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Post by ArbuthnotBlob on Mar 27, 2018 6:38:50 GMT -5
Not actual ratings figures, but Inui seems to be implying the viewer figures were decent:
Trashlation:
Thanks to all of you, we sasuke2018 a good audience rate.
This can be held again next time. Thank you very much.
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Post by m4tt3r0x on Mar 27, 2018 12:57:22 GMT -5
And the Sasuke Story continues. Things are lookin good for this show. See ya all back for 36.
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arsenette
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Post by arsenette on Mar 27, 2018 13:45:32 GMT -5
He says that all the time btw.  Contract is probably up to the Olympics in Tokyo. After that we'll see. Esquire money has been spent. |
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Post by SasukeDoctor on Mar 28, 2018 6:01:38 GMT -5
He says that all the time btw. Contract is probably up to the Olympics in Tokyo. After that we'll see. Esquire money has been spent. Wouldn't it be influenced by the money from ANW and other spin offs? |
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arsenette
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Post by arsenette on Mar 28, 2018 6:10:01 GMT -5
He says that all the time btw. Contract is probably up to the Olympics in Tokyo. After that we'll see. Esquire money has been spent. Wouldn't it be influenced by the money from ANW and other spin offs? No. TBS pools that money for it's network. They don't reinvest in the show the same way other networks do worldwide. It's part of the reason why TBS is failing to begin with and why Sasuke always runs out of money. The success/failure of Sasuke in Japan is irrelevant to the spin offs and vice versa. The spin offs don't benefit/hurt by Sasuke Japan. Each is it's own entity. Just think of how much ANW has benefit/hurt by Japan's show. It's the same the other way around. They are completely different shows and all are paying TBS but each show is not financing each other. |
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nekomi3
Kawashima Takayuki
Posts: 357 
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Post by nekomi3 on Mar 28, 2018 6:57:51 GMT -5
Welp... we have to deal with a fact 40 is the number of SASUKE seasons...
The budget for SASUKE won’t be filled like pre-28 era again. I understand why 2nd Stage never got changed, I know Inui is trying to make an interesting but cheap way to get rating... what I want to say is thank you to him tho... He did his best believe me
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Post by Mk20SSR on Mar 28, 2018 8:14:51 GMT -5
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Post by m4tt3r0x on Mar 28, 2018 8:57:01 GMT -5
1.0% boost over 33 and 34. Anybody know when we can get the hour by hour viewership? 35 was clearly a step in the right direction
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Post by zdude69closedrofl on Mar 28, 2018 9:10:19 GMT -5
Welp... we have to deal with a fact 40 is the number of SASUKE seasons... The budget for SASUKE won’t be filled like pre-28 era again. I understand why 2nd Stage never got changed, I know Inui is trying to make an interesting but cheap way to get rating... what I want to say is thank you to him tho... He did his best believe me Wait... so the show is officially only fulfilling 40 seasons? |
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Post by TCM on Mar 28, 2018 9:35:44 GMT -5
Welp... we have to deal with a fact 40 is the number of SASUKE seasons... The budget for SASUKE won’t be filled like pre-28 era again. I understand why 2nd Stage never got changed, I know Inui is trying to make an interesting but cheap way to get rating... what I want to say is thank you to him tho... He did his best believe me Wait... so the show is officially only fulfilling 40 seasons? SASUKE is definitely not booked that far in advance. It getting to 2020 would be a minor miracle. |
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Post by zdude69closedrofl on Mar 28, 2018 10:03:59 GMT -5
Wait... so the show is officially only fulfilling 40 seasons? SASUKE is definitely not booked that far in advance. It getting to 2020 would be a minor miracle. I had a feeling... I think 40 is a proper stopping point, however. |
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Post by m4tt3r0x on Mar 28, 2018 10:05:09 GMT -5
