|
Post by bigblind168 on Nov 9, 2008 16:45:12 GMT -5
Just a few things ive noticed every for tournies
#4. Akiyama wins #8: kane looses 2.5M (i think it was) #12:Nagano looses bu .11sec
Now see a pattern?
in #8 it was raining and kane didnt use his feet to climb, is he used his feet, he could of won
#12: nagano took 2 .1 pauses on the spider climb, if he didnt take that break, he would of won
#16: no final stage but because of that, 17=win
so there should maybe be 3 sasuke winners? maybe, w/o some mental/physical errors, SASUKE might have 3 winners
anyway, your thoughts on this? Any other patterns you've seen?
|
|
|
Post by RiderLeangle on Nov 9, 2008 18:46:15 GMT -5
Yamada almost won in 3 too, don't forget that (even if I don't like Yamada, he did good on the final stage that time). But that the thing about those tournaments, they were near misses, its too late for them to matter.
|
|
|
Post by bigblind168 on Nov 9, 2008 19:02:12 GMT -5
yeh i no they were near misses
all im syaing is about every 4th tourny, someone should have won
|
|
scnoi1217
Administrator
Retired Staff
Ummm...not sure what to say here...
Posts: 3,595
Staff Member
|
Post by scnoi1217 on Nov 9, 2008 20:35:16 GMT -5
Well I guess you could count those. On those same lines, there was 1 finalist in Sasuke 4, 2 in 8, and 3 in 12. Thus, there should have been 4 finalists in 16 right? Well not quite.
There's also a very weird 6th tournament pattern where every 6 tournaments someone fails, but doesn't hit the water, and usually that failure has a big impact on the competition. For example: Sasuke 6 - Katsumi Yamada falls off the side of the landing mat after the Pipe Slider Sasuke 12 - Katsumi Yamada is disqualified for wearing gloves on the Spider Walk Sasuke 18 - Makoto Nagano grabs the top of the Cliffhanger, thus disqualifying himself.
|
|
joemello
Komiya Rie
#1 Unlimited curmudgeon
Posts: 515
|
Post by joemello on Nov 9, 2008 23:34:54 GMT -5
Sasuke 6 - Katsumi Yamada falls off the side of the landing mat after the Pipe Slider That one always makes me cringe when I see it. It's not that he lands on the dirt, it's that he lands ON HIS BACK on the dirt. I thought Shingo had a short but established pattern of getting to a certain point during during certain times of the year, but I'm too tired to figure it out.
|
|
|
Post by RiderLeangle on Nov 9, 2008 23:38:01 GMT -5
I think that pattern is a bit off, there was no final stage in 21.
|
|
joemello
Komiya Rie
#1 Unlimited curmudgeon
Posts: 515
|
Post by joemello on Nov 10, 2008 0:03:13 GMT -5
21 is neither divisible by 4 nor 6
Also, if you mean 20, a) there' nothing saying the pattern is still being sustained, and 2) try telling me with a straight face that Nagano falling off a skateboard isn't an abnormal way to be eliminated.
|
|
|
Post by bigblind168 on Nov 10, 2008 0:04:46 GMT -5
mostky cuz evens cant go into odd numbers
simple division
|
|
scnoi1217
Administrator
Retired Staff
Ummm...not sure what to say here...
Posts: 3,595
Staff Member
|
Post by scnoi1217 on Nov 10, 2008 0:22:32 GMT -5
Shingo used to have a bad streak where every even numbered tournament, he would do really bad, like fail somewhere in the 1st Stage. This happened in Sasuke 4, 6, 8, and 10 where he would alternate between 1st Stage defeats and deep 3rd Stage/Final Stage runs.
|
|
|
Post by RiderLeangle on Nov 10, 2008 1:24:08 GMT -5
For those saying I'm wrong about 21, Whats 17 + 4?
|
|
|
Post by Captain Obvious on Nov 10, 2008 4:27:15 GMT -5
It's easier to consider what I like to call The Five Ages of Sasuke. Warning, this is a big block of text. I've been working on it a while, and if you find errors, let me know, but it sums up my opinions pretty nicely and provides a bit of a history lesson /slash/ trip through memory lane.
