Post by DonalM on Oct 6, 2017 2:11:54 GMT -5
Forgot this happened, but let's do this.
Stage 1: Any guesses between 31 and 51 could get points. Only one person did.
Stage 2: No one underestimated, or even guessed right on this Stage. 14 clears? Really?
Stage 3 and Grand Champions: Plenty of points to be gained or lost here. Guessing these correctly was pivotal to doing well.
LMS: Drew and Josh let a lot of people down. No one picked Joe, Najee or Sean. Since I wasn't able to get the proper times on each competitor getting to the Wingnuts, closing out the Top 5 I used Drew, Daniel, Flip, Rayl, and Jaime, the 5 who failed the dismount. Either of these choices would get you 20 points. This caused Levin to let those with faith in him (including me) down even more.
Best Female: This is one no one failed to pick up points on (and only one person got lower than 50 points on), but only one person got the full 100 for picking Allyssa.
Stage 1: A lot of normally fast guys went relatively slow on this course, letting quite a few people down. This was brutal, with only 2 people getting 20 points in this round.
Stage 2: Most people picked Drew. This was not good for them. A couple picked Joe. This was very good for them.
First Tiebreaker is determined by total difference in predictions for clear numbers of the first 4 stages. Stage 1 difference is multiplied by 1, Stage 2 by 3, Stage 3 by 5, and Stage 4 by 10. Second Tiebreaker, if necesary, is determined by how far off each ninja prediction was from being correct, in terms of placement (everyone who failed the wingnut dismount will yet again be counted as having finished 4th). As in golf, lowest score wins of course.
Results (skip to the end for the winner if you hate fun):
Stage 1: Any guesses between 31 and 51 could get points. Only one person did.
Stage 2: No one underestimated, or even guessed right on this Stage. 14 clears? Really?
Stage 3 and Grand Champions: Plenty of points to be gained or lost here. Guessing these correctly was pivotal to doing well.
LMS: Drew and Josh let a lot of people down. No one picked Joe, Najee or Sean. Since I wasn't able to get the proper times on each competitor getting to the Wingnuts, closing out the Top 5 I used Drew, Daniel, Flip, Rayl, and Jaime, the 5 who failed the dismount. Either of these choices would get you 20 points. This caused Levin to let those with faith in him (including me) down even more.
Best Female: This is one no one failed to pick up points on (and only one person got lower than 50 points on), but only one person got the full 100 for picking Allyssa.
Stage 1: A lot of normally fast guys went relatively slow on this course, letting quite a few people down. This was brutal, with only 2 people getting 20 points in this round.
Stage 2: Most people picked Drew. This was not good for them. A couple picked Joe. This was very good for them.
First Tiebreaker is determined by total difference in predictions for clear numbers of the first 4 stages. Stage 1 difference is multiplied by 1, Stage 2 by 3, Stage 3 by 5, and Stage 4 by 10. Second Tiebreaker, if necesary, is determined by how far off each ninja prediction was from being correct, in terms of placement (everyone who failed the wingnut dismount will yet again be counted as having finished 4th). As in golf, lowest score wins of course.
Results (skip to the end for the winner if you hate fun):
{Number 23}
With 70 points, mesa3for4 comes in dead last. You were only 2 away from getting points for Stage 1; unfortunately, this caused ridiculous overestimation for the following Stages. The day we see 4 Stage 3 clears is the day I become a ballet dancer. Your training partner was fast, but he wasn't fast enough.
With 70 points, mesa3for4 comes in dead last. You were only 2 away from getting points for Stage 1; unfortunately, this caused ridiculous overestimation for the following Stages. The day we see 4 Stage 3 clears is the day I become a ballet dancer. Your training partner was fast, but he wasn't fast enough.
{Number 22}
danielnc comes in 22nd with 110 points and a tiebreaker score of 52. You overestimated on Stages 2 and up, which cost you valuable points. This becomes a trend.
danielnc comes in 22nd with 110 points and a tiebreaker score of 52. You overestimated on Stages 2 and up, which cost you valuable points. This becomes a trend.
