Post by dudesky1000 on Feb 7, 2011 22:52:24 GMT -5
Alright... I know we've been speculating whether or not there will be one or how people will do or what obstacles there will be but here is the OFFICIAL topic!! If what TBS says is true, SASUKE 27 (ideally, fingers crossed) will be filmed some time in March. We are in February. Prediction time!!!
What obstacles will return, what obstacles will get the boot, and what new obstacles will there be?
STAGE ONE: Overall I think Stage 1 will be made more difficult.
-I think the Step Slider will stay, however I think one step will be added to up the challenge.
-On the other hand, I think the Hazard Swing will go down as a "one time" obstacle and be replaced by something else (likely something like the Log Grip or a Barrel Climb).
-The Rolling Escargot is there to stay, however more people will clear this time because people will have had time to build their own and train specifically for that.
-The Jumping Spider will stay, probably the same exact model as last time.
-Half-Pipe Attack is there to stay. It did a fine job picking off hopeful contenders and remains a fun obstacle to watch people attempt.
-The Soritatsu Kabe will remain untouched. It's done its damage in the last era of SASUKE and because it's iconic it's not going anywhere.
-The Giant Swing will be slightly modified or replaced. Second to last obstacles are made to use up time and make people fail. Only 2 or 3 people lost so much time that they lost because of this obstacle and only one person (as far as we know) actually failed it. I think the Slider Jump is a likely return.
-The Rope Ladder will not leave. Nor will the Tarzan Rope. Or the little bridge.
STAGE TWO:
-For the most part, this stage is going to stay exactly the same.
-The Slider Drop will stay. It seems to me like they've run out of ideas for the first obstacle of the 2nd Stage, whose purpose is to launch you onto the stage (dangerously of course).
-TRIPER SARMON RADDER lol just kidding. Double is hard enough, and it does a fine job of taking stamina and energy out of contenders.
-The Unstable Bridge hasn't really taken anyone out recently... so I could totally see it being made harder but... nah. It's gonna stay untouched.
-The Balance Tank will stay as it is. The modified rope makes it a bit easier, but it remains a tough and tricky obstacle to perform after the last combo regardless.
-The Metal Spin did it's job by eliminating a key contender in SASUKE 26... not being changed.
-Wall Lift = Wall Lift
STAGE THREE:
-This stage will undergo some minor changes...
-The Roulette Cylinder will stay as it is. The drops made it much harder and it's a very difficult obstacle to start a deadly combo.
-However, the Doorknob Grasper will be slightly modified to turn less. Probably back to the 25 version. Although it only eliminated one competitor, it threw off nearly everyone else and almost eliminated Lee and Brent (would've done so if it weren't for their iron grips).
-The third obstacle is bound to change. Cycling Road was a cool idea but they simply have to change it to keep things interesting. It didn't give anyone trouble and it was cool the first time but... its time for some fresh blood to make everyone feel a little less comfortable. I can almost see a One-Arm Bike (OUCH!!).
-The Ultimate Cliff Hanger will remain the same. By now people have been building models and practicing like crazy. The only difference is the three tough obstacles that come before, and I think if Lee hadn't had such a sloppy 1st Stage run he would've had a little more in him to make that jump. It's bound to be beaten in the next competition.
-The next 3 obstacles will stay exactly the same. There appear to be no major flaws or revisions needed, so why change them?
FINAL STAGE:
-Totally Vertical Rampu Graspa!
How will everyone do? Who will compete? How many will clear the first stage?
Alright so I'm going to divide this into 5 parts: The Sillies, The Americans (provided they compete), The Usual Suspects, The Shin Sei and The All-Stars.
THE SILLIES:
-Aoki will touch the first step.
-Hang Glider will make the second obstacle.
-Kuramochi will fall on the step slider. Sorry but his SASUKE 26 run was a miracle. I think if he gets past the Step Slider, and the second obstacle does not require leg strength specifically, he might, MIGHT have a shot at beating the Rolling Escargot. But again, that's a stretch. And even if he beats that we all know he'll dive head-first into the water below the Jumping Spider
-Shinya will clear the first stage. This guy trains a lot and the Rolling Escargot was nasty enough to take out a lot of good guys. He actually has somewhat of a model of this (I think) So I could see him putting that hard work into a First Stage clear.
-If Omori returns, he'll make the Escargot. And then he will fall.
-Mr. Narcissist will do another funny dance. And then he will fall on the Step Slider.
THE AMERICANS (assuming only the top 5 from Japan are invited back):
-Travis put up a good showing in 26. If he can fix his technique on the Balance Tank and get over some nerves that will surely follow him, he could pass the Second Stage. I see him getting to Stage 3, and provided that he trains on David's obstacles he could have a shot. However when it comes to the 3rd Stage it becomes about experience and I could see him fail the RC + DG combo.