Wait... so the show is officially only fulfilling 40 seasons? SASUKE is definitely not booked that far in advance. It getting to 2020 would be a minor miracle. You really think it's that unlikely? I don't know why they returned to the 2 tournaments in 1 year route if they're scared of imminent cancellation. If worse comes to worse couldn't they survive on a 1 tournament/year system again? That'd be 36 and 37 right before the 2020 Tokyo olympics. I don't even see them returning to 1 a year though, and at this rate I expect we'll see up to 38 or even 39 if all goes about the same or a little better from here on out. I'd say what happens after 2020 will be the truer minor miracle requirement, but I'm not exactly an expert on these things. Of course all of this is probably based on one Sasuke tournament not completely tanking. The future is too far out for us to know I guess |
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Post by TCM on Mar 28, 2018 10:27:32 GMT -5
SASUKE is definitely not booked that far in advance. It getting to 2020 would be a minor miracle. You really think it's that unlikely? I don't know why they returned to the 2 tournaments in 1 year route if they're scared of imminent cancellation. If worse comes to worse couldn't they survive on a 1 tournament/year system again? That'd be 36 and 37 right before the 2020 Tokyo olympics. I don't even see them returning to 1 a year though, and at this rate I expect we'll see up to 38 or even 39 if all goes about the same or a little better from here on out. I'd say what happens after 2020 will be the truer minor miracle requirement, but I'm not exactly an expert on these things. Of course all of this is probably based on one Sasuke tournament not completely tanking. The future is too far out for us to know I guess The change to once a year and going back to trying two a year is more budgetary than anything. If a tournament does so terribly in ratings that TBS cans the show or if they have no money, it doesn't matter if they planned to do another in a few months. |
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arsenette
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Post by arsenette on Mar 28, 2018 11:20:39 GMT -5
Yep TCM that's how it works. They approve them in blocks as they are financially secured via sponsorship they receive not just by advertisers but by marketing firms (they are a bit different over there than in the USA though ANW has the same set up.. roughly). They were set to 2018 (not sure if fiscal 2018 or end of 2018) with right to renew until 2020 (which would fit nicely since the Olympics are in Tokyo and Sasuke can be perceived to fit the sports genre even if it's a variety show). They moved to 2 a year when the USA injected a cubic boatload of money directly to Sasuke (and not TBS) when the had the Ninja Warrior rights under Esquire. Esquire went down but TBS cashed that check and went ahead and revived Kunoichi twice and did 4 Sasuke tournaments. Money's pretty much gone since they haven't made money due to them not doing so hot in the ratings. They haven't grown either. I'm thinking the streaming thing is more of a carrot for some using Sasuke's name to promote the service but I doubt a single yen will actually go to Sasuke. So as a result they are riding the contract in hopes they grow. One could argue they are/aren't doing enough to raise the profile of Sasuke specifically in Japan to warrant continuation past 2020. So far their plateau is pretty low. Also in the chart 3/4 of the list hasn't broadcasted their numbers and there's no list of where it placed. Japan doesn't publish hourly like we are so used to in the USA. Television rating fans usually extrapolate given the data they have. Some years we get a lot (usually see how they ranked rather than an actual rating) and others not. Depends on the viewership that night. Here in the USA it's published without question and everyone has access to the data and published online within 12 hours. Japan you have to put your detective hat on. As for "enough for" the next tournament, that is usually set in advance by a year or so depending on their budget. So that's where the 2020 thing is coming up. We'll find out if the contract expires end of year or if they got the 2 year extension if/when 37 is announced. Given that they are given up on Kunoichi I'm thinking they are sacrificing that to save Sasuke to 2020. After that.. all bets are off. That's my rough understanding after not following Sasuke closely in the past year for obvious reasons. I happen to like ratings analysis as a hobby which is why I still do it for ANW despite not watching the show for several years. I just find it fascinating.
Edit: Just saw the controversy. I'm assuming they put in the blurb that's written in Japanese (usually top left of the screen) that someone was actually winning and fans were FURIOUS that they were misled (thus clickbait). That's the first time I've seen something like that. Shame because that's not a good sign that people who did watch might not be prone to believe advertising for future shows. Not good considering that they haven't broken past 10 rating in a while.. which means they are pissing off the hardcore in Japan.