The First Age -- Tournaments 1 through 4 Ah yes, this first age is quite clear. The first version of the Final Stage is the icon of this age. There's not a whole lot more to say, but that the defeat of the Final Stage by Kazuhiko Akiyama led to...
The Second Age -- Tournaments 5 through 8 This age begin with a paradigm shift for what would be required to defeat the course again. The introduction of the Jump Hang and Warped Wall served as a very clear message. In addition, redesigns of the first half of the second stage began and settled into the familiar Chain Reaction and final Spider Walk obstacles. The Third Stage included the introduction of the Body Prop, a redesign of the Cliff Hanger, and the increase of the Pipe Slider dismount. This displayed a new concept of the Third Stage as primarily a test of upper body strength. This age started with few First Stage Clears, after some readjusting led to two failures on the first half of the Final Stage, and the end of the participation of the Kosugi brothers after that whole rain fiasco. This downfall of rain was a real 'downer' after two competitors reached the Final Stage and led to...
The Third Age -- Tournaments 9 through 13 Just as competitors were stepping up the learning curve, another Third Stage re-design introduced the Rumbling Dice and Globe Grasp, not to mention the third version of the Cliff Hanger, making the Third Stage a full 5 obstacles of lactic acid torture. The First and Second Stages also felt some changes in this age, but mostly minor ones meant to keep things interesting. Competitor-wise, this age marks the rise of Makoto Nagano and the fall of Katsumi Yamada. Despite the changes, Nagano and Yamada make it to the Pipe Silder dimount in 9 and 10. Yamada would not return to the Third Stage, but Nagano would go on to the Final Stage in the next two tournaments, along with Bunpei Shiratori and Hiroyuki Asaoka in 12.
The 13th tournament is a bit of an oddity in the Five Ages of Sasuke. After 3 competitors reached the Final Stage in 12 with a very near-miss, you'd think the difficulty would be ramped up again. However, the only changes were the continued first obstacle change, the Cross Bridge, the Crooked Wall, and the Curtain Cling. It is as if they wanted someone to win. Nagano reaches the Final Stage a third time in a row but doesn't do as well as he did in 12, and this leads to...
The Fourth Age -- Tournaments 14 through 17 A drastic increase in difficulty... again. The First Stage keeps things interesting by constant changes while retaining the Rolling Log, Cross Bridge, Jump Hang, Warped Wall, Rope Climb pattern that worked to let through just the amount of competitors that was wanted. The Metal Spin served to bring back a sense of the Second Stage being more than a platform for the Spider Walk. In addition to this, the recoloration of the First Stage to black and theoccurance of competitions in the winter and summer led to a different feel of the course.
Most significantly, though, the Third Stage was increased in length by 3 obstacles, and the Jumping Bars, Climbing Bars, and Devil's Swing. The competitors stepped up to the challenge, partially due to the learning curve of the First Stage not really changing. The Third Stage became the nemesis to the regulars of the course, and the newly added obstacles 5-7 of the Third Stage did well to deny most of the competitors who would otherwise have a great chance at the Pipe Slider. Finally, the 17th tournament, held in Autumn, yielded 2 successes of the Third Stage and the second defeat of the Final Stage, this time by Makoto Nagano, leading to...
The Fifth Age -- Tournaments 18 through 21 A radical redesign of the First Stage and Second Stage and half of a radical redesign of the Third Stage as well as an as-of-yet unveiled Final Stage. The First Stage was colored red to mark this "New Sasuke" and wonder filled all. The course defeated, though with some missteps, and the 19th tournament unveiled what has since been an essentially-since-unchanged course. This age reflects The Second Age in essence and performance with a couple tournaments of radical failure of the First Stage and limited success on the Third Stage, though success in this age is moreso reflected in completion of the first half of the Third Stage.