-Paul also did quite well, and considering he was the first competitor on both the First and Second stages to clear, he pulled off quite a feat. I actually think his undoing in the 3rd Stage last time was simply because he didn't really know what to expect from the turning of the doorknobs on the DG, and the intensity of the turn caught him by surprise. Provided that he gets a higher number and is not the first to clear, he'll have a better shot and maybe even make it to the UCH.
-Brian got very unlucky on the Roulette Cylinder. As I look back at the show I see that it wasn't really because he was so fatigued, but because he made a minute slip that threw his arms at the bottom of the RC's spokes. He took a while on the obstacle, but I think it was him pacing himself for the doorknobs and not because he just flamed out as soon as he grabbed the obstacle. When he slipped, his arms were put in a position that was hard to recover from, and when he tried to throw himself back up after dangling for a while THEN he flamed out and had no choice but to concede. He crushed the First Stage so it's a given to me that he'll pass that, and he's only improved on the Second Stage so I definitely see him at the Third Stage again. If he can pass the deadly combo, I think he'll make it and only make it to the UCH.
-Brent made it to the UCH last time. On his first attempt. He crushed the first two stages and survived some slip-ups in the Third Stage. If he could make it all the way to the UCH under those conditions, and he practices those CH skills, he may just be able to clear it. He doesn't have any SASUKE history so it's hard to make any solid predictions.
-We all saw David's UCH video. And pretty much all of ANW. Oh and SASUKE!! The guy wasted the first two stages and made the RC and DG look like a child's jungle gym. He put his hand in the wrong place when he made the transition to the 4th ledge, and admittedly ran out of grip... but if he returns for 27 I know he'll beat this one. Again, the only bit that worries me is the damned 5th ledge. I just don't see how one (after all the other obstacles and stages from earlier in the day) could make that jump, and make the next jump. But I predict David will show us all how.
THE USUAL SUSPECTS:
-Kongu had a comparatively bad result in SASUKE 26. He approached the RE wrong, and I am sure he or someone else will have told him his mistake by then. Because of his excellent record (and SASUKE 25 result) I see him in the Third Stage again. This guy's got a heck of a grip so I couldn't see him failing before the UCH. However, I think the UCH is exactly where he'll fail. I don't quite see any reason why, other than the fact that this is a murderous obstacle that's already proven it takes more than grip and skill to beat it. It takes rigorous practice and... well actually we can't really say anything because the dang thing hasn't been CLEARED.
-Okuyama can proven time and time again that age is just a number. This man has incredible fitness and stamina and athletic abilities in general, and has consistently made it to Stage 3+ since SASUKE 22. I honestly don't see him failing anywhere BEFORE the Third Stage because of this, and considering just how much he improved on the UCH since last time (though that could've been the fault of the weather and Floating Boards disaster) he is a contender to beat it in my eyes. From what I've seen, he's got the strength to beat the Jumping Rings and Bungee Rope Junction Thing... but then we get to this dreaded Flying Bar. I have no idea what to expect from this obstacle, and honestly, I don't think anyone has any idea either. Usually in SASUKE we get one or two competitions where someone makes it to the last S3 obstacle to be ensnared... I think Okuyama will be this man and will fall victim to the Flying Bar.
-Lee is a beast. Period. He changed A LOT physically between 25 and 26 and I have a feeling (him being a SASUKE super fan) he will beat his foe the UCH this time. In fact, I could see him (if anyone) making the final stage, but I'm going to play it safe and call his grim reaper the Flying Bar. I just feel like it's a box of disaster waiting to be opened and will claim at least 3 hopefuls (much like the Pipe Slider did in its early age). I think if he can clear that, he will finally get to test his improved rope climbing skills on the new Final Stage. Overall I think he is the favorite to win it all out of everyone in this Kanzen Renewal Era.
SHIN SEDAI (under the assumption they all compete):
Sato Jun didn't compete last time around. However, he's consistently gotten better and better with each showing. In fact, he went from being utterly PWN'ed by the Salmon Ladder to being the FIRST to attempt and CLEAR the renewed Double Salmon Ladder- I smell progress!!! However there's one little obstacle that worries me for him- the one that he didn't have the chance to test at 26: The Rolling Escargot! So unless he exceeds my expectations again- I see him falling right there.
Tajima is someone everyone has to feel a little sorry for... that fail in SASUKE 24 was probably the nastiest death since Yamada's platform fall in SASUKE 6. And THAT sucked to watch. This guy is really strong. REALLY strong. Like only upper body on the Spider Flip strong! Although he failed the Jumping Spider in 26, he shared a fate with many others high-class competitors. I can see him clearing the First Stage again. But that's all I can really predict. The guy is so darn unpredictable that I can't put a finger on where his true strengths and weaknesses are... so I'm gonna just say that he'll fail somewhere after the First Stage. Unless he's in a mental block that can't get him past the new First Stage obstacle: the Ring Swing.
