Preliminary Sasuke 22 Predictions

[lars072]

The only guys that have a chance to get to and beat stage 3 are Nagano, Takeda, Levi M, and Shunsuke Nagasaki if he competes at all. And Nagano is the BEST and how anyone can say otherwise is just crazy talk. Takeda isn't far behind but is the only all-star to have never made it to a final stage. Can't actually believe it when I hear that...

[Badalight]

You're insane, Bunpei still has a very high chance, he always was about Takeda's level, he just had abroken back that's all, he never went into a "downfall" like Shingo or Yamada.

Takahahi still has good chances if he learsn how to get coordinated. Shinji Kobayashi has always had good chances as long as he can do the jumping obstacles.

Washimi has always been a strong competitor, don't take that literally because he's lost on the salmon ladder twice, but I can see him in stage 3 at least.

Don't count out the other competitors...

Besides them we have the muscle park all-stars.

We have the Sasuke Trial winners (If they continue doing it)

Any upcomming ANC winners.

And of course any new competitors that come out of the blue and surprise us.

(Like Okuyama, by the way, you forgot about him aswell ^)

[Zorn]

It seems like only Nagano, Takeda, and Shiratori have high chances to do well. Yamamoto and Yamada might have a moderate chance of success.

[joemello]

Since we're doing All-Star handicapping:

-The 1st Stage isn't built for Yamada's success. It's built way too much for lower body strength and endurance, which is not a strong area for him. If he did the 3rd stage first, I'd think he'd have a better chance of making it to Stage 2.

-Conversely, Shiratori will always be a contender because Stage 1 is practically made for him. As long as he makes it past the Jumping Spider, he's almost always a Stage 2 shoo-in.

-I think Yamamoto's and Takeda's biggest obstacles to overcome are themselves. Takeda has never made it to the endgame and Yamamoto has had the tendency to have Fun Ways To Lose, and after awhile, that starts to get in your head. While Yamamoto's shoulder could cause problems in later stages, the key for them is psychology.

[Zorn]

whoa wait, yamamoto still has shoulder problems?

[arsenette]

Nov 8, 2008 2:00:04 GMT -5 Zorn said:

whoa wait, yamamoto still has shoulder problems?

You don't really recover from multiple dislocations and a break.

[RiderLeangle]

I guess that surgery he had didn't help did it?

[joemello]

Well, I'm sure he's recovered enough to do normal activities without pain, but SASUKE is far from normal.

Daisuke Nakata's prior injuries will also be a factor, magnified more due to the fact that his upper body strength was lackluster to begin with. I honestly don't see him ever getting past the Salmon Ladder.

[Zorn]

Well i hope yamamoto does alright, it would suck for him to dislocate it again and then be out of the competition for good, but hopefully that doesn't happen
i wonder what will become of nakata?

[arsenette]

Nakata is doing better than he has in the past. Unfortunately this is going to be his life. He doesn't know when he's going to have his hadns lock up like that so he tries his best to keep fit and keep working with his hands to make them stronger. Hard to do since it's a nerve injury.

Yamamoto.. yeah it would suck for it to dislocate again though that might not be his problem. I've had mine dislocate hundreds of times.. it's something you get used to. He broke his (just like Takeda did).. Lord knows how he deals with that over time. Depends on the severity and what angle he broke it in. Doesn't seem to be coming out though unlike Takeda who wraps himself like a mummy to make sure that sucker doesn't come out. I worry about Takeda more than I do Yamamoto when it comes to shoulders.

[obakemono]

Nakata won't pass the Salmon Ladder. It'd suck for him to stop competing again, but it'd suck even more to see him fail there year after year.

[davidyko]

Yeah, it'd be him and the Globe Grasp all over again (consecutive fails in 9, 10, and 11)...except back then he had the possibility of improving his grip strength, now he doesn't.

As for Takeda v. Yamamoto's shoulders...undoubtedly Takeda's never had sudden dislocations during Sasuke à la Yamamoto in 7, etc...but nevertheless I think it's had a big impact on his performance in the Third Stage. He seems to run out of steam quite often (haha, try every Third Stage he's been in...)

[bigblind168]

Nov 8, 2008 16:41:55 GMT -5 davidyko said:

Yeah, it'd be him and the Globe Grasp all over again (consecutive fails in 9, 10, and 11)...except back then he had the possibility of improving his grip strength, now he doesn't.

As for Takeda v. Yamamoto's shoulders...undoubtedly Takeda's never had sudden dislocations during Sasuke à la Yamamoto in 7, etc...but nevertheless I think it's had a big impact on his performance in the Third Stage. He seems to run out of steam quite often (haha, try every Third Stage he's been in...)

Well in SASUKE 21, he did the first stage twice and the second stage twice, then stage 3

so 5 stages in 1 day...

[RiderLeangle]

I don't recall Takeda losing steam too often, Usually hes been unable to do the jump in the Pipe Slider.

[Zorn]

I think he lost steam one time in sasuke 8 and that was his first time attempting the third stage.

[joemello]

Nov 8, 2008 17:59:22 GMT -5 bigblind168 said:

Well in SASUKE 21, he did the first stage twice and the second stage twice, then stage 3

Wait, what?

[lars072]

Nov 9, 2008 0:03:08 GMT -5 joemello said:

Nov 8, 2008 17:59:22 GMT -5 bigblind168 said:

Well in SASUKE 21, he did the first stage twice and the second stage twice, then stage 3

Wait, what?

I second that. Where did you get that info? first time Ive heard that.

[davidyko]

Well, perhaps not EVERY time Takeda's failed he's ran out of steam, but perhaps a better point that I was trying to make was that it did affect his performance. I don't know how big of an effect his shoulder has on the Pipe Slider jump, but certainly most of his failures from 13-16 can be blamed mostly on his shoulder (three Cliff Hanger fails, and running out of steam at the Devil's Swing/Pipe Slider). Come to think of it, same with Yamamoto, so now I dunno what I'm saying. I guess now it's just a question of to what extent will these injuries hinder these two All-Stars.

And yeah, rumor has it that Takeda did the first two stages twice. I'd also like to know why though.

[Zorn]

Where did you hear the rumor?

[arsenette]

They heard it from me though I shouldn't have said anything I was given confidential information in terms of what happened in Sasuke 21 and I blabbed about it because I got so excited. Long story short it was a technical issue in Stage 2 and he had to redo it. Similar to Nagano having to redo Stage 1 in Sasuke 17. I confused the 2 and thought Takeda did stage 1 twice but I was incorrect. He did stage 2 twice in Sasuke 21.

That's the most I'll say about it