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Post by jfeathe on Oct 23, 2009 15:21:56 GMT -5
This is really tough to guess.
It's going to be really interesting to see what people will say.
I'm guessing 500-1000.
EDIT: the poll question is supposed to say "how many Kanzenseiha's would there be?"
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Post by rcplanes59 on Oct 23, 2009 15:34:55 GMT -5
Consider this - of 2300 attempts, 2 have cleared. (0.08%)
If 0.08% of 6,953,655,300 people cleared, then 6,046,656 people would clear.
Of course, that's far from accurate, as Nagano got 11 chances before earning his kanzenseiha. So I'm saying 100,000 to 1,000,000.
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Post by scopedknife on Oct 23, 2009 15:37:56 GMT -5
Well, mathematically, the likelihood thus far of SASUKE completion is between 0.8 and 0.9 percent. 6.9 billion times 0.8 is 552 million, but somehow I think far fewer than that would beat it, since most who take it on are far fitter than average, so I say 10,000 to 100,000
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Post by Oti on Oct 23, 2009 15:44:55 GMT -5
Around 100, maybe.
Average people don't have what it takes to beat the course. Pro athletes don't either. Olympians don't either.
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Post by bigblind168 on Oct 23, 2009 16:00:17 GMT -5
1000-10000
some russian dude might have it in him tht day, people just might have the luck tht day
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Post by yamfriend on Oct 23, 2009 16:14:10 GMT -5
Well, Nagano seems like a one-in-a-million guy fitness-wise, so I'd say 6 billion divided by 1 million=6,000 Kanzenseihas, though I do think it would still be drastically lower than this. Therefore, my answer is 500-1000. Final Stage Report: KANZENSEIHA!!! KANZENSEIHA!!!!! KANZENSEIHA! Kanzenseiha! Kanzenseiha. Kanzenseiha. Several hours later... Oh, what a surprise, a 558th Kanzenseiha. I'm overcome with disbelief.  |
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Post by SRW on Oct 23, 2009 19:18:46 GMT -5
I voted 500 - 1000 people would, although I was half tempted just to put 1 - NAGANO! coz he is the freaking don! lol
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Post by TCM on Oct 23, 2009 19:21:39 GMT -5
In my opinion, only 250-500 people would clear. Only those with the whole package (not many) would be able to clear the course.
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chackpop
David Campbell
25%
Posts: 1,543
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Post by chackpop on Oct 23, 2009 20:16:47 GMT -5
Remind yourself that you should exclude small children and most teenagers (13-17). Also, people older than 45 dont really have a great chance either. This leaves about 2 to 3 billion people. Then count all the overweight and unatheltic people (like doctors). 1.9 to 2.3 billion people remain. Thats only people who are ABLE to do well. Inexperience and lack of concentration will take out a good chunk of these people. Stage Three requires emmense sthreght. Something alot of people dont have.
100 people could achieve Kanzenseiha. COULD. They would have to be at Naganos level though
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joemello
Komiya Rie
#1 Unlimited curmudgeon
Posts: 515
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Post by joemello on Oct 23, 2009 20:59:28 GMT -5
Let's round this up to 7 billion, or 7,000 million. The top answer, 1 million, would yield a success rate of 14 thousandths of 1%.
The actual success rate of 86 thousandths of 1%, six times more than the above. I believe that's enough of a drop off to be accurate.
700k is 1 percent of 1 percent. You really think it's that hard?
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Post by yamfriend on Oct 23, 2009 21:53:22 GMT -5
You really think it's that hard? Yes. |
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Post by Oti on Oct 23, 2009 22:06:57 GMT -5
It's not that the course is that hard. It's the odds of being able to do everything perfectly that day that makes it a daunting task.
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Post by Badalight on Oct 24, 2009 1:46:51 GMT -5
I'd say a lot of people have potential to beat it all. There are a LOT of people in the world, a lot of US people training, all them Japanese people training. A lot of real fit and strong people.
I'd say around the 300k mark.
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FAMAS
Morikami Daisuke
Posts: 270
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Post by FAMAS on Oct 24, 2009 17:35:05 GMT -5
Only 1
Nagano lol
(oh first post by the way! I lurk no more!
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Post by yamfriend on Oct 24, 2009 18:12:01 GMT -5
I'd say a lot of people have potential to beat it all. There are a LOT of people in the world, a lot of US people training, all them Japanese people training. A lot of real fit and strong people. I'd say around the 300k mark. Keep in mind, though, that competitors like Nagano (who have the potential to beat the entire course) are nevertheless extremely difficult to come by. Even someone who may be considered one of the most athletic people in the world may still go out on something like the Jumping Spider not because of strength but instead because of luck, as others before me have pointed out. Other than luck, factors such as lack of experience, weather, and momentary slip-ups are even more prominent in the way of reducing the number of possible Kanzenseihas drastically. Although you're almost certainly right that a certain number of people may be able to beat the entire Sasuke course (though your estimate is still very high IMO), only a fraction of them (maybe about 20-30%?) would actually end up beating it due to these factors. Now that I think about this, it is probably higher than 500-1000, but not by probably by much...I'd have to say 1000-10000 now, though I'm not gonna bother retracting my previous vote. How lazy of me. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2009 19:26:21 GMT -5
Only 1 Nagano lol (oh first post by the way! I lurk no more! Congrats/Welcome! |
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Post by Badalight on Oct 24, 2009 21:50:06 GMT -5
6 billion people is a LOT of people... Take that into consideration. There are also a lot of people who were probably able to beat the course before but made mistakes (Yamada, Shunsuke, Yuuji, Takeda, etc)
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Post by Captain Obvious on Oct 24, 2009 22:35:18 GMT -5
I'd say you're greatly overestimating the number of people who would be able to complete the Shin Cliff Hanger having never seen it before.
Even the people who say "oh, it's easy" admit that it was very difficult until they got the technique. That technique and familiarity is a huge factor in obstacles like the Jumping Spider, Warped Wall, Salmon Ladder, Descending Globe Grasp, and Shin Cliff Hanger. Most people with the physical capacity to complete the course would lack the technique to use that capacity sufficiently well.
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Post by Badalight on Oct 24, 2009 23:19:13 GMT -5
Yeah, but 6 billion people is a LOT of people.
I'm sure there are a lot who can very well get it on their first try.
What about those people in poor countries who do nothing but manual labor all day? I'm sure some of those guys are pretty fit.
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Post by yamfriend on Oct 24, 2009 23:25:07 GMT -5
What about those people in poor countries who do nothing but manual labor all day? I'm sure some of those guys are pretty fit. True, but probably not all-around. After all, I don't know any labor jobs that require you to use your fingertips to support your body weight. Ever hear the expression " back-breaking labor"? Just making the assumption that this would make your back muscles extremely strong, but would leave other body muscles unaltered from those of normal people. |
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