Other 3 Shin Sedai later...
What obstacles will return, what obstacles will get the boot, and what new obstacles will there be?
STAGE ONE: Overall I think Stage 1 will be made more difficult.
-I think the Step Slider will stay, however I think one step will be added to up the challenge.
-On the other hand, I think the Hazard Swing will go down as a "one time" obstacle and be replaced by something else (likely something like the Log Grip or a Barrel Climb).
-The Rolling Escargot is there to stay, however more people will clear this time because people will have had time to build their own and train specifically for that.
-The Jumping Spider will stay, probably the same exact model as last time.
-Half-Pipe Attack is there to stay. It did a fine job picking off hopeful contenders and remains a fun obstacle to watch people attempt.
-The Soritatsu Kabe will remain untouched. It's done its damage in the last era of SASUKE and because it's iconic it's not going anywhere.
-The Giant Swing will be slightly modified or replaced. Second to last obstacles are made to use up time and make people fail. Only 2 or 3 people lost so much time that they lost because of this obstacle and only one person (as far as we know) actually failed it. I think the Slider Jump is a likely return.
-The Rope Ladder will not leave. Nor will the Tarzan Rope. Or the little bridge.
STAGE TWO:
-For the most part, this stage is going to stay exactly the same.
-The Slider Drop will stay. It seems to me like they've run out of ideas for the first obstacle of the 2nd Stage, whose purpose is to launch you onto the stage (dangerously of course).
-TRIPER SARMON RADDER lol just kidding. Double is hard enough, and it does a fine job of taking stamina and energy out of contenders.
-The Unstable Bridge hasn't really taken anyone out recently... so I could totally see it being made harder but... nah. It's gonna stay untouched.
-The Balance Tank will stay as it is. The modified rope makes it a bit easier, but it remains a tough and tricky obstacle to perform after the last combo regardless.
-The Metal Spin did it's job by eliminating a key contender in SASUKE 26... not being changed.
-Wall Lift = Wall Lift
STAGE THREE:
-This stage will undergo some minor changes...
-The Roulette Cylinder will stay as it is. The drops made it much harder and it's a very difficult obstacle to start a deadly combo.
-However, the Doorknob Grasper will be slightly modified to turn less. Probably back to the 25 version. Although it only eliminated one competitor, it threw off nearly everyone else and almost eliminated Lee and Brent (would've done so if it weren't for their iron grips).
-The third obstacle is bound to change. Cycling Road was a cool idea but they simply have to change it to keep things interesting. It didn't give anyone trouble and it was cool the first time but... its time for some fresh blood to make everyone feel a little less comfortable. I can almost see a One-Arm Bike (OUCH!!).
-The Ultimate Cliff Hanger will remain the same. By now people have been building models and practicing like crazy. The only difference is the three tough obstacles that come before, and I think if Lee hadn't had such a sloppy 1st Stage run he would've had a little more in him to make that jump. It's bound to be beaten in the next competition.
-The next 3 obstacles will stay exactly the same. There appear to be no major flaws or revisions needed, so why change them?
FINAL STAGE:
-Totally Vertical Rampu Graspa!
How will everyone do? Who will compete? How many will clear the first stage?
Alright so I'm going to divide this into 5 parts: The Sillies, The Americans (provided they compete), The Usual Suspects, The Shin Sei and The All-Stars.
THE SILLIES:
-Aoki will touch the first step.
-Hang Glider will make the second obstacle.
-Kuramochi will fall on the step slider. Sorry but his SASUKE 26 run was a miracle. I think if he gets past the Step Slider, and the second obstacle does not require leg strength specifically, he might, MIGHT have a shot at beating the Rolling Escargot. But again, that's a stretch. And even if he beats that we all know he'll dive head-first into the water below the Jumping Spider
-Shinya will clear the first stage. This guy trains a lot and the Rolling Escargot was nasty enough to take out a lot of good guys. He actually has somewhat of a model of this (I think) So I could see him putting that hard work into a First Stage clear.
-If Omori returns, he'll make the Escargot. And then he will fall.
-Mr. Narcissist will do another funny dance. And then he will fall on the Step Slider.
THE AMERICANS (assuming only the top 5 from Japan are invited back):
-Travis put up a good showing in 26. If he can fix his technique on the Balance Tank and get over some nerves that will surely follow him, he could pass the Second Stage. I see him getting to Stage 3, and provided that he trains on David's obstacles he could have a shot. However when it comes to the 3rd Stage it becomes about experience and I could see him fail the RC + DG combo.