The Sixth Age -- Are we there yet? So, where does this leave us? Chronologically, we are due for some level of change either in the next tournament or the one after. I do have a strong opinion on this, and I believe that the 22nd Tournament should best reflect the 13th in attitude. There are two things I believe the audience is ready for: something new in the First Stage and some kind of success on the Third Stage. As such, no, I don't think we're at the beginning of the Sixth Age, but rather we look forward to the end of the Fifth Age with hope and eagerness. The 21st Tournament has reignited our excitement, and we could really use one more tournament to close this, the Fifth Age of Sasuke.
edit: two typographical errors corrected
|
|
davidyko
Satō Jun
Occasional Translator
The Stuffed Owl
Posts: 743
|
Post by davidyko on Nov 10, 2008 6:02:43 GMT -5
Very nice, captainobvious. I agree with basically everything, though I think you might be missing a word in the last sentence of The Fifth Age, which is preventing me from making sense of it. I also agree that we are not yet due for the Sixth Age. We are certainly not due for a redesign of the Third Stage, as only two people have made it deep into the Third, but I think we are certainly due for a change in the First Stage; the First Stage has never gone more than 3 tournaments without a new obstacle. If many (comparatively) make it past the Cliffhanger in 22, I say it's time to ramp the Third up, and thus initiating the Sixth Age, but if not, then we can still afford to stay in the Fifth.
|
|
|
Post by obakemono on Nov 10, 2008 6:27:32 GMT -5
Moved to 21 forum to accommodate the dicussison.
It seems the course designers have done an excellent job, with 13 and 18 being the only notable hiccups. I'm eager to see what their plans are for the near future.
|
|
|
Post by RiderLeangle on Nov 10, 2008 12:37:06 GMT -5
I can see the Pole Maze and Sextuple Steps going soon. And we've already had a redesign from 20 to 21 but thats taking pity on the competitors, adding a notch at the end of the Final Ring and calling it the Gliding Ring, and giving bigger grips on the Ascending Climb and calling it Hang Climbing.
|
|
scnoi1217
Administrator
Retired Staff
Ummm...not sure what to say here...
Posts: 3,595
Staff Member
|
Post by scnoi1217 on Nov 10, 2008 12:42:27 GMT -5
Very, very good post Captain Obvious. Just a few opinions I would like to add to it:
In my opinion, Sasuke 13 was between ages. From the producers' standpoint, they wanted to make a harder course, that is why almost everything changed in the 1st Stage. From the new first obstacle, to the new Rolling Log and Jump Hang, and with the additions of the Cross Bridge and Crooked Wall, this First Stage was longer and harder than ever before. The feel of the First Stage was definitely different. Other changes included the Curtain Cling instead of the Globe Grasp, which 9 people attempted (and beat) in Sasuke 12. Obviously, the producers wanted to increase the difficulty, otherwise someone would win. However, Nagano made it to the Final Stage again, and they decided that the course difficulty needed to increase further. That's where the additions to the 3rd Stage in Sasuke 14 come into play.
Similarly to Sasuke 13, Sasuke 18 was between ages in my opinion. While the course dramatically changed from the previous tournament (Sasuke 17), it also was much easier in difficulty than future tournaments (Sasuke 19-Sasuke 21). Every obstacle in the 1st Stage was either replaced by a harder obstacle (Bungee Bridge -> Halfpipe Attack ; Great Wall -> Redesigned Warped Wall) or modified to become harder (Log Grip, Pole Maze, Jumping Spider, Flying Chute, not to mention time). In the later stages, obstacles were replaced by much harder ones. Obstacles that were too easy or really didn't fit were scraped and replaced by newer ones. In my opinion, Sasuke 19 started the age. That tournament was a sharp wake-up call to the competitors and fans that the course was hard, very hard. Compare that to Sasuke 18 where 3 people made it to the Shin-Cliffhanger. In our minds, once someone beat that, the Final Stage isn't much further.
