arsenette
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Post by arsenette on Apr 18, 2017 16:56:42 GMT -5
From what I understand doing some research on it that gives the last of the remainers a way to say "see I told you" while squashing the opposition. TBH I think it's better this way so they can finally get their act together and work on the deals to get out. They already signed it and it's effective instantly so it's a distraction for the remainers to still be complaining. This may backfire but most are thinking it will just clear out the rest of them.
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gt4dom
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Post by gt4dom on Apr 18, 2017 19:34:34 GMT -5
In the UK there's 2 major parties: Conservatives and Labour. In the UK there are 650 elected regions, and each region elects a member of parliament (MP) in the same way as US, whichever party gets the most votes in that region get's the MP for that region. In order for anything in the UK to be law and passed by parliment the UK government has to get support from over half (so 326) MP's for it to become law. So far the conservatives have a small majority so if some of their MP's throw there toys out the pram and don't like something then chances are the government won't have a big enough majority to push through their Brexit rules. Currently Labour are a total shambles, their leader bless him is a lovely guy but totally inept and doesn't have much of a clue tbh which is a shame. Labour's popularity is at an all time low so the Conservatives are calling a snap general election (snap as normally they would wait 5 years between elections, last one was in 2015) so that they can improve their majority which means that there is less chance of Conservative rebel's blocking controversial Brexit bills such as not giving current European Union citizens residency in the UK when we leave. Oh and there's also parties such as the Scottish National Party (who usually win most of Scotland aka 50 seats), some in Wales, the UK Independence Party (who less people will vote for now they've achieved there goal of getting out of Europe; Usually old Conservative voters hence why Conservative are a lot more powerful now they're clawing these voters back) and the Liberal Democrats who were popular with students until they stabbed us all in the back and tripled our uni fees the AHHHHHH I hate them so much, cost me an extra £18k!!! So yea that's pretty much UK politics. Basically the Conservative's majority is going to get bigger, Labour leader probably going to resign and Brexit will face slightly less resistance from rebel MP's. Also a bit on Where I live (Derby, in the East Midlands of England) in the "seat" (what they call a region) of South Derbyshire is a Conservative Region and has been for as long as I've been born I believe. Generally South England and most of Midlands is Conservative, the North is Labour, Scotland is SNP and generally the regions in between decide who forms the government. Conservatives are middle to right wing, Labour are currently middle left wing, Liberals are Liberal ahah, UKIP is fairly right wing, Greens are bonkers and SNP are leftish
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arsenette
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Post by arsenette on Apr 18, 2017 21:07:59 GMT -5
Thanks gt! That was a great read! ♥ I had a small clue on that from research but love how you put it as simple as possible. My condolences on that extra 18k... omg...
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gt4dom
Jessie Graff
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Post by gt4dom on Apr 18, 2017 21:36:22 GMT -5
Thanks gt! That was a great read! ♥ I had a small clue on that from research but love how you put it as simple as possible. My condolences on that extra 18k... omg... Back in 2010 their were 3 main parties: Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats: Their split in votes were 32:30:29 respectively out of 100. Now it's 44:24:10 if this gives you an idea of how much Labour and Liberal Democrats have messed up! (Other parties: UKIP's at 12ish, SNP 5 but regularly get <50% in Scotland, and then Green are at like 5% but because of UK system only ever win one or two seats such as a place called Brighton which is full of environmentalists and because everyone is opposed to a nuclear power station in their area!) Major issue in UK politics atm is the first past the post system! Last election UKIP got 20% of the votes but only 1 out of 650 seats as they regularly finished 2nd to Conservatives or Labour. This is why Conservatives are so likely to get a significant majority compared to other countries such as the Netherlands where it is based on a % vote and why there political system is a shambles and has like 3 parties forming coalitions. Anyway main election in the next week is in France! It's a 4 HORSE RACE!!! Hopefully Macron wins because he has the funniest name and isn't a complete psycho like the other 3! (My friend who lives in Paris actually got to meet him at his rally the other day and said he was really young for a politician but really knowledgeable and nice too!) If Marine Le Pen (Like UKIP but for France, hates NATO, Europe, basically Trump but even more extreme) who is currently 2nd wins Eurozone will be under a lot of trouble!!!
