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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 16, 2017 6:53:06 GMT -5
Disturbance #1 [Invest 92] (8am EDT)Current Info 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 175 miles north-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands have increased overnight. Although the system is producing wind gusts to near tropical-storm force, satellite imagery suggests that it lacks a well-defined center. Upper-level winds are forecast to remain marginally conducive for some additional development during the next day or so while the system moves generally northward. Conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development by Wednesday when the disturbance merges with a frontal system over the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...med...40 percent.Current Location / Info: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2Spaghetti Models on Tracking: www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/photos/a.10152387417227367.1073741825.88134562366/10155599580572367/?type=3&theater
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 17, 2017 9:45:10 GMT -5
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arsenette
Administrator
Rambling Rican
Posts: 16,617
Staff Member
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Post by arsenette on Oct 17, 2017 14:49:09 GMT -5
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 17, 2017 19:25:13 GMT -5
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 18, 2017 4:24:19 GMT -5
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 22, 2017 7:49:15 GMT -5
Western Caribbean is the place to watch starting one week from today. Looks like the CMC model makes a nice little storm and brings it through Cuba and up the east coast. Right now the only model disagreeing with a storm showing up now is the GFS but even the Euro is showing that something will form as conditions are becoming favorable. I'd imagine this will be our last named storm of the season, however with how many records this season has broken I wouldn't hold my breath.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 22, 2017 13:14:11 GMT -5
NHC finally picking up on it too: 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Slow development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Link: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 22, 2017 21:25:00 GMT -5
NHC finally picking up on it too: 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Slow development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Link: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5Confidence in a storm forming over the next 5 days is growing. Now up to 30% chance (still low).
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 23, 2017 1:06:06 GMT -5
Up to 40% chance over the next 5 days.
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 24, 2017 2:56:52 GMT -5
Disturbance #1 [Invest 93] (2am EDT)Current Info 1. An elongated low pressure system located near the northeastern coast of Nicaragua is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms over much of the northwestern and southwestern Caribbean Sea, and the adjacent coastal areas of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Further development, if any, should be slow to occur for the next couple of days due to interaction with the landmass of Central America. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive thereafter for some development to occur over the northwestern Caribbean Sea while the system moves slowly northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...med...50 percent.Current Location / Info: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 24, 2017 12:53:12 GMT -5
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 25, 2017 0:56:27 GMT -5
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arsenette
Administrator
Rambling Rican
Posts: 16,617
Staff Member
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Post by arsenette on Oct 26, 2017 18:40:02 GMT -5
Curious how that storm in the tropics will develop going right up the coast. Possible that it will impact me in South Jersey.. eerie that it on the anniversary of Sandy..
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 27, 2017 6:57:38 GMT -5
Spike in activity over the last 6 hours. Looks to be a TD before the day ends. Disturbance #1 [Invest 93] (8am EDT)Current Info 1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become more concentrated in association with a trough of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development today and Saturday, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Increasing upper-level winds will make conditions less favorable when the system moves north of Cuba and merges with a cold front on Sunday. Interests in the Cayman Islands and central and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. These rains are forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...med...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...med...60 percent.Current Location / Info: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2Satellite Rainbow: www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/imagery/rb-animated.gifIntensity Models: www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/93L_intensity_latest.pngSpaghetti Track Model #1: my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_93.gifSpaghetti Track Model #2: www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/93L_tracks_latest.png
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 27, 2017 18:00:15 GMT -5
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 28, 2017 4:03:10 GMT -5
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 28, 2017 13:44:42 GMT -5
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 29, 2017 13:01:38 GMT -5
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Oct 29, 2017 15:37:00 GMT -5
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Post by Ninja Warrior Ryan on Nov 3, 2017 20:33:38 GMT -5
Disturbance #1 (8pm EDT)Current Info 1. Satellite imagery indicates that a weak area of low pressure has formed about 1000 miles southeast of Bermuda, accompanied by disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This low could acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics as it moves to the north-northeast over the central Atlantic this weekend and early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.Current Location / Info: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
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