So where does Sasuke go from here? Well, in my opinion the changes to the Sasuke 22 course will rival the changes made to the course after Sasuke 7. Notice that from Sasuke 5-7, the course stayed the same. Similarly, Sasuke 19-21 has had the same First Stage (with some subtle changes of course). Similarly to the changes from Sasuke 7 to 8, I think Sasuke 22's First Stage will probably have a new first obstacle and a new "bridge" obstacle, which for Sasuke 22 means the replacement of the Pole Maze. We'll be in this age until people start making it to the Final Stage. In my opinion, it will either be that one person makes it in Sasuke 22 or no one makes it in Sasuke 22 but 2 or more people make it in Sasuke 23. Age 6 won't start until after that.
|
|
joemello
Komiya Rie
#1 Unlimited curmudgeon
Posts: 515
|
Post by joemello on Nov 10, 2008 12:50:16 GMT -5
You forgot that 13 also had the 3-step Rolling Log and that Rope Jump Hang.
I always tracked generations of SASUKE by the color of the mats and large scale events. 1st gen 1-4 (mats are yellow and green, lots of wood obstacles) 2nd gen 5-7 (2 staple obstacles are introduced) 3rd gen 8-12 (All traces of the original Stage 1 are gone) 4th gen 13-17 (mats are black) 5th gen 18- (mats are red)
|
|
|
Post by talledega7 on Nov 10, 2008 13:18:09 GMT -5
As a History major, I must applaud captainobvious for his wonderfully planned out masters thesis and hope that he achieves that Doctorate in Sasuke he seems to be shooting for.
In truth (while captainobvious's Age division is very well thought out and presented), I've always thought it was more of a Four Era history in Sasuke:
Forest Era, Sasuke 1-4. Brown and very dark green seemed to be the early color scheme for the First Stage and Logs and Ropes were a major feature. Many people cleared the First Stage and each tournament had at least one person reach the Final Stage. But the addition of the Cliff Hanger in 4 shows that the Producers realize that having up to five finalists gives the impression that the overall course is an easy thing that just requires the correct technique on the Final Stage to defeat.
Green Era, Sasuke 5-12. Following Akiyama's win, the course was changed to green felt and the producers got serious about taking out competitors. It was made clear: Sasuke was not for the weak of will or those not willing to truly train for it. Akiyama experiences a slump, brought on by his early inability to defeat the Jump Hang. Numerous other competitors are defeated by the Warped Wall. But new competitors who would become the Sasuke All-Stars begin to emerge. Toshihiro Takeda in 5, Makoto Nagano in 7, and Bunpei Shiratori in 9 debut to compete alongside old favorites (and former finalists) Shingo Yamamoto and Katsumi Yamada. Akiyama finally clears the First Stage in 11 and Nagano reaches the Final Stage for the first time. Sasuke 12 features the debut of Koji Yamada, one of the most successful non-All Stars and fan favorite and long time competitor Hiroyuki Asaoka joins Nagano and Bunpei Shiratori in the Final Stage.
Black Era, Sasuke 13-17. With three men reaching the Final Stage in 12 (and Nagano almost beating it), the course color was changed again. New obstacles (Prism Tilt, Crooked Wall) were added to the course. When Nagano reached the Final Stage again, the producers started gameplanning against him, thus making mere mortals just cannon fodder for the First Stage. Butterfly Wall, Metal Spin, Jumping Bars/Climbing Bars, Devil's Swing. All added to beat him and anyone else along the way. Sasuke 16 features 16 men defeating the First Stage and eight of them reaching the Third. Bunpei Shiratori becomes the first man to reach the end of the Pipe Slider obstacle before failing. In 17, Shunsuke Nagasaki, a trampolinist and highly promising competitor beats the Cliff Hanger (which he had failed in the two previous tournaments) and goes on to beat the Third Stage entirely. Nagano joins him in the Final, barely breaking a sweat as he cruises through the Third Stage.