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Lachie
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Post by Lachie on Apr 19, 2017 5:34:46 GMT -5
Thanks gt! That was a great read! ♥ I had a small clue on that from research but love how you put it as simple as possible. My condolences on that extra 18k... omg... Back in 2010 their were 3 main parties: Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats: Their split in votes were 32:30:29 respectively out of 100. Now it's 44:24:10 if this gives you an idea of how much Labour and Liberal Democrats have messed up! (Other parties: UKIP's at 12ish, SNP 5 but regularly get <50% in Scotland, and then Green are at like 5% but because of UK system only ever win one or two seats such as a place called Brighton which is full of environmentalists and because everyone is opposed to a nuclear power station in their area!) Major issue in UK politics atm is the first past the post system! Last election UKIP got 20% of the votes but only 1 out of 650 seats as they regularly finished 2nd to Conservatives or Labour. This is why Conservatives are so likely to get a significant majority compared to other countries such as the Netherlands where it is based on a % vote and why there political system is a shambles and has like 3 parties forming coalitions. Anyway main election in the next week is in France! It's a 4 HORSE RACE!!! Hopefully Macron wins because he has the funniest name and isn't a complete psycho like the other 3! (My friend who lives in Paris actually got to meet him at his rally the other day and said he was really young for a politician but really knowledgeable and nice too!) If Marine Le Pen (Like UKIP but for France, hates NATO, Europe, basically Trump but even more extreme) who is currently 2nd wins Eurozone will be under a lot of trouble!!! If Macron gets top 2 in the 1st round, he'll be the next president, regardless of who the other person is.
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Post by thatoneuser on Apr 19, 2017 7:35:56 GMT -5
Interestingly, a Telegraph poll has Marine Le Pen as the favorite with 48% thinking that she will win to Macron's 39%. Betting markets have Macron as evens and Le Pen at 3/1, right around where Trump was. source: www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/french-presidential-election-poll-tracker-odds/EDIT: For those that still believe in the power of polling, Macron has a 20-30% edge on Le Pen depending on the poll.
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Lachie
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Post by Lachie on Apr 19, 2017 8:06:51 GMT -5
There is multiple problems with that poll, the biggest being that the telegraph is in no way an official polling group in France, also the fact that IT'S AN ONLINE POLL! If you want daily, updated, actual polling, wikipedia is your best friend for that. Polling
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arsenette
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Post by arsenette on Apr 19, 2017 8:43:25 GMT -5
Well we all know how wrong polls can be so we can take it with a grain of salt. That said, yeah if France leaves the EU.. say goodbye to the whole thing. Losing the UK was a lynchpin.. to lose France will leave Germany footing the whole bill. That would be disastrous for them. Personally.. I want the EU as a structure to implode. It was flawed from the very beginning with only 2-3 countries footing a welfare check to the other dozen.
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Post by Shuberb674 on Apr 19, 2017 10:19:27 GMT -5
If the EU breaks down, it will be a sad day for global development.
One of the fundamentals of basic economic theory is that economic integration (the union of small divided lands into big unified lands) is tantamount for growth and development.
It's no coincidence that 300 years ago when countries were split onto squabbling provinces and kingdoms we all lived as starving farmers whose children had a 40% of reaching their 10th birthday, and now in our period of unprecedented growth and low mortality we have unified pieces of land populating millions, all living under the same banner.
A fracturing of the EU is a signal of economic DEintegration. Thing moving backwards. A unified zone of free trade and standardized legislation becoming a mass of 20+ individual nations who don't work the same way as each other, and will impose barriers to international trade in order to protect their own failing domestic industries, rather than letting true economic efficiency arise (by allowing failing domestic industries to die and making countries specialize only in production of goods they have a comparative advantage in).