{Number 21}
Also with 110 points, but a tiebreaker score of 41, SasukeForever just misses the Top 20. Your bad luck from the Sasuke guessing game continues onto ANW! You were the only one to pick a top woman not named Jess(i)e or Allyssa, a gamble which ultimately didn't pay off, as Meagan seemed to acquire your bad luck on the course.
Also with 110 points, but a tiebreaker score of 41, SasukeForever just misses the Top 20. Your bad luck from the Sasuke guessing game continues onto ANW! You were the only one to pick a top woman not named Jess(i)e or Allyssa, a gamble which ultimately didn't pay off, as Meagan seemed to acquire your bad luck on the course.
{Number 20}
With 120 points we have Philip . You thought Josh Levin and a mystery person would achieve total victory. Josh and this mystery person let you down.
With 120 points we have Philip . You thought Josh Levin and a mystery person would achieve total victory. Josh and this mystery person let you down.
{Number 19}
With 130 points, we have matt723894 . You were the only one to get points predicting Stage 1! This, however, yet again caused an overestimation of the following stages.
With 130 points, we have matt723894 . You were the only one to get points predicting Stage 1! This, however, yet again caused an overestimation of the following stages.
{Number 18}
Kicking off the 140 point cluster we have nylacrosse15 . It seems you originally had Jake Murray getting both Stage 1 and 2's fastest times, but, lucky for your points, you changed this. You probably should have changed that 2 total victory prediction to, would have prevented your 53 tiebreaker point total.
Kicking off the 140 point cluster we have nylacrosse15 . It seems you originally had Jake Murray getting both Stage 1 and 2's fastest times, but, lucky for your points, you changed this. You probably should have changed that 2 total victory prediction to, would have prevented your 53 tiebreaker point total.
{Number 17}
With 140 points and a 47 points tiebreaker is Steven π . Maybe it's a good thing you weren't able to watch the finals. You thought either Drew or Josh would be grand champion. Too bad there wasn't a C. None of the Above.
With 140 points and a 47 points tiebreaker is Steven π . Maybe it's a good thing you weren't able to watch the finals. You thought either Drew or Josh would be grand champion. Too bad there wasn't a C. None of the Above.
{Number 16}
With 140 points, 45 tiebreaker points, and the first victim of our second tiebreaker, we have Paragus . Your second tiebreaker score was literally infinity. I don't plan on figuring out how far away Ethan Swanson was from being the fastest Stage 1 finisher, so infinity is close enough.
With 140 points, 45 tiebreaker points, and the first victim of our second tiebreaker, we have Paragus . Your second tiebreaker score was literally infinity. I don't plan on figuring out how far away Ethan Swanson was from being the fastest Stage 1 finisher, so infinity is close enough.
{Number 15}
With 140 points, 45 tiebreaker points, and a more reasonable score of 19 second tiebreaker points, we had StepSliderSylv . Not sure what a Crand Champion is, but Drew Drechsel is probably good enough to be one of those.
With 140 points, 45 tiebreaker points, and a more reasonable score of 19 second tiebreaker points, we had StepSliderSylv . Not sure what a Crand Champion is, but Drew Drechsel is probably good enough to be one of those.
{Number 14}
With 140 points, and the best tiebreaker score of the bunch with 43, we have ravensnationftw . Whether Joe Flacco is elite is debatable, but I think we've established that you're not elite at guessing games.
With 140 points, and the best tiebreaker score of the bunch with 43, we have ravensnationftw . Whether Joe Flacco is elite is debatable, but I think we've established that you're not elite at guessing games.
In 13th place, with 150 points we have Al Bundy . You had a guy who'd never got past Stage 1's third obstacle with the fastest time? And a guy who'd never got past Stage 2's third obstacle with the fastest time? At least your Stage 2 and 3 predictions were decent.
{Number 12}
With 160 points and a tiebreaker score of 66, we have risingkingzz . You did well as the only one to pick Allyssa Bierd to go the farthest of the women, being one of the few to get 100 points. If your stage clear predictions were as shrewd, you may not have lost the tiebreaker by so much.
With 160 points and a tiebreaker score of 66, we have risingkingzz . You did well as the only one to pick Allyssa Bierd to go the farthest of the women, being one of the few to get 100 points. If your stage clear predictions were as shrewd, you may not have lost the tiebreaker by so much.
