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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 7, 2017 11:54:32 GMT -5
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 7, 2017 14:14:53 GMT -5
2pm update was sent out but no change in strength. Will hold off until 5pm update as Nate will be making landfall around then.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 7, 2017 16:28:31 GMT -5
Was curious about this and the NWS just confirmed it.
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Post by lightningmatt on Oct 7, 2017 18:59:22 GMT -5
I don't even live there, I live in Ontario. We get more, uh...floods (?) than anything else.
edit: crap forgot to quote.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 7, 2017 19:08:06 GMT -5
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 7, 2017 19:12:57 GMT -5
I don't even live there, I live in Ontario. We get more, uh...floods (?) than anything else. edit: crap forgot to quote. Best thing to check is the link in my updates titled "NOAA Tracker". It'll show you where the storm is going and what strength it'll possibly be. www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 9, 2017 8:14:40 GMT -5
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 9, 2017 9:51:20 GMT -5
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 9, 2017 14:33:07 GMT -5
Canadian models are suggesting something forming in the Gulf soon.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 10, 2017 10:48:09 GMT -5
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 11, 2017 8:10:51 GMT -5
Update: Models are showing conditions are unfavorable for any storm forming. Looks like the system will dissipate before reaching the Gulf. NHC hasn't mentioned it yet but there's another storm possibly forming in the Atlantic however models having it hooking back east out to sea, but we're too far out to tell if it'll happen. Tropical Storm Ophelia (8am EDT)Current InfoOphelia expected to reach Hurricane strength by tonight. Will hit Europe as a hurricane.Winds: 65mphPressure: 996mb NOAA Tracker: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contentsSpaghetti Models for Track: my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_17
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 13, 2017 10:37:44 GMT -5
Hurricane Ophelia (Cat 2) (11am EDT)Current InfoOphelia has peaked in strength. Will hit Ireland on landfall.Winds: 100mphPressure: 971mb NOAA Tracker: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contentsSpaghetti Models for Track: my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_17Disturbance #1 (8am EDT)Current Info 1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and passes north of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands. However, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development early next week while the system begins to move northward over the west-central Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.Current Location / Info: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
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arsenette
Administrator
Rambling Rican
Posts: 16,617
Staff Member
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Post by arsenette on Oct 13, 2017 16:15:06 GMT -5
Thanks for keeping up! No updates on family other than 1 aunt (the one that lost everything) is coming back to the USA with nothing but the clothes on her back at the end of the month (she has to wait for FEMA to tarp her house) and her flight is booked already. My cousin Mari I haven't heard from in a week and I'm losing my mind. I'm trying to find a way to bring her here with her family but am waiting to hear from a few places I reached out to see if I can find her a place to stay. I'll keep you guys posted but I may have to fundraise to get her out of there... when I get back in touch with her.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 13, 2017 19:56:05 GMT -5
Thanks for keeping up! No updates on family other than 1 aunt (the one that lost everything) is coming back to the USA with nothing but the clothes on her back at the end of the month (she has to wait for FEMA to tarp her house) and her flight is booked already. My cousin Mari I haven't heard from in a week and I'm losing my mind. I'm trying to find a way to bring her here with her family but am waiting to hear from a few places I reached out to see if I can find her a place to stay. I'll keep you guys posted but I may have to fundraise to get her out of there... when I get back in touch with her. Yes please keep us updated! So far future models on Canadian and GFS are looking clear but you never know. Thankfully the disturbance that NHC is finally tracking is only going out to sea.
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Anshin
Nakata Daisuke
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 949
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Post by Anshin on Oct 14, 2017 1:56:22 GMT -5
Removed storm names from the thread title. Too many to keep in the thread title. Harvey, Irma, Jose, Katia, Lee, Marie, Nate, Ophelia.
