Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 16, 2017 6:53:06 GMT -5
Disturbance #1 [Invest 92] (8am EDT) Current Info 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 175 miles north-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands have increased overnight. Although the system is producing wind gusts to near tropical-storm force, satellite imagery suggests that it lacks a well-defined center. Upper-level winds are forecast to remain marginally conducive for some additional development during the next day or so while the system moves generally northward. Conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development by Wednesday when the disturbance merges with a frontal system over the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...med...40 percent. Current Location / Info: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 Spaghetti Models on Tracking: www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/photos/a.10152387417227367.1073741825.88134562366/10155599580572367/?type=3&theater
Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 17, 2017 9:45:10 GMT -5
Invest 92 is still a threat here in the next couple of days, however NHC isn't worried atm until it moves away from this front. Looks like it could form into a Cat 2 according to the Euro & GFS. What makes this worse? This is deja vu for Ireland.
Invest 92 is still a threat here in the next couple of days, however NHC isn't worried atm until it moves away from this front. Looks like it could form into a Cat 2 according to the Euro & GFS. What makes this worse? This is deja vu for Ireland.
And the third is actually over by central america during the last week of Oct / beginning of November. Models were predicting something could form and the GFS & CMC now point towards something forming then heading into the Gulf, however it's track looks to hit Cuba head on so far (of course too far out to confirm that). GFS model at lowest pressure on Nov 3rd: www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017101800/gfs_mslp_wind_atl_53.png [Further-est I could go on this model] CMC model at lowest pressure on Oct 28th: www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017101800/gem_mslp_wind_atl_41.png [Further-est I could go on this model]
Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 22, 2017 7:49:15 GMT -5
Western Caribbean is the place to watch starting one week from today. Looks like the CMC model makes a nice little storm and brings it through Cuba and up the east coast. Right now the only model disagreeing with a storm showing up now is the GFS but even the Euro is showing that something will form as conditions are becoming favorable. I'd imagine this will be our last named storm of the season, however with how many records this season has broken I wouldn't hold my breath.
Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 22, 2017 13:14:11 GMT -5
NHC finally picking up on it too:
1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Slow development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Slow development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 24, 2017 2:56:52 GMT -5
Disturbance #1 [Invest 93] (2am EDT) Current Info 1. An elongated low pressure system located near the northeastern coast of Nicaragua is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms over much of the northwestern and southwestern Caribbean Sea, and the adjacent coastal areas of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Further development, if any, should be slow to occur for the next couple of days due to interaction with the landmass of Central America. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive thereafter for some development to occur over the northwestern Caribbean Sea while the system moves slowly northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...med...50 percent. Current Location / Info: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 25, 2017 0:56:27 GMT -5
Disturbance #1 [Invest 93] (2am EDT) Current Info 1. A broad area of low pressure over Nicaragua, Honduras, and the adjacent Caribbean waters is producing widespread, but disorganized, showers and thunderstorms. Close proximity to land is likely to limit development of this system for the next day or so. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development to occur later this week while the system moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Central America during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...med...50 percent. Current Location / Info: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 Satellite Rainbow: www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/imagery/rb-animated.gif Intensity Models: www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/93L_intensity_latest.png Spaghetti Track Model #1: my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_93.gif Spaghetti Track Model #2: www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/93L_tracks_latest.png
Curious how that storm in the tropics will develop going right up the coast. Possible that it will impact me in South Jersey.. eerie that it on the anniversary of Sandy..
Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 27, 2017 6:57:38 GMT -5
Spike in activity over the last 6 hours. Looks to be a TD before the day ends.
Disturbance #1 [Invest 93] (8am EDT) Current Info 1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become more concentrated in association with a trough of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development today and Saturday, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Increasing upper-level winds will make conditions less favorable when the system moves north of Cuba and merges with a cold front on Sunday. Interests in the Cayman Islands and central and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. These rains are forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...med...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...med...60 percent. Current Location / Info: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 Satellite Rainbow: www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/imagery/rb-animated.gif Intensity Models: www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/93L_intensity_latest.png Spaghetti Track Model #1: my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_93.gif Spaghetti Track Model #2: www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/93L_tracks_latest.png
Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 27, 2017 18:00:15 GMT -5
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (5pm EDT)
Current Info Center is yet to be defined thus the delay in classification. Expected to be Tropical Storm Philippe. Winds: 40mph Pressure: 1006mb NOAA Forecast Cone + Watches/Warnings: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?cone#contents
Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 28, 2017 4:03:10 GMT -5
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (5am EDT)
Current Info Center is yet to be defined thus the delay in classification. Expected to be Tropical Storm Philippe. Most models show a track up the east coast and a US landfall in the North East Winds: 35mph Pressure: 1005mb NOAA Forecast Cone + Watches/Warnings: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?cone#contents
Disturbance #1 (2am EDT) Current Info 1. A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form next week over the east-central Atlantic Ocean. Some subtropical or tropical development of this low is possible by the middle of next week while it meanders well to the southwest of the Azores. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...med...20 percent. Current Location / Info: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
Disturbance #1 (2pm EDT) Current Info A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form during the next few days over the east-central Atlantic Ocean. Some subtropical or tropical development of this low is possible by the middle of next week while it meanders well to the southwest of the Azores. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...med...30 percent. Current Location / Info: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
Disturbance #1 (2pm EDT) Current Info 1. A non-tropical low pressure system is located about 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. This low could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics by the middle of the week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...med...40 percent. Current Location / Info: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Nov 3, 2017 20:33:38 GMT -5
Disturbance #1 (8pm EDT) Current Info 1. Satellite imagery indicates that a weak area of low pressure has formed about 1000 miles southeast of Bermuda, accompanied by disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This low could acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics as it moves to the north-northeast over the central Atlantic this weekend and early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Current Location / Info: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5