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arsenette
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Post by arsenette on Apr 19, 2017 11:08:48 GMT -5
If the EU breaks down, it will be a sad day for global development. One of the fundamentals of basic economic theory is that economic integration (the union of small divided lands into big unified lands) is tantamount for growth and development. It's no coincidence that 300 years ago when countries were split onto squabbling provinces and kingdoms we all lived as starving farmers whose children had a 40% of reaching their 10th birthday, and now in our period of unprecedented growth and low mortality we have unified pieces of land populating millions, all living under the same banner. A fracturing of the EU is a signal of economic DEintegration. Thing moving backwards. A unified zone of free trade and standardized legislation becoming a mass of 20+ individual nations who don't work the same way as each other, and will impose barriers to international trade in order to protect their own failing domestic industries, rather than letting true economic efficiency arise (by allowing failing domestic industries to die and making countries specialize only in production of goods they have a comparative advantage in). The problem though is that formation of the EU was reverse of that ideal you are talking about. It was a glorified welfare state killing growth and economic prosperity for all. It was always a bureaucracy built by the wealthy, controlled by the elite few to control the less fortunate. That is why the EU imploded economically and forced nations that were fine before that to implode economically making millions suffer. Right now we are sitting at 3-4 countries bankrupted with more to follow. This was predicted at the formation of the EU from it's beginning.. which is why there were so many backup plans already in place and some countries keeping their original currency outside the EU without penalty. They were never unified to begin with. It was a facade all along and why it was doomed to failure from the instant it was proposed. Edit (since I didn't want to write another post): (video technically finishes at the 15 minute mark) This is a 2 year old video (2015) before Brexit that explained the Financial crisis of the Euro, where it came from and why it was imploding. So obviously adding Brexit on top of it (and now possibly France..) you can see why it was happening in the first place.
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gt4dom
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Post by gt4dom on Apr 19, 2017 12:19:22 GMT -5
I've made so muchmoney off Pollsters it's hilarious, I betted on both Brexit and Trump (got Trump at 20/1 as everyone forgot Miami had already voted and thought he would lose Florida) and Brexit at 10/1. Some of my coursemates are going into it and I have no idea why, just like Investment Banking no one has a clue and by the time they do it's usually too late. World's going crazyyyy though! Also thanks to Trump's incompetence I get an extra 12 cents per Pound now for my trip to the US so hopefully he keeps being a plonker for the next 2 months or so to make sure I get more Dollas!
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Lachie
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Post by Lachie on Apr 19, 2017 17:27:16 GMT -5
Well we all know how wrong polls can be so we can take it with a grain of salt. That said, yeah if France leaves the EU.. say goodbye to the whole thing. Losing the UK was a lynchpin.. to lose France will leave Germany footing the whole bill. That would be disastrous for them. Personally.. I want the EU as a structure to implode. It was flawed from the very beginning with only 2-3 countries footing a welfare check to the other dozen. You obviously don't know just how good polling is outside of the US, because, unlike US polling, most countries polling gets it within the margin of error. An example would be France 2012, the polls for the 1st round where within 1% of the actual result, while the 2nd round polls where even closer, just 0.38% out
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arsenette
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Post by arsenette on Apr 19, 2017 17:56:19 GMT -5
Well we all know how wrong polls can be so we can take it with a grain of salt. That said, yeah if France leaves the EU.. say goodbye to the whole thing. Losing the UK was a lynchpin.. to lose France will leave Germany footing the whole bill. That would be disastrous for them. Personally.. I want the EU as a structure to implode. It was flawed from the very beginning with only 2-3 countries footing a welfare check to the other dozen. You obviously don't know just how good polling is outside of the US, because, unlike US polling, most countries polling gets it within the margin of error. An example would be France 2012, the polls for the 1st round where within 1% of the actual result, while the 2nd round polls where even closer, just 0.38% out So the poll saying Brexit was never going to happen was my imagination? The comment was meant to GT anyway. Polls are just polls and dependent on a small portion of people. It is never scientific as it doesn't replace actual votes.