-Paul also did quite well, and considering he was the first competitor on both the First and Second stages to clear, he pulled off quite a feat. I actually think his undoing in the 3rd Stage last time was simply because he didn't really know what to expect from the turning of the doorknobs on the DG, and the intensity of the turn caught him by surprise. Provided that he gets a higher number and is not the first to clear, he'll have a better shot and maybe even make it to the UCH.
-Brian got very unlucky on the Roulette Cylinder. As I look back at the show I see that it wasn't really because he was so fatigued, but because he made a minute slip that threw his arms at the bottom of the RC's spokes. He took a while on the obstacle, but I think it was him pacing himself for the doorknobs and not because he just flamed out as soon as he grabbed the obstacle. When he slipped, his arms were put in a position that was hard to recover from, and when he tried to throw himself back up after dangling for a while THEN he flamed out and had no choice but to concede. He crushed the First Stage so it's a given to me that he'll pass that, and he's only improved on the Second Stage so I definitely see him at the Third Stage again. If he can pass the deadly combo, I think he'll make it and only make it to the UCH.
-Brent made it to the UCH last time. On his first attempt. He crushed the first two stages and survived some slip-ups in the Third Stage. If he could make it all the way to the UCH under those conditions, and he practices those CH skills, he may just be able to clear it. He doesn't have any SASUKE history so it's hard to make any solid predictions.
-We all saw David's UCH video. And pretty much all of ANW. Oh and SASUKE!! The guy wasted the first two stages and made the RC and DG look like a child's jungle gym. He put his hand in the wrong place when he made the transition to the 4th ledge, and admittedly ran out of grip... but if he returns for 27 I know he'll beat this one. Again, the only bit that worries me is the damned 5th ledge. I just don't see how one (after all the other obstacles and stages from earlier in the day) could make that jump, and make the next jump. But I predict David will show us all how.
THE USUAL SUSPECTS:
-Kongu had a comparatively bad result in SASUKE 26. He approached the RE wrong, and I am sure he or someone else will have told him his mistake by then. Because of his excellent record (and SASUKE 25 result) I see him in the Third Stage again. This guy's got a heck of a grip so I couldn't see him failing before the UCH. However, I think the UCH is exactly where he'll fail. I don't quite see any reason why, other than the fact that this is a murderous obstacle that's already proven it takes more than grip and skill to beat it. It takes rigorous practice and... well actually we can't really say anything because the dang thing hasn't been CLEARED.
-Okuyama can proven time and time again that age is just a number. This man has incredible fitness and stamina and athletic abilities in general, and has consistently made it to Stage 3+ since SASUKE 22. I honestly don't see him failing anywhere BEFORE the Third Stage because of this, and considering just how much he improved on the UCH since last time (though that could've been the fault of the weather and Floating Boards disaster) he is a contender to beat it in my eyes. From what I've seen, he's got the strength to beat the Jumping Rings and Bungee Rope Junction Thing... but then we get to this dreaded Flying Bar. I have no idea what to expect from this obstacle, and honestly, I don't think anyone has any idea either. Usually in SASUKE we get one or two competitions where someone makes it to the last S3 obstacle to be ensnared... I think Okuyama will be this man and will fall victim to the Flying Bar.
-Lee is a beast. Period. He changed A LOT physically between 25 and 26 and I have a feeling (him being a SASUKE super fan) he will beat his foe the UCH this time. In fact, I could see him (if anyone) making the final stage, but I'm going to play it safe and call his grim reaper the Flying Bar. I just feel like it's a box of disaster waiting to be opened and will claim at least 3 hopefuls (much like the Pipe Slider did in its early age). I think if he can clear that, he will finally get to test his improved rope climbing skills on the new Final Stage. Overall I think he is the favorite to win it all out of everyone in this Kanzen Renewal Era.
SHIN SEDAI (under the assumption they all compete):
Sato Jun didn't compete last time around. However, he's consistently gotten better and better with each showing. In fact, he went from being utterly PWN'ed by the Salmon Ladder to being the FIRST to attempt and CLEAR the renewed Double Salmon Ladder- I smell progress!!! However there's one little obstacle that worries me for him- the one that he didn't have the chance to test at 26: The Rolling Escargot! So unless he exceeds my expectations again- I see him falling right there.
Tajima is someone everyone has to feel a little sorry for... that fail in SASUKE 24 was probably the nastiest death since Yamada's platform fall in SASUKE 6. And THAT sucked to watch. This guy is really strong. REALLY strong. Like only upper body on the Spider Flip strong! Although he failed the Jumping Spider in 26, he shared a fate with many others high-class competitors. I can see him clearing the First Stage again. But that's all I can really predict. The guy is so darn unpredictable that I can't put a finger on where his true strengths and weaknesses are... so I'm gonna just say that he'll fail somewhere after the First Stage. Unless he's in a mental block that can't get him past the new First Stage obstacle: the Ring Swing.
Other 3 Shin Sedai later...