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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Aug 25, 2018 19:11:03 GMT -5
All watches and warnings canceled as it heads to open water. Looks like it'll become a depression then gain strength again to a TS while over open water.
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arsenette
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Post by arsenette on Aug 25, 2018 19:25:44 GMT -5
That's a relief. Still raining a lot in some places but it's good that it's moving away. In the meantime though.. the amount of rain is staggering.
This is what it looks like where it is now. The cloud cover is still huge so while it's not "windy" in terms of storm intensity the rain will continue for a few more days. Some places got 3 feet of rain.. FEET of rain.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Aug 25, 2018 20:18:57 GMT -5
Below, look at the system off of Africa. That currently isn't going to developed however it could as it gets closer to the Gulf. So far however, not looking promising on any forecast models. In the coming weeks though as the Atlantic warms up more, we are def looking at some future storms.
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arsenette
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Post by arsenette on Aug 26, 2018 12:43:15 GMT -5
I do hope it stays this quiet in the Atlantic..
Anyway the latest from Hawaii
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Aug 27, 2018 16:44:10 GMT -5
EURO is pointing towards three possible storms next Monday. There is a good chance for at least one to gain strength.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Aug 28, 2018 10:31:34 GMT -5
EURO is currently showing a Cane hitting around the Louisiana & Mississippi coast. Currently the wave that just came off if Africa has a 20% chance of forming over the next 5 days (and models are looking it at happening). We are over a week out still and nothing has formed quite yet so keep that in mind.
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Post by yamfriend on Aug 30, 2018 10:34:39 GMT -5
I know this is going back to last year's hurricane season, but a few days ago there was a formal announcement by the Puerto Rican government regarding the death toll from Hurricane Maria. I haven't kept up with the news surrounding it as much as one could imagine and thus don't want to comment too much on it, but in any case this news is devastating. abcnews.go.com/US/death-toll-hurricane-maria-3000-puerto-rico-study/story?id=57179291I'm fine with this topic being discussed here once again, as long as it doesn't become political.
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arsenette
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Post by arsenette on Aug 30, 2018 10:39:28 GMT -5
I know this is going back to last year's hurricane season, but a few days ago there was a formal announcement by the Puerto Rican government regarding the death toll from Hurricane Maria. I haven't kept up with the news surrounding it as much as one could imagine and thus don't want to comment too much on it, but in any case this news is devastating. abcnews.go.com/US/death-toll-hurricane-maria-3000-puerto-rico-study/story?id=57179291I'm fine with this topic being discussed here once again, as long as it doesn't become political. Yep.. only took them a year to produce a number half of what it actually was. It's almost impossible to not get political given the source of the "official" number (after several high profile independent investigations from several countries). I've been screaming about the incompetency of the Rosello government for years now (there's a dynasty over there going back 30 years) and for the first time the world gets to finally see wtf I've been screaming about. Worse.. he's still in power. NOTHING has changed. The world moved on a few days after the storm to the next news cycle. Okay.. off my soap box.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Aug 30, 2018 15:02:23 GMT -5
PC #6 has formed off the coast of Africa. It will strengthen to a Hurricane, however will curve off into the middle of the Atlantic.
Looking at a weak wave by Cuba that will pass through FL and into the Gulf, however NHC has it at a 10% chance as of current. Still will be a big rain maker regardless.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Aug 31, 2018 10:26:02 GMT -5
Early morning update still shows the wave by Cuba that's heading to the Gulf to have a 10% chance as its fighting strong sheer currently.
PTC6 off of Africa is making it's way across the Atlantic. There is talks about a high pressure that could block it from curbing, however unlikely still. Will keep a close eye on it until it finally curves.
Couple of strong waves making it's way across Africa right now too, one that looks like will head towards the US if it plays out like everyone is thinking.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Aug 31, 2018 15:53:38 GMT -5
TD6 has finally formed. Will be named soon once it reaches TS status.
No new changes in the rain make by Cuba.
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arsenette
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Post by arsenette on Aug 31, 2018 19:57:11 GMT -5
Probably best to update only when there is a system closer to land. Otherwise this will balloon to several pages with only 2 of us reading.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Sept 1, 2018 15:13:20 GMT -5
{Sept 4th Euro} As you can see, that storm by the Bahamas looks to form into something. The ONLY model currently showing nothing is the GFS, however everything else is looking at something forming once it hits the Gulf. Euro looks to have the storm hit around NO and curve over to Texas and stay there for a little while. {Sept 5th Euro} Even by Sept 11th, the storm is still in Texas. It looks like this may be the only model seeing this however everything has been following the EURO lately. And this storm WILL be a rain maker. {Sept 11th Euro} On Florence: There has been real concern that the storm will not curve as it has been weaker than originally thought. If this is the case, the east coast could look for some impact. However, everything still shows it missing.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Sept 2, 2018 15:14:29 GMT -5
I'm not liking this. The EURO show a US landfall from Florence on the East Coast. Most of the models are shifting from a North curve to heading east as well. I will say, we are 10 days out still however things have been hinting at this for days now. NHC also has PTC7 named and heading directly for NO. Looks like it could hit hurricane strength but most models say atm that it'll only be a TS. {Euro for Sept 12th} {CMC for Sept 12th}
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Sept 3, 2018 0:05:31 GMT -5
PTC7 will at min be a TS when it hits the US this week. It looks to make landfall by Tuesday night. Here's the tracking below:
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Sept 3, 2018 7:57:27 GMT -5
TS Gordon has formed. TS warnings have been issued including South FL and FL Keys.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Sept 3, 2018 15:58:43 GMT -5
Hurricane warnings just issued with the 5pm update. Possiblity of a Cat 2 when landfall as pressure quickly drops. Currently still a TS by SW FL.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Sept 4, 2018 4:55:09 GMT -5
Landfall day! TS Gordon looks very disorganized as the morning moves on. However, peak winds are at 65mph. I cant see this storm gaining any more strength unless the center gets more defined. The pressure hasn't dropped below 1000 yet, and all maps show it just a mess. Still, flooding is the main concern as we wait for landfall coming this afternoon.
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Post by arsenette on Sept 4, 2018 13:51:59 GMT -5
Meanwhile Japan was wrecked by a poorly forecasted Cat 1 that turned out to be a Cat 3 Typhoon (hurricane in the Pacific).
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Sept 4, 2018 14:49:28 GMT -5
Meanwhile Japan was wrecked by a poorly forecasted Cat 1 that turned out to be a Cat 3 Typhoon (hurricane in the Pacific). This year has been an absolute mess on forecasting
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