{Number 11}
With 160 points and an impressive tiebreaker score of 36, we have blah123 . You shrewdly (why must this be described as shrewd?) picked 0 grand champions, as well as a high number of Stage 1 clears. This gave you a great tiebreaker score, allowing you to beat one person.
With 160 points and an impressive tiebreaker score of 36, we have blah123 . You shrewdly (why must this be described as shrewd?) picked 0 grand champions, as well as a high number of Stage 1 clears. This gave you a great tiebreaker score, allowing you to beat one person.
{Number 10}
Rounding out the Top 10, with our first 170 score of a few, and the worst tiebreaker score of the lot with 45 is c0balt . As someone who has watched the Vegas finals live in the past, I expected shrewd picks. They were decent, but not shrewd.
Rounding out the Top 10, with our first 170 score of a few, and the worst tiebreaker score of the lot with 45 is c0balt . As someone who has watched the Vegas finals live in the past, I expected shrewd picks. They were decent, but not shrewd.
{Number 9}
With 170 points, a tiebreaker score of 43, and a second tiebreaker score of 38, we have the creator of this guessing game, marsllama ! Hopefully you have started something meaningful, even if your results weren't. Kevin Bull just wasn't fast enough, and Daniel Gil just wasn't strong enough.
With 170 points, a tiebreaker score of 43, and a second tiebreaker score of 38, we have the creator of this guessing game, marsllama ! Hopefully you have started something meaningful, even if your results weren't. Kevin Bull just wasn't fast enough, and Daniel Gil just wasn't strong enough.
{Number 8}
With 170 points, a tiebreaker score of 43, and a shrewd second tiebreaker score of 18, is Sierrae . The first entry of the game was a decent one. You took a chance choosing the Labreck Jess(i)e over the Graff one, which fortunately didn't cost you any points.
With 170 points, a tiebreaker score of 43, and a shrewd second tiebreaker score of 18, is Sierrae . The first entry of the game was a decent one. You took a chance choosing the Labreck Jess(i)e over the Graff one, which fortunately didn't cost you any points.
{Number 6}
Our first tie! (ever, in any guessing game variation?) Both Zach Smith and christianpanda ended up with 170 points, 38 tiebreaker points, and infinity second tiebreaker points. You also had literally the exact same answers. Coincidence? Maybe, but I feel like one of you copied off the other. You know how when you cheat off a friends paper, you miss all the same stuff they missed? That's basically what happened here with choosing Jake Murray for fastest Stage 1 clear.
Our first tie! (ever, in any guessing game variation?) Both Zach Smith and christianpanda ended up with 170 points, 38 tiebreaker points, and infinity second tiebreaker points. You also had literally the exact same answers. Coincidence? Maybe, but I feel like one of you copied off the other. You know how when you cheat off a friends paper, you miss all the same stuff they missed? That's basically what happened here with choosing Jake Murray for fastest Stage 1 clear.
{Number 5}
Into the Top 5, with 190 points, we have kianmike . A very shrewd pick of Joe Moravsky having the fastest stage 2 time, making you the only one to correctly pick this, and giving you 100 points. However, your Stage 2-4 clear predictions were too far off to let you challenge for the title.
Into the Top 5, with 190 points, we have kianmike . A very shrewd pick of Joe Moravsky having the fastest stage 2 time, making you the only one to correctly pick this, and giving you 100 points. However, your Stage 2-4 clear predictions were too far off to let you challenge for the title.
{Number 4}
With 200 points on the money, we have me! I was ridiculously stingy on Stage 1 clears to reasons unbeknownst to even me, which fortunately didn't matter. I picked 4 clears on Stage 2, which was the lowest anyone picked, and no final stage clears, which helped. The Propeller Bar. I hated it when I first saw it on Stage 3, I hated it when it came to Stage 1, I hated it even more when I saw it had been nerfed for Season 9 and strong ninjas were still failing on it, and it just cost me (and many others) valuable points in injuring Josh Levin, costing him on Stage 2. Go to hell, propeller bar.