Red Era, Sasuke 18-present. Nagano's victory in 17 paves way for a massive course redesign. The Jumping Spider becomes the new Jump Hang and the addition of the Salmon Ladder makes the Second Stage (arguably the easiest of the four in terms of obstacle difficulty in previous years) a true challenge. After only two men beat the First Stage in 19 (and with the long awaited goal of defeating Makoto Nagano in the First achieved), the Producers possibly realized that having so few First Stage clears in a tad boring, so they keep the stage the same (with only cosmetic changes to a few obstacles) so the competitors can get used to it. With an American by the name of Levi Meeuwenberg showing in 20 that beating the First Stage (and doing it easily) is a most definite possibility, 9 competitors clear the First Stage in 21 and Nagano becomes the first person to make it to the end of the Third Stage, which had previously been insurmountable due to modifications to the Cliff Hanger, long the Third Stage's midpoint and arguably its toughest obstacle.
Future? Until someone reaches the Final Stage, the future will remain a question mark. With TV ratings failing and the apparent cancellation (with possibility of a revival) of sister show Kunoichi, the future of Sasuke past 2009 is unknown. If Nagano is unable to claim victory again, a new champion must emerge that makes fans want to tune in. New competitors continue to show up, but many fall short of the mark in terms of ability, conditioning, and all around desire. Should a champion emerge and ratings return to their past glory, Sasuke will earn its place in history.
|
|
|
Post by Captain Obvious on Nov 10, 2008 17:58:29 GMT -5
Actually, the Doctorate I'm going for is in math... but I digress.
It seems the "black sheep" (no color pun intended... yet) of the group is the 13th Tournament. There is some level of disagreement in this thread, however, about whether the First Stage changes and the Globe Grasp -> Curtain Cling change were meant to make the course significantly more difficult or more of a ploy to keep things fresh while giving Makoto Nagano a good shot at winning the whole thing.
That sounds like it could merit a thread of it's own, so I'll leave that discussion for another day. The Prism Tilt, however, I include as part of a series of changes to the very first obstacle that really doesn't apply. After all, that was part of a time when they changed the first obstacle 5 tournaments in a row.
There are two part of Talladega's post above that I find particularly interesting: (1) He groups 5-12 together (2) He mentions the need for a new champion to cheer for. I contend that we were at that same place in the 9th Tournament, and that the beginnings of the rise of the All-Stars are a decided marking point of Tournaments 9-12. Makoto Nagano finally defeated the Warped Wall and on to the Pipe Slider, while Bunpei showed the Jump Hang was even defeatable with one foot! In 11. Shingo, Takeda, Nagano, and even Akiyama reached the Third Stage, with Nagano finally getting to the Final Stage (which hadn't been done for 2 tournaments). In 12, Takeda and Shingo both go deep into the Third Stage, while two new heroes and a long-time favorite reach the Final Stage.
I'd say we're due for some new heroes, and we've been in this position before with good results.
|
|
|
Post by obakemono on Nov 10, 2008 18:41:35 GMT -5
Actually, the Doctorate I'm going for is in math... but I digress. Another mathematician, always good to see. Although it seems you're considerably further along than me. I'd agree with the five age model, with 9-12 being arguably the All-Stars' golden age. I agree that we're due for some new superstars. It's possible that non-diehard fans will get bored of Nagano dominating everything. However, people like Washimi (and apparently Okuyama) have failed to step up. The reasonable success of the Americans has kept things interesting, but a new ratings-grabbing champion would have to be Japanese. Miyazaki has potential but he's currently far from being able to seriously challenge the third stage.
|
|
|
Post by RiderLeangle on Nov 10, 2008 21:30:29 GMT -5
So who do we think are the candidates to be the new generation of heroes? Nagasaki Shunsuke was getting close but then hasn't competed since 19. Levi has potential but just failed the Salmon Ladder this time so we don't know if hes improved from last time, Washimi has problems with the Salmon Ladder, we don't really know what Okuyama is fully capable on because of the problem with the Stick Slider and I'm not sure if he competed in 21. Who else is in the running?
|
|