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Post by Shuberb674 on Apr 19, 2017 22:41:09 GMT -5
You obviously don't know just how good polling is outside of the US, because, unlike US polling, most countries polling gets it within the margin of error. An example would be France 2012, the polls for the 1st round where within 1% of the actual result, while the 2nd round polls where even closer, just 0.38% out So the poll saying Brexit was never going to happen was my imagination? The comment was meant to GT anyway. Polls are just polls and dependent on a small portion of people. It is never scientific as it doesn't replace actual votes. Arsenette is correct, every single poll showed a majority wanted to remain in the EU. Lachie you can't just give a result for 1 country in 1 situation and declare that polling outside the US is excellent, that's called inductive reasoning, and its logically invalid. Yeah polls predict things right sometimes, that's what they're supposed to do. But don't turn a blind eye to the other side of the story- the UK alone has had polling errors exceeding 5% in both the 1992 and 2015 general election. And don't get me started on the rest of "outside of the US". There are so many places where polls can go wrong, sample size, sample SELECTION bias, new events taking place between the poll and the actual vote, uncertainty in people which leads to a larger standard deviation in the sample results, not to mention whatever behind the scenes shenanigans and information mishandling/misrepresentation the pollers do in order advance their own agendas.
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arsenette
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Post by arsenette on Apr 20, 2017 10:44:24 GMT -5
We'll wait and see what happens. There's grumblings in the Netherlands and even Italy as well so this may implode sooner or later. Brexit was just the first nail to come off the coffin. I was shocked in 99 when they came up with it in the first place and after reading how it was set up I was just counting the days until it imploded. Economically it was never viable given how different countries have different spending habits. That's not even touching the cultural differences and the refugee crisis. That's all on top of the already failing set up of how the currency was handled. That video detailing how many asterisks were in that original formation document is something people really need to see. For those of us where already adults when this thing happened in the first place we saw this coming. I suspect those who grew up under the system don't exactly see what went wrong - they only see this as bad. Politicians created this mess to begin with so pointing out the craziness now doesn't change the fact that it's formation was unscrupulous anyway and how it was enforced was even worse. I suspect more chaos will happen with more and more people wanting to get out. Considering that the out clauses are not as clear cut for anyone in the union this is going to get messy. This is a messy Hollywood divorce with not everyone having a pre-nup.
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Post by UnrealCanine on Apr 20, 2017 16:33:09 GMT -5
Well we all know how wrong polls can be so we can take it with a grain of salt. That said, yeah if France leaves the EU.. say goodbye to the whole thing. Losing the UK was a lynchpin.. to lose France will leave Germany footing the whole bill. That would be disastrous for them. Personally.. I want the EU as a structure to implode. It was flawed from the very beginning with only 2-3 countries footing a welfare check to the other dozen. You obviously don't know just how good polling is outside of the US, because, unlike US polling, most countries polling gets it within the margin of error. An example would be France 2012, the polls for the 1st round where within 1% of the actual result, while the 2nd round polls where even closer, just 0.38% out The 2015 polls were so out they had to launch an official investigation about how bad they were
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gt4dom
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Post by gt4dom on Apr 22, 2017 21:36:36 GMT -5
After speaking to my French friend and my guesses, here's my predictions on les Francais elections! Le Pen - 25% Macron - 24% Other Pleb 1 - 20% Other Pleb 2 (Far Left geezer) - 18% Butttt would probably prefer Macron to get in. Basically anyone except the guy who wants 90% tax because after NI and Pensions that means you'd have like nothing left It's ridiculous at 80% tax, how anyone can justify it going it higher is crazyyyy, especially when with the EU they can just live in Belgium/Luxembourg/Switzerland/Germany and pay way less!
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Post by thatoneuser on Apr 23, 2017 14:16:54 GMT -5
As expected, Macron and Le Pen advance to the run-off. Polls have both candidates in about a dead heat. Both Fillon and Hamon (or as gt4dom described them, "plebs") have said that they will vote for Macron. The run-off will occur on May 7.
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Lachie
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Post by Lachie on Apr 23, 2017 16:53:34 GMT -5
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arsenette
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Post by arsenette on Apr 23, 2017 17:12:25 GMT -5
2 weeks to go I gather.
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