantic and it's POURING now so the ground is super saturated as it is.. some parts of Delaware are flooded and the hurricane is still almost a week away. As for the wind.. I'm old enough to vividly remember Category 4 Hugo and this is going into the same region.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Sept 9, 2018 21:41:11 GMT -5
I'm seeing Issac die in all models, which would be good in the ene. However, most models including the NHC forecast now is saying Florence will stall. This is not good. I see this much worse than Harvey. Yeah.. I inappropriately made a joke about the namesake.. but happy that Isaac is fizzling out and going away from Puerto Rico. As for Florence.. yeah I'm concerned about the rain. All of these also go up the coast and clobber me in the mid-Atlantic and it's POURING now so the ground is super saturated as it is.. some parts of Delaware are flooded and the hurricane is still almost a week away. As for the wind.. I'm old enough to vividly remember Category 4 Hugo and this is going into the same region. Weve had major flooding over the weekend from left over TD and this on top of it in KY will be rough too. Very thankful my area doesnt normally flood since they fixed the drains.
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Post by arsenette on Sept 10, 2018 12:47:33 GMT -5
Weve had major flooding over the weekend from left over TD and this on top of it in KY will be rough too. Very thankful my area doesnt normally flood since they fixed the drains. My new house has a brand new dewatering system and even though we've had flooding rains for the past 2 days we haven't had water in our basement.. that said.. this sucker will come up the coast in some form or fashion so I'm really mindful of the track. And like you I'm not in a flood prone area but damn it will be a lot of water.. On the windfront though.. this bastard hasn't hit the gulf stream yet and is now a Category 4 NOW. Most forecasters now believe it will be a Cat 5 or damn close to it at landfall. It was 75 mph just a few hours ago..
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Sept 11, 2018 10:25:58 GMT -5
Hurricane watches have finally been posted. Took long enough. Any rate, Florence has gotten weaker as it's redoing it's eye. This in theory will make the storm bigger in size and it should regain strength once the eye forms again.
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Post by arsenette on Sept 11, 2018 15:26:19 GMT -5
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Sept 11, 2018 20:32:45 GMT -5
8pm update has Florence back at 140mph. Eye wall looks really healthy again as it turns toward the US.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Sept 13, 2018 0:18:16 GMT -5
Lots to talk about as the 0z models run tonight. Let's start with the weakening of Florence. On one hand, this may seem like a miracle. But keep in mind, this storm is HUGE and expected to stall. The only saving grace of this is that the winds will not be as strong as originally thought. With that said, let's look at everything as we are less than 48 hours till landfall. Florence is now a Cat 2 Hurricane with wind speeds of 110mph. It has a good amount of hot water to still travel over but the sheer and dry air keeps killing it. You can see that the eyewall is starting to crumble. But this is still a HUGE storm. And the affects will be felt widespread. {Satellite} Looking at landfall, looks like around Friday night would be a good bet. From there it will travel the east coast going south before making a northwest turn to Kentucky (yay me), however this path will be slow. {Path} From what I'm gathering from local weather guys, the news is majorly down playing this due to the major weakening Florence is experiencing. I want to make note, this does NOT mean the damage will be less. The whole concern from the beginning has been flooding due to the stall. Of course, Cat 2 or 1 strength in winds is way better but it is still very damaging. ONTO THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC! We currently have 4 named storms in the Atlantic, one of course being Florence. There is a possibility of having a 5th but it's running out of time before reaching Texas/Mexico in the Gulf (Invest 95). {Satellite} Looking towards Tropical Storm Isaac, some models suggest strengthening back to a Hurricane at some point but that is further down the road. There is a window of opportunity for Isaac to curve up the East Coast, but as time goes on that is very unlikely. {Spaghetti Model + Satellite} Sub-Tropical Storm Joyce is way out there in the middle of the Atlantic and really I don't see it impacting anything. Nor do models suggest it even reaching as a Hurricane. {Path} Hurricane Helene is expected to make a NorthEast turn in the Atlantic. It will affect Europe at some point, but before that it begins to weaken starting today. {Path} And last we have a spot to watch in the Atlantic thats around the East Coast. As of now, it doesn't seem to be a worry much at all. 20% chance of forming in the next 5 days. {Tropics Map}
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Post by arsenette on Sept 13, 2018 15:09:07 GMT -5
A bit disturbed by the reports that people came back to the Carolina's because "Florence has weakened" and "only a 2" when the flood potential went up up astronomically. The next few days are going to suck.
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Post by arsenette on Sept 13, 2018 15:33:37 GMT -5
I know this is going back to last year's hurricane season, but a few days ago there was a formal announcement by the Puerto Rican government regarding the death toll from Hurricane Maria. I haven't kept up with the news surrounding it as much as one could imagine and thus don't want to comment too much on it, but in any case this news is devastating. abcnews.go.com/US/death-toll-hurricane-maria-3000-puerto-rico-study/story?id=57179291I'm fine with this topic being discussed here once again, as long as it doesn't become political. Yep.. only took them a year to produce a number half of what it actually was. It's almost impossible to not get political given the source of the "official" number (after several high profile independent investigations from several countries). I've been screaming about the incompetency of the Rosello government for years now (there's a dynasty over there going back 30 years) and for the first time the world gets to finally see wtf I've been screaming about. Worse.. he's still in power. NOTHING has changed. The world moved on a few days after the storm to the next news cycle. Okay.. off my soap box. This week was the discovery from the media of tons of relief supplies rotting in some field out in Ceiba (that is an inland mountainous town that's next to my aunt's house where I lived). I was not surprised because the general response locally is that if it didn't happen in the Capital it didn't exist. The other news was that the number of deaths is over the past year (that was a hot topic between my father and myself. I called my family over there and they agreed with my Dad that the number included homicides (which were numerous) and deaths attributed to abandonment that the Local government did. 1 million Puerto Ricans have fled the island from last year because of these conditions. Prices of everything have gone up (all necessities and utilities and they instituted an import tax even on things they produce, sales tax is now double digits, 3/4 of the schools closed, same with hospitals and the price of gas with the institution of new taxes is almost double the mainland now). My cousin (the one I did a video on) said to this day not a single local official has come back to her town. She lives in the 4th largest town on the island. The area of impact (South East Puerto Rico) is literally abandoned. Debris is still on the streets and not a single business reopened. So it infuriates all of us that the media is putting the blame squarely on Trump. We didn't vote for him. Rosello is getting off scot-free and hailed as a hero. It was HIS mismanagement that caused the deaths of upwards to 4000 people and counting. 1/3 of the island's population fled the island because they were starving to death. I'm so angry right now I can't even see straight.
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