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Eclipse
Satō Jun
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Post by Eclipse on Mar 28, 2018 11:29:17 GMT -5
Just wanted to make a post in here because I always see people taking ratings at face value, when that isn't exactly the case. The world of TV is changing rapidly and between many factors (increasing # of channels, alternate providers, streaming, lowered interest in traditional TV, etc), the average attainable rating that a television broadcast can get is decaying every year. In the 60s it was possible to get 40, 50, 60% ratings on popular shows, but in the modern world getting up to 20% is essentially unheard of. Due to this, it is not necessarily fair to compare ratings equally. So I went and used some broadcast ratings data and made approximate adjustments. These are not exact figures but should give a clearer image of things:  The blue is the raw ratings values for SASUKE. Obviously you can see that they were way higher in the past and have a huge downward trend. The red value is ratings adjusted for viewership deflation as based on some public domain ratings. It is still very clear to see that the first few years saw a sharp spike. You can also clearly see the peaks for Kane's spree up to 8, before plummeting. There was also a short resurgence in Nagano's Final Stage years from 11-13. With that said, modern SASUKE is low, but it isn't exactly tanking. RISING has still been about on par with 15-17 and 19-21, and ratings have been on an approximately stable if not *slightly* upward trend since SASUKE 23. (Although SASUKE 25 tanked hard) Sasuke's ratings are fine. In the RISING era they have mostly been holding steady. I'm not saying SASUKE won't get cancelled, but if it does, it will likely be political / budgetary reasons and not based on ratings. TL;DR do not put so much stock in ratings, as there is a natural downward trend globally in viewership per program. |
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arsenette
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Post by arsenette on Mar 28, 2018 11:34:20 GMT -5
but if it does, it will likely be political / budgetary reasons and not based on ratings. They don't exist in a vacuum though. When compared to the other stations they are not getting the advertising pool that they used to based on ratings. That explains why when Rising started they only could get 1 tournament a year. Had it not been for the Esquire money it would have been stuck at 1 a year since TBS doesn't allocate money the same to all of it's programs. Japan's market is fluctuating a lot and that is a part of it (meaning there are less and less viewers as a pool in general) but consistently not winning timeslots is new to Sasuke. They were always top 3 and now not so much. That affects how much they can command in terms of advertising revenue. Sasuke is not growing which is probably why it's being re-branded as Ninja Warrior hoping to get outside help since clearly in Japan it's failing hard. |
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Eclipse
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Post by Eclipse on Mar 28, 2018 11:38:08 GMT -5
Money's pretty much gone since they haven't made money due to them not doing so hot in the ratings. They haven't grown either. I'm thinking the streaming thing is more of a carrot for some using Sasuke's name to promote the service but I doubt a single yen will actually go to Sasuke. So as a result they are riding the contract in hopes they grow. One could argue they are/aren't doing enough to raise the profile of Sasuke specifically in Japan to warrant continuation past 2020. So far their plateau is pretty low. Not good considering that they haven't broken past 10 rating in a while.. which means they are pissing off the hardcore in Japan. The ratings certainly aren't "hot" but they're stable. Sadly stable is not enough when they want growth and revenue, whereas stable is just scraping by/breaking even. The plateau is definitely pretty low. Based on my math and analysis, I would guess that they're holding relatively steady with slight decline on their core dedicated fanbase, and the fluctuations are based on passerbys / casual viewers who want thrills. This is where the "clickbait" worries me. They REALLY overplayed their hand in everything this year, the promotion, the ads, the leading. It felt like they played their full hand to try and draw people in. My expectation is that unless there is a confirmed total victory in 36, they're going to see a large plummet due to burning off the casual fanbase with over-promising. |
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Eclipse
Satō Jun
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Post by Eclipse on Mar 28, 2018 11:42:14 GMT -5
but if it does, it will likely be political / budgetary reasons and not based on ratings. They don't exist in a vacuum though. When compared to the other stations they are not getting the advertising pool that they used to based on ratings. That explains why when Rising started they only could get 1 tournament a year. Had it not been for the Esquire money it would have been stuck at 1 a year since TBS doesn't allocate money the same to all of it's programs. Japan's market is fluctuating a lot and that is a part of it (meaning there are less and less viewers as a pool in general) but consistently not winning timeslots is new to Sasuke. They were always top 3 and now not so much. That affects how much they can command in terms of advertising revenue. Sasuke is not growing which is probably why it's being re-branded as Ninja Warrior hoping to get outside help since clearly in Japan it's failing hard. Oh I 100% agree. Adding "Ninja Warrior" is so clearly in the "Last Ditch Effort" category as far as I am concerned. They wanted SASUKE 35 to be a hit so badly and honestly I think it put them 1 step closer to the grave with some of the mistakes they made. In Japan, SASUKE has not been growing in years. My understanding is that it's losing timeslots now because only the core dedicated fans remain, whereas new shows have a lot more potential to gain new fans. I don't expect SASUKE to ever win a timeslot again honestly, I don't think it's mathematically feasible, even with adverts and a Kanzenseiha |