With 200 points on the money, we have me! I was ridiculously stingy on Stage 1 clears to reasons unbeknownst to even me, which fortunately didn't matter. I picked 4 clears on Stage 2, which was the lowest anyone picked, and no final stage clears, which helped. The Propeller Bar. I hated it when I first saw it on Stage 3, I hated it when it came to Stage 1, I hated it even more when I saw it had been nerfed for Season 9 and strong ninjas were still failing on it, and it just cost me (and many others) valuable points in injuring Josh Levin, costing him on Stage 2. Go to hell, propeller bar.
{Number 3}
Winning a bronze medal with 220 points, is MiguelAbuel . Despite thinking Drew would be crowned Grand Champion, your decent selections for Stage 2 and 3 clears, as well as picking Gil to finish fastest in Stage 1, gave you enough points to get the treasure chest, but not quite enough to challenge for the title.
Winning a bronze medal with 220 points, is MiguelAbuel . Despite thinking Drew would be crowned Grand Champion, your decent selections for Stage 2 and 3 clears, as well as picking Gil to finish fastest in Stage 1, gave you enough points to get the treasure chest, but not quite enough to challenge for the title.
{And then there were two}
In our top 2 spots, we have thatoneuser and ekkerb11 . Alex Cunningham, creater of Proto-Sasuke, both the series and the game (coming out shortly), now running our counterpart, the Sasuke guessing game. He's livestream announced many National Ninja League competitions, and has been an active member of this forum for years. Kevin Brekke, a multiple time Las Vegas finals (audience) veteran. He became the first ever winner of the obstacle design challenge with his creation Crank-It-Up, which since then has been seen in gyms across the country, and has become one of the most feared ninja obstacles. He since then has become a dark side ninja, joining ATS to scheme up even more devious obstacles to test the limits of ninjas across the country. They now go head to head to determine the shrewder of the two.
In our top 2 spots, we have thatoneuser and ekkerb11 . Alex Cunningham, creater of Proto-Sasuke, both the series and the game (coming out shortly), now running our counterpart, the Sasuke guessing game. He's livestream announced many National Ninja League competitions, and has been an active member of this forum for years. Kevin Brekke, a multiple time Las Vegas finals (audience) veteran. He became the first ever winner of the obstacle design challenge with his creation Crank-It-Up, which since then has been seen in gyms across the country, and has become one of the most feared ninja obstacles. He since then has become a dark side ninja, joining ATS to scheme up even more devious obstacles to test the limits of ninjas across the country. They now go head to head to determine the shrewder of the two.
{Number 1}
Both finalists had no one clearing Stage 3. They were the only ones to do so, and it took them to the final 2.
Both finalists had no one clearing Stage 3. They were the only ones to do so, and it took them to the final 2.
{Number 1}
Both finalists chose Josh Levin to be their Last Man Standing (rather surprising). If either of them had chosen even Drew Drechsel, they would have won the game outright.
Both finalists chose Josh Levin to be their Last Man Standing (rather surprising). If either of them had chosen even Drew Drechsel, they would have won the game outright.
{Still Number 1}
Both finalists scored 250 points.
Both finalists scored 250 points.
{Hang in there (dont go back to the actual guessing thread unless you hate fun)}
One had a tiebreaker score of 19. The other had a tiebreaker score of 28.
One had a tiebreaker score of 19. The other had a tiebreaker score of 28.
{Almost there}
The winner of the ANW Guessing Game Challenge is...
The winner of the ANW Guessing Game Challenge is...
{Number 1}
thatoneuser!!!
Have music!
Congrats thatoneuser on the win! Congrats ekkerb11 for putting up a great fight! Thanks everyone for playing! This was a blast to do (only about 3 hours), and I hope to do it again next year. EDIT: Sorry about the format problems. I was hoping to do a spoiler-within-spoiler reveal, but that clearly didn't work out. Will stick to the regular font next year.
thatoneuser!!!
Have music!
Congrats thatoneuser on the win! Congrats ekkerb11 for putting up a great fight! Thanks everyone for playing! This was a blast to do (only about 3 hours), and I hope to do it again next year. EDIT: Sorry about the format problems. I was hoping to do a spoiler-within-spoiler reveal, but that clearly didn't work out. Will stick to the regular font next year.