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arsenette
Administrator
Rambling Rican
Posts: 16,617
Staff Member
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Post by arsenette on Oct 14, 2017 6:21:58 GMT -5
Removed storm names from the thread title. Too many to keep in the thread title. Harvey, Irma, Jose, Katia, Lee, Marie, Nate, Ophelia. Tell me about it! It's been one hell of a season. Usually these suckers form and do looptie loops in the Atlantic.. this year they decided they wanted to go shopping for beach houses and slammed into everything.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 14, 2017 15:13:11 GMT -5
Not a good update Major Hurricane Ophelia [Cat 3] (2pm EDT)Current InfoOphelia intensifies in strength and becomes a rare Cat 3 major hurricane South of the Azores. This is the sixth major hurricane of the 2017 season. Will hit Ireland on landfall.Info from the Irish Meteorological Service:Hurricane Ophelia is expected to undergo an extra-tropical transition over the next 24 to 36 hours. That means its structure and appearance is going to undergo drastic changes as it approaches Ireland. It will lose its hurricane status but will become a powerful extra-tropical storm. Current indications are suggesting that Ex-Hurricane Ophelia will likely engage with an upper trough of low pressure in the mid-Atlantic at some point tomorrow afternoon. This engagement will cause the storm system to accelerate somewhat north-northeast towards Ireland and the UK.More Info here: www.met.ie/news/display.asp?ID=452Winds: 115mphPressure: 960mb NOAA Tracker: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contentsSpaghetti Models for Track: my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_17Satellite: www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17L/imagery/vis-animated.gifDisturbance #1 (2pm EDT)Current Info 1. A broad area of low pressure centered just east of the northern Leeward Islands is accompanied by numerous showers and squalls mainly to the east of the center. This activity is expected to spread over the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands today and Sunday. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, but the environment could turn a little more favorable for some development early next week when the system begins to move northward and then recurves over the west-central Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...med...40 percent.Current Location / Info: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 15, 2017 14:19:24 GMT -5
Hurricane Ophelia [Cat 1] (2pm EDT)Current InfoOphelia weakens. Will start transition to strong post-tropical cyclone tonight and lose its hurricane status. Ophelia sets a record for being the strongest an Atlantic hurricane has ever been this far east so late in the year. Will hit Ireland on landfall with hurricane force strength.Info from the Irish Meteorological Service: www.met.ie/news/display.asp?ID=455Winds: 90mphPressure: 973mb NOAA Tracker: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contentsSpaghetti Models for Track: my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_17Satellite: www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17L/imagery/vis-animated.gifDisturbance #1 (2pm EDT)Current Info 1. A broad area of low pressure is moving toward the west-northwest and is now located about 150 miles north of Hispaniola. The low is producing numerous showers and a few squalls mainly to the east of the center. Since upper-level winds are not particularly favorable for tropical cyclone formation, further development of this system, if any, will be slow to occur. The low and its associated activity is forecast to move toward the northwest and north during the next two to three days. After that time, this system is expected to merge with a cold front. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...med...50 percent.Current Location / Info: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2Some good news coming from the GFS models, the only thing I see forming for now (and for a very short time) is this disturbance above and I don't see that reaching Hurricane strength let alone no landfall is to be expected. Other than that, I don't see anything showing up on the maps up until Oct 31st when the models stop. So the season may finally be done, however you never know this far out still. On the flip side, the CMC is showing a lot of activity still with a couple of potential storms popping up. Most don't seem to make landfall anywhere near the USA however a couple seem to hit Europe. We will see.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 15, 2017 19:56:29 GMT -5
Hurricane Ophelia [Cat 1] (8pm EDT)Current InfoOphelia weakens. Will start transition to strong post-tropical cyclone tonight and lose its hurricane status, however still a hurricane as of 8pm EDT. Ophelia sets a record for being the strongest an Atlantic hurricane has ever been this far east so late in the year. Will hit Ireland on landfall with hurricane force strength.Info from the Irish Meteorological Service: www.met.ie/news/display.asp?ID=455Winds: 85mphPressure: 971mb NOAA Tracker: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contentsSpaghetti Models for Track: my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_17Satellite: www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17L/imagery/vis-animated.gifDisturbance #1 (8pm EDT)Current Info 1. A large area of showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Puerto Rico and Bermuda is associated with a broad area of low pressure, which is centered about 150 miles east-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Any development of this low while it moves generally northward over the western Atlantic during the next day or so is expected to be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds, and the system is likely to merge with a front and become extratropical in a couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...med...40 percent.Current Location / Info: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 15, 2017 22:05:50 GMT -5
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