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arsenette
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Post by arsenette on Mar 28, 2018 11:46:16 GMT -5
Money's pretty much gone since they haven't made money due to them not doing so hot in the ratings. They haven't grown either. I'm thinking the streaming thing is more of a carrot for some using Sasuke's name to promote the service but I doubt a single yen will actually go to Sasuke. So as a result they are riding the contract in hopes they grow. One could argue they are/aren't doing enough to raise the profile of Sasuke specifically in Japan to warrant continuation past 2020. So far their plateau is pretty low. Not good considering that they haven't broken past 10 rating in a while.. which means they are pissing off the hardcore in Japan. The ratings certainly aren't "hot" but they're stable. Sadly stable is not enough when they want growth and revenue, whereas stable is just scraping by/breaking even. The plateau is definitely pretty low. Based on my math and analysis, I would guess that they're holding relatively steady with slight decline on their core dedicated fanbase, and the fluctuations are based on passerbys / casual viewers who want thrills. This is where the "clickbait" worries me. They REALLY overplayed their hand in everything this year, the promotion, the ads, the leading. It felt like they played their full hand to try and draw people in. My expectation is that unless there is a confirmed total victory in 36, they're going to see a large plummet due to burning off the casual fanbase with over-promising. Yeah. The story of the clickbait is worrisome. In general though most of the Sasuke group (Inui included) ignore that type of stuff since he's given a job to do and they expect people will forget their transgressions. Ratings are an indication that no.. they haven't forgiven them since it has not raised. Only the hardcore are watching. Most casual already left the show and openly say that they haven't watched a show since the Monster 9 days. With Nagano gone there's no one else they are attached to. We'll see what happens. Come hell or high water they will venture on until there is no money left (and we know there isn't any left now). The spin offs prove that they don't need Sasuke Japan to exist and thrive in the international market. Hell.. Ninja Warrior (Japan) worldwide hasn't been a thing in what.. 7 years? So I expect it will be done at/around 2020. I'm sure they want to go on a high note so they are gunning for Morimoto to win it all and stop there. |
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Eclipse
Satō Jun
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Post by Eclipse on Mar 28, 2018 11:59:34 GMT -5
The ratings certainly aren't "hot" but they're stable. Sadly stable is not enough when they want growth and revenue, whereas stable is just scraping by/breaking even. The plateau is definitely pretty low. Based on my math and analysis, I would guess that they're holding relatively steady with slight decline on their core dedicated fanbase, and the fluctuations are based on passerbys / casual viewers who want thrills. This is where the "clickbait" worries me. They REALLY overplayed their hand in everything this year, the promotion, the ads, the leading. It felt like they played their full hand to try and draw people in. My expectation is that unless there is a confirmed total victory in 36, they're going to see a large plummet due to burning off the casual fanbase with over-promising. Yeah. The story of the clickbait is worrisome. In general though most of the Sasuke group (Inui included) ignore that type of stuff since he's given a job to do and they expect people will forget their transgressions. Ratings are an indication that no.. they haven't forgiven them since it has not raised. Only the hardcore are watching. Most casual already left the show and openly say that they haven't watched a show since the Monster 9 days. With Nagano gone there's no one else they are attached to. We'll see what happens. Come hell or high water they will venture on until there is no money left (and we know there isn't any left now). The spin offs prove that they don't need Sasuke Japan to exist and thrive in the international market. Hell.. Ninja Warrior (Japan) worldwide hasn't been a thing in what.. 7 years? So I expect it will be done at/around 2020. I'm sure they want to go on a high note so they are gunning for Morimoto to win it all and stop there. Me too, I am positive at this point the next Kanzenseiha will be the last, and that they want to go out on a high note. I can't speak for everybody, but I will be happy with that. I feel like the show is winding down. Plus Inui said he'd consider a DVD boxset after the show ends and boy I am ready for an unreasonably overpriced boxset |
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Contract is probably up to the Olympics in Tokyo. After that we'll see. Esquire money has been spent.
